Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Fire Brigade: Breaking Down The Trade Deadline

Cliff's Notes: I didn't get the deals I wanted, got a little flustered and made a few moves I'm not thrilled with. Won't sink the franchise, but also not making me all that excited, either.

Welcome to the Fire Brigade, your source for all the breaking news on your Atlanta Firebirds. I'm your host, Brock Whitney. As you know, the Birds hit a bit of a bump in the road this week as Ryan Kesler and Rick Nash both went down with injuries. Kesler is definitely going to be out for a while, and the medical staff is still evaluating Nash's wrist.

The moves we got were a little unexpected, as they almost decided to be buyers and sellers at the same time. On one hand, they sent 2nd round pick Filip Hallander to Buffalo to rent Jason Pominville, but then on the other hand, they traded away expiring contracts Jordan Martinook and Michael Del Zotto in separate deals.

We'll have our team of experts break all this down in a minute but first let's look at the deals. We have:

• Filip Hallander, an 18-year-old center selected in the 2nd round this past year to Buffalo for RW Jason Pominville.
• LW Jordan Martinook to the Tampa Bay Lightning for 22-year-old center Mitchell Stephens.
• D Michael Del Zotto traded to Chicago for a 2020 3rd-round pick.

So, our panelists as always, Logan Marx, Stu Kennedy, and Sarah Shaw. The floor is open.

Stu: Oh boy. I am not happy with these moves. I don't know if it's inexperience in the front office, or they just don't have an overall strategy, or maybe we'll be charitable and assume the injuries caught them off guard, but I can't make heads or tails of these moves. Picking up Pominville seems like a smart move -- he gives you a veteran presence and he's probably a minor upgrade over Pitlick. I can see that. But what does sending Jordan Martinook to a division rival get you? And if you're trying to stay viable for the playoffs, why send Del Zotto packing? It's not like the salary was doing any harm, and he comes off the books at the end of the year.

Logan: Well, I agree that the Del Zotto move doesn't really fit with the rest of it. But if you take the other two moves as a package deal, it sort of makes sense. They probably weren't going to get Buffalo to do expiring contract for expiring contract, so you send them a prospect in Hallander, and then the Martinook trade recoups that for a guy that's maybe a little more NHL-ready. It's not a drastic upgrade, but at the edges, you move talent from the left wing where you're already pretty deep to the right wing where you need it more, and you get a prospect who's maybe a little closer to contributing. Does it single-handedly replace Kesler? I would say no. But it's something.

Sarah: I think the thinking on Del Zotto is twofold. First, they took a step back after the Artem Zubov trade and I think they weren't crazy about going from the 2nd round to the 5th in 2020. I don't think they regretted the trade itself, but they wanted to maybe close that pick gap. But I also think they wanted to start moving forward with DeMelo or Koekkoek or maybe give Olofsson one last chance before his contract expires after the year, to see if one of those guys can be a contributor.

Stu: Why are they worrying about the 2020 draft now? You need draft picks, go trade for some draft picks later. Right now, there's a playoff race going on.

Sarah: Sure, there's a playoff race. I do think you have to look at the big picture, though. At the end of the day, it's still an expansion team. It's exciting that they're competing, but they're still pouring the foundation, the cement is still wet. Maybe they didn't take a huge leap forward, but they also didn't disrupt things either. They didn't take on some other team's problem contracts, like we talked about with Bobby Ryan. They didn't give away their best draft picks, like Boston did to get Henrique from the Ducks. I do think there's a danger where if you go too far too fast, you undermine the long-term goals, and they didn't do that.

Brock: That's a good point, Sarah. Look at Vegas last year. They generated a lot of excitement with their playoff run, but then they took a step back this year. Did that early success interfere with their long-term building in ways that they didn't intend?

Stu: I don't think anyone roots against winning, Brock.

Logan: Come on, Stu, that's not what he meant. However, to your earlier point about inexperience and learning curve, I will say this. I do think, talking to my sources within the organization, that it's a fair criticism that the market moved faster than they anticipated. I think they were looking to wait as long as possible and put something together in the last day or two of the month, and a lot of other teams had already made their deals by then. I think a lesson for next year and beyond is to be a little more aggressive, maybe not wait until the last minute to get something done.

Brock: So what does the team on the ice look like in the wake of these deals?

Logan: Well, a lot of it is still fluid until we know more about Nash's situation. I know they're reluctant to send anyone through waivers, so for the moment, nobody has been sent down. They're just going to manage scratches as best they can for now. There's a little internal.... I wouldn't even call it disagreement, but some back and forth. Some people want to stick with Pitlick and keep Pominville as insurance against further injuries, but the more prevailing sentiment is "you went to the trouble to get this guy, might as well use him". We're also seeing some interesting things at center where Letestu and Helm are both getting work at center. We'll see how that shakes out.

As far as defense, I'm told DeMelo is day-to-day at Birmigham, but he probably gets the call-up when healthy. If he's going to be out for a while, they might go with Olofsson or Koekkoek instead. Again, there's a sense that whoever they bring up will probably be with the team the rest of the way because of waivers, so they're willing to take a day or two to make sure they make the right choice. Bieksa and DeAngelo will just hold down the fort until then.

Brock: Now that we've discussed things from Atlanta's perspective, let's bring back Sarah Shaw to give us a rundown of how things looked across the rest of the league. Sarah, who was making the big moves out there?

Sarah: Well, the single biggest name on the move was former Montreal Canadien Max Pacioretty, who went to Minnesota for a package that included Matt Dumba, along with pick-shuffling on both sides. Boston was probably the single biggest buyer, making separate deals with Anaheim for Adam Henrique and Patrick Eaves; and with New Jersey for center Brian Boyle and goaltender Keith Kinkaid. St. Louis also went big, grabbing Josh Bailey and Thomas Hickey from the Isles, and making a smaller deal with the Senators. San Jose grabbed Clayton Stoner from the Vegas Golden Knights. Ottawa and New Jersey were probably the most aggressive sellers out there, both making multiple deals. A few other teams got involved with smaller roster tweaks.

FULL TRADE LIST

Numbers in parens are age/OVR (as best I've scouted it), Potential.

• 2/1 - Firebirds trade D Adam Larsson (26/83/T4) and LW Brandon Pirri (27/78/T9) to Rangers for C Kevin Hayes (26/82/T6) and D Tony DeAngelo (23/77/T4)
• 2/6 - Kings trade D Markus Phillips (20/??/??) and their 2020 1st-round draft pick to Devils for LW Marcus Johnansson (28/83/T6), C Torrey Mitchell (34/76/B6) and New Jersey's 2020 3rd-round pick.
• 2/8 - Coyotes trade D Andrej Sustr (28/81/T4) and a 3rd-round pick in 2019 (orig: CGY) to Flyers for LW Michael Raffl (30/77/B6), their 2nd-round pick in 2019, and two other draft picks.
• 2/11 - Bruins trade their 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2019 to Devils for C Brian Boyle (34/80/T9) and G Keith Kinkaid (29/81/FS).
• 2/14 - Wild trades D Matt Dumba (24/85/T4), their 2nd round pick in 2019, and two other draft picks to Canadiens for LW Max Pacioretty (30/82/Elite), Montreal's 2nd-round pick in 2020, and two other draft picks.
• 2/14 - Blues trade C Ty Dellandrea (18/??/Elite) and their 4th round pick in 2020 to Senators for D Fredrik Claesson (26/80/T6) and Ottawa's 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2020.
• 2/16 - Maple Leafs trade LW Artem Zubov (19/62/T6) to Firebirds for D Eric Gustafsson (30/78/7D) and the Firebirds' 3rd and 4th-round picks in 2020.
• 2/17 - Blues trade C Jordan Kyrou (20/68/T9), C Robert Thomas (19/??/B6) and their first-round pick in 2020 to Islanders for LW Josh Bailey (29/85/T6) and D Thomas Hickey (30/82/T4).
• 2/18 - Panthers trade RW Jamie McGinn (30/77/T9) and a 4th-round pick in 2020 to Senators for LW Alexandre Burrows (37/77/B6) and a 3rd-round pick in 2019 (orig: PIT)
• 2/19 - Oilers trade their 2nd and 4th-round picks in 2020 to Canucks for D Carl Gunnarsson (32/84/T4) and the Canucks' 2nd and 4th round picks in 2020.
• 2/19 - Panthers trade D Brandon Davidson (27/78/T6), a 3rd-round pick in 2019 (orig: PIT), and their 7th-round pick in 2020 to Stars for RW Chris DiDomenico (30/78/T9) and the Stars' 3rd-round pick in 2020.
• 2/21 - Bruins trade RW Zach Senyshyn (22/77/T6) and their 1st and 2nd round picks in 2020 to Ducks for C Adam Henrique (29/84/T6) and RW Patrick Eaves (34/80/B6).
• 2/24 - Hurricanes trade C Matt Cullen (42/77/B6), C Vaclav Skuhravy (40/76/B6), and their 3rd round pick in 2020 to Devils for Ben Lovejoy (35/79/T6) and the Devils' 4th-round pick in 2020.
• 2/24 - Sharks trade LW Rudolfs Balcers (21/74/B6) and D Jeremy Roy (21/76/Elite) to Golden Knights for D Clayton Stoner (34/79/T6), D Brad Hunt (30/76/7D), and a 2nd round pick in 2020 (orig: PIT).
• 2/26 - Canadiens trade C Markus Kruger (28/79/B6) and a 2nd-round pick in 2019 (orig: MIN) to Flames for LW Michael Ferland (26/81/T6) a 2020 3rd round pick, and two other draft picks.
• 2/27 - Penguins trade C Linus Olund (21/58/B6), and their 3rd and 4th round picks in 2020 to Flyers or LW Michael Mersch (26/71/B6) and the Flyers 3rd-round pick in 2020.
• 3/1 - Firebirds trade C Filip Hallander (18/61/T9) to Sabres for RW Jason Pominville (36/80/T9).
• 3/1 - Firebirds trade LW Jordan Martinook (26/78/T9) to Lightning for c Mitchell Stephens (22/74/T9).
• 3/1 - Firebirds trade D Michael Del Zotto (28/79/T6) to Blackhawks for a 3rd-round pick in 2020.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

