Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

[da ThRONe]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Like others I agreed with this before reading and even more so after, seems like it would help NBA and college put out better basketball. As far as college obviously making these kids better is good for them, but talent would be distributed among colleges and make for many more better teams. I could be totally wrong on this and im sure someone will correct me but it seems to me since the 1 yr rule came many more "smaller" schools have been more competitive...of course your always going to have your powerhouse schools but these schools won't be restocking talent every year, instead they would be making the talent they have better "hopefully" Also many of these kids would have to think a little harder about where they want to go, instead of being like I like this school I can play here for one year they would be like I like this school but do I want to go here for a couple years?

Actually we would probaby see less parity in college hoops if there was a 20 year old rule. The games among the bigger programs would be much more entertaining.

The turnover at places like Kentucky, Kansas, Ohio St., etc. is why we have the little parity in college hoops right now.

[da ThRONe]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

You sure you don't have this backwards?

Between those two, 4 year collegiate with sound fundamentals will always have a role in the NBA, especially if you can play sound defense and rebound. No idea how to came to the conclusion that they'll be out the league in 4 years yet the HS/1 and done player with questionable fundamentals will be a solid role player for decades.

Look at the HS list. How many that were drafted in the 1st round are no longer in the league that wasn't impacted by injuries?

[Rocky]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

You sure you don't have this backwards?

Between those two, 4 year collegiate with sound fundamentals will always have a role in the NBA, especially if you can play sound defense and rebound. No idea how to came to the conclusion that they'll be out the league in 4 years yet the HS/1 and done player with questionable fundamentals will be a solid role player for decades.

I really think the answer is that you want the elite HS players to have alot of those fundamentals when they enter the NBA. It's the biggest professional basketball league on the planet and I think it benefits the game immensely when you don't have to spend 2-3 years 'teaching' elite talent on the professional level.

We've already noticed the upgrade that the one and done rule has given to the NBA. Durant, Rose, Love, Irving, etc. have come in ready to play faster than anybody has expected.

[da ThRONe]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Ok I did the numbers

From 2002-2005 the number of HS seniors that's out of the league (not due to injuries and that were taken in the 1st round) are 2 out of 16. That's 12.5%.

From 2002-2008 the number of college Sr. that's out of the league (not due to injuries and that were taken in the 1st round) are 21 out of 43. That's 48.8%

Here's the list of Senior drafted in the 1st round from 2002-2008(in case you would like to double check my stats) *I didn't count due to injuries

2002
Melvin Ely, Fred Jones, Juan Dixon, John Salmons, Dan Dickau

2003
Kirk Hinrich, Nick Collison, Marcus Banks, Reece Gaines, Troy Bell, David West, Dahntay Jones, Brain Cook, Josh Howard (the best year)

2004
Rarael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Jameer Nelson, Tony Allen

2005
Joey Graham, Danny Granger, Hakim Warrick, Julius Hodge, Luther Head*, Jason Maxiell, David Lee, Wayne Simien

2006
Brandon Roy*, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick, Hilton Armstrong, Rodney Carney, Maurice Ager, Mardy Collins

2007
Acie Law, Al Thornton, Jared Dudley, Morris Almond, Aaron Brooks, Alando Tucker

2008 Jason Thompson, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, D.J. White, J.R. Giddens

I think the numbers speak for themselves.

[Rocky]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Ok I did the numbers

From 2002-2008 the number of HS seniors that's out of the league (not due to injuries and that were taken in the 1st round) are 2 out of 16. That's 12.5%.

From 2002-2008 the number of college Sr. that's out of the league (not due to injuries and that were taken in the 1st round) are 21 out of 43. That's 48.8%

Here's the list of Senior drafted in the 1st round from 2002-2008(in case you would like to double check my stats) *I didn't count due to injuries

2002
Melvin Ely, Fred Jones, Juan Dixon, John Salmons, Dan Dickau

2003
Kirk Hinrich, Nick Collison, Marcus Banks, Reece Gaines, Troy Bell, David West, Dahntay Jones, Brain Cook Josh Howard (the best year)

2004
Rarael Araujo, Luke Jackson, Jameer Nelson, Tony Allen

2005
Joey Graham, Danny Granger, Hakim Warrick, Julius Hodge, Luther Head*, Jason Maxiell, David Lee, Wayne Simien

2006
Brandon Roy*, Randy Foye, J.J. Redick, Hilton Armstrong, Rodney Carney, Maurice Ager, Mardy Collins

2007
Acie Law, Al Thornton, Jared Dudley, Morris Almond, Aaron Brooks, Alando Tucker

2008 Jason Thompson, Roy Hibbert, Courtney Lee, D.J. White, J.R. Giddens

I think the numbers speak for themselves.

Why the 2002 cutoff? Just curious...

[da ThRONe]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Why the 2002 cutoff? Just curious...

It's 2012 the list starts at 2002 10 years. I figure anything pass the ten year mark isn't a great determation for guys still being in the league today.

[mKoz26]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

I can't agree with those statistics, da throne.

If you ignore the fact that the most talented players are/were coming out of high school, you'd obviously come to that conclusion. We haven't really seen too many of the top talents in high school stay around for four years of college. Unless you want to compile a list based on high school ratings (Rivals or whatever), we'd have no way of knowing what the talented players did.

