Tracking your Counter Resets

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  • Y2cik
    Rookie
    • Dec 2014
    • 98

    #121
    Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

    I've been a little bit busy during RC, so here is info for 3 resets at once

    1st

    Games ~ 1700

    Boards 150

    Screenshot_2015-01-03-11-10-21.jpg

    2nd

    Games ~850

    Boards 95

    Screenshot_2015-01-04-16-39-47.jpg


    3d

    Games ~1650

    Boards 173

    Screenshot_2015-01-07-14-56-36.jpg


    The first 2 resets have happened while I've been Leg+, the last one - Leg++
    IGN: Y2cik
    Tier: Playoff ++
    MVP: D Wade

    Comment

    • eVizions
      MVP
      • Apr 2008
      • 1257

      #122
      Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

      Originally posted by Y2cik

      1st
      Games ~ 1700
      Boards 150

      2nd
      Games ~850
      Boards 95

      3d
      Games ~1650
      Boards 173

      The first 2 resets have happened while I've been Leg+, the last one - Leg++
      Wow, you are very lucky

      Comment

      • Y2cik
        Rookie
        • Dec 2014
        • 98

        #123
        Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

        Originally posted by eVizions
        Wow, you are very lucky
        I don't think so - I missed RC LeBron James just for 10 points, I've finished 306 with 13 385 points
        IGN: Y2cik
        Tier: Playoff ++
        MVP: D Wade

        Comment

        • rickyk
          Rookie
          • Dec 2014
          • 29

          #124
          Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

          Just got my 4th star reset so I have put all of the resets together to try and make a better average of what to expect when moving to star.
          I have been switching between star/+/++ so it's not ideal but I haven't noticed any great difference between tiers.

          Boards 848
          Games 5434-240
          Games/board 6.69
          Stars 4
          Leg 4
          Epic 14
          Ur 42
          Sr 109
          Rare 508
          Boost 100
          Enhance 67

          Chance of each card
          Star 0.47%
          Leg 0.47%
          Epic 1.65%
          Ur 4.95%
          Sr 12.85%
          Rare 59.91%
          Boost 11.79%
          Enhance 7.9%

          If anyone wants to add their star stats and we can keep a larger collection of data feel free

          Comment

          • Illmatic1909
            Pro
            • Dec 2014
            • 708

            #125
            Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

            As long as we have time due to the update, I want to bring something up for discussion. Here is what I'm starting to hypothesize....

            There is no set drop rate for any tier. Rather, the chance of you drawing your reset goes up over the course of that tier. For example, it seems that in Epic++, the reset typically occurs in the 110 range. So if we assume n = 110, then the probability of getting your reset on the very first clear is 1/110, then 1/109 on your second clear, 1/108, etc...which means there is a certain 'n' where you are guaranteed a reset (probability final drops to 1/1). As you move up tiers, that 'n' decreases.

            I hope I'm not re-stating something someone else said, but this would seem consistent with why some people are getting their drops so early, and some people experience 'bad luck' and have to wait forever.

            I've also seen people debate where you are most likely to find the clear card on your board, but I also think as a programmer it would be stupid to store the location of a card every time, rather than simply making the probability 1/25 the first time, 1/24, 1/23...in other words, where you pick doesn't matter.

            Thoughts???
            Last edited by Illmatic1909; 01-07-2015, 08:11 PM. Reason: Grammar
            IGN: illmatic1
            Tier: Leg++

            Comment

            • fufo
              Rookie
              • Nov 2014
              • 276

              #126
              Tracking your Counter Resets

              100 boards without an UR in Epic ++

              Let's see how it ends.

              1 Epic Support (Board #66 among i tracked)
              Originally about 750 games.
              9 Super Rares (8 Players)
              90 Rares+Boosts+Enhancements


              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
              Last edited by fufo; 01-07-2015, 08:33 PM.

              Comment

              • shanethemain11
                Rookie
                • Nov 2014
                • 98

                #127
                Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                Originally posted by Illmatic1909;2046967317[LIST
                [/LIST]
                There is no set drop rate for any tier. Rather, the chance of you drawing your reset goes up over the course of that tier. For example, it seems that in Epic++, the reset typically occurs in the 110 range. So if we assume n = 110, then the probability of getting your reset on the very first clear is 1/110, then 1/109 on your second clear, 1/108, etc...which means there is a certain 'n' where you are guaranteed a reset (probability final drops to 1/1). As you move up tiers, that 'n' decreases.

