2010 NBA Draft Thread.

[JerseySuave4]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

I see what you are getting at. But you just have to change the way you look at it.

Each team is going up against ALL THE OTHER TEAMS TOGETHER. Not one on one. It's not the #1 team's odds vs. just the #2 team's odds. Then the #1 team's odds vs. the #3 team's odds. In that case, the #1 team would have the edge and should come out on top. But that's not the case. It's the #1 team's odds vs. the #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 odds combined.

Think as if you were to have a chance to pick out of 100 balls. There are 25 red balls (the #1 team). There are 75 green balls (Everybody else in the lottery). Which color would you choose to be picked out of the lot?

That's why it's a little inaccurate to assume that just because the team has the best odds in the draft, they will more than likely get the first pick in the draft.

It has panned out just like that as well if you look at the results from the last eight years. 2 out of the 8 teams that had the best shot of getting the #1 pick got it. That's 25%, which is precisely the same odds that the worse team in the draft has.

Which makes sense. You should expect that out of every 4 years, only 1 team is going to get the top pick. That gives you that 25% chance. If we were to extrapolate that, we would expect the worse team in the league to get the #1 pick only four times in 16 years!

That should definitely put things in perspective. It did for me at least. lol

they showed the process during the telecast, there are balls #1-14, each team is given a number of different 4 number combos. They pick the 4 numbers, then look at the board for who has that combo and thats who gets the pick. The Nets had 250 combinations out of a possible 1,000.

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

[TMagic]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

they showed the process during the telecast, there are balls #1-14, each team is given a number of different 4 number combos. They pick the 4 numbers, then look at the board for who has that combo and thats who gets the pick. The Nets had 250 combinations out of a possible 1,000.

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

...o..k...so what are you getting at?

(not being a smart alec, just trying to see the reasoning behind your post...)

[jdr4693]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

I think DeMarcus Cousins = Tyrus Thomas. A nice PF/C role player, but wont be a star on his team.

[ehh]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

Oh ok. Like I said I haven't seen too much of him or UK for that matter so take my opinion on them FWIW, which is probably worth little LOL. I guess it depends on if he's willing to grow up(like PP said)and if the right Coach can help him do that.

Yeah, I mean he's not going to be out on the wing finishing in transition or anything but he runs the floor and hustles. The kind of big man who will be the trailer cutting down the lane for a flush. He played harder in his one year at UK than Eddy Curry has every played in his life - and I have a pretty strong distaste for Calipari and UK.

The alternative is Favors, and let's be honest, how many times in the last dozen years have we heard about "athletic PF's with great upside" coming out of college that have absolutely no skill? Who's the last great PF in the NBA that lacked skills? Favors, from everything I saw this year, is getting in line with Stromile Swift, Tyrus Thomas, Chris Wilcox, etc.

[Cebby]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

Last time I checked, Baltimore natives root for the Wizards because they have no basketball team. Most of my friends who live in Blatimore root for the Wiz/Bullets.

We aren't referring to the sports team but the actual players.

The Wizards may be the local sports team in Baltimore, but Baltimore kids aren't local to DC.

Durant is a PG county kid and thus DC local.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

So far, the popular consensus choice with the #3 pick is Cousins, followed by Favors as people seem to be excited about a frontcourt of Cousins/Lopez.

[ehh]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

So far, the popular consensus choice with the #3 pick is Cousins, followed by Favors as people seem to be excited about a frontcourt of Cousins/Lopez.

Good, I hope it stays that way for the Nets' sake. DX has Favors going 3rd but who knows.

[z Revis]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

I see what you are getting at. But you just have to change the way you look at it.

Each team is going up against ALL THE OTHER TEAMS TOGETHER. Not one on one. It's not the #1 team's odds vs. just the #2 team's odds. Then the #1 team's odds vs. the #3 team's odds. In that case, the #1 team would have the edge and should come out on top. But that's not the case. It's the #1 team's odds vs. the #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, odds combined.

Think as if you were to have a chance to pick out of 100 balls. There are 25 red balls (the #1 team). There are 75 green balls (Everybody else in the lottery). Which color would you choose to be picked out of the lot?