And even that would be skewed because most players who are that talented and realize that they have high draft stock in their first few years of college end up leaving early. That leaves only the players who have no draft stock by their sophomore or junior years staying around for graduation. The only guys who end up graduating are guys who take their education seriously or whose draft stock fell early in their college careers so they decided to stick around and get a degree.

[Jukeman]

Funny thing is, a good % of the draft includes upperclassman. You would think a huge list of underclassman are declaring for the Draft. I personally think the entire subject is an overreaction.

List of every draft

Resource of top 100 HS SR's dating back to 1998

[mKoz26]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Funny thing is, a good % of the draft includes upperclassman. You would think a huge list of underclassman are declaring for the Draft. I personally think the entire subject is an overreaction.

Look at the top of this year's draft class, then get back to us.

[Jukeman]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Look at the top of this year's draft class, then get back to us.

???

There are 22 underclassman projected to get selected..

There are 60 draft picks. 7 of them are projected players from overseas which most of those guys ironically would be underclassman if they played college ball..

52% Upperclassman 36% Underclassman 12% International in this year's draft.

[da ThRONe]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

I can't agree with those statistics, da throne.

If you ignore the fact that the most talented players are/were coming out of high school, you'd obviously come to that conclusion. We haven't really seen too many of the top talents in high school stay around for four years of college. Unless you want to compile a list based on high school ratings (Rivals or whatever), we'd have no way of knowing what the talented players did.

And even that would be skewed because most players who are that talented and realize that they have high draft stock in their first few years of college end up leaving early. That leaves only the players who have no draft stock by their sophomore or junior years staying around for graduation. The only guys who end up graduating are guys who take their education seriously or whose draft stock fell early in their college careers so they decided to stick around and get a degree.

I understand what your saying. However an argument was being made that 4 years of the fundamentals college provides would result in a longer career than HS/1&done players.

I agree these stats aren't conclusion. However you would think it wouldn't be this overwhelmingly in favor of talent over fundamentals. If a case is being made for staying in college. After all if your going to create a rule that farther limits players shouldn't it be based on something more than opinions and/or perception?

[mKoz26]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

???

There are 22 underclassman projected to get selected..

There are 60 draft picks. 7 of them are projected players from overseas which most of those guys ironically would be underclassman if they played college ball..

52% Upperclassman 36% Underclassman 12% International in this year's draft.

2 Upperclassman in ESPN's top-10 prospects. Leave the BS stats at the door. I don't really care about picks 31-60, or even anything out of the lottery, honestly. Those picks are a crapshoot. You're just using them to skew your statistics.

I understand what your saying. However an argument was being made that 4 years of the fundamentals college provides would result in a longer career than HS/1&done players.

I agree these stats aren't conclusion. However you would think it wouldn't be this overwhelmingly in favor of talent over fundamentals. If a case is being made for staying in college. After all if your going to create a rule that farther limits players shouldn't it be based on something more than opinions and/or perception?

The business end of things isn't really just opinion, though. It would certainly create a stronger "hype" behind prospects if people had the opportunity to follow them for four years in college. As it is now, most are unfamiliar with the top-10 prospects.

The players coming into the NBA would be better and the players staying in college would grow better. Everybody wins except the players who usually get drafted with a lot of unknowns. The great players still get drafted and still get paid.

[Jukeman]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

2 Upperclassman in ESPN's top-10 prospects. Leave the BS stats at the door. I don't really care about picks 31-60, or even anything out of the lottery, honestly. Those picks are a crapshoot. You're just using them to skew your statistics.

The business end of things isn't really just opinion, though. It would certainly create a stronger "hype" behind prospects if people had the opportunity to follow them for four years in college. As it is now, most are unfamiliar with the top-10 prospects.

The players coming into the NBA would be better and the players staying in college would grow better. Everybody wins except the players who usually get drafted with a lot of unknowns. The great players still get drafted and still get paid.

Which justifies staying longer in college proves nothing...

Which is my original argument.

I'm not even high on Davis, I do think he could be the next Camby but I doubt he makes that impact from day one which leads me to my True Minor League proposal.

A slim chance that Davis becomes a Thabeet (who was a Jr BTW)....What is Charlotte (or whoever picks him) going to do?

Bench him? Let him play and figure it out or send him to a Development League that is focused on developing the player instead of the organization which means learning fundamentals instead of "showcasing" what you can do?

[mKoz26]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

Which justifies staying longer in college proves nothing...

Which my original argument.

This is the last chance I'll give you to understand this.

Great players are coming out early, not staying in school. Thus, the best players in the draft are underclassmen every year. Why? Because they will get drafted early, so they know they can come out.

We haven't had a chance to see all these great players stay in college.

With upperclassmen in the draft, most aren't very good players because they never were good to begin with. But they're certainly better players than they were as freshmen.

[Jukeman]

Re: Steve Kerr Makes A Case for 20 Y/O Age Limit in NBA

This is the last chance I'll give you to understand this.

Great players are coming out early, not staying in school. Thus, the best players in the draft are underclassmen every year. Why? Because they will get drafted early, so they know they can come out.

We haven't had a chance to see all these great players stay in college.

With upperclassmen in the draft, most aren't very good players because they never were good to begin with. But they're certainly better players than they were as freshmen.

Look at the link I posted, a lot of top 100 players are staying in school and a lot of them are top 25 players...

If you're argument is that you would like to see the Durant's and the Rose's stay longer then fine but that is a very slim % of players that make up the NCAA to make your claim.