Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

[elknavo]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

I've been talking about season mode this whole time. What were you trying to accomplish with lowering the pass ratings of Williams' teammates?

[kjjnesb]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

Maybe it's always been a placebo effect for me but I always felt like lowering the flashy pass tendency bumped my assist up while simming but its prob just my mind playing tricks on me lol.

[lkasprzak]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

its kinda sad, cause we will never see in our association next stockton, with 14-15apg :/

[slimm44]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

I have found that the passing ratings by default are too high for most players. I used Assist % (found on basketball-reference.com) as the stat to base this rating off of and the scale goes from 0-50%. Here is how I applied the scale:

Ast% Pass Rating
50+ 99
46.5 95
43 90
39.5 85
36 80
32.5 75
28.5 70
25 65
21 60
17.5 55
14 50
10.5 45
7 40
3.5 35
0 30

Also, I have found that the Take Shot Tendency controls how many shots per game a player takes during gameplay and during simulation. Touches controls how likely a play will be called for a certain player during gameplay but not how likely the player is to shoot. That is controlled by the Take Shot and "by location" shot tendencies. Here is the scale I used for the Take Shot tendency:

FGA Shot
22+==65
20-21 =60
18-19 =55
16-17 =50
14-15 =45
12,13 =40
10,11 =35
8,9===30
6,7===25
4,5===20
2,3===15

FGA are per 40 minutes.

This has gotten me these results in a sim I ran:

Assist %
Kidd 57.2 (35.4) 8.4APG (8.2)
Rondo 52.3 (47.1) 11.3APG (11.2)
Paul 37.3 (45.8) 9.4APG (9.8)
Harris 37.2 (38.2) 8.1APG (11.4)
Nash 36.3 (53.1) 10.2APG (11.4)

First number is Assist % in sim, number in parenthesis is what their Ast % was last year, followed by Ast per game in sim and last number in parenthesis is their Ast per game last season.

In a different sim, here are more complete stats I've gotten:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...zbEhDWUE#gid=0

The line of stats next to the player was their 2010 season averages and the line below their name is what the sim produced. The numbers aren't perfect, but they're not bad. Notice the minutes per game discrepancy. If the minutes would have been the same, I think the stats would have been even more similar.

[Colts18]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

The blocks issue is bad but it doesn't bother me as much because there's less blocks in the NBA than in years past, and they come in low numbers anyway. I do have a theory that a 99 BLK player might block more shots in simmed stats if you lowered the offensive ratings of the whole league but that would probably break more than it fixed.

Block rating matters as well as the Contest Shot Tendency. Also understand that you can reach even higher rates/averages if you have the editor and get those players above a 99 rating. The max last year was a 110 rating. I was able to get Dwight to his 2.8 BPG with no issue.

Same with steals and the "Play Passing Lanes" and "Attempts On Ball Steals" Tendencies.

[slimm44]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

Block rating matters as well as the Contest Shot Tendency. Also understand that you can reach even higher rates/averages if you have the editor and get those players above a 99 rating. The max last year was a 110 rating. I was able to get Dwight to his 2.8 BPG with no issue.

Same with steals and the "Play Passing Lanes" and "Attempts On Ball Steals" Tendencies.

The problem is, historically, players have averaged well over that amount and Howard, by Block%, isn't as good statistically as you might think. Here are the results from last year:

Block Pct
1. JaVale McGee-WAS 6.7
2. Serge Ibaka-OKC 6.5
3. Darko Milicic-MIN 6.3
4. Andrew Bogut-MIL 5.8
5. DeAndre Jordan-LAC 5.4
6. Andrew Bynum-LAL 5.4
7. Dwight Howard-ORL 4.9
8. Tim Duncan-SAS 4.8
9. Emeka Okafor-NOH 4.6
10. Taj Gibson-CHI 4.6

To get accurate stats (and the percentage of each stat is more accurate than the per game numbers because it doesn't factor in minutes played), you would have to give Javale McGee like a 155 rating to equate. What about guys like Mark Eaton or Manute Bol, if people wanted to create them? Those guys had career BLK% averages around 10%, twice what Howard has. Would you have to give them 220's?

