How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

[GAMEC0CK2002]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

Throw theory and probability out the window. Unless he's already well off or is a 100% accurate psychic, he should have taken the deal. His greed got to him.

You simply don't risk 600K on a coin flip.

I highly doubt most people would have gone for it.

I do wonder if they pre-screen for contestants who are more likely to take a risk and be thus be more entertaining tv.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

It wasn't a coin flip though. He had a 67% chance of walking away with a million, 33% chance of walking away with $1.

[trobinson97]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

I would have taken the 600 grans without hesitation and gotten my *** out of there. He had that woman in his ear, that was problem number one, right DC?

[goh]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

How would switching increase the odds? Isn't it 50/50 either way? There's only 2 cases.

[Sandman42]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

How would switching increase the odds? Isn't it 50/50 either way? There's only 2 cases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

[ClarkKent]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

The video leaves a part out. The guy had 3 cases left, 1,000,000x2 and a $1. He says no deal to the 600K, then picks a million case. Banker offers him like 415K with just a million and the $1. He says no deal to that and then gets opens his case with the $1.

[Lintyfresh85]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

Whoever said they'd go for it is beyond stupid. And extremely greedy to the point that they deserve to only get one dollar.

I'd take the 600k every damn day of the week.

This guy was just being rebellion.

Period, point blank.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

I'd go for it because the only right answer is to play the odds. And the banker purposely offers a deal slightly below the real expected value because he knows what the expected odds are. I wouldn't be angry or disappointed if I followed the odds and got only a dollar. I would be angry or disappointed if I went against the odds and missed out on a million however. Whoever said that he CLEARLY should have kept the money is not evaluating the situation carefully enough. The only reason I'd take the money is if I were really pressed for cash financially and had to pay off loans or mortgages.

[SuperBowlNachos]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

It wasn't a coin flip though. He had a 67% chance of walking away with a million, 33% chance of walking away with $1.

He still has a chance to redeem him selfe

Those chances are BEFORE one of the million dollar cases is taken away. Whoever put that video up cut out the offer after he loses on of them. He if offered probably around 400k, I think someone said the exact offer higher up.

Then it's a 50/50 chance on whether or not he gets a $1milion or $1 dollar.

The cutting out of the last offer is messing up a lot of the thinking in this thread. He didn't go from 600k to 1 dollar. He went from 600k, the NEXT offer which was probably around 400k, then he gave up that deal and got a dollar.

He is not an idiot for declining the first offer, he is an idiot for taking a 50/50 chance on the million

[headrulz101]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

I'd go for it because the only right answer is to play the odds. And the banker purposely offers a deal slightly below the real expected value because he knows what the expected odds are. I wouldn't be angry or disappointed if I followed the odds and got only a dollar. I would be angry or disappointed if I went against the odds and missed out on a million however. Whoever said that he CLEARLY should have kept the money is not evaluating the situation carefully enough. The only reason I'd take the money is if I were really pressed for cash financially and had to pay off loans or mortgages.

Yeah you have a point with the odds and such, but c'mon man! What more is there to evaluate in the situation? You are being offered 603,000...you don't think of odds or probabilities and such..you take the money and run as fast as you can!

[goh]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Doesn't this part apply here:

"This difference can be demonstrated by contrasting the original problem with a variation that appeared in vos Savant's column in November 2006. In this version, Monty Hall forgets which door hides the car. He opens one of the doors at random and is relieved when a goat is revealed. Asked whether the contestant should switch, vos Savant correctly replied, "If the host is clueless, it makes no difference whether you stay or switch. If he knows, switch""

As it would be the clueless contestant opening the cases.

[SuperBowlNachos]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

I don't think it applys because unless legally the show is allowed to lie, they say that the $$$$ numbers are placed in the cases at random by a 3rd party company. So I wouldn't think the host or the banker would know.

[Cebby]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

Well, my response came from taking a statistical probability course in college. He did the right thing, most of the time he would've been making more by going on than stopping short and taking the 603,000. I don't know how his financial situation is and that would obviously factor into the decision. I don't know why you all are blindly calling him dumb, when he probably made the right choice, at least statistically.

In my game theory course knowledge, basically, unless he was indebted $1,000,000 to the mob and his utility for $1,000,000 was insanely higher than his utility for $6xx,000, he made the incorrect choice.

[SpacemanSpiff]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

In my game theory course knowledge, basically, unless he was indebted $1,000,000 to the mob and his utility for $1,000,000 was insanely higher than his utility for $6xx,000, he made the incorrect choice.

You have a point. I am considering that his utility curve for the possible values he could've gotten are on a linear curve, when in most real life situations, it's not. But even then, he could have a situation where he does not feel he benefits nearly as much from 6xx,000 as he would from 1,000,000 and vice versa. But I'm just saying, he did play the odds correctly in a vacuum.

[daflyboys]

Re: How to go from $603,000 to $1 in less than a minute

Wow....he didn't even do as well as these guys....

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ol2DedEhOGI&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ol2DedEhOGI&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>