I picked Dallas to beat Miami, go find the 2011 Finals thread on here. The Mavs were a bit of an outlier but they still had an outright legend in Dirk who was playing great, a very good rim protector/help defender/defensive anchor, tons of veterans and shooters and great chemistry. Plus that Miami team was in its first year together and had plenty of concerns (depth, chemistry, front court). If you think that the 2011 Mavs were similar to the 2007 Cavs, 2009 Magic or 1999 Knicks then I don't know what to tell you.
As for the Spurs, the only time I thought they were finished was when I thought Duncan was finished circa 2010. But they quickly rebuilt the team and Duncan had a resurgence, which was unheard of for a mid-30's big man. So they still had the best player of the generation even though he was past his prime, the best head coach of the generation in Pop, two other future HOFers with tons of playoff/Finals experience and a very good supporting cast. If you're asking me if I thought that the Spurs could win a title at the start of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons (and postseasons) then the answer is an astounding yes. The only question marks for them were age and health, they had all the other prerequisites.
Yeah, this is exactly what I do and exactly why I don't arbitrarily think a team can win the championship just because they've reached the Finals. There's far more to it than that, it's incredibly naive to think that a team can win it all just because they reached the conference finals or even the Finals. As I said earlier, this is the NBA. It's not the NCAA tournament or the NFL.
There are plenty of legit reasons to doubt the Hawks, but it often feels like the reason is they weren't that good last year or the year before so they can't be that good now.
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