Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Jannsen should start to be honest, I hate wasting relievers when they can be starters.

Well JP Ricciardi wants him starting so you may get that wish. The only way he starts the year in the 'pen is if Chacin doesn't suck in Spring Training or BJ Ryan has to miss the start of the year.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Some quick stuff:

1) If Shannon Stewart makes the roster, I give up. Johnson's OPS against lefties in both his career and the past three years is about 100 points higher. Seems like another boneheaded roster decision we'd make.

2) Janssen will end up starting at least 25 games this year (even if BJ is out of the first month they'd be stupid to waste Janssen in the bullpen the whole year). And yes, he is a much better pitcher than Litsch, who will get lit up this year if he actually ends up starting.

3) One thing we seem to have this year is actual depth. We have three legit major league catchers (Zaun, Barajas and Thigpen), a ton of outfielders and a bunch of good infielders in the minors. At least if we get hit by injuries again we won't be as screwed as we were last year.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

A couple more things:

Although this topic is sparsely populated, if you do want to read a (hopefully) decent team preview, check out my dynasty page (link in my sig). The preview will continue to run until March 28th, as originally planned.

As well, after a lot of thinking, I've determined what I feel will be the optimal lineups for the Blue Jays this year against righties and lefties. Numbers in brackets represent (AVG/OBP/SLG) against the particular type of pitcher over the past three years. As a prenote, the odds of these making it into an actual game are zero (Vernon Wells hitting 7th the majority of the year won't be happening anytime soon), but if the Jays wanted to compete at their highest level, they should use these lineups.

vs RHP
1) SS David Eckstein (.306/.361/.382) - Without a good on-base presence at the top of their lineup, the Jays will not compete.
2) 1B Lyle Overbay (.279/.370/.464) - Failed at the #2 spot last year, but high on-base and good gap power will create a ton of RBI opportunities for the heart of the order.
3) RF Alex Rios (.286/.334/.463) - Best pure hitter on the team, and will only be getting better.
4) DH Frank Thomas (.261/.356/.493) - Struggles against righties, but is still a legitimate power threat at the cleanup spot.
5) LF Matt Stairs (.273/.357/.484) - Last year wasn't a fluke, since Stairs has hit well since 2003. May lose a little bat speed though. Him and Overbay could potentially swap places.
6) 3B Scott Rolen (.289/.356/.471) - Surprisingly solid against righties.
7) CF Vernon Wells (.254/.306/.446) - Just brutal against right handed pitching, but does have some pop.
8) 2B Aaron Hill (.281/.332/.397) - Doubles hitter would do well with two decent speed guys hitting in front of him.
9) C Gregg Zaun (.240/.339/.398) - Can get on base pretty well for the ninth hitter.

vs LHP
1) LF Reed Johnson (.305/.380/.451) - Actually hit lefties well last year even though his overall numbers were horrible.
2) 2B Aaron Hill (.305/.364/.463) - Can draw walks against lefties, and hits for a ton of power.
3) CF Vernon Wells (.331/.394/.547) - Amazing against southpaws, possible the best lefty-hitter the Jays have ever had.
4) DH Frank Thomas (.292/.424/.600) - On-base percentage is insane, a truly dominant cleanup hitter here.
5) RF Alex Rios (.293/.349/.495) - 43 doubles last year means that Thomas may clog basepaths, but if he switches with Hill, you just multiply that problem (since Hill had 47). Grabs more RBI opportunities here.
6) C Gregg Zaun (.302/.401/.451) - If Rod Barajas starts against lefties, John Gibbons should be fired on the spot...Zaun's OPS against southpaws is 125 points higher.
7) 3B Scott Rolen (.236/.325/.400) - Would be asked to just draw some walks.
8) 1B Lyle Overbay (.280/.307/.431) - Loses eye against lefties, but has a better average against them then he does against righties. Has some pop too.
9) SS John McDonald (.283/.333/.364) - OPS against lefties is only nine points lower than Eckstein's (.697 vs .706), and defense obviously makes up for that.

