Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

November 2018: Firebirds Keep The Hot Start Rolling, Still Tied For 1st



OK, so I missed October 31st. Oops. So "November 2018, Plus One Game".

One lineup change as we head into a new month. The 3rd line feels a little stagnant, so I decided to switch out Mark Letestu in favor of Darren Helm to see if that sparks some offense from that line.


10/31 at Buffalo – 2-1 W (SO)
Tyler Pitlick is the hero of Halloween, scoring the lone goal in regulation and the game-winner in the shootout. Casey Mittelstadt scored the lone goal for the Sabres.

11/2 at Florida – 3-1 W
Pitlick is the hot hand again, opening the scoring at 12:59 of the 1st period. Ryan Kesler scores later in the 1st, and Nikolai Sbruev adds a goal in the second before the Panthers break through for their lone goal of the game. The lone down note of the game was losing top-pair defenseman Adam Larsson to injury – he has a mild concussion and should only miss a couple games.

(OK, when the computer adjusted lines to accommodate Larsson’s injury, it also changed around my forward lines a little too. I’ll sort that out later when Larsson comes back.)

11/5 vs Calgary – 4-3 L
An amazing comeback falls short in the closing seconds. Calgary methodically builds a 4-1 lead going into the final minutes. Then with 54 seconds left, Kesler gets his 10th goal of the season... makes the score look a little closer, right? But then Jesper Fast brings the puck down after the face-off and buries a perfect slapper and it’s 4-3 with about 30 seconds. Calgary controls the puck and starts winding down the last bit of clock, but in a heart-stopping “so close” moment, a puck pops loose between the defensemen and Mark Letestu reaches it before either Calgary player… in on net… no, can’t get a good shot away, and the final siren sounds.

11/6 vs New York Rangers – 2-1 W
Speaking of wild finishes, another exciting ending, with a better outcome this time. With 46 seconds, Pavel Buchnevich beats Jaroslav Halak from the right circle to tie the game at 1-1, but with three ticks left before overtime, Nikolai Sbruev scores the game-winner. David Perron scored the other Atlanta goal, all the way back in the 1st period.

11/9 vs San Jose – 2-1 W (OT)
First bit of news: Adam Larsson returns to the lineup. Sbruev and San Jose’s Timo Meier trade goals in the first period, and then things go quiet for the rest of regulation. But then early in overtime, Adam Lowry hammers one past Martin Jones for an overtime win.

11/10 vs Pittsburgh – 4-1 L
The Pens handle the Firebirds quite handily, though the scoring came from unlikely sources. Jamie Oleksiak, Paul Byron, Zach Aston-Reese, and Derrick Brassard all score. The Big Three? Mostly silent – Malkin had an assist, but Crosby and Kessel were held off the scoring sheet.

11/13 vs Detroit – 2-1 W
Atlanta comes through with another low-scoring win. Gustav Nyquist and Andrew Cogliano trade goals in the first period, but the contest isn’t decided until Riley Nash scores on the power play halfway through the third.

The CPU decides to bring the Darren Helm experiment to a close by scratching him; since he’s been held without a point in four games, I won’t argue. While checking that out, I noticed Alex Petrovic has a playable arm bruise and Mirco Mueller is out a few days with a sore shoulder.
Also, oh hey look… Detroit offers me the same DeMelo package everyone else is offering (only a 6th instead of a 5th as the second pick.) Noooope. Though I might look at DeMelo deals in a little bit here to try to shake up the bottom forward lines a little.

11/16 at Arizona – 7-6 W (SO)
The first game of an extended road trip almost slips away from the Firebirds in regulation, as the Birds blow a lead in regulation but salvage it in the shootout. Coyotes score twice in the last five minutes (Jakob Chychrun and Derek Stepan) to tie the game 6-6. Overtime passes uneventfully, but then Craig Smith scores in the shootout (his third of the game, but not a “real” hat trick) to salvage the win for the visiting Firebirds.

11/18 at Boston – 4-0 W
Easy sailing in Boston as the Bruins only muster 18 shots on net. Both Nashes, Craig Smith, Jesper Fast score for the Firebirds.

Down in the minors, noticed that Ullmark’s back spasms have flared up again. It’s a playable injury, but it is possible this guy’s just going to be an ongoing health concern?


11/20 at New Jersey – 2-0 L
This time, it’s the Firebirds’ turn to go silent on the scoring sheet. Taylor Hall and Pavel Zacha score goals while the Firebirds can’t solve Cory Schneider despite throwing a respectable 32 shots at him.

11/22 at St. Louis – 4-3 L
It’s Thanksgiving Day, but the Blues have to be thankful for Vladimir Tarasenko in handing Atlanta its first back-to-back losses of the year. Tarasenko scored his second goal of the game with 5:32 remaining to break a 3-3 tie and send Blues’ fans home to their turkey dinners in a good mood.

