2017 Offseason Thread

[redsox4evur]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

If people are in this much of a ruckus over Hayward joining Boston, I can't wait to see the hot takes when Paul George and either Westbrook or LeBron go to the Lakers next year.

What if they add all 3???


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[trekfan]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Ok so what's you're point here? Winning doesn't matter now? Big markets don't matter according to you so what is it that sways FA's? You're cherry picking here.

And I thought PG was just going to sign with LA?




You should know more than me. Obviously something was going on that put off FA's.

Look, I know there's exceptions that could paint a different picture. All I'm saying is small markets don't attract FA's. No one has given me an example of a big name FA signing with one. All you guys have is non stars or using arguments like CP3 left the 2nd largest to go to the 5th? I don't see how that's disproving anything.

What small market has signed a big name? You have far more examples of guys LEAVING those teams than you do of one joining them. LeBron is the one good example here, but I think that's more about him being from Cleveland and wanting to give them a title than it is about markets not mattering. Besides dude left them once anyway lol.

I get it's the teams fault for not doing enough to keep Hayward, but the point is their only option is to build their team in house. Draft and develop, like every other small market. None of those teams have the luxury of signing a big name to play alongside their star.


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Firstly, let's put market sizes out there for all to see, just to give us a common context (note, these sizes are based off data from around two years ago, but should still be fairly accurate):
<table><thead><tr><th>Rank</th> <th>Team</th> <th>Media Market Population (000s)</th> </tr> </thead><tbody> <tr> <td>1-2</td> <td>New York Knicks / Brooklyn Nets</td> <td>19995</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3-4</td> <td>Los Angeles Lakers / Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td>17054</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Chicago Bulls</td> <td>9474</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>Toronto Raptors</td> <td>7566</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td>7468</td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Dallas Mavericks</td> <td>7090</td> </tr> <tr> <td>9</td> <td>Golden State Warriors</td> <td>6750</td> </tr> <tr> <td>10</td> <td>Houston Rockets</td> <td>6579</td> </tr> <tr> <td>11</td> <td>Boston Celtics</td> <td>6448</td> </tr> <tr> <td>12</td> <td>Atlanta Hawks</td> <td>6032</td> </tr> <tr> <td>13</td> <td>Washington Wizards</td> <td>5982</td> </tr> <tr> <td>14</td> <td>Detroit Pistons</td> <td>4938</td> </tr> <tr> <td>15</td> <td>Minnesota Timberwolves</td> <td>4667</td> </tr> <tr> <td>16</td> <td>Phoenix Suns</td> <td>4545</td> </tr> <tr> <td>17</td> <td>Cleveland Cavaliers</td> <td>4053</td> </tr> <tr> <td>18</td> <td>Denver Nuggets</td> <td>3921</td> </tr> <tr> <td>19</td> <td>Miami Heat</td> <td>3842</td> </tr> <tr> <td>20</td> <td>Orlando Magic</td> <td>3592</td> </tr> <tr> <td>21</td> <td>Charlotte Hornets</td> <td>3462</td> </tr> <tr> <td>22</td> <td>Sacramento Kings</td> <td>3400</td> </tr> <tr> <td>23</td> <td>Portland Trailblazers</td> <td>3010</td> </tr> <tr> <td>24</td> <td>Indiana Pacers</td> <td>2642</td> </tr> <tr> <td>25</td> <td>Utah Jazz</td> <td>2505</td> </tr> <tr> <td>26</td> <td>Milwaukee Bucks</td> <td>2255</td> </tr> <tr> <td>27</td> <td>San Antonio Spurs</td> <td>2193</td> </tr> <tr> <td>28</td> <td>Oklahoma City Thunder</td> <td>1737</td> </tr> <tr> <td>29</td> <td>Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td>1604</td> </tr> <tr> <td>30</td> <td>New Orleans Pelicans</td> <td>1559</td></tr></tbody></table>

Small market teams that have signed "big name" free agents, just off the top of my head:

1. Lamarcus Aldridge to Spurs, 2015: definitely a big-name and a very productive player as "the guy" in Portland.

2. David West to Spurs, 2015: West opted out of a guaranteed $12M dollar pay day from the Pacers to sign for pennies with the Spurs.

2. Joe Johnson to the Jazz, 2016 (oh, yes, I realize Joe Jesus isn't the player he once was, but he still offers solid production and is a well-known name).

3. Chris Bosh -- unrestricted free agent -- re-signing with the Heat in 2014, could have gone to Houston.

4. Paul Pierce, went from the Nets to the Wizards in 2014 (veteran, but still had some left in the tank).

5. Marc Gasol, re-signed with the Grizzlies in 2015 -- could have gone anywhere he wanted as an unrestricted free agent.


If you look at the bottom tier of the media markets, a number of the smaller markets who haven't gotten "big name" free agents in the last five seasons have been chronically mismanaged. Sacramento. Orlando. Charlotte. NOLA.

