Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

[SwaggerCoach]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

Okay, after lowering potentials across the board, I ran a 5 season simulation.

- 28 game schedule (I don't think this impacts progression)
- No team chemistry/roles
- I lowered top 10 draft prospects' potential in each class (left a few gems)
- I just took a look at # of players above 90 and 80 overall, the MVP, who won the championship each year, and then after 5 years who had biggest leaps in progression.

Note: #s in parentheses indicate the # of computer generated players responsible for that year

SEASON ONE
90+ Players: 9
80+ Players: 36
MVP: Lebron James
Champion: Heat over Mavericks


SEASON TWO
90+ Players: 9
80+ Players: 44 (1)
MVP: Lebron James
Champion: Heat over Mavericks


SEASON THREE
90+ Players: 6
80+ Players: 44 (2)
MVP: Derrick Rose
Champion: Heat over Timberwolves


SEASON FOUR
90+ Players: 12
80+ Players: 48 (9)
MVP: Lebron James (with the Spurs)
Champion: 76ers over Timberwolves


SEASON FIVE
90+ Players: 12
80+ Players: 59 (11)
MVP: Tyreke Evans
Champion: Pacers over Kings

Players with biggest leaps in progression:
NAME/OVERALL SEASON 1 --> OVERALL SEASON 5/ORIGINAL POTENTIAL SEASON ONE

Darren Collison 75-->84/81 POT
Brandon Jennings 78-->91/87 POT
Evan Turner 71--> 84/85 POT
Patrick Patterson 72--> 86/82 POT
OJ Mayo 77--> 87/85 POT
Yi Jianlian 63--> 78/75 POT
JJ Hickson 74--> 84/80 POT
Eric Bledsoe 65--> 78/77 POT
Anthony Randolph 69--> 84/80 POT
DeMarcus Cousins 71--> 88/85 POT
Larry Sanders 65--> 79/78 POT
Robin Lopez 63--> 77/72 POT
Terrico White 63--> 73/70 POT
Paul George 74--> 89/85 POT
Ed Davis 66--> 83/80 POT
Ricky Rubio 67--> 82/82 POT
James Harden 74--> 89/84 POT
Javale McGee 70--> 85/79 POT
DeMar Derozan 69--> 83/80 POT
Stephen Curry 80--> 88/90 POT
John Wall 82--> 93/97 POT

Keep in mind the original season 1 potential was after I personally lowered the potential ratings across the board (unless I thought someone deserved their potential rating).

Apparently, this game is hellbent on seeing Yi Jianlian become a superstar. Even with just 75 potential, the guy ends up being 78 overall by season 5...a FIFTEEN ratings point increase. WTF?

Quick Summary:
- Even though I personally tweaked each draft class, I put too many solid players in the 70-78 ovl range. This led to many of them quickly getting into the 80+ pool within 1-2 years of progression. So this means that if you're going to let the CPU create your draft classes, you MUST lower Potential and Overall ratings for the majority of players in the class. Otherwise, your league will become quickly overpowered.
- Apparently lowering most guys potential by 5 points (some less, some more) didn't do much of anything...to see anything significant, I suggest lowering most current player potentials by 10-15 points. Besides the CPU generated rookies, mid-tier players in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year are growing WAY too quickly. Robin Lopez does NOT need to be 77 overall at the end of the 5th year.
- Although players regress in a natural fashion, not many of them retire each year, so the league constantly is putting in more players than it's taking out every year...this is another reason the players 90+ and 80+ grow year to year.
- Sadly, my simulation turned out no different than the OP's (CWSapp). This tells me that lowering potential by 5 isn't nearly enough...we're going to have to do AT LEAST 10 points per player to get the effect we're looking for.

Conclusion:
All in all, not the results I wanted to see, but I did get some feedback for creating more realistic seasons. In a nutshell:
- Lower all current NBA players potential by at least 10 points (except key stars/players you believe are accurate and don't mind shooting up the ratings)
- Lower all Overall and Potential ratings for each NBA draft class generated by CPU

These 2 things alone should give some different results...CW, if you could run your simulation again with these things in mind, I would freaking LOVE you.

