OS stock investing thread

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  • Crimsontide27
    MVP
    • Jul 2004
    • 1505

    #76
    Re: OS stock investing thread

    Originally posted by ThrowBack
    georgiafan - Any idea why CCL is way up?
    I think there are multiple different reasons at play here. In no particular order...

    1) CCL was already down roughly 80% due to them having to shut down. Other than that, it had been trading in the $40-$50ish range for quite a while, dropped all the way down to $7 or $8. I managed to snag a bunch of $20 calls on the cheap for 21 Jan 15 when it was trading around $9.50

    2) Remdesivir drug has gotten good feedback, which could push the cruising time frame up. Gilead is the name of the company making it, so that might be one to watch as well.

    3) The easing up of Florida restrictions has started.

    4) The injection of a truck load of $$$ into the economy for the majority of the workforce, which tends to be the lessor compensated.

    5) Saudi injected billions into the company , as well as the Director just purchased millions in shares

    6) Most likely caused by a "short squeeze". 44% of all money transactions on CCL lately have been to the "short" side. As soon as all this positive news has come out, willing to bet a majority of people that took the short side of the trade are being forced out, as losses could be catastrophic to any trader if it continued to the upside, so they all needed to exit their positions.

    7) CCL coming out and stating that bookings for the '21 season have ramped up and has seen a great increase in demand.

    At the end of the day, The only reason quite a few companies are on the brink of collapse are 100% Corona driven, especially in the service, retail, and hospitality industries. Out standing opportunity to catch some of these companies down 80% and ride them back up.

    In CCL case, its much easier to double or triple your investment had you gotten in at $8. Is it likely to hit the $40s anytime soon. Highly probable that it will be awhile before that happens. But just going from $8-$16 was a much higher probability, than it going from $40 to $80.

    Comment

    • georgiafan
      Hall Of Fame
      • Jul 2002
      • 11053

      #77
      Re: OS stock investing thread

      Originally posted by ThrowBack
      georgiafan - Any idea why CCL is way up?
      If you want to look at it in generic big picture terms CCL at $10 range was just at its bottom. This is a company that's never lost $ so it was bound to go up as they aren't going out of business. From the $ side of things Its a few factors initially it was Saudi buying a bunch of shares as crimson mentioned. When they initially borrowed the billions of $ it was at a high interest rate. This week it came out that % was going to be lower then expected so that was huge.

      Carnival faced the prospect of paying an interest rate of over 15% on new debt before the Federal Reserve increased the size of its lending program.


      Like I've said before most of the bad news for CCL is out of the way as cruises are canceled till late June now. The CDC is still going to be a big problem so that's going effect when cruises start back up and the policies that go into effect. The canceling of additional dates hasn't effected the stocks for some reason. Your likely to see changes like not sailing 100% full to help with crowds. The company is spending 1 billion per month now as they still have to run the ships so even sailing at 35% full is better then nothing. The price of gas being cheap is another good thing.

      The bookings for 21 are up because its safer to just use the credits you got from your canceled cruise and lock that it. Even if you do that the large majority of people will go on a cruise late this year if its possible.

      If your looking at buying more then I would give it a few days. I expect things to go back down as it jumped up faster then it should have this week. I also agree and don't think your going to see the $40 range till all the virus stuff is in the clear. I would probably recommend doing day trading with the stocks if your into that kind of thing.
      Retro Redemption - Starting over with a oldschool PowerBone Offense

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      Comment

      • pietasterp
        All Star
        • Feb 2004
        • 6244

        #78
        Re: OS stock investing thread

        Originally posted by Crimsontide27
        2) Remdesivir drug has gotten good feedback, which could push the cruising time frame up. Gilead is the name of the company making it, so that might be one to watch as well.
        Just to comment on remdesivir, I think it's still a little unclear what the actual benefit of the drug is, and even if it does end up being approved, Gilead is unlikely to make much money from it. They are developing it primarily as a humanitarian effort (yes, drug companies do this stuff more than the media ever reports!) and it's a repurposed anti-viral from a prior effort, which is why it got into clinical trials so quickly.

        I think you still have to evaluate GILD based on the fundamentals and other pipeline, leaving remdesivir out of the equation. Of course, having said that, the stock has gone up double-digit percentages based on wildly inconsistent reporting on remdesivir trials, so what do I know? Being right and making money are 2 different things, as we all know.

        As the old saying goes, the market can stay irrational for longer than most people can stay solvent.

        Comment

        • pietasterp
          All Star
          • Feb 2004
          • 6244

          #79
          Re: OS stock investing thread

          And, to follow up on my last statement above, the FDA approves remdesivir in an emergency approval, and GILD stock goes down 5%. The data from the study the approval was based on is not exactly overwhelming, bit still...hard to understand the market reactions.