11/23 vs Tampa Bay – 6-5 W (OT)
Atlanta returns to home ice with a wild one. The ‘Birds break out to a 2-0 lead before Tampa comes roaring back with 3 unanswered goals to take the lead. The Firebirds come back and tie the game in the 3rd, and then Adam Lowry appears to break their backs with a goal with 1:07 left. But Leo Komarov answers seconds later to restore the tie and send the game to overtime. But guess what – Adam Lowry must’ve really wanted that game-winner, scoring again at 3:16 of overtime.

Detroit makes another offer on DeMelo that actually gets worse than the last one – now they want us to give up two picks (2020 4th, 2019 4th) with DeMelo to get a 3rd and a 5th in 2020. Ummmm… that’s a hard pass. Though I'm starting to feel like maybe I missed the sweet spot on making a deal before the trading deadline, since the offers are heading the wrong direction.

11/25 vs Las Vegas – 3-2 L (OT)
The Recent Expansion Bowl goes to the Vegas Golden Knights in a game that slipped away late. Shea Theodore scored on a screened shot with 31 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime, and then after the Firebirds held action in the Vegas end for most of extra time, the Knights counter-attacked and Erik Haula scored the game-winner with 1:17 left.

We got a call from our scouts saying it’s going to be a good year for rookies, but there’s still way too much gray on the scouting reports to say for sure. Besides, if we’re playing this well all year, we’re not exactly going to have the pick of the crop.

11/27 at Los Angeles – 2-1 W (SO)
Another overtime game, but this one comes out better for the Firebirds, as Craig Smith scores the winner in the shootout. Neither goalie with a superhuman workload – 29 shots for the ‘Birds, 27 for the Kings.

Trade offer: Olofsson and a 2020 5th to Toronto for a 2019 4th. Not crazy about the return AND not sure I should help my closest division rival.

11/29 vs New York Islanders – 5-2 L
Maybe they were jet-lagged from the LA trip, but the Firebirds sleepwalk through the first two periods and end up down 4-0 before they get their offense on track, and two 3rd-period goals isn’t quite enough to make it interesting.

MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 9-5-1
YEAR-TO-DATE: 15-6-3, 33 points
DIVISION: Tied for 1st (with Toronto AND Boston), 33 points
CONFERENCE: Tied for 2nd-4th (with Toronto AND Boston), 33 points

TEAM LEADERS
GOALS: Kesler 12, Sbruev 8, Riley Nash 7, Smith 6, Cogliano 5, Fast 5
ASSISTS: Perron 13, Kesler 12, Riley Nash 12, Petrovic 12, Murphy 11
POINTS: Kesler 24, Riley Nash 19, Perron 17, Sbruev 16, Smith 16
PLUS-MINUS: Murphy 9, Petrovic 8, Kesler 7, Riley Nash 7, Smith 6

ON THE FARM
The Birmingham Bandits (12-7-4 for 28 points) remain in the middle of the pack, above .500 but still only 5th in their division. Linus Ullmark is great when he plays (5-0-1, 0.97 GAA, .960 save percentage) but keeping him healthy has been a chore. LW Jordan Martinook continues to push for promotion with team highs in goals (10) and points (8). Byron Froese, Nail Yakupov, and Beau Bennett remain near the top of the leaderboards, but two new players are making their mark – Dominik Simon has surged to 9 goals and 4 assists; defenseman Erik Gustafsson, mostly signed as a spare body, now has 5 goals and 9 assists.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

November 2018: Around The League

The Atlantic goes from a 2-way to a 3-way tie at the top, as Boston announces its presence. The Pens slump a little bit in the Metro, allowing Columbus to pull into the lead. Chicago and Nashville duke it out atop the Central, while the Pacific is a pretty tight Top 4. Ottawa, Philly, and Minnesota sit at the bottom below the 20-point mark, so time to cut loose some overtime checks for the scouting department getting ready for a high pick.

STANDINGS


Other than the leaders, the most interesting number on there? Vancouver with seven overtime losses. How does that happen?

LEAGUE LEADERS


Big month for Taylor Hall, taking over the goal scoring lead, and Washington's got an impressive 1-2 punch with Ovi and Kuznetsov, despite their spot toward the bottom of the standings. (They actually sit 1 and 2 in points, which you could see more easily if I had sorted it.) For the 'Birds, Kesler sits outside the leaderboard, but not by a lot (12 goals, 24 points).

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev continues to lead the way, and has even widened his scoring lead as Buffalo's Mittelstadt took a step back after a hot start.

Logistically, I started charting draft position (for the moment, look at ZAR lighting it up as an undrafted rookie! Then again... 7 points? Check back in a month or two) and also put down a few notable goalies. But all of the mentioned guys are playing in relief of injured starters -- Fleury is already back in Vegas, and Price and Holtby ought to return around the new year -- so don't necessarily expect gaudy end-of-year numbers.

NOTABLE INJURIES

Most of what's out there is either stuff you already know about (the goalies) or day-to-day stuff that'll drop off the board shortly. The one exception -- Sidney Crosby was just recently injured and is out for evaluation. That's an injury that could change the shape of the race, depending on the severity. We'll keep an eye on that one.

