yeah, online is a different animal, and i'm glad we see eye to eye on that at least. success online is just way too arbitrary. quality shots are not rewarded enough and bad shots are not punished enough.
i'm not a fan of these "magical voodoo" hot and cold momentum streaks. it makes the game more about luck than decision making. I'm fine with momentum playing a minor role, but the momentum shifts are way too powerful and too easy to initiate. success becomes more about who can force a cheesy hot streak first rather than who's getting the best shots. 2k, please make success about skill and shot quality, not about arbitrary momentum shifts that are handed out like candy on Halloween.
a major part of the problem is that it's too easy to make contact layups. all somebody has to do is ram inside and force up a bad contact layup and they've got a very good chance of making it, or picking up a cheap, unearned foul. they make a few in a row, and now their whole team is unstoppable. making cheap contact layups is how a lot of people are able to get their team hot. no need to get open...just ram into defenders with Durant or Lebron, and you'll keep the game close. meanwhile, as the defender, i made a good play by getting in front and creating the contact, but i'm not rewarded for that at all. they just make the contact layup anyway. defense and initiating contact is not rewarded in the paint.
the online shot success logic is a complete mess. like you said, there's no rhyme or reason to the "rewarding/punishing good/bad shots". i don't mean to toot my own horn, but i get really good shots. i take my time and make sure that i'm open before i shoot. most of my online opponents take ill-advised contested jumpers and contact layups....yet my opponents can still shoot a decent percentage by taking bad shots all game. i usually shoot better than them, but sometimes the shooting percentages are almost even, despite the fact that i'm taking open shots and he's taking contested shots. talk about arbitrary success.
like you said, the hot/cold momentum is WAY too overpowered (for individual players and for the entire team)...so people are able to get lucky and stumble into an unstoppable hot streak...or a skilled user can get unlucky and end up in a crushing cold streak that lasts for 2 quarters when they did nothing to deserve it. the game is too quick to hand out powerful momentum (hot or cold).
it feels like if you get just a couple of misses and turnover, you're whole team is suddenly stuck in a cold momentum funk that you can't get out of...once your team gets cold, even getting 5-6 wide open shots in a row isn't enough to get them out of the funk.
on the other side, a cheeser can make a few lucky contested shots and all of the sudden they're on an unstoppable hot streak and their whole team can't miss for a whole quarter. before you know it they've built a 10-point lead just from contact layups and contested jumpers. it feels like the game is too quick to give a team unstoppable momentum just because they made a few lucky shots in a row.
also, why can my whole team get stuck in a cold streak from missing WIDE OPEN shots? you should only get cold if you're forcing bad shots. why punish someone with crushing cold momentum just because they got unlucky and missed a few open looks?
the missing of wide open 3's is a big reason that people can effectively use cheap zone defenses. zone defense often leaves shooters open on the perimeter, so i'll make the right play and dish out to my open shooters...but they'll miss their wide open shots. this makes it too easy for people to just sit in a zone and not pay for leaving the perimeter wide open. the game has to recognize this and reward you for getting the ball to your wide open shooters. if making the right play and getting it to the open man doesn't result in success, then why am i playing the game? i'll miss my wide open 3's off of good passes...yet the other guy will come down do a couple of hesitations and drill a 3 with a defender in front of him. it's like the game isn't even paying attention to who's getting the better looks. arbitrary, arbitrary, arbitrary.
i know this is nothing new, since online has sucked in every version after 2k11...but it's time to finally fix this crap. by adding these overwhelming "luck" factors like momentum and sig skills, it has allowed luck to overpower decision making. getting open just isn't that important anymore.
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