That's why it's a little inaccurate to assume that just because the team has the best odds in the draft, they will more than likely get the first pick in the draft.

It has panned out just like that as well if you look at the results from the last eight years. 2 out of the 8 teams that had the best shot of getting the #1 pick got it. That's 25%, which is precisely the same odds that the worse team in the draft has.

Which makes sense. You should expect that out of every 4 years, only 1 team is going to get the top pick. That gives you that 25% chance. If we were to extrapolate that, we would expect the worse team in the league to get the #1 pick only four times in 16 years!

That should definitely put things in perspective. It did for me at least. lol

You put things into perspective for me too man. Wow.

I still don't know if I like the system or not. If you had it like the NFL, teams would tank WAY more. As it is now, you're not guaranteed any pick. I think I like Matrix's idea the best(where the upper half of the non Playoff teams get 2 balls and the bottom half gets 1 ball), but I think that would make it very hard for the bottom tier teams to turn things around. There's never a perfect system, though.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

Never have been a fan of this Draft Lottery mess. Just do it like the NFL does and get it over with.

EDIT: Also ehh, DX along with NBADraft.net and BSPN's Chad Ford all have us taking Favors #3.

[phenom1990]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

I just ran this idea through my head: Trade down and take Greg Monroe at some point, run a high low post game with Monroe and Lopez allowing Monroe to take advantage of his passing ability to get Lopez and others easier buckets. Now since you would be trading down you would also be getting another player/piece/pick from a team.

[phenom1990]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

Never have been a fan of this Draft Lottery mess. Just do it like the NFL does and get it over with.

I disagree because I think different professional sports are structured differently. The NFL has 7 rounds and a lot more positions to fill, therefore it easier for one player to change the fortunes of a team in the NBA than the NFL outside of a QB. By using the NFL system it would be more rewarding to tank games and not play your best players therefore creating a lesser product. I just also think it is unfair to teams that aren't necessarily the most talented but go out and compete for 82 games a year.

[ehh]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

EDIT: Also ehh, DX along with NBADraft.net and BSPN's Chad Ford all have us taking Favors #3.

Hey my opinion is only one opinion so hopefully I'm wrong on Favors. I just wouldn't risk it with a guy like Cousins there. Ever since Favors first played against top talent (Mickey D's game) he has been less than stellar. I have no reason to think he'll find success against the athletes/players in the NBA.

Ford also commenting on the draft cracks me up. Does he follow the college game at all? Dude's opinion is damn near meaningless.

Just look at Favors' weaknesses from DX, is that REALLY a guy you want to take 3rd overall?

- All-around offensive polish
- Lacks significant offensive polish
- Turnover prone
- Ability to create own shot
- Ability to put ball on floor
- Advanced post moves
- Experience
- Not always assertive
- College system makes him difficult to evaluate
- Got by on instincts at college level
- Not productive enough
- Relatively unproven
- Free throw shooting
- Jump-shot

[Bornindamecca]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

Tanking in the NFL would be different than tanking in the NBA anyway. The NFL season is so short, by the time you realize how terrible you are, there aren't more than 8 weeks left anyway. Can you imagine an NBA team tanking for half of a season?

Season is too long to do anything to encourage that.

Plus the NFL is such a high impact, pride-based game with huge rosters, I don't think tanking could reach the heights that it could in the NBA. NBA players generally feel "safe" and there is no one trying to run into them if they are lazy. If you're an offensive player in the NFL, tanking could be very painful.

NBA needs the lottery to keep people honest.

[JerseySuave4]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

i think the Nets can still get Turner. Problem is Wall seems like the only sure fire future All Star at some point in his career. Turner has some questions, Cousins could be the best player if he can get his head straight and Favors has some questions. So it will be interesting.

Question... whats the deal with Ricky Rubio? Was it Minnesota that drafted him and has the rights to him? I forget?

[JerseySuave4]

Re: 2010 NBA Draft Thread.

...o..k...so what are you getting at?

(not being a smart alec, just trying to see the reasoning behind your post...)

i was explaining the process because people seemed to think that you just had more ping pong balls that they picked when its about the combinations not the amount of balls. You explained the logic, i explained the process, nothing more, nothing less.