[SeattleBattleCat]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Nice going so far, the firebirds are going great. 👍

Really like the presentation, easy to read & well set out. Looking forward to more.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Thanks! Smash Bros waylaid me for a few days, but I'm back... :P

Nice going so far, the firebirds are going great. ��

Really like the presentation, easy to read & well set out. Looking forward to more.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

December 2018: The First Slump In The Road



Guess which potato-head didn't bother to collect any screenshots this month? Ah well.

December sees the Firebirds hit their first rough patch, suffering a multi-game losing streak, but the Birds bounce back after Christmas, and overall they're still in the mix. Marquee matchups for the month include Washington, the defending champs; the former Thrashers and current Winnipeg Jets; and the month ending with a challenge atop the standings against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

12/2 vs Colorado – 4-1 W (SO)
The month starts with a fairly easy win, as Grubauer stops 34 of 35 pucks. Hagelin leads the way with a pair of goals.

12/5 at Philadelphia – 2-1 W
Philly is in the basement so this game feels like it shouldn't have been this close. Atlanta stumbles through two periods before Rick Nash salvages a victory in the third.

Annnnd... Adam Larsson is injured again. Evaluation pending.

12/7 at Winnipeg – 3-1 L
Atlanta pays a visit to the home of their city's former residents, the Jets. The teams traded early goals, but then the Jets seemed to kick in another gear, and it felt like a matter of time until they broke out on top. The winner happened midway through the 3rd when Blake Wheeler picked Jesper Fast’s pocket exiting the defensive zone, and buried a breakaway. The Jets added an insurance goal on a late power play when Kesler got whistled for slashing trying to make a play on a loose puck in the Winnipeg end. Ehlers and Little also scored for the Jets; Kesler had the lone Atlanta tally.

Another insultingly low DeMelo offer. Starting to think I might just pull him off the block entirely. And Larsson will be out to the 19th. For the moment, I won't bother calling anyone up because I don't want to have to try to send them back down through waivers, but if anyone else gets hurt, I might have to.

12/9 at Carolina – 4-2 L
Rare back-to-back losses as Carolina breaks out to an early 2-0 lead and makes it stand up. Perron and Rick Nash score for the ‘Birds.

12/10 at MTL – 5-4 W (SO)
It got a little ugly, as Atlanta nearly blew an early lead in the 3rd. But Kesler scored with about a minute left to send the game to overtime tied at 4, and Craig Smith scored the winner in the shootout.

12/12 at Vancouver – 5-1 L
Ouch. A low-scoring 1-1 affair becomes a laugher in the 3rd as Vancouver throws up 4 unanswered goals. Let's never speak of it again.

12/14 at Columbus – 3-2 L (SO)
The teams trade goals in the first and third periods, but Columbus pulls it out in the shootout, with Artemi Panarin administering the knockout blow. Smith and Kesler score for the ‘Birds. Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois get the regulation tallies for Columbus.

12/16 vs Edmonton – 5-1 L
Much the same as the Vancouver game, a messy third period turns a close game into a blowout. Cogliano gets the sole tally for Atlanta; four different Oilers get on the board.

12/20 at Dallas – 4-3 L
Argh. Dallas creeps out to a 2-0 lead through the first two periods. Atlanta comes back to tie the game 3-3, but Jason Spezza scores with 1:17 left to send the ‘Birds down to defeat. Cogliano, Perron, and the lately-quiet Sbruev score in the losing effort.

OK, I'm starting to get a little worried. That's 1-5-1 in my last 7 with the lone win coming in a shootout. I'm not panicking, but I'm starting to think it may be time to look at making a trade or two to shake things up. One thing I've noticed is Sbruev has been ice-cold -- I think I saw... ONE goal from him, maybe?


12/22 at Ottawa – 5-2 W
The Firebirds take out their aggression on the cellar-dwelling Senators to finally break the slump they’re in. Atlanta racks up a 3-0 lead in the first, and then adds two in the 3rd when Ottawa starts to creep back within striking distance. Five different scorers, but few of the usual suspects.

12/27 at Nashville – 7-5 W
It's "Defense Optional Night" in Nashville! Despite both teams being held below 30 shots, the teams combined for 12 goals. Nashville controlled the middle of the game, but Atlanta dominated the start (4-1 lead in the first) and the end (the last two tallies, once Nashville had tied the game at 5-5). Still, an ugly win is still worth two points.

12/28 vs Washington – 5-1 W
Washington's offense is on fire (Ovi and Kuznetsov are 1-2 in scoring) but their record doesn't reflect it because Holtby has been out injured. If you’re going to make hay against the defending champs, best to do it while their starting goalie is out, I guess. Ovechkin gets the first goal of the game, but Atlanta evens the game with 3.6 seconds left in the first period and breaks it wide open in the 2nd with four goals in a little more than three minutes. In fairness, Washington caught a few pipes that could’ve made the final result a little closer, but it feels good to be on a positive roll.

12/30 at Toronto – 2-1 L
Atlanta’s calendar year ends with a battle with division leading Toronto, and while Atlanta gives it a good effort, they can’t quite solve Fredrick Andersen. After almost two periods of scoreless hockey, William Nylander (as someone who grew up in the 80s, I keep calling him Michael) scores at the end of the 2nd on a low-angle shot from the goal line to give the Leafs a lead. Things start to brighten up when Jesper Fast bangs one home at the start of the third, but then Nazem Kadri is in the right place to bury a rebound halfway through the 3rd that ends up being the game-winner.

MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 6-6-1
YEAR-TO-DATE: 21-12-4, 46 points
DIVISION: 3rd place, behind Toronto (50) and Boston (47)
CONFERENCE: Currently 5th in points. If The Playoffs Started Today (ITPST), we'd be facing Boston. Columbus 54, Pittsburgh 52, Toronto 50, Boston 47, Atlanta 46, Tampa Bay 45, Carolina 44, New Jersey 42.

TEAM LEADERS

GOALS: Kesler 17, Sbruev 10, Riley Nash 9, Perron 9, Rick Nash 8, Smith 8, Hagelin 8
ASSISTS: Perron 18, Kesler 16, Riley Nash 16, Fast 16, Petrovic 14, Murphy 14, Smith 14
POINTS: Kesler 33, Perron 27, Riley Nash 25, Fast 23, Sbruev 22, Smith 22
PLUS-MINUS: Riley Nash 11, Smith 9, Murphy 8, Petrovic 7, Cogliano 6


ON THE FARM
Birmingham still playing pretty well -- I suppose the biggest positive sign is that Linus Ullmark finally had a fairly healthy month and has been doing really well when he plays (sub 2.00 GAA). Dominik Simon is now the team leader in goals with 14, with Jordan Martinook right behind him at 13. Nail Yakupov leads in assists and points. Given the recent slump, is it time to shake things up and give some of these guys a look?

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

December 2018: Around The League

Things are starting to spread out a bit, but there are still interesting races in all four divisions. Toronto sits at the top of four teams in the Atlantic. Columbus and Pittsburgh are battling for the Presidents' Trophy along with the Metro crown. Nashville has finally caught up to Chicago in the Central, and the Kings have slipped behind Edmonton and San Jose out west.

At the bottom, Ottawa, Calgary, and Philly are candidates for the early tee times at local golf courses. Everyone else is still a hot streak away from being right back in it.

STANDINGS


Big mover (at least standings-wise): Dallas. Went from next-to-last in their division to 3rd. However, I'm not sure how much of a splash that is because 3rd through 6th/7th has been close the whole season, and they're still several points behind Nashville and Chicago.

LEAGUE LEADERS


Sidney Crosby's injury wasn't that serious, but it did bump him off the leaderboards. Ovi and Kusnetzov still sit 1-2 in scoring; Montreal's Max Pacioretty is the big mover, vaulting his way onto the leaderboards in assists and points. The elite goalies are still who we've been seeing all year -- Andersen, Bobrovsky, Crawford show up everywhere; TB's Vasilevsky and Pittsburgh's Matt Murray are new to the conversation.

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev is still the guy to beat, though his comparatively slow month allowed some of the other guys to make a race of it. Pittsburgh's Zach Aston-Reese has emerged as a top threat with the Pens' offense behind him. Carolina's Valentin Zykov made a bit of a splash after being nowhere in sight for the first two months. Most of the goalies in the conversation are probably going to fade from the conversation now that their starters are healthy again.

(Also, ignore the Excel error on Vancouver's Elias Pettersson. 10 assists is, in fact, 10 points... Not 2. I'm thinking at some point I must've typed his plus-minus in that cell and wiped the formula.)

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

January 2019: The Plot Thickens



Hard to say what this team's true talent level is. On one hand, they're probably not as good as their hot start way back when, but on the other hand, they've lost some nail-biters to some really good teams, so if you changed just a few L's to W's, they'd be up in the elite reaches of the league. As it is, they're still in the playoff mix, though they just finished their second month of .500 hockey and things are tightening up around them.

1/1 at Chicago – 6-4 W
Atlanta starts the new year on a high note, holding off the on-again/off-again Central leader. The teams went back and forth early, knotting the score at 1-1 and 2-2 before Atlanta got a pair to end the first period leading 4-2. Chicago got one back in the 2nd period, but Atlanta held serve down the stretch to start the new year on a positive note.

1/4 at Minnesota – 9-3 L
Chalk it up to injuries (Rick Nash and Alex Petrovic were both out with short-term injuries) but the Firebirds’ 3rd-period woes return with a vengeance as Minnesota puts up 7 goals in the final frame. Zack Parise, Nino Niederreiter, and Charlie Coyle each score twice for the Wild. Grubauer got 46 minutes to Halak’s 14, but they both got shelled.

1/6 at Anaheim – 2-1 L
I suppose a low-scoring loss after the debacle in Minnesota represents progress, but losing in the final minute stings a bit. Adam Henrique beats Halak with 56 seconds to play to cap off a game where the Ducks registered 43 shots. Playing against his former team, Kesler scored the lone goal for the Firebirds.

1/8 vs Buffalo – 2-1 L
Grubauer is out with an injury, so Linus Ullmark gets the call from the minors and gets the start. Unfortunately, the offensive malaise continues as Buffalo puts up a pair and holds on to win. Mark Letestu is the only Firebird to score.

