Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

[BigO32]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

What did you guys do for shot location formulas?? I can't figure out a good formula to use for Ins, Cls, Mid, 3pt. If you can help, that'd be great. thanks.

[DetroitStyle]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I have a feeling the kryptonite to this post is player progression and the draft. Have you done any testing/observations on this? I see after a few years in franchise progression destroying all the work done and then players in the draft coming in with 2K's ratings and not playing to their 'real' potential in the OP's system.

[stizz]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

What did you guys do for shot location formulas?? I can't figure out a good formula to use for Ins, Cls, Mid, 3pt. If you can help, that'd be great. thanks.

That's an easy one. Just look at the player's per 40 minute attempts for each shot location on hoopdata.com. "At Rim" is inside shots, "3-9 feet" and "10-15" combined is close shots, 16-23 feet is "med shots," and 3 point shots is obvious. Multiply those values by 10 and input them as the shot location tendencies.

For players where you don't have this data, you can at least ensure they have the correct 3pt tendency by making sure the ratio between their 3PA and FGA stays equal to the ratio of their 3pt tendency to the sum of all their shot location tendencies.

Pretty much just multiply the players amount of shots taken per 40 from each location by 10.

[sdballer]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I know this is for simulated games but I play an association with one team so I'd like the sim stats to be realistic as well. What would the game play like with these ratings for the games I actually play?

[battousaiken]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

elnavo: Your assists fix is very good most of the time. I am able to get the 9.5-10.0 apg with Deron Williams and Steve Nash already, even while leaving "injuries" on during the association.

However, the Chris Paul situation is bad. The best I've gotten is an 8.5 apg, and that is downgrading Billups, Mo Williams, Blake Griffin and Bledsoe, to the tune of 3.8, 2.2, 2.0, and 1.5 apg respectively. This team is just full of good passers.

Do you have any advice?

[bamalam]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I haven't released a roster yet, though I'm working on one that's close to release worthy. I'm getting sim stats close to perfect and I've just added second rounders (with CF's and displayed draft status) and every missing player, re-rated them according to my system where applicable, and fixed contracts for every player. What I have should be an excellent "base roster," as I've got close to perfect ratings for simulated stats in all the "hard ratings," though I haven't touched any of the subjective ratings. I just want to edit potential a little bit before I release anything, as I understand the current potential rating system is messed up and results in way too many players becoming 90+ OVR.

For those editing according to my formulae, you may be wondering what to do with rookies made by 2k (such as the first rounders) which are rated according to 2k's broken method and don't have any stat data you can use to get accurate ratings. For them, you should generally apply the following changes to bring them in line with my roster's rating system:

+15 Shot Inside
-10 Shot Medium
+5 Pass

Draw Foul Tendency -50

And for Shot Tendency:

New Shot Tendency = (OldTendency - 50) / 2 + 50

any plans for you to release any time soon?


Anyone else planning on releasing a roster with these edits?

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

Since you came up with all these good formulas do you have a good formula for the coach profiles, I been trying to use stats off of hoopdata and basketball-reference. I been trying to come up one with using the teams teams pace, team shots locs, Off eff, or what ever I could use. I'm not sure if it'll work but trying couldn't hurt, I just won't the CPU to stop wasting the whole shot clock down and start shooting more.

I don't think coach profiles affect simulated stats except for bench depth and tempo... so maybe I'll come up with better tempo numbers once I'm done editing players but the default ones really aren't all that bad except for teams that have changed coaches/play a very different style from last season, so it's not a high priority for me at the moment.

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I've read your formulas and it looks like good research. However, you didn't take into account how a players vertical affects their performance. I've done my own research, and while it doesn't have much of an effect on blocks on default rosters, it definitely affects the rebounds.

One thing I'm interested in, is if you lower certain players vertical as a whole, would it increase the blocks in this game. For example, Kobe is 33 years old with an 83 vertical. Let's say you drop his vertical down to 60 (he's still 6'6") and just overhaul the whole vertical scale, while leaving athletic bigs with a decent vertical and block rating...wouldn't those block numbers increase? Just asking...

If you've done research on this please present some hard data. I tested every rating and tendency before putting this guide together, and I just re-tested the vertical rating to see if it affects rebound/block stats. After testing a half-dozen players I noted no different between block/rebound numbers at 25 rating vs. 99.

Is it possible that a high vertical rating reduces a player's chance of having his shot blocked? I suppose it is but that would be extremely hard to test, and given the general simplicity of the sim stats engine I strongly doubt that it would go into enough depth to model the height of a player's release point on shots.

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I know this is for simulated games but I play an association with one team so I'd like the sim stats to be realistic as well. What would the game play like with these ratings for the games I actually play?

Oh, I think it plays well, definitely better than 2k's official rosters. Bear in mind that a lot of the ratings that affect gameplay are untouched, so if any of those are horribly off it will be up to you to fix them (stuff like Battier and Ben Wallace still being DPOY caliber defenders).

Because of the higher inside shot ratings and slightly lower med shot ratings, I would suggest that you adjust the shot success in your sliders accordingly, but I'd say it should play pretty well.

[24]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I've been considering the switch from 360 to PC for 2k12 since I finally got a new gaming PC. I'll take you word for it and give 2k12 a shot on the P.C. I might end up liking it better than the 360

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I have a feeling the kryptonite to this post is player progression and the draft. Have you done any testing/observations on this? I see after a few years in franchise progression destroying all the work done and then players in the draft coming in with 2K's ratings and not playing to their 'real' potential in the OP's system.

