2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

[whoahello]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Because Philly has been more of a scoring defense which is hard to predict... or count on.

Okay thanks. So what do you think of the Rams defense?

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Okay thanks. So what do you think of the Rams defense?

I like the Rams D, unfortunately the offense isn't so great which makes it tough on them.

For the record, if you're talking this week, I'd take the Eagles D over the Rams... and I think they are a good play this week. My comment was only speaking on why people would be skeptical even though they are the top (or one of the top) defense in the league.

For example, I don't like playing RBs against the Lions D, or playing WRs against the Seahawks D. I really don't have a problem playing anyone against the Eagles D. BUT the offense scores a lot and quickly, so when they go against a team with a shaky QB, they're usually a good start (bc the other team will probably need to throw to keep up). Sproles can also score on special teams at any point, you just can't play them expecting him to score.

Hope that helps.

[whoahello]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

I like the Rams D, unfortunately the offense isn't so great which makes it tough on them.

For the record, if you're talking this week, I'd take the Eagles D over the Rams... and I think they are a good play this week. My comment was only speaking on why people would be skeptical even though they are the top (or one of the top) defense in the league.

For example, I don't like playing RBs against the Lions D, or playing WRs against the Seahawks D. I really don't have a problem playing anyone against the Eagles D. BUT the offense scores a lot and quickly, so when they go against a team with a shaky QB, they're usually a good start (bc the other team will probably need to throw to keep up). Sproles can also score on special teams at any point, you just can't play them expecting him to score.

Hope that helps.

Thanks, this helps a lot. I'm absolutely foreign when it comes to defense in the NFL (only watch for the offense). I have no idea which players are the pro bowl types and what not, so thanks again.

Yea Rams question is for week 13.

I have both KC and Phi D for this week... percentage wise, how would you split it between the two?

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Thanks, this helps a lot. I'm absolutely foreign when it comes to defense in the NFL (only watch for the offense). I have no idea which players are the pro bowl types and what not, so thanks again.

Yea Rams question is for week 13.

I have both KC and Phi D for this week... percentage wise, how would you split it between the two?

Grading, I'd give KC an A and Philly a B+.

Overall I think KC has the better defense, the better match up, and a style that milks the clock which limits the other team (OAK in this case) from too many chances to put up points anyway.

I think the Eagles will need sacks and turnovers to get a good score. They've got a good match up to make that happen, but KC's "floor" is safer, while they have about the same "ceiling".

The Rams at home against the Raiders is most definitely a good play... obviously much better than KC or PHI.

[whoahello]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Grading, I'd give KC an A and Philly a B+.

Overall I think KC has the better defense, the better match up, and a style that milks the clock which limits the other team (OAK in this case) from too many chances to put up points anyway.

I think the Eagles will need sacks and turnovers to get a good score. They've got a good match up to make that happen, but KC's "floor" is safer, while they have about the same "ceiling".

The Rams at home against the Raiders is most definitely a good play... obviously much better than KC or PHI.

Alright I'll go with KC. It seems like there's a better assurance for the Chiefs D than to hope for a mistake to happen in Philly.

But another question I have.... I always seem to pick the wrong kickers almost every week. What's your strategy when picking kickers? I tend to have a mentality of picking kickers who are on a good offensive team going up against a good defensive team, is this the right strategy? I have Matt Bryant (ATL) set for this week.

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Alright I'll go with KC. It seems like there's a better assurance for the Chiefs D than to hope for a mistake to happen in Philly.

But another question I have.... I always seem to pick the wrong kickers almost every week. What's your strategy when picking kickers? I tend to have a mentality of picking kickers who are on a good offensive team going up against a good defensive team, is this the right strategy? I have Matt Bryant (ATL) set for this week.

Man kickers are a crap shoot. I'll look at things like playing in a dome (or Denver) and of course, history (Prater's home is a dome but he's something like 3 for 10). I try to stay away from kickers on teams that have a chance of being shut out (JAX and OAK most weeks, some others depending on location and opponent).

It gets trickier when you get into the good teams. For example, the Broncos kicker is on a high powered offense so lots of scoring chances right? Well the Broncos tend to finish drives with TDs so he hasn't been very valuable this year. But I do like kickers on fast offenses that get lots of scoring chances (PHI, NO, GB for example)... and kickers on teams with "decent" offenses that may struggle in the red zone (BAL, ARI, CLE).

It's just really hard to tell on a weekly basis. If anyone else has some suggestions I'd love to hear them too.

[MattUM]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Personally I always just try to stick with one kicker who you know is reliable. I don't think constantly switching kickers is a good strategy to begin with. There's about 5 top guys that you're gonna want to target in the draft: Gostkowski, Vinatieri, Bailey, Tucker, and Hauschka. If you get any one of these guys you aren't gonna have to worry about your K spot and can plug them in every week. I'm okay with reaching a bit to get a quality guy. It'll save you from inconsistency and your waiver position.

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Personally I always just try to stick with one kicker who you know is reliable. I don't think constantly switching kickers is a good strategy to begin with. There's about 5 top guys that you're gonna want to target in the draft: Gostkowski, Vinatieri, Bailey, Tucker, and Hauschka. If you get any one of these guys you aren't gonna have to worry about your K spot and can plug them in every week. I'm okay with reaching a bit to get a quality guy. It'll save you from inconsistency and your waiver position.