I was a little worried that might mean I might lose Ullmark on waivers when he got sent back down, but that wasn't an issue and he got back to the minors safely. Maybe I need to brush up on my waiver rules.


1/11 vs Florida – 6-2 L
Sorry, but I'm going to break character -- this one was almost entirely some sort of CPU slider crap. I played this one live to take some screenshots, and pretty much got called for a penalty any time I pushed a button. Charging when I tried to beat an icing play. Slashing trying to knock home a rebound. Tripping when blocking a shot. I'm surprised I didn't get whistled for trying to win a faceoff. 12 power plays for the Panthers including a 5-minute major/game misconduct for Cogliano on the icing play. I think I spent pretty much the whole second period short-handed. I refuse to dignify the result by writing a conventional summary, but whatever... it's one game out of 82.

1/13 at Calgary – 3-2 W (OT)
The road trip starts with even the cellar-dwelling Flames taking us to overtime. Lovely. Atlanta breaks out to the early lead on a goal by Pitlick, but give back two in the 2nd period. Riley Nash scores early in the 3rd to even the game at 2-2, and Adam Lowry scores in OT to give the Firebirds a much-needed win.

1/14 at New York Rangers – 4-1 L
A scoreless first period looks promising, but the Rangers score two goals each in the 2nd and 3rd periods against Jaroslav Halak.

1/17 at San Jose – 6-2 W
The emotional rollercoaster continues with a really solid road win against a tough San Jose team. Kesler scores a pair to lead the attack; both Nashes, Cogliano, and Pitlick also get in on the action.

1/18 at Pittsburgh – 4-3 L
A genuinely fun game but with a heartbreaker of a finish. Pittsburgh breaks out to a 3-1 lead but the Firebirds slowly claw their way back into it, tying it at 3-3 late in the 2nd. But at the very end of a back-and-forth third period, Atlanta makes an untimely turnover, turning Patric Hornqvist loose on a breakaway. Hornqvist puts the puck behind Halak with 23 seconds remaining to give the Pens the last-minute win. Kessel for the Pens and Sbruev each scored a pair but neither could complete the hat trick.

1/21 at Detroit – 3-2 W (SO)
The road trip ends with a squeaker in the Motor City. Atlanta popped in front twice, but the Red Wings answer both times. Frans Nielsen answers Jesper Fast’s opening goal, and after Sburev scores in the 2nd, Anthony Mantha equalizes it in the 3rd to force overtime and a shootout. In the shootout, it’s Jesper Fast again with the decider.

1/23 vs Arizona – 5-0 W
After the long road trip, home cooking agrees with the Firebirds as they slap the Coyotes around on home ice. Five different goal scorers – Kesler, Fast, Pitlick, Nash the Elder, and Cogliano.

1/30 vs Boston – 4-2 W
After a weird week-long break, the Bruins come to town for an important divisional matchup. Atlanta opens up a 2-0 lead, but Patrice Bergeron cuts it in half to make it 2-1 at the first intermission. But the Firebirds come out strong in the 2nd with two unanswered goals in the 2nd, and make it hold up in the 3rd.


MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 6-6-0
YEAR-TO-DATE: 27-18-4, 58 points
DIVISION: 3rd place, behind Toronto (67) and Florida (62), but the next few slots are really close -- Tampa sits at 58; Boston and Buffalo at 57.
CONFERENCE: Still currently 5th in points, but again, things have tightened quite a bit. Full top 8: Columbus 70, Toronto 67, Pittsburgh 64, Florida 62, Atlanta 58, Tampa 58, Boston 57, Washington 57. (But Buffalo is also at 57, so it's really a Top 9).

TEAM LEADERS

GOALS: Kesler 22, Riley Nash 13, Sbruev 13, Fast 11, Rick Nash 11, Perron 11, Smith 11
ASSISTS: Perron 26, Kesler 22, Fast 21, Sbruev 20, Petrovic 19
POINTS: Kesler 44, Perron 37, Sbruev 33, Fast 32, Riley Nash 31
PLUS-MINUS: Petrovic 14, Murphy 12, Smith 11, Riley Nash 10, Djoos 8, Lowry 8


ON THE FARM
I got in a mood and didn't particularly look. Maybe I'll go back and update this later; maybe I'll just pick it up next month.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

January 2019: Around The League

There seems to be a pattern emerging in three of the four divisions -- there's a strong top two, a bit of a gap, and then Lord of the Flies-level chaos for the lower spots.

• Atlantic: Toronto 67, Florida 62, four teams at 57-58.
• Metro: Columbus 70, Pittsburgh 64, Caps at 57, four teams between 51-54
• Central: Chicago 64, Nashville 61, four teams from 52-56.

The Pacific isn't a blowout -- it's more that the frontrunners aren't that far in front, and there's pretty uniform 2-3 point gaps from 1st down to 7th place.

STANDINGS


I suppose the big movers this month are Florida in the Atlantic and the Caps in the Metro. Anaheim also seems to be making a little bit of a run out west, though the Kings have also rebounded nicely from losing the division lead.