March 2019: Birds Soar Into Playoffs, Catch Toronto For Atlantic Lead



The month starts with the roster in weird shape. Kesler out for a while. Rick Nash out for... who knows? Down to six defensemen, but would rather ride it out because DeMelo is the guy I want to bring him up, but he's day-to-day and I can't promote him because he's injured. The CPU and I can't reach an agreeement on whether Pominville is really an upgrade on Pitlick. Let's get to work.

3/2 at Dallas – 3-2 W (SO)
The retooled Firebirds start March with a scrappy shootout win in Dallas. The visitors fall behind 2-1 but Mark Letestu gets the equalizer early in the third and Jesper Fast wins it in the shootout.

Between games, we got a bit of good news on Rick Nash; turns out he’ll only be out a few more days – the 7th, specifically. We can hang on that long. DeMelo will also be back shortly, so we’ll try to plow with six defensemen until he’s ready for a callup.

3/5 vs Ottawa – 4-3 W (SO)
Despite being out of contention, Ottawa proves to be surprisingly feisty, but the Firebirds eventually come out on top. The Sens roll up a 3-0 lead by the early stages of the 2nd, before the Firebirds get things going, but then Lowry, Healthy Nash, and Lowry again get it back. Craig Smith provides the difference maker in penalty shots.

We’ve got a stretch coming up against the league’s elite – Nashville, Washington, Toronto, and Chicago are our next four – so this is the right time to get Rick Nash back. The CPU chooses Darren Helm as the odd man out, and I have no reason to dispute that. Though the CPU favors Pitlick over Pominville, and I kinda want to play the rental acquisition.

3/7 at Nashville – 3-2 L (SO)
Twice the Firebirds took leads on the Predators (including a shorthanded goal by Craig Smith), but they could never get that extra insurance goal, and twice the Predators answered back. Atlanta even had a chance to win in OT as Perron had wide open net on a rebound but couldn’t lift the puck over a sprawled-on-the-ice Pekka Rinne’s pad. Filip Forsberg scored the only goal of the shootout for the Nashville win.

3/8 vs Washington – 5-1 W
Washington puts backup Pheonix Copley in net and the Firebirds take fuil advantage, putting 38 shots on the rookie. Perron and Smith stake the Birds to a 2-0 first-period lead, and three goals in the third make it the margin more comfortable.

3/10 at Toronto – 6-3 W
Toronto is one of the league’s best teams and Frederik Andersen is one of the league’s best goalies, but tonight, they got absolutely shelled. HATS OFF to David Perron, who scores the first hat trick in team history (and hit the pipes on a 4th); Hayes, DeAngelo, and Riley Nash also scored. Wide open offense on both sides as the Leafs put 44 shots on Grubauer.

And before our next game, reinforcements arrive from the minors as Dylan DeMelo, Scourge Of The Trade Block, gets the call from Birmingham. He’ll wear #74 and start on the third pair with Tony DeAngelo. THE KILLER De’S!

3/12 at Chigago – 4-1 L
Win #40 on the season is a doozy. OK, I’m not sure how to process this. 5-0-1 for the month against (mostly) the best teams in the league… without Ryan Kesler. Hayes, Pominville (his first point, I believe), Riley Nash, and Fast with the goals. Duncan Keith scored with 4:41 left in the game to spoil the shutout. (NOTE: I’m realizing I forgot to look at Pominville’s stats in the immediate wake of his trade, and if the game has splits, I haven’t seen ‘em, soI’ll allow 11 G 22 A as the closest thing to a starting point. It’s not like he’s going to go off for 30 and end up in the league leaders anyway.)

Between games, Nashville waives defenseman Paul LaDue. On one hand, I could use the organizational depth after the deals I made, and I have salary cap space. On the other hand, not sure I need to tie up 3 years @ $1.325M for a guy who’s pretty much done growing and whose ceiling appears to be roster filler. I’d rather have my filler either have room to grow, or shorter contracts.

3/15 at Minnesota – 2-1 W
Minnesota did add Max Pacioretty to give them some scoring punch, but it doesn’t help them here as Grubby turns back 35 of 36 shots. Riley Nash and Fast score in the first and the Firebirds coast from there.

3/17 at Anaheim – 3-1 W
KEEP ‘EM COMING. Cogliano and Kerdiles trade goals in the 1st but Lowry and Smith add insurance.

Draft rankings? You’re bothering me with this NOW?

3/18 vs Buffalo – 3-2 L
Ah well. Had to end some time. Zemgus Girgensons scores with 4:19 left to hand Atlanta its first defeat of the month. Hayes gets his 19th and Cogliano his 14th in the losing effort. At least it wasn't Hallander scoring the game-winner?

3/22 vs Florida – 3-2 L
Back to back losses. Colton Sceviour gives Florida the lead they’ll never relinquish early in the second, and Aleksander Barkov adds an insurance goal early in the third. Tony DeAngelo gets one back a few minutes after Barkov's, but the equalizer never comes.

A few days earlier than advertised, KESLER’S BACK! Of course, robbing Peter to pay Paul, Craig Smith goes down with an injury, so we’re still not at full strength. For the moment, just means Pominville and Pitlick both get to play.

3/24 at Calgary – 3-1 W
Exciting finish as Jesper Fast scores with 51 seconds left, and Kevin Hayes adds an empty-netter to provide some cushion.

3/25 vs New York Rangers – 3-2 W
Atlanta rolls out to a 3-0 lead and things are looking good. But the Rangers’ Pavel Buchnevich scores a pair (24 and 25 on the season) in the second period to put the Rangers back in the hunt. However defense (on both sides wins out down the stretch) and 3-2 stands up as the final margin.

Craig Smith will be out a few more games (broken nose – April 1) and Alex Petrovic joins him on the shelf with a sore knee (April 4). Neither represents a crisis, just means Pitlick and Bieksa (respectively) will get a few starts.


3/28 at San Jose – 4-2 W
The Firebirds are OFFICIALLY headed for the post-season. DeMelo and Perron score within the first five minutes, and after the Sharks’ Tierney cuts the lead to 2-1, Djoos and Fast score late in Period 2 to restore a margin of safety. At 96 points, they can fall no further than 3rd place, so.... they're in.

And ohbytheway Craig Smith is already back. Don't want to complain about a positive development, but our team doctor needs to work on his estimates.

3/29 at Pittsburgh – 3-2 L (SO)
Ryan Kesler picks a dramatic time to score his first goal since returning, scoring with 42 seconds left to tie the game and send it to overtime. But the Pens’ Olli Maata proves to be the unlikely hero of the shootout, forcing the Firebirds to leave town with one point instead of two.

So there it is. The single biggest development is making the playoffs, but we've also caught up to Toronto for the division lead. The month ends with us and Toronto at 97 points, and Tampa Bay at 96, and then a BIG jump to the rest of the field, meaning we'll finish somewhere between 1st and 3rd. The last five games are all about seeding, but we'll look at the playoff picture more in a separate note.

MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 10-2-2
YEAR-TO-DATE: 45-25-7, 97 points
DIVISION: Division: TIED for first with Toronto. Tampa sits one point back at 96, but then there’s a big drop off – Florida 85, Boston 84, Buffalo 81. Montreal 80. Clinched a Top 3 finish, so we’re definitely going to the playoffs.
CONFERENCE: : 4th overall in points, but tied with Toronto. Columbus 104, Pittsburgh 102, Toronto 97, Atlanta 97, Tampa Bay 96, Carolina 89, Islanders 88, Panthers 85. ITPST, we would host Tampa Bay.