Here is a list of the top 20 leaders in BLK% during a season:

Rank Player BLK% Season Tm
1. Manute Bol 10.81 1988-89 GSW
2. Manute Bol 10.81 1986-87 WSB
3. Manute Bol 10.64 1987-88 WSB
4. Manute Bol 10.62 1985-86 WSB
5. Alonzo Mourning 10.15 2005-06 MIA
6. Manute Bol 10.01 1989-90 GSW
7. Jim McIlvaine 9.92 1995-96 WSB
8. Manute Bol 9.79 1991-92 PHI
9. Manute Bol 9.62 1990-91 PHI
10. Jim McIlvaine 9.52 1996-97 SEA
11. Shawn Bradley 9.40 1995-96 TOT
12. Chris Andersen 9.28 2008-09 DEN
13. Mark Eaton 9.20 1982-83 UTA
14. Alonzo Mourning 8.95 2006-07 MIA
15. Shawn Bradley 8.86 1998-99 DAL
16. Dikembe Mutombo 8.81 1995-96 DEN
17. Mark Eaton 8.74 1984-85 UTA
18. Jim McIlvaine 8.59 1997-98 SEA
19. Theo Ratliff 8.56 2003-04 TOT
20. Andrei Kirilenko 8.54 2004-05 UTA

10 of those came in the past 20 years and if somebody wanted to make Mutombo from the 96 season achieve accurate block numbers, it's simply not possible, even with REDitor, which is a phenomal program. It's a sim-engine issue moreso than a roster issue even though both influence the results during simulations.

[elknavo]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

its kinda sad, cause we will never see in our association next stockton, with 14-15apg :/

Eh, we'll probably never see that again in the real NBA either. Pace has gone down league-wide since the '80's, and most teams shot hardly any threes. With the increased usage of the three point shot, FG% has dropped. Therefore less assists are available to go around. In today's league prime Stockton would probably get 11-12 APG.... so I'm no too worried about 14-15 APG, I just want to make sure the super-elite passers are at least hitting 9-10+.

[elknavo]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

I have found that the passing ratings by default are too high for most players. I used Assist % (found on basketball-reference.com) as the stat to base this rating off of and the scale goes from 0-50%. Here is how I applied the scale:

Ast% Pass Rating
50+ 99
46.5 95
43 90
39.5 85
36 80
32.5 75
28.5 70
25 65
21 60
17.5 55
14 50
10.5 45
7 40
3.5 35
0 30

I feel you are taking the right general approach in using advanced metric stats when available, however, there is definitely something you should know about Ast%. The way it's calculated on Basketball-Reference and other sites is NOT the same as 2k's version. In most places Ast% refers to the percentage of possessions in which a player makes an assist, EXCLUDING those in which he takes a shot- so normally, taking more or fewer shots should have no effect on Ast%. In 2k, Ast% refers to the percentage of possessions in which a player makes an assist, INCLUDING those where he takes a shot. So more shots cause your Ast% in 2k to go down. This explains why low-shot tendency PGs like Kidd and Rondo have Ast% stats in 2k that are far too high, and why higher shot tendency PGs like Paul and Nash are too low.


Also, I have found that the Take Shot Tendency controls how many shots per game a player takes during gameplay and during simulation. Touches controls how likely a play will be called for a certain player during gameplay but not how likely the player is to shoot. That is controlled by the Take Shot and "by location" shot tendencies. Here is the scale I used for the Take Shot tendency:

FGA Shot
22+==65
20-21 =60
18-19 =55
16-17 =50
14-15 =45
12,13 =40
10,11 =35
8,9===30
6,7===25
4,5===20
2,3===15

FGA are per 40 minutes.

This has gotten me these results in a sim I ran:

Assist %
Kidd 57.2 (35.4) 8.4APG (8.2)
Rondo 52.3 (47.1) 11.3APG (11.2)
Paul 37.3 (45.8) 9.4APG (9.8)
Harris 37.2 (38.2) 8.1APG (11.4)
Nash 36.3 (53.1) 10.2APG (11.4)

First number is Assist % in sim, number in parenthesis is what their Ast % was last year, followed by Ast per game in sim and last number in parenthesis is their Ast per game last season.

In a different sim, here are more complete stats I've gotten:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...zbEhDWUE#gid=0

The line of stats next to the player was their 2010 season averages and the line below their name is what the sim produced. The numbers aren't perfect, but they're not bad. Notice the minutes per game discrepancy. If the minutes would have been the same, I think the stats would have been even more similar.