Other small markets are known for penny-pinching owners, like OKC and Indiana.

Or they could have been like the Bucks, who only in the last few years have had stability in the front office and on the ownership front.

Players haven't exactly flocked to the top markets though, either -- New York, LA, Chicago, Toronto, Philly ... no one wants to sign outright there except Rondo and D'Wade in Chicago (and we see how well that worked out). Philly JUST made a major signing in JJ Reddick a few days ago and the best free agent the Lakers have brought in the last two years is ... Luol Deng?

And if you want to argue historical trends, just remember this: Orlando nearly had a trifecta of Tracy McGrady, Tim Duncan, and Grant Hill in 2000. This is pre-injury riddled Grant Hill and a just entering his prime T-Mac. They nearly pulled that off and that was because ownership was willing to go that far.

If you have ownership willing to spend and a front office that, at the very least, doesn't blow picks/signings on a consistent basis, you can have your shot at any major free agent. You just have to convince them it's worth it.

[areobee401]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Horford was paid what the market dictated at the time. I can't believe we are doing this **** today.

[ricky24]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Just because other dudes are getting overpaid doesn't make Horford worth the money sorry.


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It actually does. It's market value. If the Celtics didn't offer Horford what he's getting he wouldn't be here.

[ricky24]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Horford was paid what the market dictated at the time. I can't believe we are doing this **** today.

Exactly.....,

[dubcity]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Man, I swear if I hear Warriors social media referring to Nick Young as "Swaggy P" all year I might unfollow. Not playing that game where I'm suddenly cool with clowns like that just cuz they're on my team lol.

[redsox4evur]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

It actually does. It's market value. If the Celtics didn't offer Horford what he's getting he wouldn't be here.

So going by this he has more value than guys like Paul George, Giannis, Isaiah, and every other player who is making less money than him right? Because that's the point I'm making.


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[CMH]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Man, I swear if I hear Warriors social media referring to Nick Young as "Swaggy P" all year I might unfollow. Not playing that game where I'm suddenly cool with clowns like that just cuz they're on my team lol.

My notification that informed me that Young signed read: "Swaggy P signs with Warriors."

Really? We can't even use official names in news like that?

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[ricky24]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

So going by this he has more value than guys like Paul George, Giannis, Isaiah, and every other player who is making less money than him right? [/url]

I never said that. You said he's not worth max money. He is. I never said he had more value than any of these guys.

[redsox4evur]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

I never said that. You said he's not worth max money. He is. I never said he had more value than any of these guys.

He is overpaid. Guys that put 16ppg, 6/7 rpg, maybe 1.5bpg and set good screens, space the floor, are not worth $30m per year. There's a huge difference between what the market dictates you should be paid vs what the analytics say you are worth. That's the point I'm making.


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[ricky24]

2017 Offseason Thread

He is overpaid. Guys that put 16ppg, 6/7 rpg, maybe 1.5bpg and set good screens, space the floor, are not worth $30m per year. There's a huge difference between what the market dictates you should be paid vs what the analytics say you are worth. That's the point I'm making.


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It's not a good point though. Horford got his market value. All those players you listed are currently making their market value and will get their market value their next contract.

[jeremym480]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

So going by this he has more value than guys like Paul George, Giannis, Isaiah, and every other player who is making less money than him right? Because that's the point I'm making.


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What other players are making pre-2016 offseason (when the cap spiked) or on their rookie deals is irrelevant.

Basically, the going rate for an All-Star level bigman is $25M+. If Boston wanted him that's what the had to pay or another team would have. That's how the market dictated his cost.

I think he would have gotten a similar number if he were a FA this season, but last offseason really was something. When you had guys like Mozgov, Biyombo and Noah getting $17-18M, then Horford deal wasn't as horrible as you're making it out to be.

[BleacherBum2310]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

He is overpaid. Guys that put 16ppg, 6/7 rpg, maybe 1.5bpg and set good screens, space the floor, are not worth $30m per year. There's a huge difference between what the market dictates you should be paid vs what the analytics say you are worth. That's the point I'm making.


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okay He's overpaid. He's still worth it. you think IT2 has the season he had or Heyward comes without the Al signing?

[dubcity]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

My notification that informed me that Young signed read: "Swaggy P signs with Warriors."

Really? We can't even use official names in news like that?

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Yeah. Everyone in the media trying to sound internet cool nowadays. Like because they use his nickname it means they're in touch with the latest pop culture lol. I'll call him that stupid *** name when he changes his legal name, or if he wins 6th man of the year.

[z Revis]

Re: 2017 Offseason Thread

Were people saying it was equal or were they saying that there are numerous factors going into the decision, which you've already acknowledged but somehow continue to push the narrative that market size is the main determinant?

I never said it was the main factor. I just said certain markets are at a disadvantage and it'd be nice if we had more parity then people came at me left and right lol. If we can all agree things aren't equal but small markets can still get players under the right circumstances then I'm good.


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