TEAM LEADERS

POINTS: Perron 60, Kesler 55, Fast 52, Rick Nash 46, Sbruev 46
GOALS: Kesler 24, Rick Nash 20, Hayes 20 (9 for us), Perron 19, Riley Nash 18, Fast 18, Sbruev 18
ASSISTS: Perron 41, Fast 34, Kesler 31, Sbruev 28, Riley Nash 27
PLUS-MINUS: Djoos 22, Petrovic 17, Riley Nash 14, Murphy 13, Perron 11.


ON THE FARM
Birmingham hasn’t clinched a playoff spot but are sitting in 2nd in their division and 4th in the Eastern conference. Nail Yakupov moved in front of Dominik Simon for the team scoring lead, 63-60, but Simon still leads the team in goals with 25. Ullmark’s rate stats have dipped a little – I’d probably blame trading Gustafsson and calling up DeMelo more than Ullmark’s innate talent level.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

March 2018: Around The League

STANDINGS


ATLANTIC: The division has settled on a Top 3, they just need to decide what order they'll finish in. Toronto and Atlanta at 97 points, Tampa at 96 -- it's anyone's game. The Florida Panthers, currently at 85 points, would get in as the lower wild card, but there are still a lot of teams in the hunt. Ottawa is technically the only team eliminated.

METRO: Columbus and Pittsburgh definitely in are battling for the division title and probably home ice through the Conference Final. Carolina's 89 points currently have them in the #3 seed and the Isles at 88 have the inside track for the other wild card. Again, the only team technically eliminated is Philly, though a few others have a really unlikely path.

CENTRAL: Nashville and Chicago are in and are probably going to finish 1-2. Winnipeg has the inside track for the 3 seed and COULD mathematically catch them, but it's pretty close to "Jets have to win out/Preds and Hawks have to lose out" territory, so probably not. Officially nobody's eliminated, though the bottom three teams (Red Wings 78, Wild 79, Avs 80) are on death's door. The Blues at 87 would get the higher wild-card slot at the moment.

PACIFIC: Nothing's settled (except for poor Calgary) but a top three of LA, Arizona, and Edmonton are starting to gel, and most of the other teams would have to get pretty lucky to sneak into 3rd. San Jose has dibs on the low wild card, but it's a pretty shaky grip.

In fact, here... have a bonus data visualization:



The bars represent the range of potential points each team could generate based on their remaining games. Bottom of the bar is where they are now; top of the bar is the best they could do if they won out.

LEAGUE LEADERS



CALDER WATCH


Sbruev had a slow month, but so did some of the other leaders, so he's probably got enough cushion to win the rookie scoring title -- that and his team making the playoffs are a pretty strong Calder case. Ottawa's Zadina is the big mover here, and Elias Pettersson has finally started scoring goals.

Pheonix Copley is the only goalie who would qualify for the leaderboards in the rate stats, but he's not plaing that well -- sub-.500 record and a GAA around 3.40. Don't think that's Calder material, though I could be wrong.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

April 2019: Firebirds Come Up Short In Atlantic, Settle For 2nd



I’m going to do these last few games a little differently, tracking the Firebirds and the rest of the league in quasi-realtime. It’s an experiment. The first few days are a bit wordy while there’s a lot of teams to track, but it thins out after a few days.

Setting the table, the Firebirds are battling for seeding. Conference champs/home ice throughout is mathematically possible for a few more games, but really unlikely unless Columbus, Pittsburgh, and Toronto ALL crater and Atlanta wins out or close to it. Really, we’re focusing on the division where we’re in a dead heat with Toronto and one point (and one game in hand) ahead of Tampa.

League-wide, I’ve organized it into four categories: In (guaranteed one of the top three slots in the division), Bubble (Top 3 or Wild Card), WC only, and Eliminated. Here’s how things stand at the start of April.
EASTERN CONFERENCE

• IN: CBJ 104, PIT 102, TOR 97, ATL 97, TB 96
• BUBBLE (WC or Top 3 possible):CAR 89, NYI 88, NJ 83, WSH 81, NYR 80
• WILD-CARD ONLY: FLA 85, BOS 84, BUF 81, MTL 80
• ELIMINATED: OTT 63, PHI 63

WESTERN CONFERENCE

• IN: NSH 96, CHI 95
• BUBBLE (WC or Top 3 possible):LA 92, ARI 92, EDM 90, WPG 88, STL 87, SJ 84, ANA 84, DAL 84, COL 80, MIN 79, DET 78
• WILD-CARD ONLY: VAN 80, VGK 79
• ELIMINATED: CGY 60

Let’s get to it!

APRIL 1 – 7 CLINCHED, 3 ELIMINATED, 22 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Atlanta in action at Detroit – the Red Wings aren’t eliminated, but their backs are against the wall. Early action is pretty even (2-2 through 1), but the Firebirds pull away in the 3rd – Kevin Hayes, Dylan DeMelo, and an empty-netter by Cogliano end the Wings’ divisional hopes and make their wild-card chances pretty slim. 5-2 W.

ATLANTIC (TOR 99, ATL 99, TB 96): Toronto beats the Hurricanes 4-3 to stay tied with Atlanta at 99 points. Tampa is not in action.

METRO (CBJ 106, PIT 102, CAR 89, NYI 88, WSH 83, NJ 83): Columbus beats Pittsburgh head-to-head 4-2, firming up their lead and putting the Jackets’ on the brink of home ice throughout. Carolina’s loss wastes their game in hand for the #3 position but still lead the Isles by a point. The Rangers lose to the Jets, moving them from the bubble to wild-card only; they can no longer catch Carolina.

WILD CARDS (NYI 88, BOS 85, FLA 85, WSH 83, NJ 83, BUF 81, NYR 80, MTL 80): Islanders still hold the high wild card at 88. Boston suffered an overtime loss to San Jose, but it’s good enough to catch Florida for the lower wild card for now at 85. Washington beat Montreal, but both are still viable for now.

CENTRAL (NSH 98, CHI 95, WPG 90, STL 87, DAL 84, COL 82): Predators beat the Kings 2-1, using their game-in-hand to widen their lead on Chicago. Winnipeg’s win solidifies their claim on the 3 spot, though they haven’t clinched yet. Minnesota and Detroit fall from bubble to wild-card only, and just barely since San Jose’s win moved the bar for the lower wild card to 86 points.

PACIFIC (LA 92, ARI 92, EDM 90, SJ 86, ANA 84): LA lost their game-in-hand, San Jose’s win keeps them mathematically viable. Still mostly wide open.

WILD CARDS (STL 87, SJ 86, DAL 84, ANA 84, COL 82, VAN 80, MIN 79, VGK 79, DET 78): Still wide open, though Detroit, Minnesota, and Vegas are pretty much at the brink of elimination thanks to San Jose’s win.

CLINCHED: NONE
ELIMINATED: NONE, though Rangers, Wild, and Red Wings fall from division bubble to wild-card only.

APRIL 2 – 7 CLINCHED, 3 ELIMINATED, 22 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Not in action.

ATLANTIC (ATL 99, TOR 99, TB 96): Toronto loses. Tampa not in action. Buffalo beat the Rangers to keep their wild card hopes alive. Florida lost, giving Boston a game in hand again. And just to be a completionist, Ottawa went down in overtime.

METRO (CBJ 106, PIT 104, CAR 89, NYI 88, WSH 83, NJ 83): The Pens beat Anaheim 4-3 in the shootout to gain back ground on Columbus. The Rangers’ loss to Buffalo all but eliminates them. Washington not only lost their game to Dallas 6-2, but Ovechkin is injured for 7 weeks, so… draw what conclusions you will about their chances going forward.

WILD-CARDS (NYI 88, BOS 85, FLA 85, WSH 83, NJ 83, BUF 83, NYR 80, MTL 80): No change in the numbers, but Buffalo helped themselves; the Panthers, Rangers, and Caps did not.

CENTRAL (NSH 100, CHI 96, WPG 90, STL 87, DAL 86, COL 82): Nashville beats Chicago in overtime to reach 100 points and solidify their lead. Dallas and wins to stay on the fringes of the #3 discussion and also ties San Jose for the second wild-card. Minnesota and Detroit win to keep their wild card hopes on life support.

PACIFIC (LA 92, ARI 92, EDM 92, SJ 86): Edmonton wins to make it a 3-way tie in the Pacific. San Jose loses but Anaheim’s shootout loss coupled with Edmonton’s win means they’re out of divisional consideration.

WILD-CARD (STL 87, SJ 86, DAL 86, ANA 85, COL 82, MIN 81, DET 80, VGK 79). Unchanged. Dallas tied SJ in points, but SJ still wins the tiebreak for now.

CLINCHED: NONE
ELIMINATED: NONE, though Anaheim leaves the bubble and becomes wild-card only.