Damn, I'm going to bed.

[raidertiger]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

Timberwolves? How the hell are they there WITHOUT rookies?

[cj54]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

You should also factor in that potential increases for young players as well. So if you give someone 85 potential next season they could be on 87. This screwed me over last year when guys i gave 80 potential increased to 89 in a few years which bumped up their contract demands.

Also i wouldn't be too concerned with dropping the ratings of older players unless you feel their overall rating should drop faster as they age.

One of the reasons i don't want to edit the roster too much is just in case the lockout ends and we get updated rosters, making us have to edit the entire roster again.

Still waiting on the Metta World Peace roster update

[Jukeman]

Okay, after lowering potentials across the board, I ran a 5 season simulation.

- 28 game schedule (I don't think this impacts progression)
- No team chemistry/roles
- I lowered top 10 draft prospects' potential in each class (left a few gems)
- I just took a look at # of players above 90 and 80 overall, the MVP, who won the championship each year, and then after 5 years who had biggest leaps in progression.

Note: #s in parentheses indicate the # of computer generated players responsible for that year

SEASON ONE
90+ Players: 9
80+ Players: 36
MVP: Lebron James
Champion: Heat over Mavericks


SEASON TWO
90+ Players: 9
80+ Players: 44 (1)
MVP: Lebron James
Champion: Heat over Mavericks


SEASON THREE
90+ Players: 6
80+ Players: 44 (2)
MVP: Derrick Rose
Champion: Heat over Timberwolves


SEASON FOUR
90+ Players: 12
80+ Players: 48 (9)
MVP: Lebron James (with the Spurs)
Champion: 76ers over Timberwolves


SEASON FIVE
90+ Players: 12
80+ Players: 59 (11)
MVP: Tyreke Evans
Champion: Pacers over Kings

Players with biggest leaps in progression:
NAME/OVERALL SEASON 1 --> OVERALL SEASON 5/ORIGINAL POTENTIAL SEASON ONE

Darren Collison 75-->84/81 POT
Brandon Jennings 78-->91/87 POT
Evan Turner 71--> 84/85 POT
Patrick Patterson 72--> 86/82 POT
OJ Mayo 77--> 87/85 POT
Yi Jianlian 63--> 78/75 POT
JJ Hickson 74--> 84/80 POT
Eric Bledsoe 65--> 78/77 POT
Anthony Randolph 69--> 84/80 POT
DeMarcus Cousins 71--> 88/85 POT
Larry Sanders 65--> 79/78 POT
Robin Lopez 63--> 77/72 POT
Terrico White 63--> 73/70 POT
Paul George 74--> 89/85 POT
Ed Davis 66--> 83/80 POT
Ricky Rubio 67--> 82/82 POT
James Harden 74--> 89/84 POT
Javale McGee 70--> 85/79 POT
DeMar Derozan 69--> 83/80 POT
Stephen Curry 80--> 88/90 POT
John Wall 82--> 93/97 POT

Keep in mind the original season 1 potential was after I personally lowered the potential ratings across the board (unless I thought someone deserved their potential rating).

Apparently, this game is hellbent on seeing Yi Jianlian become a superstar. Even with just 75 potential, the guy ends up being 78 overall by season 5...a FIFTEEN ratings point increase. WTF?

Quick Summary:
- Even though I personally tweaked each draft class, I put too many solid players in the 70-78 ovl range. This led to many of them quickly getting into the 80+ pool within 1-2 years of progression. So this means that if you're going to let the CPU create your draft classes, you MUST lower Potential and Overall ratings for the majority of players in the class. Otherwise, your league will become quickly overpowered.
- Apparently lowering most guys potential by 5 points (some less, some more) didn't do much of anything...to see anything significant, I suggest lowering most current player potentials by 10-15 points. Besides the CPU generated rookies, mid-tier players in their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year are growing WAY too quickly. Robin Lopez does NOT need to be 77 overall at the end of the 5th year.
- Although players regress in a natural fashion, not many of them retire each year, so the league constantly is putting in more players than it's taking out every year...this is another reason the players 90+ and 80+ grow year to year.
- Sadly, my simulation turned out no different than the OP's (CWSapp). This tells me that lowering potential by 5 isn't nearly enough...we're going to have to do AT LEAST 10 points per player to get the effect we're looking for.