LEAGUE LEADERS


Tavares and Eberle wedged their way in between Ovi at the top and Kuznetsov, so the Caps 1-2 scoring leadership is... well, not broken... they're all within 3 points of each other... but dented. Jamie Benn seems to be this month's new rising star, and Sidney Crosby has returned to the Top 10 in scoring.

Goalies: mostly the usual suspects. Just for grins I expanded those leaderboards from Top 5 to Top 10. Got tired of the uneven look of it. Holtby (WSH) and Price (MTL), both returning from injuries, now have enough games to qualify for the rate stats.

CALDER WATCH


After a lackluster December, Sbruev had a pretty strong January to create some breathing room. Fellow 2018 draftee Andre Svechnikov is also climbing the rookie scoring leaderboard, but he's still got a ways to go to catch up. Jordan Greenway is still in the Top 10, but hasn't been doing a lot recently, and Elias Pettersson has numbers (1 goal, 17 assists) that look more like a defenseman than a center. (Annnd crud, I forgot to fix that Excel error. He should be up in 5th/6th place with Donato.)


I'm still tracking the rookie goalies for now, but I may stop reporting it soon if something doesn't change. Fucale got sent to the minors. Subban and Copley only got starts while their starters were injured and are now reduced to backups; that leaves only Boston's McIntyre getting any major ice time.

[BT2008]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Cool format and graphics, like the Calder Watch... Definitely following now.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Fire Brigade: Larsson to Rangers In Four Player Swap

Firebirds trade D Adam Larsson and LW Brandon Pirri (minors) to Rangers for C Kevin Hayes and D Tony DeAngelo.



Good evening everybody, this is Brock Whitney with a special edition of the Fire Brigade. We have our full panel with us tonight to discuss some breaking news -- the Firerbirds decided to shake things up, sending top defenseman Adam Larsson to the Rangers along with Brandon Pirri. In return, the Firebirds add center Kevin Hayes and promising young defenseman Tony DeAngelo.

From what we understand, the initial framework of the deal was Larsson for Hayes straight up. Similar salaries in the $4M range, Hayes has more years left on his deal. From talking to sources in the organization, Atlanta wanted to get a little more back and the Rangers viewed DeAngelo as expendable. Pirri doesn't sound like a major component -- I think the Rangers just wanted to get a body back at forward, and Pirri is what made the deal work.

With us as always are Stu Kennedy, Logan Marx, and Sarah Shaw. Who wants to jump in first?

Ed: My general plan is that Logan Marx will generally represent my thinking or close to it, Stu Kennedy is going to kind of be Old School Hockey Guy, and Sarah Shaw will focus on analytical stuff like contracts, roster spots, etc. Brock Whitney will mostly be a facilitator/company guy that sets up questions and agrees with whatever the team does.

Stu: I'm gonna jump right in and say I love this deal. This front office has been assembling a team of little speedy guys but they've been lacking size and toughness. Kevin Hayes gets you a big kid who can crash the net and put a body on some people. You hate to lose Larsson, but he's been hurt for a couple of stretches, and even when he's in the lineup... for a #1 guy he doesn't seem to be involved on the scoresheet. I know he's not Kris Letang, but 43 games and all he's got to show for it is 4 assists? You get the sense he never quite fit.

Logan: I think you look at these low-scoring close games they've dropped lately, I think a little more offense might have turned a couple of them around. This move does that without really breaking the bank. You're upgrading... I assume Letestu is the odd man out... while dealing from a position of strength -- they can maybe give DeAngelo a crack or bring up Dylan DeMelo from the minors or even just lean on Kevin Bieksa a little more and not lose THAT much on defense. If Hayes pushes his line to a new level of production, I think that's a good deal.

And looking at DeAngelo... he's a throw-in, but a potentially interesting one. I know we have a lot of young D's because of how expansion played out and you can kind of lose track, but this guy looks like he could be more offense-oriented than the other guys, maybe run point on the power play in a few years. So maybe he brings a dynamic that some of those other guys like Pelech and DeMelo don't offer.

Sarah: I like the deal for the reasons you mention, but I have a few concerns. First, DeAngelo has to go through waivers to get back to the minors, so that kind of paints them into a corner for now. If DeAngelo or Bieksa can't replace Larsson adequately, they almost have to make another deal to clear a roster spot, don't they?

The other thing that worries me a little bit is that Larsson was probably the guy other teams around the league were most interested in. If this doesn't have the desired result and they need to go bigger at the deadline, is it going to turn out they gave away their biggest chip too early and missed some better opportunity as more teams become sellers?

Stu: The other way to look at it is they got a jump on the market. Maybe you wait until the deadline and you don't get Hayes either. I think identifying a need and getting something done is a win here.

Logan: But to Sarah's point. Let's say they need to add something more at the deadline. Where WOULD they go from there?