I took a good look at your roster. I was impressed with many aspects, and it's one of the best I've seen so far- however, I was still able to identify some flaws. Deron Williams is still around 7 APG. Kevin Love still can't manage 10 RPG. And as with every roster I've seen, the Draw Foul tendency is unaddressed. In the stock roster teams will average far too many FTA over a simmed season- up to double their actual 2011 average. The problem is there for stars but is rampant for role players and bench players. Check out the FT/FTA ratio of guys like Anthony Morrow or Shawne Williams in a simmed season vs. real life. Most role players should have Draw Foul tendency at 0, which strangely enough will still cause them to get too many FTA, though the issue is not nearly as bad, and you can get team FTA around the proper levels. This has the effect of raising assists since your team is shooting more FG's.


I was impressed that you were able to get Nash and Paul around 9+ APG, but upon closer inspection, some of this was due to the outdatedness of the roster. I moved Paul, Billups and Butler onto the Clippers while removing Gordon, Kaman, and Al-Aminu, and he put up just 7.8 APG. Nash's assists held up though (and could go even higher, you have his shot tendency too high) so I'm trying to analyze what you did to Nash and the Suns that enables him to put up 10 APG. If you adjusted Draw Foul tendency and reduced his shot tendency, you might actually be able to match his APG from last season!

[elknavo]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

The problem is, historically, players have averaged well over that amount and Howard, by Block%, isn't as good statistically as you might think. Here are the results from last year:

Block Pct
1. JaVale McGee-WAS 6.7
2. Serge Ibaka-OKC 6.5
3. Darko Milicic-MIN 6.3
4. Andrew Bogut-MIL 5.8
5. DeAndre Jordan-LAC 5.4
6. Andrew Bynum-LAL 5.4
7. Dwight Howard-ORL 4.9
8. Tim Duncan-SAS 4.8
9. Emeka Okafor-NOH 4.6
10. Taj Gibson-CHI 4.6

To get accurate stats (and the percentage of each stat is more accurate than the per game numbers because it doesn't factor in minutes played), you would have to give Javale McGee like a 155 rating to equate. What about guys like Mark Eaton or Manute Bol, if people wanted to create them? Those guys had career BLK% averages around 10%, twice what Howard has. Would you have to give them 220's?

Here is a list of the top 20 leaders in BLK% during a season:

Rank Player BLK% Season Tm
1. Manute Bol 10.81 1988-89 GSW
2. Manute Bol 10.81 1986-87 WSB
3. Manute Bol 10.64 1987-88 WSB
4. Manute Bol 10.62 1985-86 WSB
5. Alonzo Mourning 10.15 2005-06 MIA
6. Manute Bol 10.01 1989-90 GSW
7. Jim McIlvaine 9.92 1995-96 WSB
8. Manute Bol 9.79 1991-92 PHI
9. Manute Bol 9.62 1990-91 PHI
10. Jim McIlvaine 9.52 1996-97 SEA
11. Shawn Bradley 9.40 1995-96 TOT
12. Chris Andersen 9.28 2008-09 DEN
13. Mark Eaton 9.20 1982-83 UTA
14. Alonzo Mourning 8.95 2006-07 MIA
15. Shawn Bradley 8.86 1998-99 DAL
16. Dikembe Mutombo 8.81 1995-96 DEN
17. Mark Eaton 8.74 1984-85 UTA
18. Jim McIlvaine 8.59 1997-98 SEA
19. Theo Ratliff 8.56 2003-04 TOT
20. Andrei Kirilenko 8.54 2004-05 UTA

10 of those came in the past 20 years and if somebody wanted to make Mutombo from the 96 season achieve accurate block numbers, it's simply not possible, even with REDitor, which is a phenomal program. It's a sim-engine issue moreso than a roster issue even though both influence the results during simulations.