APRIL 3 – 7 CLINCHED, 3 ELIMINATED, 22 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: The Arizona Coyotes come to town and hand the Firebirds a 3-2 loss in overtime. On one hand, it opens up their first real lead in the Atlantic and officially makes it a 100 point season; on the other hand, every point is precious this time of year. Oliver Ekman-Larsson sidesteps the shootout with 39 seconds left in extra time. 3-2 L (OT).

ATLANTIC (ATL 100, TOR 99, TB 96): Toronto not in action. Tampa loses – they’re still mathematically in it, but their window is closing. An Atlanta win or Tampa loss eliminates them from the division title.

METRO: (CBJ 108, PIT 104, NYI 90, CAR 89): Columbus’ win over the Flyers ensures that whoever wins the Metro – they or Pittsburgh -- will win the Presidents’ Trophy and have home ice throughout the playoffs. The Islanders beat Colorado in overtime to pass Carolina and move into the third spot. It’s not clinched, but it reduce the #3 spot to a two-team race, since nobody else can reach the Isles’ 90 points.

WILD-CARDS (CAR 89, BOS 87, FLA 85, WSH 83, NJ 83, BUF 83): Now we’re starting to see some clarity. Boston beats the Devils 4-2 moving the lower wild-card to 87 points, which ends the post-season hopes for the Rangers and Canadiens.

CENTRAL (NSH 100, CHI 96, WPG 92, STL 89, DAL 86): Winnipeg’s win clinches at least a playoff spot – I’ll let the game grind out the tiebreaks, but even if they lost their remaining games, their 92 points would still be good enough for a wildcard. St. Louis and Dallas still might have a chance to sneak into that #3 spot, but it’s fading.

PACIFIC (LA 94, ARI 94, EDM 92, SJ 86): Apparently all three teams at the top clinch playoff spots. I don’t know the tiebreaks, but I’ll leave SJ on here for now; maybe they could grab the #3 from Edmonton or maybe they can’t.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 89, SJ 86, DAL 86, ANA 85, COL 83, MIN 81, VGK 81, DET 80). I suspect Detroit is mathematically eliminated but I can’t prove it, and… it’ll probably work its way out in the wash.

CLINCHED: Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Arizona, and Edmonton are in, though Winnipeg could still be a wild card OR an automatic seed, and divisional position in the Pacific is still TBD.
ELIMINATED: Rangers, Canadiens.

APRIL 4 – 11 CLINCHED, 5 ELIMINATED, 16 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Not in action.

ATLANTIC (ATL 100, TOR 100, TB 96): Toronto suffers an overtime loss, pulling them even at 100 points, but giving the Firebirds game-in-hand advantage.

METRO: (CBJ 108, PIT 106, NYI 90, CAR 89): Pittsburgh whoops on the lowly Senators to keep the race for the Presidents’ Trophy alive until the last possible minute. Islanders and Canes both idle for that #3 seed.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 89, BOS 87, FLA 87, BUF 85, WSH 83, NJ 83): The leaders stay put, but behind them Florida and Buffalo win, and the Caps lose, putting them at the brink of elimination.

CENTRAL (NSH 102, CHI 96, WPG 92, STL 89, DAL 88): Nashville wins and Chicago loses, wrapping up the Central AND the #1 seed in the West for the Predators. Winnipeg and St. Louis are idle, Dallas wins to keep whatever divisional hopes they have alive.

PACIFIC (LA 94, ARI 94, EDM 93): Edmonton falls a point behind LA and Arizona with an overtime loss, but it’s good enough to lock in the top 3 as San Jose can no longer catch them in the divisional race.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 89, SJ 88, DAL 88, ANA 87, COL 83). San Jose pushing the bar to 88 snuffs out Minnesota, Vegas, and Detroit. Colorado is only still alive because they have a game in hand.

CLINCHED: Nashville – Central champs and #1 seed in the west. LA, Arizona, Edmonton all clinch top 3 automatic bids, but too close to call yet.
ELIMINATED: Minnesota, Vegas, Detroit.

APRIL 5 – 11 CLINCHED, 8 ELIMINATED, 13 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Boston comes to town in a game with playoff implications on both sides. The Firebirds are playing for seeding; Boston holds a slim lead for the final wild card. And it’s pretty quickly apparent which team is playing for its life and which is playing for seeding as Boston rattles off three goals in the first period. Things stabilize a little bit from there, but Boston continues to pad its lead as the Firebirds can’t put anything past Tukka Rask. 5-0 L.

ATLANTIC (ATL 100, TOR 100, TB 98): Tampa beats the Golden Knights to tighten things up. Everyone’s at game 80 – two to go.

METRO: (CBJ 110, PIT 106, NYI 92, CAR 89): The Islanders punch their ticket to at least the playoffs with points 91 and 92. They could still lost that 3rd seed to Carolina, but the worst that could happen is Carolina and Boston could pass them and push them to the #8 seed.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 89, BOS 89, FLA 87, BUF 85): The Isles’ win makes Washington and New Jersey spectators the rest of the way. It’s basically. Florida or Buffalo still stand a slim chance of moving into the #8 seed but a lot would have to go right.

CENTRAL (NSH 102, CHI 96, WPG 94, STL 91): Winnipeg and St. Louis both win, putting Dallas out of the divisional picture for good and on the outside of the wild-card picture.

PACIFIC (ARI 96, LA 95, EDM 93): This looks like it’s going to go down to the last day, but for today, it’s Arizona with the slim lead.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 91, SJ 88, DAL 88, ANA 87, COL 85). About the same as yesterday. Colorado won, so their slim path to the 8 seed still exists for one more day.

CLINCHED: Isles clinch a playoff berth, though like Winnipeg, it could be a divisional spot or a wild card.
ELIMINATED: New Jersey, Washington.

APRIL 6 – 12 CLINCHED, 10 ELIMINATED, 10 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Not in play.

ATLANTIC (TOR 102, ATL 100, TB 98): Toronto rights the ship with a win and briefly pulls back into the lead. Atlanta and Tampa have the night off.

METRO: (CBJ 110, PIT 108, NYI 92, CAR 89): Pittsburgh wins their 50th game of the season but Columbus has two chances to put it away. Isles and Canes not in action.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 89, BOS 89, FLA 89, BUF 85): The Canes and Isles are idle, but Florida gets a win to move up into a tie with Boston. The Sabers, on the other hand, lose and are hanging on by a thread.

CENTRAL (NSH 102, CHI 98, WPG 94, STL 91): Chicago likely locks up the #2 seed in the Central, as Winnipeg can do no better than a tie, and St. Louis can’t even do that. The Jets and Blues are idle.

PACIFIC (ARI 96, LA 95, EDM 93): Edmonton loses which doesn’t technically change the math – they could still win the division if LA and Arizona both lose out – but feels like they’re headed for the 3 seed.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 91, DAL 90, ANA 89, SJ 88). Dallas and Anaheim both pass San Jose for the #8 seed. As a side effect that puts Colorado out of their misery, even with a game in hand.

CLINCHED: Chicago probably clinches the #2 seed in the Central, but that’s about it.
ELIMINATED: Colorado.

APRIL 7 – 12 CLINCHED, 11 ELIMINATED, 9 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: The recently eliminiated Devils roll into town and likely play spoiler on the Firebirds’ hope of raising an Atlantic Division banner with a 3-0 win. New Jersey held a 1-0 lead into the third, but Travis Zajac and Taylor Hall scored within the span of about a minute midway through the third, and that was all she wrote. 3-0 L.

After the game, Calgary placed D Matt Bartkowski on waivers. He’s got a decent contract for next year (850k) and and could replace Bieksa as the swing defenseman or sit in the minors with no harm done, so whatever. Claim submitted, and we got him.


ATLANTIC (TOR 102, ATL 100, TB 99): The Lightning get an overtime loss, and they can no longer win the division – they’ll either be a #2 or #3.

METRO: (CBJ 112, PIT 108, NYI 92, CAR 91): The Columbus Blue Jackets wrap up the Presidents’ Trophy and home ice throughout the playoffs. I suppose that also backs Pittsburgh into a clinch of the 2 seed. Meanwhile, the Islanders lose and the Hurricanes win, so the race for the #3 seed will go down to the last days of the season.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 91, BOS 89, FLA 89, BUF 85): Boston still holds a tiebreak against Florida, but missed an opportunity to pick up ground. Buffalo… also still there.

CENTRAL (NSH 102, CHI 98, WPG 94, STL 93): The Blues beat the Jets head-to-head, which puts them in the playoffs as no worse than a wild card, and there’s still a chance to pass the Jets in Game 82.

PACIFIC (ARI 98, LA 97, EDM 93): Arizona and LA both win, which locks Edmonton into the #3 seed.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 93, DAL 90, ANA 89, SJ 88). The lesser of St. Louis and Winnipeg has locked in the 7 seed, so it’s Dallas, Anaheim, and San Jose for the 8th (though I think Dallas has tiebreak over San Jose, so they may be eliminated).