Sarah: Well, they still have lots of decent draft picks -- a first and THREE seconds. But the other thing they have lots of is cap room, so maybe they take on a contract that might be a pain point for some other team. I mean, they're around $13M under the cap already, and eyeballing their free agents, if you assume Hagelin, Rick Nash, and Del Zotto could be replaced with in-house options, that's another $10M right there. So flexibility to take on salary is their other big chip. I don't think you want to go too crazy because it's shaping up as a pretty good free agent class, and $20 or $25M could buy some serious talent upgrades, but if it's the difference between making the playoffs or not, there's room to get creative.

Logan: One move I thought of might be Bobby Ryan in Ottawa. He's a little pricy and OK, he's been hurt the last few years and isn't the 30-goal scorer he was when he was a kid. But he's possibly someone who could provide an incremental upgrade over Fast or Pitlick. Maybe try to get Ottawa to retain some of the salary, make his cap hit a little more befitting his role as a supporting player?

Stu: Bobby Ryan at $4M or $5M? Maybe. Bobby Ryan at 7 and a quarter? No thanks. Remember he's got like 4 more years left.

Brock: Well, it'll be fascinating to see how it all unfolds, but before we start making the next deal, let's see how this one goes. We'll get our first glimpse of that Friday when the Devils are in town.

Ed: just for book-keeping, stat lines at the time of the trade: Hayes 11-10-21, +1; DeAngelo 2-9-11, +1)

[SeattleBattleCat]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

I think it sounds like a good deal.

Great report, good to read, sounded exactly how a sports edition would go.

[BT2008]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Excellent write up.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

February 2019: Kesler Injury Places Firebirds At Crossroads Near Trade Deadline



The good news is the Firebirds seemed to respond well to the Kevin Hayes trade. They started February with a 4-game win streak, and although they gave some of it back, they still finished the month a respectable 8-5-1, including an exciting 1-0 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, currently leading all of hockey in points.

The bad news: Ryan Kesler. Kesler suffered a concussion late in a month that -- after evaluation -- is going to put him out of action until late March. So the Firebirds will have to figure out how to handle their captain and leading scorer being on the shelf for most of their stretch drive. Try to add a body? Muddle through with the guys on hand? It's a tough call.

Also: idiot moment on my part. I realized the one-week break back in January is probably where the All-Star Game would sit in real life.

2/1 vs New Jersey – 3-1 W
After a scoreless first, the teams trade goals in the 2nd. But Perron starts the third period with a score less than a minute in, and Sbruev adds an insurance goal a few minutes later.

2/3 vs St. Louis – 2-1 W
Rick Nash scores with 7:45 left and Grubauer weathers 36 shots as the Firebirds get past the Blues. Sbruev scores the other Atlanta goal. On the downside, David Perron is injured and out for evaluation.

2/6 at Tampa Bay – 5-4 W (SO)
Darren Helm, filling in for the injured Perron, is the hero of the game, scoring once in regulation and scoring the game-winner in the shootout. Steve Stamkos scored a pair in the losing effort for Tampa; Atlanta’s four goals were a motley assortment – Fast, Smtih, Helm, and Hagelin. Also worth mentioning that I gave Tony DeAngelo his first start, giving Bieksa a day off.

Interesting deal offered by Arizona: Martinook, 2020 3rd and 2020 4th for 2019 3rd and 2020 3rd. If we pretend the 2020 3rds are roughly a push, it’d be Martinook (an expiring contract) for a chance to move up from 2020-4 to 2019-3. That’s not BAD but I’m going to hold off a little longer. In general, the pace of trade offers is picking up -- I'm pretty much getting one per day as we move toward the deadline.


2/6 at Las Vegas – 6-2 W
That's four in a row since the trade. This time, Atlanta chases Fleury from between the pipes with four third-period goals. Even though it was the final goal and not pivotal to the outcome, Kevin Hayes scores his first. We also get good news on Perron, as he’s only going to be out about a week with a sprained ankle.

2/8 vs Los Angeles – 1-0 L
The streak was bound to end some time. Atlanta only gives up one goal – Tyler Toffoli, about four minutes in -- but it’s not much help when Jonathan Quick stands on his head.

2/10 at New York Islanders – 5-1 L
Another weak offensive performance, only this time the other team scores in bunches. Tavares scores his 30th and 31st. Kesler scores the lone goal for the Firebirds.

2/12 at Colorado – 6-2 L
Jeez. Four game win streak, meet three-game losing streak! Colorado scores the game’s first three goals, and then adds two more after Sbruev gets Atlanta on the board for the first time. MackKinnon notches his 30th goal of the season for the Avalanche.

2/16 vs Philadelphia – 4-1 W
Surely the flailing Flyers are a recipe for breaking a streak, right? In a scoreless first period, the answer is “maybe not” but then the Firebirds rattle off four unanswered in the second period to stop the slide, a third-period tally by Philly notwithstanding.

Perron is due back, but he’ll be replaced on the injury list by Mirco Mueller. In the meantime, we get an interesting offer from Toronto. Our 3rd and 4th in 2020, and Eric Gustafsson (more of a spare body, though he’s had a good year in the minors) for Artem Zubov – a 19-year-old left wing with Elite potential (not fully scouted, 3 ticks). I think I’m going to take that one – Gustafsson isn’t a major piece, and Zubov is probably better than one of those two picks is going to be.