Conclusion:
All in all, not the results I wanted to see, but I did get some feedback for creating more realistic seasons. In a nutshell:
- Lower all current NBA players potential by at least 10 points (except key stars/players you believe are accurate and don't mind shooting up the ratings)
- Lower all Overall and Potential ratings for each NBA draft class generated by CPU

These 2 things alone should give some different results...CW, if you could run your simulation again with these things in mind, I would freaking LOVE you.

Damn, I'm going to bed.

I think I am going run a test using 99, 75, 50, 25 this weekend, this should give a me an idea of how low should I go.

The fact that Tmac is STILL a 97 pot (a guy who's been an elite player in the game for years that is currenly rated low) tells me things aren't updated..

For one, his trade value isn't high and two, he's not getting any better as a injury prone 32 year old.

He may not regress too much from what he is now IRL but the 97 isnt justified...


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[bfrombleacher]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

I feel like the 2K series gets just about everything right.....except player ratings. Its funny, as much as people complain about shooting, rebounding etc. ratings, for me potential has always been the worst. I love association mode but cant stand how the inflated potential ratings skew the player pool in as little as 4-5 years. I would LOVE to know how 2K determines the potential rating number for players. You see some guys who have been in the leage 3-4 years, whose in game ratings has barely changed, yet they still have potential in the 80's (OJ Mayo) he hasn;t gotten any better 2k!!!!

Just potential. I've been playing the game a lot and the ratings are fine (except LeBron's attributes. Call me a ***** but I seriously don't think his j is as good as the game makes it to be).

It's pretty hard to capture the progression of players though. Although I think more effort can be put in definitely. When players decline, all their ratings decline, which is not cool. Ray Allen's jumper, for instance, only gets better with age. Most bigs have a better post game as they age and most players don't lose a lot of strength.

Although the NBA is very dynamic and players improving is very hard to capture exactly, there is probably an average and a standard deviation of player improvement - overall and in specific categories. (And RNGs could probably emulate this in my opinion.)

[CWSapp757]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

@Pitfighter... the draft classes are coming along very well. I'm pleased with what I have so far. I like to throw little things in like brothers from the same college in the same draft (ala the Morris and Lopez brothers) and players who have talents that aren't necessarily common for a certain position (point guards that are exceptional rebounders or big men who can drain the three). I don't like to have those drafts where the lower ranked players are useless. With my drafts you might draft a big man in the second round with a 58 overall and terrible potential but a beast guarding the post. You're going to want to keep a spot for that guy on your roster. I work so much and stuff like this is my temporary escape so I hope other people enjoy it. I'll be done with the first draft class sometime today and the next three by Sunday night. The problem is getting these potential ratings on point for the default roster so that everything runs smoothly.

Speaking of that, I was thinking Swagger... even though we are on seperate systems maybe we can start a project so that we can get similar potential ratings for both of our rosters. That way, PS3 and 360 users can enjoy the same roster and we would have a chart to go by when (or if) the roster gets updated. If you're down or if anyone else wants to help out let me know. I have to clear my inbox so that I can get messages up here but anybody that wants to join in can hit me up at [email protected]

[Colts18]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

What's interesting is that for the older players, their potential seems to reflect exactly as good as they used to be.

Tracy McGrady is a perfect example. His potential is a freaking 97!!!

And just to think people on here believe 2K Insider is a Roster Guru. I am sure there are ratings that haven't been touched in years.

[CharliePrince]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

And just to think people on here believe 2K Insider is a Roster Guru. I am sure there are ratings that haven't been touched in years.

Potential doesn't dictate how high you become, just how much better they progress as well as preventing too high regressions at higher ages.