You are generally 100% right here. However, notice that of those top 10 seasons, only one has happened in the last 10 years. Blocked shots are at their lowest point since the stat was instituted, mainly because of the increased prevalence of the three point shot. I doubt that if you took '94 Mutombo and dropped him in today's NBA he'd put up 4 or 5 BPG.... probably closer to 3 BPG. Still, it's a problem and the crux of it is the scale just simply does not go high enough. What kills me is I doubt it'd take more than overwriting one or two numbers in the game code to fix this, and 2k is just too lazy year after year. Instead they spend their effort on finding new about the sim stats engine to break- two years ago I recall APG was just fine.

Unfortunately it seems 99 block means about 5-6 BLK% and everyone above that is just going to have to be horrible underrated... At least with assists we know it's possible to get 10 APG...

[Colts18]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

slimm44,

I was able to get BPG number in line during the 2K11 set put out by HyperBaller. For now, that is fine with me.

Maybe the editor can increase their ceilings this year so we can give people 300's in certain ratings.

[elknavo]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

Managed to get Deron Williams as high as 9.5 APG! From the stock 2k roster, I did the following to the Nets:

1) Edited Shot tendencies bringing up Humphries, James, Morrow, and the rest of the bench who were mostly way too low. Edited Deron's down to 72. In stock 2k Deron takes too many shots and scores like 25 ppg.

2) Edited draw foul tendency: Deron to 61, Brook Lopez to 50, Shelden Williams at 40, all others to 0. This provided the closest to realistic amount of FTA, and less FTA = more FGA = more assists.

3) Deron pass rating up to 99

4) Raised Offensive Awareness of all starters other than Deron by 5. I think this is justified anyway as the Nets are likely to be a lot better on offense this year. And yes, I've tested and OffAwr of teammates does affect PG APG.
Nash with 99 OffAwr teammates: 8.3 APG
Nash with 25 OffAwr teammates: 6.0 APG

5) Raised Humphries' inside shot tendency, his FG% is way too low otherwise.

6) Adjusted rotations. Deron needs 42-43 to play a realistic 37-38 mpg in simmed games. Lopez gets 35 MPG from a setting of 38.
D Williams 42
Morrow 34
S Williams 21
Humphries 28
Lopez 38

Here are some results for DWill compared to actual 2011 stats

MPG PPG APG
2011 Actual 37.9 20.1 10.3
Sim Trial 1 37.9 18.8 9.1
Sim Trial 2 37.8 19.3 8.6
Sim Trial 3 36.4 18.6 8.9

Then I tried mucking around with coach profiles. Offensive Tempo, Fast Break, and Throw Alley Oops to 100.
Sim Trial 4 37.5 19.9 9.7
Sim Trial 5 37.8 21.0 9.5

The Jazz last year played at a higher offensive tempo than the Nets did, so it actually makes sense that either Williams would go down in assists some, or the team's offensive tempo would have to increase to allow Williams to maintain his assists. Of course at 100 on those sliders I would hope for Williams to be able to get 12-13 APG. With better teammates, he probably could.

I have all his teammates shooting very accurate FG% in simmed seasons... Perhaps there are other methods, similar to OffAwr, that can raise PG APG without raising FG%?

[slimm44]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

I feel you are taking the right general approach in using advanced metric stats when available, however, there is definitely something you should know about Ast%. The way it's calculated on Basketball-Reference and other sites is NOT the same as 2k's version. In most places Ast% refers to the percentage of possessions in which a player makes an assist, EXCLUDING those in which he takes a shot- so normally, taking more or fewer shots should have no effect on Ast%. In 2k, Ast% refers to the percentage of possessions in which a player makes an assist, INCLUDING those where he takes a shot. So more shots cause your Ast% in 2k to go down. This explains why low-shot tendency PGs like Kidd and Rondo have Ast% stats in 2k that are far too high, and why higher shot tendency PGs like Paul and Nash are too low.


Also, I have found that the Take Shot Tendency controls how many shots per game a player takes during gameplay and during simulation. Touches controls how likely a play will be called for a certain player during gameplay but not how likely the player is to shoot. That is controlled by the Take Shot and "by location" shot tendencies. Here is the scale I used for the Take Shot tendency:



I took a good look at your roster. I was impressed with many aspects, and it's one of the best I've seen so far- however, I was still able to identify some flaws. Deron Williams is still around 7 APG. Kevin Love still can't manage 10 RPG. And as with every roster I've seen, the Draw Foul tendency is unaddressed. In the stock roster teams will average far too many FTA over a simmed season- up to double their actual 2011 average. The problem is there for stars but is rampant for role players and bench players. Check out the FT/FTA ratio of guys like Anthony Morrow or Shawne Williams in a simmed season vs. real life. Most role players should have Draw Foul tendency at 0, which strangely enough will still cause them to get too many FTA, though the issue is not nearly as bad, and you can get team FTA around the proper levels. This has the effect of raising assists since your team is shooting more FG's.