TRADE: Toronto gets D Eric Gustafsson, ATL 2020-3, and ATL 2020-4 for LW Artem Zubov.


2/18 vs Winnipeg – 2-1 L
Blake Wheeler scores on a botched clearance attempt in the 1st, and Mark Scheifele adds insurance in the second period. Alex Petrovic buries a slapper to make it 2-1 with about seven minutes left, and the Firebirds had chances down the stretch, but couldn’t quite get the equalizer.

2/20 vs Carolina – 3-2 W
It looked like the home fans were in for another disappointing snoozer, as Carolina carried a 1-0 lead into the third period. But then Perron and Cogliano scored third-period goals to pull ahead, and even after Carolina tied, Riley Nash put the game-winner home with 11:25 left.

2/21 vs Montreal – 3-1 L
There’s the letdown game that the Carolina game looked like it was going to be. Gallagher and Mete score first period goals, and then Shea Weber extends it to 3-0. Adam Lowry added a third-period afterthought, but the Firebirds never really got in gear.

2/23 vs Vancouver – 6-2 W
Ahhh, refreshing. The first period wasn’t too bad – a single goal by Riley Nash. But the second? Three unanswered: Hayes, Cogliano, and Rick Nash. Vancouver got a few goals in garbage time to make it look closer than it was, but a solid effort.

Bad news? Ryan Kesler is out until the end of MARCH with a concussion. Because losing your captain and best player for the final playoff push is really what you want to happen. I’m probably going to see how the next two games go and then decide at the deadline if I want to make any sort of major move.


2/24 vs Columbus – 1-0 W
Going up against one of the best teams in the league and a potential playoff foe is going to be an impressive test for the Firebirds, and a strong defensive effort gets it done. Early in the second, Craig Smith fires a one-timer from David Perron past Bobrovsky for his 13th goal of the season, and Philipp Grubauer makes it stand up.

2/27 vs Edmonton – 2-1 L (OT)
The final game of the month slips away in overtime. Ryan Strome and David Perron trade second period goals to account for all the regulation scoring, but Jujhar Khaira scores 2:03 into overtime to cost the Firebirds that second point.

And one more potential gut punch -- Rick Nash is being evaluated for a wrist injury. What's the only thing better than making a playoff push without your best player? Doing it without TWO of your best players!



MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 8-5-1
YEAR-TO-DATE: 35-23-5, 75 points
DIVISION: Still in 3rd place, behind Toronto and Tampa, tied at 79. Things have separated a bit below, as it's Florida 72, Boston 71, and Buffalo 69.
CONFERENCE: Also the same as last month: still currently 5th in points. Columbus 83, Toronto 79, Tampa 79, Pittsburgh 77, Atlanta 75, Carolina 74, Florida 72, and New Jersey and Boston are tied at 71 for the 8 seed.

TEAM LEADERS

GOALS: Kesler 23, Rick Nash 17, Sbruev 17, Riley Nash 15, Perron 14
ASSISTS: Perron 31, Kesler 28, Fast 27, Sbruev 25, Murphy 24
POINTS: Kesler 51, Perron 45, Sbruev 42, Fast 40, (both Nashes) 37
PLUS-MINUS: Riley Nash 13, Petrovic 13, Smith 12, Djoos 12, Murphy 11.


ON THE FARM
As a team, the Birmingham Bandits sit at 36-19-7, 3rd behind Syracuse (40-18-4, 84 points) and Utica (37-18-8, 82 points). The top five scorers are Simon 47, Yakupov 45, Martinook 42, Bennett 36, and Froese 36. Simon leads the team in goals with 20; Yakupov leads in assists with 33 (and is just barely in the Top 10 league-wide). Linus Ullmark is still having a good year now that he's healthy. Stats line is 24-12-3, .923 save percentage, 1.93 GAA. He’s one of the league’s top goalies in the rate stats; he's still outside the Top 10 in wins because of how much time he missed early in the season.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

February 2018: Around The League

I'm probably going to tone down the commentary in these updates and just post the figures unless something particularly jumps out or unless Atlanta players feature prominently.

STANDINGS


The Penguins might not be right -- there was a typo in the Excel sheet and I tried to correct it based on what I think it should be, but it could be off by a point or two. The notes I took last night say they had 77 points, but 35-20-8 makes 63 games and 78 points. I'm sure it'll come out in the wash next month.

LEAGUE LEADERS


Ovi was day-to-day with an injury when I was looking around, so that may have contributed to him falling out of the scoring lead (though he still leads in goals). I'll talk about trades separately, but note Max Pacioretty moving from Montreal to Minnesota. Also, LA having Doughty and Muzzin sitting 1-2 in plus-minus is kinda neat.

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev continues to make his case for the Calder, Svechnikov pushes past some of the other pretenders into a solid second, Filip Zadina becomes the newest 2018 draft pick to make noise, and Elias Pettersson still has weird defenseman numbers, but at least his total points are finally correct.

[BT2008]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Ugg down your two best players... Rooting for you..