Okay guys, just lowered the potential across the board for everyone.

I ended up lowering probably 75% of the players in the game. 25% were either too low to bother with or I actually agreed with 2k's potential rating.

Most adjustments were 5 points lower...some 2-3...some 10...and even some rare ones up to 20.

What's interesting is that for the older players, their potential seems to reflect exactly as good as they used to be.

Tracy McGrady is a perfect example. His potential is a freaking 97!!! The only way that makes sense to me is if 2K is going off his highest rating at the peak of his career. So I dropped him to a 77 because I imagine he's going to be regressing quickly and he's obviously not getting any better.

I'm simulating the first 5 seasons now. Will post the results ASAP.

One question I would like to post to anyone who is panicking about POTENTIAL is have you ever actually gone more than 2 seasons in an Association? Take it from someone who had 4 associations going over 5 years each (longest being 8 years) in nba2k11 that POTENTIAL is not as big an issue as you ARE IMAGINING IT TO BE

so what if Tmac is 97 potential? what is his ovr?? get my drift?? if you actually play the game instead of imagining things you'd even see some Free Agents with "A" potential yet 50s in their OVR and UP there in Age (28 +yrs)

Potential is not the end all and be all, and even if you have someone with 99POT which I edit my "cornerstone rookie" (I do this for fun in my associations so I literally see how they progress), it takes a MINIMUM 3years for them to even hit mid 80sOVR provided you give them proper training/etc and were actually drafted top10, god help you if they were drafted later and starts off at mid60s ovr, it'll take them 5 years MINIMUM to be starter material REGARDLESS of their 99potential

Dwight Howard (who is 25) went from leading the league in rebounding to not even in the top 10 4 years later. Did he die?

I love the fact that people do regress, you can't expect Dwight Howard to lead the league in rebounds forever, he is 25.. so others will knock him off his perch so to speak, but what he will be if 2k12 holds up is the same as 2k11.. he will always be a force the Magic will build around him and you'll see him in the playoffs and maybe even Finals as the years go by, he'll always be "Superman" down there in ORL

[CWSapp757]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

I simulated 10 years in and with all due respect, potential is a big issue man (to me at least). I agree with you that old players like TMac with having a 97 potential isn't as big of an issue, but the potential of the younger players on the default roster causes the number of 80-99 players to practically double in the later years.

I'm not knocking your opinion or your view of the game but to me, the potential needs to be lowered for the majority of these players before I can really enjoy Association.

[RedSceptile]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

The problem is that you can't really accurately simulate player development. When I had 2K11 I found along with most others in 5-7 years the league is flooded with SuperStars. That can be a good thing but then when you have an over-abundance the realism starts to falter.

When I was making draft classes I tried to make them reflect real life as closely as possible. One year you might have a consensus number 1 pick and so on, then other years the draft is weak with a few solid role players. One aspect I also tried to replicate is guys who are late picks who can become SuperStars since 2K pretty much never makes any 2nd rounder/late first rounder with great potential but a somewhat bad skill set I tried duplicating that (for example an Athletic freak with an exceptionally high ceiling but poor skills that need to be honed).

What I usually do is take one of the good roster makers rosters like Rashidi's for instance and tweak potential a bit but the main thing that matters is as long as the individual attributes are good then I have no problem.

[SwaggerCoach]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

CW, I'm shooting you an email right now. I'd definitely be down to put our heads together to get these rosters right.

Yeah, the difficulty in determining a player's potential is that in real life, a player's progression isn't always linear.

Someone like Kevin Durant, for instance, came into the league, and has gotten better every season, and should continue to develop in a predictable fashion.

But a guy like Chris Bosh progressed differently...he came into the league as a rookie and put up 11 PPG, continuously improved until he dropped 24 PPG in 09...then last year with the heat, saw his production (and therefore his 2k rating) drop. So his OVERALL would look something like 73...74....76...77....79...82...86...80.

In association mode, the only way for a player to regress is due to old age. There's no progression patterns similar to Bosh. Everyone develops in a linear fashion.