CLINCHED: Columbus claims the Presidents’ Trophy, making Pittsburgh the #2 in the Metro. St. Louis clinches at least the higher wild card, still in line for the division. Edmonton is locked into #3 in the Pacific, will play the loser of Arizona-LA.
ELIMINATED: NONE

APRIL 8 – 13 CLINCHED, 11 ELIMINATED, 8 STILL IN PLAY
FIREBIRDS: Not in play.

ATLANTIC (TOR 104, ATL 100, TB 99): With a 3-1 win over the Wild, the Toronto Maple Leafs claim the Atlantic Division championship. Tomorrow, Atlanta and Tampa will figure out who’s hosting their first-round playoff matchup.

METRO: (CBJ 112, PIT 108, NYI 92, CAR 91): Isles and Canes gonna leave it until the last day. Both are idle today. Pittsburgh loses what became a meaningless game to finish at 108 points on the year.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 91, BOS 89): Florida lost to the Anaheim Ducks and Boston holds a tiebreak over the Panthers, so they’re done. The lesser of Carolina-Isles and Boston will be the wild cards in the East.

CENTRAL (NSH 104, CHI 100, WPG 94, STL 93): Again, Jets and Blues will leave exact seeding for tomorrow night, but both are in the playoffs.

PACIFIC (ARI 98, LA 97, EDM 93): Arizona and LA both win, which locks Edmonton into the #3 seed.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 93, ANA 91). Edmonton formally bounces the Sharks and the Dallas Stars lose, so Anaheim comes from behind to clinch the #8 seed out west! St. Louis and Winnipeg will be the #7 seed (currently the Blues).

CLINCHED: We know all 16 teams, now we’re just figuring out the last few seeds.
ELIMINATED: The other 16 teams.

APRIL 9 – LAST DAY OF THE REGULAR SEASON
FIREBIRDS: The Blues come to town trailing the Jets by a point for the #3 spot in the Central; Atlanta squandered their lead in the Atlantic, but can still wrap up home ice in the first round. Atlanta winning simplifies; St. Louis winning complicates – for both races. Well, it’s over quick – Atlanta puts up 4 first period goals en route to an easy win. Atlanta is #2 in the Atlantic and hosts Tampa; the Blues will be the upper wild card and face whoever wins the West (Atlanta or LA). 6-1 W.

ATLANTIC (TOR 104, ATL 102, TB 100): Tampa did their part with a win, but it’s not going to matter.

METRO: (CBJ 114, PIT 108, NYI 94): The Canes win, but so do the Isles, so the Isles “win” the right to be slapped around by the 108-point Pens. The Hurricanes arguably get the better draw, going up against Toronto in Round 1.

EAST WILD-CARDS (CAR 93, BOS 90): Boston pulls a point out of an overtime loss to officially break the tie with Florida, but they’re still the #8 seed. They’ll get the regular-season Champs, the Blue Jackets.

CENTRAL (NSH 104, CHI 100, WPG 96): Don’t feel bad, Blues. Winnipeg won anyway. Winnipeg will travel to Chicago for round 1. St. Louis will face the west winner, which will be… (wait for it)….

PACIFIC (ARI 98, LA 97, EDM 95): Arizona backs into the West title – they lose, but so do the Kings. Arizona will get the Blues; the Kings will host the Oilers.

WEST WILD-CARD (STL 93, ANA 91). Finishing up the bracket, the Ducks get the Predators in Round 1.


MONTHLY SUMMARY

STANDINGS REPORT
MONTH: 2-2-1
YEAR-TO-DATE: 47-27-8, 102 points
DIVISION: 2nd in Atlantic Division.
CONFERENCE: : 4th in total points.

TEAM LEADERS

POINTS: Perron 64, Kesler 58, Fast 56, Rick Nash 50, Sbruev 50
GOALS: Kesler 24, Rick Nash 22, Hayes 22 (11 for us), Fast 20, Perron 20, 3 players at 18
ASSISTS: Perron 44, Fast 36, Kesler 34, Sbruev 32, both Nashes 28
PLUS-MINUS: Djoos 25, Riley Nash 15, Petrovic 15, Murphy 12, Smith 12, Perron 12.


ON THE FARM
The Birmingham Bandits finish with 99 points (46-29-7), good for 3rd place in the North Division. Assuming the minor league playoffs mirror the NHL, that would mean they face the Utica Comets in Round 1. Nail Yakupov finished 7th in the league in scoring with 65 points and 3rd in assists with 47. Dominik Simon led the team with 28 goals, also good for 7th in the league. Linus Ullmark finally cracked the Top 10 in wins and had 8 shutouts, good for 3rd in the league.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

April 2018: Around The League

STANDINGS


LEAGUE LEADERS


Chicago's Patrick Kane is your scoring leader with 98 points. Ovechkin missed the last few games with an injury, but still led the league in goals with 55. On the goalie side Bobrovsky and Andersen pretty much finish 1-2 in all the major goaltending categories.

CALDER WATCH


Sbruev wraps up the rookie scoring title. Enough to take home a Calder? We'll find out.

[SeattleBattleCat]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Nice work making the playoffs, good luck for the road ahead.

Can't believe Ottawa have Zadina! I wonder what Detroit got in exchange for that trade.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Nice work making the playoffs, good luck for the road ahead.

Can't believe Ottawa have Zadina! I wonder what Detroit got in exchange for that trade.

I don't think it was a trade, I was just assuming some combination of pre-draft rosters + adding an 32nd team throws off the logic and some guys end up in different places. I was just happy the Sabres still picked first and still got Rasmus Dahlin. Welcome to the NHL Multiverse!

[SeattleBattleCat]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

I don't think it was a trade, I was just assuming some combination of pre-draft rosters + adding an 32nd team throws off the logic and some guys end up in different places. I was just happy the Sabres still picked first and still got Rasmus Dahlin. Welcome to the NHL Multiverse!

lol NHL multiverse (it's actually quite fitting). ah yes, forgot that the 2018 class becomes re-drafted on expansion mode.

Go Firebirds!

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Stanley Cup Round 1 - Atlanta Firebirds vs. Tampa Bay Lightning



Duplicating the success of the Vegas Golden Knights, the Atlanta Firebirds were able to make the playoffs in their inaugural season, but the regular season ended on a bit of a sour note, as the Firebirds had the Atlantic division lead and coughed it up in the final days of the season. Time to put that in the rear view mirror and focus on the task in front of us.

The Firebirds come in with a better record, but if you look at the rosters, the Lightning probably have better players up and down the roster. Certainly Steven Stamkos is the best player on either team, and Vasilevskiy has been amongst the goaltending leaders all season. For being the favorites, this may be an uphill climb for the newcomers. But let's get to it!

Editor's Note: The format of these entries is going to be a little ragged because I couldn't really decide what info I wanted to collect. First couple games, I just grabbed the stuff I pulled for the regular season games, but then I decided I should capture more than that. I added scoring, and that was good, but then I decided for the playoffs, I'd even track the three stars. So you'll notice the detail gradually gets better, and I'll do a much better job next season and beyond.

GAME 1 (4/12, ATLANTA)
Game One begins with an exciting back and forth first period. The action is flowing freely, not a lot of stoppages. The Firebirds get the advantage in possession, but don’t have a lot of shots to show for it. In the second, things begin to swing back toward Tampa, and late in the 2nd, disaster strikes. The goal goes to Steve Stamkos in the books, but it’s an own-goal for Atlanta – Grubauer blocks the initial shot, but the puck trickles through to the goal line where Christian Djoos accidentally kicks it in before Grubauer can glove it. Unfortunately, the Firebirds never get it back in the 3rd, and the Firebirds lose the opener. 1-0 L.

DOWN ON THE FARM: The Utica Comets down the Bandits in overtime, 2-1, to take a 1-0 series lead.

GAME 2 (4/14, ATLANTA), TB LEADS SERIES 1-0
Brayden Point gets the scoring started 2:30 into the game, and the Firebirds are playing from behind for the second straight game, and things get worse when Yanni Gourde scores with 2:22 left in the first. Kevin Hayes finally puts the first puck of the series past Andrei Vasilevskiy midway through the second, but Nikita Kucherov restores the two-goal margin late in the 2nd. And that’s basically the lead that holds up, though Jesper Fast scores with 1:47 left to make it interesting. Atlanta puts 40 shots on net, but comes away with nothing to show for it, in the game or the series. 3-2 L.

DOWN ON THE FARM: Utica widens their series lead to 2-0 with a 5-2 win. Things not clicking at either level of the organization.

GAME 3 (4/16. TAMPA BAY), TB LEADS SERIES 2-0.
The series shifts to Tampa Bay, but things look promising for the visitors early. Alex Killorn opens the scoring 1:26 in, but Rick Nash answers back a few minutes later. Toward the end of the first, Atlanta finally gets its first lead of the series thanks to Riley Nash. Second period? Smooth sailing. Halfway through the 3rd, Dan Girardi bangs an equalizer past Grubauer, that eventually forces overtime. The Firebirds weather an early penalty kill (only the second penalty in a pretty clean game), and then with 5:34 left in the first OT, Andrew Cogliano FINALLY gives the Firebirds their first playoff win and guarantees the series will at least go back to Atlanta for a Game 5. Tip of the cap to Grubauer, who stopped 36 of 38 shots to keep the ‘Birds alive. 3-2 W (OT).