                I've also seen people debate where you are most likely to find the clear card on your board, but I also think as a programmer it would be stupid to store the location of a card every time, rather than simply making the probability 1/25 the first time, 1/24, 1/23...in other words, where you pick doesn't matter.
                Thoughts???
                I too have wondered this. I am in UR++ and just drew two SR's back to back in the same spot, which seems very unlikely unless this system is being used. Also, I seem to have terrible luck drawing, then have 2-3 great draws in a row.

                Comment

                • rickyk
                  Rookie
                  • Dec 2014
                  • 29

                  #128
                  Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                  I agree it's most likely a system similar. The problem of not knowing the max reset per tier is probably never going to be known however if we had a large enough sample of say 1000 resets for each tier we could work out the average number of boards per reset which in turn if we doubled that would give us something close to the magic reset number. I understand that the number we get will never be too close without a massive sample but with only a few people keeping track of boards per reset the sample sizes are probably going to stay small for a while

                  Comment

                  • Tortenheber
                    Rookie
                    • Dec 2014
                    • 22

                    #129
                    Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                    After my freeby legendary (Kyle Lowry) it took only 37 boards to get another leg. And yes - it was everbodys favourite leg Lance Stephenson.......

                    Comment

                    • pardi
                      Rookie
                      • Nov 2014
                      • 34

                      #130
                      Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                      Nobody got a fancy counter app for iOS?

                      Comment

                      • eVizions
                        MVP
                        • Apr 2008
                        • 1257

                        #131
                        Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                        Originally posted by Illmatic1909
                        As long as we have time due to the update, I want to bring something up for discussion. Here is what I'm starting to hypothesize....

                        There is no set drop rate for any tier. Rather, the chance of you drawing your reset goes up over the course of that tier. For example, it seems that in Epic++, the reset typically occurs in the 110 range. So if we assume n = 110, then the probability of getting your reset on the very first clear is 1/110, then 1/109 on your second clear, 1/108, etc...which means there is a certain 'n' where you are guaranteed a reset (probability final drops to 1/1). As you move up tiers, that 'n' decreases.

                        I hope I'm not re-stating something someone else said, but this would seem consistent with why some people are getting their drops so early, and some people experience 'bad luck' and have to wait forever.

                        I've also seen people debate where you are most likely to find the clear card on your board, but I also think as a programmer it would be stupid to store the location of a card every time, rather than simply making the probability 1/25 the first time, 1/24, 1/23...in other words, where you pick doesn't matter.

                        Thoughts???
                        I would guess it's an mixture of both. I think there's a static drop rate for each tier (let's say 0.5% for legendary), but I think there's a threshold that you reach where that percentage begins to climb. For example, let's say at 200, it begins climbing by 0.25 every clear. By 210, you're already up to 3%. The chances of you getting to where it was 100% are about the same odds of you actually winning the lottery.

                        As for the "where on the board" issue, my guess is that the location doesn't matter and any card you pick is run through the probability method. However, while that would be the way I would do it, it is possible that they generate a full board and store that. It's not as outrageous as people seem to think it is. In fact, depending on the technology stack they use and how they use it, it could actually be a more efficient way of doing it (making one call to generate 25 cards up front vs. 25 independent calls). Storage is cheaper than processing power, after all. Half the fun is trying to figure out how it's done. Glad to hear I'm not the only one who wonders about this stuff!

                        Comment

                        • eVizions
                          MVP
                          • Apr 2008
                          • 1257

                          #132
                          Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                          Originally posted by pardi
                          Nobody got a fancy counter app for iOS?
                          Search for "tally" and see what they have. I'm sure there's something comparable.

                          Comment

                          • Lob City
                            Rookie
                            • Dec 2014
                            • 41

                            #133
                            Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                            Epic++ tier, My previous reset came at 102 boards, just got my next reset at 43 boards in, but it's a support card. Pretty useless, since I already have 2 Epic supports, but at least it was a quick reset.

                            Comment

                            • DrgnFlyDrft
                              Rookie
                              • Sep 2014
                              • 19

                              #134
                              Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                              Here are the current estimates for WWE Supercard. I would image since it's a same company/same drop system/implemented at the same time type of deal, they should be pretty similar. If it helps, anyway.

                              Star++ 300
                              Star+ 350
                              Star 400
                              Legendary++ 200
                              Legendary+ 250
                              Legendary 300
                              Epic ++ 125
                              Epic+ 150
                              Epic 175
                              UR++ 50
                              UR + 75
                              UR 100

                              Comment

                              • Lob City
                                Rookie
                                • Dec 2014
                                • 41

                                #135
                                Re: Tracking your Counter Resets

                                Just got another Epic in Epic++ tier, it came 4 board resets after the Epic Support I got earlier. Dupe as well, pretty stoked.

                                Comment

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