So the only work around I see is to dramatically lower potential across the board so we at least see guys develop more slowly. If you don't touch potential at all, your association gets bogged down with too many superstars...which means teams will have their salary caps maxed out...which means stars will sit in free agency because no one can afford them.

[CharliePrince]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

I simulated 10 years in and with all due respect, potential is a big issue man (to me at least). I agree with you that old players like TMac with having a 97 potential isn't as big of an issue, but the potential of the younger players on the default roster causes the number of 80-99 players to practically double in the later years.

I'm not knocking your opinion or your view of the game but to me, the potential needs to be lowered for the majority of these players before I can really enjoy Association.

yeah, i've seen that too but let's be realistic here.. the number of 93+OVR players are not as bad as you make in your post even though you gave a huge range 80-99, people see 99 and will therefore think every team has at least 2 players in the 99ovr range which is far from the truth

hell.. to be honest there was only (1) 99ovr player in the entire roster in my 8year association, the "super-rookie" I made which ironically took 5 years at LEAST to develop into that 99ovr

I'm not going to waste anymore energy talking about a (to me) non-issue regarding potentials but what I do find fascinating..

Clippers, Raptors, because of their yearly high-draft picks will become BEASTS of a team in the later years (for nba2k11, not sure yet of 2k12), however the Raptors for some reason almost always sucks and the Clippers reign the West

I just find it funny how it's always those 2 teams seemingly that are polar opposites of each other regardless of how much "talent" is on their team

[CWSapp757]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

I think I was pretty clear and detailed in my earlier post. But like I said, I respect your opinion and we can agree to disagree. Its still all love my man.

And yes, you are absolutely right. I was looking at the rosters during one of my recent simulations and the Raptors had 6 players that were top 4 picks. They were beasting lol.

[antdoggydogg]

Re: Some info for those of you that like to go deep into your Association.....

<tt><tt>I did a few more simulations for those that requested it.

2011 - 2012 Season
90+ overall - 9
80+ overall - 36

Scorers
Lebron James - 31.0
Derrick Rose - 30.3
Kevin Durant - 29.2
Dwayne Wade - 29.0
Carmelo Anthony - 27.6
Amare Stoudemire - 27.6
Kobe Bryant - 26.6
Monta Ellis - 26.4
Dwight Howard - 25.2
Dirk Nowitzki - 25.0

Rebounds
Dwight Howard - 12.7
Kevin Love - 11.3
Blake Griffin - 11.2
Zach Randolph - 10.4
Tim Duncan - 10.3
Al Horford - 10.2
David Lee - 9.9
Pau Gasol - 9.6
Ben Wallace - 9.6
Dirk Nowitzki - 9.4

Assists
Rajon Rondo - 10.1
Jason Kidd - 9.5
Chris Paul - 7.9
Jose Calderon - 7.5
Steve Nash - 7.3
Darren Collison - 7.2
DJ Augustin - 7.1
Mike Conley - 7.0
Devin Harris - 6.8
Chauncey Billups - 6.7

MVP - Lebron James
NBA Champions - Dallas Mavericks
Finals MVP - Dirk Nowitzki

2012 - 2013 Season
Best Record - Miami Heat (67-15)
Worst Record - Minnesota Timberwolves (23-59)
MVP - Lebron James
NBA Champions - LA Lakers
Finals MVP - Kobe Bryant

2013- 2014 Season
Best Record - OKC Thunder (58-24)
Worst Record - Phoenix Suns (24-58)
MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA Champions - OKC Thunder
Finals MVP - Kevin Durant

2014 - 2015 Season
Best Record - OKC Thunder (64-17)
Worst Record - Phoenix Suns (23-58)
MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA Champions - LA Clippers
Finals MVP - Blake Griffin

2015 - 2016 Season
90+ players - 14
80+ players - 69
Best Record - OKC Thunder (61-21)
Worst Record - Milwaukee Bucks (23-59)
MVP - Russell Westbrook
NBA Champs - NY Knicks
Finals MVP - Lebron James

Totally forgot to record the stats for the league leaders. Ill do it for next year.