I was impressed that you were able to get Nash and Paul around 9+ APG, but upon closer inspection, some of this was due to the outdatedness of the roster. I moved Paul, Billups and Butler onto the Clippers while removing Gordon, Kaman, and Al-Aminu, and he put up just 7.8 APG. Nash's assists held up though (and could go even higher, you have his shot tendency too high) so I'm trying to analyze what you did to Nash and the Suns that enables him to put up 10 APG. If you adjusted Draw Foul tendency and reduced his shot tendency, you might actually be able to match his APG from last season!

I haven't addressed draw foul or committee foul tendencies but I plan it. The roster file isn't "complete" yet but I appreciate the kind words and advice. If you want to help in any way with the project, pm me.

[slimm44]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

slimm44,

I was able to get BPG number in line during the 2K11 set put out by HyperBaller. For now, that is fine with me.

Maybe the editor can increase their ceilings this year so we can give people 300's in certain ratings.

Wouldn't that completely obliterate gameplay if the ratings ranged from 25-300?

[CAN_JE]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

I was able to increase Nash's ast numbers from 6.5 to 8.2 in default roster, by setting up same "shot tendecy" and passing skills to each player of the Suns like I did in 2k11 Association. But its too little to his normal 10-11 ast per game..

[tonio5100]

Re: Association Stats are a ROSTER issue

Managed to get Deron Williams as high as 9.5 APG! From the stock 2k roster, I did the following to the Nets:

1) Edited Shot tendencies bringing up Humphries, James, Morrow, and the rest of the bench who were mostly way too low. Edited Deron's down to 72. In stock 2k Deron takes too many shots and scores like 25 ppg.

2) Edited draw foul tendency: Deron to 61, Brook Lopez to 50, Shelden Williams at 40, all others to 0. This provided the closest to realistic amount of FTA, and less FTA = more FGA = more assists.

3) Deron pass rating up to 99

4) Raised Offensive Awareness of all starters other than Deron by 5. I think this is justified anyway as the Nets are likely to be a lot better on offense this year. And yes, I've tested and OffAwr of teammates does affect PG APG.
Nash with 99 OffAwr teammates: 8.3 APG
Nash with 25 OffAwr teammates: 6.0 APG

5) Raised Humphries' inside shot tendency, his FG% is way too low otherwise.

6) Adjusted rotations. Deron needs 42-43 to play a realistic 37-38 mpg in simmed games. Lopez gets 35 MPG from a setting of 38.
D Williams 42
Morrow 34
S Williams 21
Humphries 28
Lopez 38

Here are some results for DWill compared to actual 2011 stats

MPG PPG APG
2011 Actual 37.9 20.1 10.3
Sim Trial 1 37.9 18.8 9.1
Sim Trial 2 37.8 19.3 8.6
Sim Trial 3 36.4 18.6 8.9

Then I tried mucking around with coach profiles. Offensive Tempo, Fast Break, and Throw Alley Oops to 100.
Sim Trial 4 37.5 19.9 9.7
Sim Trial 5 37.8 21.0 9.5

The Jazz last year played at a higher offensive tempo than the Nets did, so it actually makes sense that either Williams would go down in assists some, or the team's offensive tempo would have to increase to allow Williams to maintain his assists. Of course at 100 on those sliders I would hope for Williams to be able to get 12-13 APG. With better teammates, he probably could.

I have all his teammates shooting very accurate FG% in simmed seasons... Perhaps there are other methods, similar to OffAwr, that can raise PG APG without raising FG%?

Thanks man!!! Finally a sumwhat solution to the elite pg assist issue... Im waitin for 2k to finish wit their day to day roster updates then im gonna do a MEGA roster edit update including ratings tendacies layup/dunk packages signature gear & shoes... I dont kno who did the ratings for 2k but they got the ratings all messed up!!! My rosters should b done by new years for ps3