DOWN ON THE FARM: Utica wins 2-1, closing out a series sweep.

GAME 4 (4/18, TAMPA BAY), TB LEADS SERIES 2-1.
Annnnd the road team has now won every game so far. Tampa’s Ondrej Palat gets the lone 1st-period goal to start things off, but the Firebirds rattle off the next three – Sbruev and Fast in the 2nd, and Riley Nash with 6:26 remaining in the contest. Brayden Point scores with 2 minutes left to add some tension to the finish, but Atlanta hangs on and it’s a best-of-three. 3-2 W.

SCORING
0-1 – 1st, 4:01 -- Palat 1 (Johnson, Gourde)
1-1 – 2nd, 0:48 -- Sbruev 1 (Djoos, Mueller)
2-1 – 2nd, 3:38 -- Fast 2 (Perron, Kesler)
3-1 – 3rd, 13:34 -- Riley Nash 2 (Murphy, Smith)
3-2 – 3rd, 17:57 -- Point 2 (Gourde, Miller), 3rd

GAME 5 (4/20, ATLANTA), SERIES TIED 2-2.

Atlanta pitches a shutout to take their first series lead and move to the threshold of the second round. Craig Smith stakes the team to a lead a little more than 2 minutes in, and that’s all they would end up needing, though Riley Nash and Adam Lowry provided some breathing room with third-period goals. Grubauer naturally was the #1 star of the game, turning aside 32 shots. 3-0 W.

SCORING
1-0 -- 1st, 1:53 -- Smith 1 (Sbruev, Djoos)
2-0 – 3rd, 8:18 – Riley Nash 3 (Smith)
3-0 – 3rd, 18:52 – Lowry 1 (Pitlick, Hagelin)

THREE STARS
* - Philipp Grubauer (ATL) – 32 saves, 0.00 GAA, shutout
** - Craig Smith (ATL) – 1 goal (GW), 1 assist
*** - Adam Lowry (ATL) – 1 goal

GAME 6 (4/22, TAMPA BAY) – ATLANTA LEADS SERIES 3-2.

Kevin Hayes gets things started on the right foot for Atlanta, scoring 2:10 into the game. But Tampa answers later in the period, courtesy of Dan Girardi. Skip ahead to the third period and the action repeats itself – Sbruev give Atlanta a second lead, and the Girardi (again!) restores the tie a few minutes later. But with 3:31 to go in regulation, it’s Tampa’s Ryan McDonagh getting the game winner, and this series is going to go a full seven. (And oddly, that’s the fourth 3-2 result). 3-2 L.

SCORING
1-0 – 1st, 2:10 – Hayes 2 (Smith, Sbruev) PP
1-1 – 1st, 13:07 – Girardi 2 (Killorn, Johnson)
2-1 – 3rd, 3:05 – Sbruev 2 (Hayes, Smith) PP
2-2 – 3rd, 4:08 – Girardi 3 (Sergachev)
2-3 – 3rd, 16:29 – McDonagh 1 (Paquette)

THREE STARS
* - Dan Girardi (TB) – 2 goals
** - Ryan McDonagh (TB) – 1 goal
*** - Kevin Hayes (ATL) – 1 goal, 1 assist

GAME 7 (4/24, ATLANTA) – SERIES TIED 3-3.
Atlanta rolls out to a 2-1 first period lead on goals by Ryan Kesler and David Perron, and things are looking promising for the expansion team. But at the beginning of the third period, Yanni Gourde gets the equalizer, and it’s down to one period (plus overtime if needed). And then, with 5:12 former Firebird castoff Jordan Martinook scores what ends up being the series winner. NOOOOOO! (Hope that 2020 draft pick was worth it!) McDonagh adds an empty netter to avoid a 5th 3-2 outcome, and the Firebirds’ inaugural season is over. 4-2 L.


SCORING
0-1 – 1st, 0:26 – Kucherov 2 (Stamkos, Palat)
1-1 – 1st, 8:54 – Kesler 1 (Fast, Sbruev)
2-1 – 1st, 18:48 – Perron 1 (Fast, Petrovic)
2-2 – 3rd, 0:50 – Gourde 2 (Hedman)
2-3 – 3rd, 14:48 – Martinook 1 (Callahan)
2-4 – 3rd, 19:12 – McDonagh 2 (Martinook, Hedman) EN

THREE STARS
* - Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB) – 38 shots faced, 36 saves, .947 save %, 2.00 GAA
** - Jordan Martinook (TB) – 1 goal, 1 assist
*** - Victor Hedman (TB) – 0 goals, 2 assists, 4 hits

TB WINS SERIES 4-3

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

2018-2019 Closeout: Playoffs And Awards



STANLEY CUP
The 2018-2019 Stanley Cup champs are the Los Angeles Kings, who defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 4 games to 1. LA was probably the least sexy of the division winners, as they were the only one NOT to top 100 points. In a weird bit of symmetry, the Kings won all four of their series (Oilers, Blues, Jets, and the finals) by the same 4-1 margin. Meanwhile, Toronto swept the Hurricanes in Round 1, handled Tampa 4-2 in Round 2, and then swept the Pens to reach the finals.

Other notable results: Winnipeg ousting the #1 seed Predators 4-2 in Round 2 and Pittsburgh losing the regular-season battle to Columbus but beating them in the playoffs, 4-2.

CALDER CUP
The Stockton Heat (minor-league affiliate of the Calgary Flames) defeat the Lehigh Valley Phantoms (Philadelphia Flyers), 4 games to 2.

PLAYER AWARDS
Hart: Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Columbus -- 44-15-5, 11 shutouts, 1.74 GAA, .940 save percentage.
Norris: Drew Doughty, LA -- 10 goals, 58 assists, 68 points, +32, 129 hits, 120 blocked shots
Vezina: Bobrovsky
Calder: Nikolai Sbruev, LW, Atlanta -- played all 82 games, 18-32-50, -2
Conn Smythe: Jonathan Quick, G, LA -- 20 GP, 16-4-0, 2 shutouts, 1.83 GAA, .938 save percentage
Lady Byng: Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago
Masterton: Jonathan Ericsson, D, Det
Selke: Patrice Bergeron, C, Boston
Lindsay: Bobrovsky

AUTOMATIC (stats-based) AWARDS
Art Ross: Patrick Kane, RW, Chicago -- 98 points (41 G, 57 A)
Maurice Richard: Alex Ovechkin -- 55 goals
William Jennings: Bobrovsky -- CBJ 159 goals against

DRAFT LOTTERY/TOP 10
1. Montreal
2. Colorado (via OTT)
3. NY Rangers
4. Calgary
5. Philadelphia
6. Vancouver
7. Detroit
8. Las Vegas
9. Minnesota
10. Washington

NOTABLE RETIREMENTS (> 500 GP)
Zdeno Chara, David Clarkson, Matt Cullen, Johan Franzen, Tom Gilbert, Matt Hendricks, Marian Hossa, Jarome Iginla, Chris Kelly, Brooks Laich, Ben Lovejoy, Derek MacKenzie, Ryan Malone, Drew Miller, Dominic Moore, Johnny Oduya, Matt Stajan, Joel Ward.

(Odd: Jarome Iginla did not show up on the list of retired players, but then he DID show up on the list of retired players who became scouts.)

[SeattleBattleCat]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Sorry to hear about the early exit, but a great 1st season. Looking forward to seeing how the ‘chise goes next season.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Sorry to hear about the early exit, but a great 1st season. Looking forward to seeing how the ‘chise goes next season.

Thanks. I don't mind getting bounced -- going too far in Season 1 would've been kinda anticlimactic and left it nowhere else to go. The only thing I really mind is that it was Martinook with the winner -- the one trade I kinda-sorta regretted as I made it came back to bite me in the ***. Ah well.

I've got a "looking back/looking ahead" post coming to transition to the new season, but things are generally looking good for 2019-20. Lots of cap space, the guys leaving don't hit the core too hard... I think things should work out.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Fire Brigade: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Brock Whitney here, bringing you another edition of the Fire Brigade. As always, I'm joined by Logan Marx, Stu Kennedy, and Sarah Shaw. The Stanley Cup playoffs are over, the NHL Entry Draft is days away, and we wanted to get together to take one last look at the season just finished, and to look ahead at what 2019-20 might hold for the Firebirds.

To tie both of those together into one jumping off question: what went wrong in the playoffs and how do they need to address it going forward? Stu, since you almost always have a strong opinion on things, we'll start with you.