Player progression and the draft isn't the kryptonite to my post or ratings system, it's kryptonite to 2k's association mode in general- progression/potential is horribly messed up in the default roster as well. The amount of 90+ rated players steadily rises until even superstars sit in the FA pool because no one can afford them- this is because potential ratings are simply too high across the board.

For existing NBA players, you'll find that just applying my rating formulas tends to greatly reduce this problem for them, since they are generally less overrated and need more progression to get to 90+ OVR than they do in 2k's official roster. However, you are right that auto-generated draft classes can be problematic because they will have 2k's potential ratings and 2k-style scales for their other ratings.

Whether you use my roster or 2k's default or any roster, you are going to have to reduce the potential ratings of auto-generated draft classes, or they will be full of future superstars and your association will be hopelessly broken by season 5 or so. Yes, this breaks the suspense of wondering who is the best prospect. Yes, this sucks. No, there's no way around this.

So we are going to have to reduce potential for draftees. To bring their ratings in line with my ratings scale is not too difficult though: just apply +15 inside shot, -5 medium shot, +5 pass, -50 draw foul tendency, and flatten their shot tendency (reduce its distance from 50 by half).

When I do release a roster I think I will track down the best available pre-made draft classes for the next few years, apply my ratings system and potential edits to them, and release them with my roster so you won't have to deal with manually editing draft classes until year 4-5 or whatever.

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

any plans for you to release any time soon?


Anyone else planning on releasing a roster with these edits?

Right now I have the following complete:

-All NBA and built-in classic team players re-rated according to my system, as well as free agents
-All contracts accurate
-All missing players added, ratings brought in line with my system, CF and draft status where possible.
-All rookies are official 2k from their latest roster, brought in line with my rating system
-Correct arena names
-Correct ages for all classic players
-All Rotations NBA accurate
-Charles Barkley added to '85 sixers with CF and accurate ratings

I just really want to address one issue before I release anything: potential. Since I don't exactly know what the best way is to do that just yet, it might be a few days.

When I release I'll try to include an association file with accurate rotations (MAY ALL THE GODS DAMN YOU FOR MAKING ALL ROTATIONS RESET WHEN WE START A SEASON OR ASSOCIATION, 2k) set on day 1 and all 30 teams user controlled.

When the roster editor comes out I'll edit coaches and fix their terrible ratings, as well as getting Keith Smart coaching the Kings.

This is a PC project of course, but once the PS3/360-compatible roster editor comes out I'll be happy to put it out for those platforms. Of course, anyone who is interested in doing so is encouraged to use these formulas on their own PS3/360 project if they wish.

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I've been considering the switch from 360 to PC for 2k12 since I finally got a new gaming PC. I'll take you word for it and give 2k12 a shot on the P.C. I might end up liking it better than the 360

If you care at all about things like moddability, accuracy, realism, etc... there's really no comparison.

You should know however that 2k is somehow even lazier at supporting the PC version than the console version, and we still haven't gotten the patch that console players got weeks ago. Since the patch didn't really fix most of the many game-breaking bugs in the game though, this isn't that big a deal. We'll probably get it in a month. In my opinion, however, the incredible wealth of awesome, free content put out by the community and not available on 360/ps3 easily outweighs that though.

[elknavo]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

elnavo: Your assists fix is very good most of the time. I am able to get the 9.5-10.0 apg with Deron Williams and Steve Nash already, even while leaving "injuries" on during the association.

However, the Chris Paul situation is bad. The best I've gotten is an 8.5 apg, and that is downgrading Billups, Mo Williams, Blake Griffin and Bledsoe, to the tune of 3.8, 2.2, 2.0, and 1.5 apg respectively. This team is just full of good passers.

Do you have any advice?

I just ran three simmed seasons and my Chris Paul gets an average of 17 PPG and 9.2 APG in similar minutes to real life. The real CP3 is currently at 9.3 APG with the Clippers.

What did you edit to get where you are now? Am I correct in assuming you just edited those teams' pass ratings and shot tendencies according to my guide?

Those changes will get you most of the way there, but you will still come up short on assists unless you address the issue of Free Throw Attempts. In default 2k rosters there are WAY too many FTA. The lowest FTA team shoots more FTA in a season than the highest FTA team in the NBA. You'll notice especially that bench warmers and role players get way too many FTA (most of them should be at 0 draw foul tendency). There are obviously no assists when a player gets fouled on a shooting attempt, so this causes assist numbers to be lower than they should.

All I did to my roster to get Paul at 9+ APG is fix shot tendencies, pass ratings, and draw foul tendencies based on 2011 season numbers.

If I also tweak the Clippers' offensive awareness ratings (Paul does deserve a 99, Griffin/Billups should probably be around 89, and DeAndre Jordan is ridiculously low) he can get 9.5+ APG pretty consistently.

You can also raise the offensive tempo to raise assists some, but the clippers are not a high tempo team so I would only use that as a last resort.

[almightyx]

Re: Comprehensive Simulations Stat Mechanics Guide - ALL ROSTER MAKERS SHOULD READ

I can't wait for your roster man! I'm really excited about it. I love association and I hate how screwed up it is right now. You are definitely on the right track and you save a ton of work for me. Keep it up!