The question is what makes one a quality kicker?

I agree with your list (haven't checked to see if there's anyone else I'd put there or not) but what are we basing that on? What can we use to predict these guys will do well?

That's important for those of us who weren't able to get one of those guys and for when those guys are on bye.

Actually, I'd add Parkey to that list. He's a guy I easily got with the last pick in one draft and picked up off of waivers right before the season in another. I targeted him bc of the Eagles ability to create scoring chances and knowing he's got a big foot to kick long FGs. He's proven it was worth it BUT I also targeted the rookie kickers on the Cards and Lions for similar reasons. Cards kicker started off well before falling off a cliff and Lions kicker lost his job quickly.

I really wish there was more of a science here. Same with defenses but I feel like kickers are more predictable at the top of the list while defenses from top to bottom are more predictable (for example, JAX kicker could get 10 points almost any week but it'd be a shock if JAX D got 10 points).

[MattUM]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

That list was more of going into this season. Parkey is indeed playing good, as is Crosby. They should be solid picks for next season.

There's a common trend that I see: they're all on high scoring offenses and they rarely miss. If you take my list of guys and add Parkey and Crosby, all 7 of them are on teams that place in the top 10 in scoring and only three kick below 90% with all three being between 85-88%. A good kicker has a very high percentage of made kicks, while a good fantasy kicker has a very high percentage made kicks with a high number of attempts. Nobody doubts that guys like Janikowski are good kickers, but you wouldn't want him on your fantasy team because he doesn't get the attempts. Both FGA and XPA.

But isn't this obvious? If your team scores a lot and you make all your kicks of course you will be a good fantasy kicker.

The biggest discrepancy comes in extra point attempts. When you look at FGA, only three FGA separate the top 10 kickers in the league in terms of FGA. However, of these top 10 FGA kickers, XPA ranges from 15 to 35. This is where good kickers become good fantasy kickers.

There isn't really a science and you just have to accept it for what it is lol. When drafting a kicker you want him to A) Be on a team that scores a lot of points with both TDs and FGs and B) Have a history of making most of his kicks. The only rule is to stay away from Peyton Manning's kicker.

[RoundingThird]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

I need 2 RBS:

Terrance West, CLE (@ ATL)
Isaiah Crowell, CLE (@ ATL)
Jonas Grey, NE (vs DET)

Right now, I have West and Crowell. Considering they just released Tate and considering how often the Browns run the ball, I think they should work.

[wwharton]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

I need 2 RBS:

Terrance West, CLE (@ ATL)
Isaiah Crowell, CLE (@ ATL)
Jonas Grey, NE (vs DET)

Right now, I have West and Crowell. Considering they just released Tate and considering how often the Browns run the ball, I think they should work.

Either way, you don't want to start Grey this week.

I do like the Browns backs against ATL though. I like Crowell more but they should both get a good number of chances.

[RoundingThird]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Either way, you don't want to start Grey this week.

I do like the Browns backs against ATL though. I like Crowell more but they should both get a good number of chances.

Thanks. I wasn't planning on starting Grey unless one of the Browns backs got hurt tomorrow in practice or something crazy like that.

[whoahello]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Okay guys about the kickers, I think I might have found the answer to determine their success (to provide points). I've decided to start Randy Bullock (vs Bengals) this week.

If it's a success I'll explain my 'formula'. If not, oh well at least I tried...

[MattUM]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

When you're saying you're starting x kicker, what does that mean? Do you pick up a new one every week to try to play the matchup? Is it just a bye week? Do you hold multiple kickers?

I'm wondering if that's even a successful or worthwhile strategy compared to just drafting/picking up a top ~7 guy and rolling with him all season. If you keep one guy it'll keep your waiver priority high and you have a good bet on what you're getting from him each game.

[mpbaseball22]

Re: 2014 OS "Who To Start" Thread

Man kickers are a crap shoot. I'll look at things like playing in a dome (or Denver) and of course, history (Prater's home is a dome but he's something like 3 for 10). I try to stay away from kickers on teams that have a chance of being shut out (JAX and OAK most weeks, some others depending on location and opponent).

It gets trickier when you get into the good teams. For example, the Broncos kicker is on a high powered offense so lots of scoring chances right? Well the Broncos tend to finish drives with TDs so he hasn't been very valuable this year. But I do like kickers on fast offenses that get lots of scoring chances (PHI, NO, GB for example)... and kickers on teams with "decent" offenses that may struggle in the red zone (BAL, ARI, CLE).

It's just really hard to tell on a weekly basis. If anyone else has some suggestions I'd love to hear them too.

Dome is a plus, if you are into streaming kickers make sure to look at the weather on sunday but one of my rules is I'll roster a kicker that is on a team that I dont have another player for.. example I have Phil Dawson for the 49ers and dont roster any other 49er player... Reason being if I had Frank Gore + Phil Dawson and Frank Gore is scoring TD's than Dawson isnt kicking FG. Its not perfect and really it still comes down to being a crapshoot unless you have one of the top kicker