2016 - 2017
Scoring
Kevin Durant - 27.4
Stephen Curry - 23.8
Lebron James - 23.6
Russell Westbrook - 23.5
Derrick Rose - 23.4
John Wall - 22.3
Michael Beasley - 21.1
Dwayne Wade - 20.7
Carmelo Anthony - 20.5
Dwight Howard - 20.2

Rebounds
Dwight Howard - 12.4
Kevin Love - 11.9
Andrew Bynum - 10.6
Brook Lopez - 10.2
Preston Johnson - 10.2
Greg Monroe - 9.7
Dejuan Blair - 9.7
Javale McGee - 9.5
Blake Griffin - 9.4
Henry Lowry - 9.2

Assists
Rajon Rondo - 8.1
Jonny Flynn - 7.9
Brandon Jennings - 7.9
John Wall - 7.5
Derrick Rose - 7.3
Kyle Lowry - 6.9
Deron Williams - 6.9
Russell Westbrook - 6.9
Tyreke Evans - 6.6
Eric Bledsoe - 6.3

Best Record - OKC Thunder (61-21)
Worst Record - Detroit Pistons (24-58)
MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA Champs - Chicago Bulls
Finals MVP - Derrick Rose

2017-2018 Season
Best Record - OKC Thunder (62-20)
Worst Record - NO Hornets (27-55)
MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA Champs - Atlanta Hawks
Finals MVP - Blake Griffin

2018-2019 Season
Best Record - Atlanta Hawks (54-28)
Worst Record - Miami Heat (24-58)
MVP - Kevin Durant
NBA Champs - SA Spurs
Finals MVP - Lebron James

2019-2020
90+ overall - 23, 13 real players and 10 fake
80+ overall - 68, 28 real players and 40 fake

Scorers
Kevin Durant - 28.5
Lebron James - 24.7
Derrick Rose - 22.7
Tyreke Evans - 21.6
John Wall - 21.4
Sidney Bellamy - 21.1
Stephen Curry - 21.0
Russell Westbrook - 20.1
Brandon Jennings - 19.1
Tommy Geiger - 18.4

Rebounds
Bruce Porter - 11.7
Stan Lowe - 11.1
Anton Kolomak - 10.9
Greg Monroe - 10.6
Blake Griffin - 10.6
Clark Wilks - 10.5
Dwight Howard - 10.4
Tommy Geiger - 10.4
Kevin Love - 9.9
Erik Kersey - 9.8

Assists Rajon Rondo - 8.5
Russell Westbrook - 7.3
Ricky Rubio - 7.2
Brandon Jennings - 7.1
Ty Lawson - 6.9
Derrick Rose - 6.7
Harry Carson - 6.6
Eric Bledsoe - 6.5
Jrue Holiday - 6.4
Joey Myers - 6.4

Best Record - Milwaukee Bucks (57-25)
Worst Record - NY Knicks (19-63)
MVP - Brandon Jennings (19.1, 5.6, 7.1, 2.0 steals)
NBA Champs - Detroit Pistons
Finals MVP - Sidney Bellamy </tt></tt>

I have a question about these simulations, how many minutes are players like Dwight and Chris Paul averaging. This could most likely tell us why Dwight doesnt average many rebounds. Because if you look at my dynasty blog from 2k11 i'm getting very realistic numbers league wide, its all about minutes. Dwight should be averaging at least 36 minutes, and i'm sure we'd see realistic stats. That goes for all players. If you can let me know his minutes played averages in those seasons that would be helpful.

[Jukeman]

I have a question about these simulations, how many minutes are players like Dwight and Chris Paul averaging. This could most likely tell us why Dwight doesnt average many rebounds. Because if you look at my dynasty blog from 2k11 i'm getting very realistic numbers league wide, its all about minutes. Dwight should be averaging at least 36 minutes, and i'm sure we'd see realistic stats. That goes for all players. If you can let me know his minutes played averages in those seasons that would be helpful.

Good point on the minutes


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