OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

[Yrogergj24]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

That actually brings up an interesting exploit (perhaps?).

Race #1 - Pick (Insert Start 'n Parker Here), Get 1st pick
Race #2 - Pick Jimmie Johnson, Possible Win
Race #3 - Pick (Insert Start 'n Parker Here), Get 1st pick
Race #4 - Pick Jimmie Johnson, Possible Win
Race #5 - Pick (Insert Start 'n Parker Here), Get 1st pick
Race #6 - Pick Jimmie Johnson, Possible Win
Race #7 - Pick (Insert Start 'n Parker Here), Get 1st pick
Race #8 - Pick Jimmie Johnson, Possible Win

Etc...

This is an interesting strategy, however the points just simply wouldn't work out. In order to guarantee yourself the first pick, you'd need to pick someone who routinely finishes in the 40's. That pick would net you let's say 5 points on average. The next week, you'd pick Jimmie Johnson, who's current average this year is 36 points a week. This would net you on average 41 points for 2 weeks. So getting 41 points for 2 weeks would net you 451 points. Now to see if it works in practicality. For the sake of simplicity, we'll say that this person picked Joe Nemechek on non-JJ weeks. And, we'll say they started off picking Front Row Joe, since you started with the SnP.

1. Daytona - 1 point
2. Phoenix - 43 points
3. Vegas - 4 points
4. Bristol - 22 points
5. California - 12 points (You would miss out on JJ however, since Clint Bowyer finished worse, but we'll ignore this)
6. Martinsville - 48 points
7. Texas - 9 points (Again, no JJ, but now it's Jeff Gordon that's ****blocking you)
8. Kansas - 42 points
9. Richmond - 5 points
10. Talladega - 40 points
11. Darlington - 13 points
12. Charlotte - 22 points
13. Dover - 13 points
14. Pocono - 48 points
15. Michigan - 9 points (Jr. and Gordon finished lower than this)
16. Infineon - 35 points
17. Kentucky - 7 points
18. Daytona - 48 points
19. New Hampshire - 19 points (Logano & Kurt Busch finished lower)
20. Indianapolis - 44 points
21. Pocono - 7 points (You lucked out sequence wise this week)
22. Watkins Glen - 36 points
23. Michigan - You'd have Front Row Joe

NOTE: I'm doing this post completely in order, I'm not going back to fix anything that isn't a spelling error.

You would have 527 points and 3 wins, which would put you firmly in the wild card hunt and 111 points out of the Top 8. I severely underestimated the point total you'd have.

[superjames1992]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

You would have 527 points and 3 wins, which would put you firmly in the wild card hunt and 111 points out of the Top 8. I severely underestimated the point total you'd have.

Oh, yeah, this wouldn't be a strategy that would work in the Chase, but something that could potentially get you enough wins to get you into the Chase via the Wild Card.

I'm not crazy enough to try it, though. I'll just keep on being mediocre and missing the Chase.

[Redacted01]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Yea, yroger, you did more work than you had to. All you had to do was assume an average of 43 points for each race. Assume on average JJ gets you 38 points, maybe you miss a poor start or two and that could be even better; this year he has gotten 36.7 per race. Although he hasn't been as dominant as recently, you probably pick up 2, maybe all 4 of his wins. Outside of that, I'd expect no more than 5 points a race. So yes, you're right, it would do nothing for your points... but that was never the goal. Wins gets you a wildcard. You would only have 473 points after 22 races, which in our current standings, wouldn't make Mo last. However, if you managed to have 3, 4, hell, if Johnson wins another race or two between now and the Chase, you would be guaranteed in.

Also, it's probably a strategy you wouldn't implement right off. You'd do it a couple weeks into the season once you realize you are struggling at making picks or have had a lot of bad luck. You could always cut it off after 10 weeks or whatever if you picked up a couple of wins and then go for the top 8 again once you have your position in the wildcard established.

This also goes back to why I think you should only consider the top 16 for a wildcard. Giving an arbitrary point number never works. Look at the Chase when it started. They said the top 10 and anyone within 400 points. Well... no one was ever within that number so it was a useless standard. As long as a bunch of people don't drop out, you could never make the Chase using that strategy completely. But at the same time, we could enforce caps so no one could every really use it any way. I think a staggered system would work well. It is more to keep up with is the problem. You are only allowed to pick a guy X times if you are in group one, you get another Y times in group two, and if you are in the last group, might as well be unlimited because you are going to be hunting for different drivers any way. Like a reward for doing well since you don't have the advantage of early picks.

[Rules]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

You guys are over thinking this. Ban Jimmie Johnson picks and problem solved

I don't believe I picked him this year so it wasn't necessary. Put me down as believing few changes are needed for next year. Jimmie is not an automatic win just because someone picks him. If someone wants to exploit picking a bad driver to get a first pick the following should be banned if the pattern is repeated. So far I have not seen that tactic because everyone here plays using the honor system. That is why most of us are here at OS because we all want to play fair while having fun!

[Happy29]

For the second week in a row Cup series drivers have been replaced by drivers from iRacing


Sent from my iPhone 5 while taking the Browns to the Super Bowl.

[superjames1992]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Michigan is the new Bristol. Geez.

Bunch of lap one heroes out there!

[Redacted01]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Doing a quick check on this season. Nobody has taken Jimmie Johnson more than twice.

Letting Excel do some of the work...

franko - Bowyer, Menard, Jr. (3 times)
taco - Logano, Kurt Busch (4 times)
wednesday - Kyle Busch (4 times)
doc - Bowyer, Martin, Kurt Busch, Edwards, Gordon (2 times)
OPDriver - Hamlin (4 times)
Rules - Kahne (3 times)
Bighoff - Stewart, Logano (5 times)
Yroger - Kahne (4 times)
proof - Biffle, Jr. (3 times)
happy - Jr. (4 times)
cutter - Kurt Busch (5 times)
burghfan - Edwards (4 times)
cubfan - Edwards (3 times)
chaos - Newman (13!!!! times)
joshuar - Keselowski (5 times)
superjames - Gordon (4 times)
kodiak - Harvick (3 times)
bluengold - Kyle Busch (5 times)
Mo - Hamlin, Kenseth (3 times)

Now you see why I support variety. :wink:

[Cutter15]

I think I like this Jimmie Johnson strategy.

[superjames1992]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Yeah, Jimmie Johnson is in the garage. A good day, indeed.

Now, Gordon needs to have a good finish and get back (or at least closer) into the top 10........

[Redacted01]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Points are going to be all ****ed up now here since Johnson will be about dead last.

[Yrogergj24]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Good thing this is a Front Row Joe week

[OPDriver]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

The one time I pick Jimmie Johnson, he has to have a engine failure. My freakin luck!

[Yrogergj24]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Guess I'm getting second pick next week

[Redacted01]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Guess I'm getting second pick next week

Jr., Logano, and Shrub are going to have a pile up in the next 70 laps...

[Yrogergj24]

Re: OSFC- Pure Michigan 400

Nevermind, thought Dillon was still back in the 30's