Stu: Sure, Brock. Save me a few minutes at the end, and I'll tell you what I think about that tie you're wearing too. I think what you had with this team is a fixable problem, but one you have to be honest about, which is that about half this team was playing one line or one defense pair over their heads. Some of those guys did a good job stepping up in the regular season, but in the playoffs, you need difference makers, and I don't think the Firebirds had enough of those guys. They went out and got Kesler, he's solid. Nicky Sbruev is looking like he's going to be a player. Rick Nash was one on his good days. But they need more talent, pure and simple.

Logan: I'd maybe refine what Stu is saying a little. I think coming out of the expansion draft, their talent curve was kinda flat -- there wasn't a lot of difference between the guys on the top line and the guys on the 4th line or even the top line or two in the minors. Arguably some of those 3rd and 4th line guys were BETTER than the equivalent guys on other teams, and that worked for them over 82 games. But when they got to the playoffs, they didn't have that Steven Stamkos who could put the game on his back, and I think you need that.

Sarah: You particularly see that talent flattening with the group of defensemen they picked up. Other than maybe Adam Larsson, it never felt like there was much gap between, say, Mirco Mueller, who spent most of the year as a second-pair guy, and Adam Pelech, who spent the whole year in the minors. Pelech was probably better than minor-league talent and could've started for a lot of clubs; Mueller was maybe a little stretched compared to most other teams' #3 guy. I think it's a dynamic that came about because that's where the available talent in the expansion draft took them.

Stu: But Sarah, I think that's my frustration with this management team, they were content to collect chips and never cashed in. Imagine if they'd taken Pelech and Mueller and traded them for a real here-and-now second-pair guy. You saw it start to click in their heads a little bit with the Kevin Hayes trade, but I would've liked to see them be a little more aggressive once they realized they were a real contender.

Logan: But the flip side is "how do you recognize that moment when you've got no frame of reference?". They had a hot first month, but then they slowed down and played .500 hockey up through when they traded for Kevin Hayes. Sbruev started hot but then he had something like four points in December. At one point, second through seventh in the division was a gap of like 5 or 6 points. I don't think you can fault a brand-new organization for taking some time to evaluate what they've got before they start making large-scale changes.

Brock: So what do they need to do going forward?

Sarah: I think they're actually in a really good position for 2019. Most of the guys they're losing aren't core guys. Hagelin probably walks at 4 million. Bieksa at 1.7 is probably gone. Pominville was a rental to begin with. Maybe they bring Rick Nash back, but maybe not. Depending on what you do with some of the younger RFAs, you could be looking at 20, 25 million under the cap. That lets you add two, maybe even three difference makers without disrupting the core.

Brock: Any thoughts on specifically who they might be interested in?

Logan: I think you probably want to look at a true #1 defenseman, someone who can run the power play and maybe even generate some offense from the back. A month ago I would've said Drew Doughty, but winning a cup and winning the Norris might have blown up the market for him. The better play might be Erik Karlsson -- doesn't have the same buzz around him. There's also a lesser couple guys like Mike Green or Anton Stralman, if the price tag on the big guns got too high.

Stu (nodding vigorously in agreement): Now you're talking. These kids are nice and all, but you need a #1 guy holding down the fort.

Logan: I'd also want to add a forward or two. Center looks pretty solid -- Kesler, Hayes, Nash, Lowry... that's shaping up as a solid group up the middle. Left wing, you've got a nice top two in Perron and Sbruev, but then it drops off to Cogliano and... Helm?... if the season started today. Right wing, you've got Jesper Fast, Craig Smith, and Tyler Pitlick, and you could put Nail Yakupov in that conversation, but none of those are #1 guys. Fast was probably a miscast #2 at best. So if I were the GM, my first phone call when free agency opens is either Blake Wheeler or Mitch Marner. Heck, depending what sort of dollars they're asking for, maybe both!

Sarah: You could look at left wings as well, but it might make for some weird locker-room dynamics to have either your scoring leader or the kid who just won the Calder bumped down to the third line.

Stu: I don't think one year on the 3rd line would kill Sbruev's development. Or maybe you play him on the right side -- he did a lot of that in his rookie year and it worked out just fine. He had a great year, but let's remember that he's a 19-year-old kid and he can play where the team needs him to play.

Brock: Does anyone in the minors come into the conversation?

Logan: Probably not unless there are other moves in the pipe or somebody you wouldn't expect gets moved. I could see Yakupov pushing Pitlick for a roster spot. Dominik Simon had a good year in the minors last year, but would you start him over Adam Lowry or Riley Nash? Probably not, and I don't think you'd rather have him playing in the minors and working on his game rather than sitting on the bench as a scratch three nights out of four. Maybe one of the defensemen looks good in camp and you shuffle that bottom pairing or give DeAngelo a year in the minors so he can get more minutes. But there's no guy that's beating down the doors to claim a job.

Sarah: It also wouldn't surprise me if rather than go out and get a veteran replacement for Kevin Bieksa, they just promote one of those defensemen from the minors as the new swing guy. Pelech, Koekkoek, maybe Olofsson if they retain his rights.

Brock: Lastly, we have the draft coming up. Any thoughts there?

Sarah: This draft represents a bit of a tough position for them to be in. They're in kind of a middle ground where they're no longer in that rebuilding "stockpile as many picks" mode that Stu hates so much, but they're also not in that "one piece away from a Cup" mode where maybe you sell off your draft to add that one last piece. I think they just have to be patient and take what this draft gives them.

Stu: They do have a lot of picks in the second round. I would like to see them take one of those seconds and package it to try and move up and get a guy who's NHL ready. Even if it's just to make a statement that "we're competing now". It doesn't even have to be Top 10 or Top 5... just something that's a little more aggressive than collecting future bottom-six guys.

Logan: I wouldn't go there in the first round, but I was thinking they could use a goalie to develop. Right now Grubauer is your starter and Ullmark is your future guy, but in a couple of years Ullmark is going to reach a point where you have to play him or let him walk. Or make him the starter and let Grubauer leave. Either way, it would be good to identify a guy who could be the next guy once you hit that decision point. They picked up Austin Quincey in 2018 but he doesn't look like he's going to be the guy they hoped he'd be.

Brock: Well, we'll start getting answers to all these questions in just a few days, but that's all the time we have for today. Until next time, I'm Brock Whitney, and this has been the Fire Brigade. Thanks for joining us.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

2019 Entry Draft

As a meta-point, I need better scouts. I'm looking at the draft pool and I don't have nearly enough solid leads. I do have pretty much A's or A+'s for region familiarity, but their overall talent just isn't that great.

CENTRAL SCOUTING TOP 10

1. RW Viktor Kovalev (18, Ukraine) – 6’3”, 189 -- Franchise Med PLY
2. D Ville Louhi (18, Finland) – 6’4”, 213 -- (unknown) DFD
3. LW Topi Tuomanen (17, Finland) – 6’0”, 192 -- Top 6 High SNP
4. C Mikael Oduya (18, Sweden) – 5’10”, 184 – (unknown) PLY
5. LW Toni Haken (17, Finland) – 6’2”, 208 -- Elite Med PWF
6. RW Matti Niinimaa (17, Finland) – 6’4”, 223 -- Elite Med PWF
7. C Kirby Dach (18, Canada) – 6’3”, 175 -- Power Forward – Elite Med PWF
8. C Raphael Lavoie (18, Canada) – 6’3”, 187 – Elite Med PWF
9. LW Ali Nicholls (18, USA) – 6’0”, 193 – Top 6 Med TWF
10. C Juha Viitanen (18, Finland) – 6’4”, 202 – Top 6 Med TWF

It's the Year of the Finns, as players from Finland occupy five of the top 10 picks. The top 10 picks unfold exactly per Central Scouting. Montreal gets the franchise kid, followed by Colorado (Louhi), NY Rangers (Toumanen), Calgary (Oduya), Philly (Haken), Vancouver (Niinimaa), Detroit (Dach), Vegas (Lavioe), Minnesota (Nicholls), and Viitanen to Washington.

As all this is happening, Atlanta explores some modest move-up deals into the mid-to-low teens, but nothing comes together. So we just do our draft au naturel. As mentioned above, in a lot of cases, I just had to rely on central scouting since my scouts really crapped the bed.