Unfortunately, those will never happen IRL. Knowing the Jays, I'd look for Shannon Stewart, Barajas and Eckstein to be playing against lefties. Gah I hate management so much.

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Theaub I dare you to use those lineups in MLB '08

EDIT: Oh, I heard Wilner on the FAN yesterday and he doesn't think Stewart will make it since the Jays are bringing up 12 pitchers so there's no room for him on the bench. The only way Stewart makes it onto the team is if Scutaro gets cut.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Theaub I dare you to use those lineups in MLB '08

EDIT: Oh, I heard Wilner on the FAN yesterday and he doesn't think Stewart will make it since the Jays are bringing up 12 pitchers so there's no room for him on the bench. The only way Stewart makes it onto the team is if Scutaro gets cut.

I'm debating whether to use my own lineups or the actual Jays one (since I won't be starting it until late March, when the rosters will come out, the Jays will probably have their opening day lineup ready to go). I guess it depends how bad the IRL one is heh.

Cutting Scutaro doesn't actually seem like a half-bad move, since you could slot Stairs at first and then Johnson/Stewart/whoever in the LF. Problem is that Stewart's arm might be the worst in baseball, and in an optimal scenario you'd like him to DH, something that's definitely not happening. Still Stewart is another decent bat against righties (.291/.338/.402...compared to .264/.325/.392 for Scutaro), so I actually wouldn't be against that move.

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

I was listening to Wilner tonight and apparently the signing of Shannon Stewart was more then just a "nice story" deal. Apparently the Jays are seriously considering the option of having Stewart replacing Reed Johnson. (IMO, this would be a stupid decision as Stewart is mr. Noodle Arm now) They believe Stewart has a better bat and they're willing to sacrifice defense for better hitting.

If Stewart makes the club the Jays would be able to release Johnson before opening day and only pay 1/5th of his contract so it wouldn't be a huge hit financially.

I'm very conflicted about this, what do you guys think?

[jerk]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Are u kidding me?! As much as i liked shannon when he was a jay, there is no way he should take Reed's spot. If this happens i'll be left scratching my head.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

...

I ****ing hate this team. I should become a Rays fan.

Let's even look at last year, which was the worst of Johnson's career.

Johnson against lefties: .325/.381/.532
Stewart against lefties: .269/.333/.365

This. Does. Not. Make. Sense. This is comparable to cutting David Eckstein to keep John McDonald, if their defensive abilities were reversed.

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Theaub, yeah that's my feeling too. Hopefully Johnson outplays Stewart to the point that he wins out or this'll be one of the big blunder moves of the JP regime.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

On a good note, apparently Toronto has become nationally relevant. Not only do we get two spring training games on ESPN, but the Rogers Centre will host the of TBS' Sunday MLB schedule.

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Anybody in the Toronto area should watch the Jays spring training game tomorrow because it might be the last time you ever see a game on City TV. Yes you read that right. Apparently Rogers, in their infinite wisdom decided to put a ST game on that channel. Gord Martineau will handle the PBP and their sports guy something Burrill will be doing the colour.

This has disaster written all over it.

[theaub]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Went to the Joe Carter signing today at Frozen Pond. I've met him numerous times (actually stayed in the hotel room across from him when he was inducted into the Canadian Baseball HOF), and he's a very nice guy.

Also I want to watch the game tomorrow just to see it crash and burn so horribly.

[Spear]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Oh man, that CityTV broadcast was brutal. At least it was good to see some baseball again. Other than the two final games of the spring, this is all we get? I wish they'd have more games. However its probably still more than last year (I think we only got to see one game?).

[SPTO]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Anyone else worried about the lack of hitting so far this spring? I know it's only Spring Training but this was exactly the problem that plagued the team last year.

At least the pitching is looking very good except for Jesse Litsch. It looks like he'll be going to AAA.

[Spear]

Re: Your 2008 Toronto Blue Jays!

Lack of offense!?!?! Eckstein hit a grand slam today!

I don't think we should be worried this early as its only Spring Training. But I do think Vernon's success at the plate will reflect the rest of the teams.