FIREBIRDS PICKS
1-25 – RW Matti Filppula (17, Finland) – 6’1”, 193 PLY – Elite Med, but not great scouting. I suppose it's also good to get in on that Year of the Finn action.
2-57 – D Michael Vukojevic (18, Canada) -- 6’3”, 205 TWD – His potential is Top 4, and he's fully scouted.
2-59 – LW Jakub Lauko (19, Czech Republic) – 6'1", 182 TWF – Top 9 TWF, Again, at least he's fully scouted.
2-61 – G Adam Forbes (18, Denmark) – 6’4” 200 HYB – he was the second-ranked goalie on the board, both had poor scouting, but he was showing Elite Med potential, which the other guy wasn't.
3-66 – D Thomas Harley (17, USA) – 6’3” 180 TWD – Well-scouted Top 4 Low (3 ticks) but not fully.
3-89 – LW Alexander Kondratiev (19, Belarus) – 5'11", 187 SNP -- Elite Low, but crappy scouting.
4-106 – C Brendan McMillan (18, Norway) – 6’2” 208 PWF – Top 6 PWF. This was a mild overreach since Central had him going in the 130s, but he was fully scouted as Top 6 Low talent, so why not?
5-153 – C Jan Jenik (18, Czech Republic) – 6’1”, 164 – Same story as McMillan, but Top 9 instead of Top 6.
6-185 - LW Reginald Silvester (19, USA) - 6'1", 192 PWF - From here on out, we're doing lottery tickets. Sort by potential, take someone who says Elite even if it's gray.
7-217 – D Jake Kustra (20, Canada) - 5'11" 172 OFD. OK I lied, this guy doesn't even have Elite potential, but I wanted an offensive defense prospect, and Central said this was the best guy left.
7-221 – LW Sergei Khabibulin (18, Russia) - 6'4" 211 PWF. As lottery tickets go, the thing I liked about this is his negatives were things that could be fixed like leadership or character. And that he's a big boi. But he's still a long shot.

To start, I only sign Filppula (3 years @ 925k) and Vukojevic (3 years @ 875k). I'll leave the rest at least until the main free agency period is over, possibly even training camp so I have a better idea of what I've got to work with.

[PFellah]

Re: Third Time's The Charm(?) - Atlanta Firebirds

Firebirds Go Big: Sign Karlsson and Wheeler, Break Bank For Johnny Hockey

OK, quick meta-thing. Somewhere along the line, I lost Tony DeAngelo to Calgary, though I never remember that happening. I assume the CPU tried to send him down as people returned from injury in April and Calgary got him on waivers. Irritating, but I'm not going to quit the whole franchise over it. We'll just call it a paperwork error at the league office and move on.

Looking first at our early targets:

• Mitch Marner re-signed with Toronto
• Drew Doughty wants over $10M a year. I want a #1 defenseman, but not that much.
• Blake Wheeler’s dollar demands are tolerable (about $7M) but he’s asking for 6 years, which would take him out to age 38.

On defense, Erik Karlsson is asking for about 8.8, but he really is head and shoulders above any other free agent. There are some intriguing options down around $5M – Tyler Myers, Nate Schmidt, Anton Stralman, Mike Green. So… I think the question becomes – one of the best players on the board, or two incremental upgrades?

On the wings, if you take Wheeler out of the picture, the choice is between blowing the bank on Artemi Panarin – 8.3M but you’re getting a guy in his prime – or dropping to a second tier that includes guys like Jacob Silfverberg, Gustav Nyquist, James Van Riemsdyk, and others in the 5-6M range. Again, if I get fancy with salary, I could look at deals for two guys.

Dollarwise, I have about $20M, but I haven’t signed most of my draft picks. I could grab $20M worth of players and just blow most of them off, I guess. Or I could try to move some salary to make room – giving particular side-eye to Darren Helm’s 3.875M contract. That’s a lot of money for a depth forward.

Day One I start with lowball offers on Karlsson (7.5M) and Nyquist (4.5M) just to test the market and get things going. Then something interesting happens...

Calgary wants Riley Nash, and offers a second round pick. My first reaction is no, but then, I have an idea. They have almost as much cap room as I do, so I could dump Helm on them, and I could also try to get DeAngelo back (as a bodies thing, I'd probably be better off with the pick, but I liked what I saw of Tony D in his limited stay). So I offer Nash and Helm for DeAngelo, and... it's surprisingly close. I add my 6th round pick, and it's a deal.

TRADE: Firebirds trade C Riley Nash, LW Darren Helm, and their 6th-round pick to Calgary for D Tony DeAngelo.

So now I have even more money to play with, but I do have a hole in my depth chart. Orrrr.... now we can get in on Wheeler AND Nyquist. (In which case it would just be Lowry and Letestu moving up the depth chart at center). So I drop Wheeler to a four-year offer sheet at about 6.5M per and put it in.

For a few days, there's not much movement. Wheeler rejects, so I bump him back up to 6.75M, but still the 4 years. I also make a half-assed run at Mike Green since he doesn't have any offers yet.

Finally, Wheeler signs on July 11. 4 years, 6.75M. Slot him onto the top line with Kesler and Perron/Sbruev.

Nyquist and Karlsson both reject. I try both again, giving what they're offering. But then I notice something. NOBODY has offered on Antemi Panarin. I don't think I can go all the way to the 8M he wants, but I scrape together a 6M offer to get in the mix, and I'll probably bump it up if Nyquist rejects again.

A few days later, Karlsson and Nyquist reject again. Karlsson, I go OVER his dollars (9M) but cut his years back to 4. (Grumbling a little that I didn't save that much vs. Drew Doughty at this point). Nyquist -- done with his ****, I'll put a few million of his bucks toward a Panarin play.

On 7/16 Panarin rejects and signs with the Ducks. (I wish there had been a way to increase the existing offer when Nyquist bailed... I knew 6M wouldn't get it done and would've happily matched if given the chance.) I go back to Nyquist one more time, since he hasn't signed yet, but not sure what else I can do if he already rejected an offer AT his asking price.

On the 18th Karlsson signs. Four years, 9M per. We have a #1 defenseman!

On the 19th we lose Nyquist to Vancouver. A little disappointing -- would've liked to push Jesper Fast to the 3rd line -- but pass-fail, we accomplished our to 2 goals. And, I'm likely going to end up with $10M+ in cap space again. Argh!

ENDGAME
At this point, I'm looking for bodies for the minors who might have some room to grow -- some more Dominik Simons basically. So, guys in the age 22-25 range, decent scouting that says they have a chance to be Top 6/Top 4 starters, and hopefully reasonable salary demands (preferably a million or less, though if I found the Right Guy, I could go higher).

Looking around the league, I find the following guys to put offers on, and to cut to the chase, they all accept.

• D Jake Dotchin (2 yr/1.75M) - the "Right Guy" I was willing to pay extra for
• LW Oskar Sundqvist (1 yr/900k)
• C Dominic Turgeon (1 yr/700k)
• RW Michael McCarron (2 yr/750k)
• G Ondrej Pavelec (1 yr/1.3M) -- OK, he doesn't fit the "young guys" motif, but for a starting-caliber goalie, he had ridiculous cheap salary demands. I figure he can be an upgrade on Halak as the backup goalie or a chip to trade later.

Ironically, Jordan Martinook also still fits the bill, but I can't. Bad memories, man.

There was also a half-hearted run at Patrick Sharp because he would've fit the bottom six, but it didn't go anywhere and he signed with Montreal.

ONE LAST LOOK AT THE TRADE BLOCK
I still feel a little guilty because have way too much money. I don't want to go right up to the cap, but I want to get a lot closer than I was last year. Looking at other team's trade blocks, I had a few ideas, one of which actually resulted in a trade.

CANDIDATE 1: Johnny Gaudreau. Calgary is going full rebuild and has Gaudreau on the block. He's kind of the perfect upgrade, and I love him in real life -- owning Gaudreau would make me happy on a more zen level -- but the asking price is through the roof and it would also suck up all my remaining cap space. I put Manny Greffe and my next two #1 picks in the deal just to see how it looked and and the bars said it MIGHT go through. I'm worried it would probably take Sbruev, and do I really want Gaudreau THAT much?

CANDIDATE 2: TJ Oshie. Washington is shopping T.J. Oshie, and it looks like Greffe could get it done straight up or close to it. May file that away as a potential all-in deadline deal.

CANDIDATE 3: David Backes. Boston looks like they're dumping salary has Backes on the block. Not as sexy as the first two names, but he's only a 1-year rental, and "backup goalie" is one of their needs. So I put Halak for Backes on the block and it's rejected, but fairly close. So I add parts -- expansion draft holdovers Gustav Olofsson and Curtis Lazar -- until they say yes.

TRADE: Firebirds trade G Jaroslav Halak, D Gustav Olofsson, and RW Curtis Lazar to Boston for C David Backes.

I think I'm done...

But it keeps picking at the back of my brain....

Ah, screw it...

TRADE: Firebirds trade C Manuel Greffe, RW Craig Smith, and their first round picks in 2020 and 2021 to Calgary for LW Johnny Gaudreau.

I decided to throw Smith in because it equalizes salary a little for this year and seems like a win-win. For the Flames, Smith is a starter-caliber player that will come off their books after the season. For me, it leaves me some cap room, and I can move Nail Yakupov up into a starting role. (Or maybe our #1 pick Filppula, though for the moment I assume he needs a year in the minors.)

Losing Greffe could be painful, and it'll be boring not having a first-rounder the next two seasons. But at the end of the day, it's Johnny F'ing Hockey. DO THE DEAL.