          Comment

          • DocHolliday
            Farewell and 'ado
            • Oct 2002
            • 4697

            #80
            OS stock investing thread

            Originally posted by pietasterp
            And, to follow up on my last statement above, the FDA approves remdesivir in an emergency approval, and GILD stock goes down 5%. The data from the study the approval was based on is not exactly overwhelming, bit still...hard to understand the market reactions.


            Gotta remember the market looks forward. This was already baked in to some degree.


            Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports
            Last edited by DocHolliday; 05-02-2020, 10:37 PM.
            GT: Event Horizon 0

            Comment

            • georgiafan
              Hall Of Fame
              • Jul 2002
              • 11053

              #81
              Re: OS stock investing thread

              Breaking within the last few minutes is CCL ships will return August 1st with limited capcity. This should help the stock price even if its just short term. I'll post a link with the full article

              (Update May 4, 2:58 p.m. ET) On Monday morning, Carnival Cruise Line issued a statement giving clarity as to which cruise ships will sail and when.
              Last edited by georgiafan; 05-04-2020, 12:24 PM.
              Retro Redemption - Starting over with a oldschool PowerBone Offense

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              Comment

              • SAJ323
                Rookie
                • Jan 2011
                • 58

                #82
                Re: OS stock investing thread

                Originally posted by georgiafan
                Breaking within the last few minutes is CCL ships will return August 1st with limited capcity. This should help the stock price even if its just short term. I'll post a link with the full article

                https://cruiseradio.net/carnival-cru...ited-capacity/
                Spoiler


                The Weekly chart is showing CCL is oversold, and if this weeks bar can stay over the 9 day SMA line, I think we will see a few weeks of run up.

                Comment

                • pietasterp
                  All Star
                  • Feb 2004
                  • 6244

                  #83
                  Re: OS stock investing thread

                  Originally posted by DocHolliday
                  Gotta remember the market looks forward. This was already baked in to some degree.
                  Operation Sports
                  Point well-taken (although not always true, market is as reactive as it is pro-active), but the question is, what assumptions were baked in? Approval leading to revenue? Approval leading to no additional revenue? Approval leading to loss? Non-approval?

                  Presumably all of the above, to some extent, which means....who knows what to make of the moves?

                  Comment

                  • georgiafan
                    Hall Of Fame
                    • Jul 2002
                    • 11053

                    #84
                    Re: OS stock investing thread

                    Originally posted by SAJ323
                    Spoiler


                    The Weekly chart is showing CCL is oversold, and if this weeks bar can stay over the 9 day SMA line, I think we will see a few weeks of run up.
                    I hope your right as I've loaded up since its dropped and own 1600 shares of CCL and 462 of RCL
                    Retro Redemption - Starting over with a oldschool PowerBone Offense

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                    • Crimsontide27
                      MVP
                      • Jul 2004
                      • 1505

                      #85
                      Re: OS stock investing thread

                      My options took a beating in CCL today. It was going just fine until NCHL released a statement saying that bankruptcy may be on the table for them.

                      Anytime I think all the relevant news about a stock has been released, something else always comes up. Doesnt matter what it is.

                      If these werent super long dated calls, I would have had a stop loss rolling.

                      Comment

                      • SAJ323
                        Rookie
                        • Jan 2011
                        • 58

                        #86
                        Re: OS stock investing thread

                        Originally posted by Crimsontide27
                        My options took a beating in CCL today. It was going just fine until NCHL released a statement saying that bankruptcy may be on the table for them.

                        Anytime I think all the relevant news about a stock has been released, something else always comes up. Doesnt matter what it is.

                        If these werent super long dated calls, I would have had a stop loss rolling.
                        Yea after Monday it took a beat down. The charts don't look good either now, but you never know what the stock market will do.

                        Comment

                        • DaImmaculateONe
                          MVP
                          • Oct 2007
                          • 3540

                          #87
                          Re: OS stock investing thread

                          CCCl rebounding could $20+ in the next few weeks
                          Last edited by DaImmaculateONe; 05-26-2020, 02:07 PM.
                          Kenny: Ok Vic, I'm ready for some girl on girl action.
                          Vic: No Kenny, that's girl versus girl.
                          Kenny: What's the difference?
                          Vic: Well, in one, one girl wins. In the other....
                          Kenny: Everyone wins?!?!

                          Captain Tenneal: Get it on!

                          Comment

                          • georgiafan
                            Hall Of Fame
                            • Jul 2002
                            • 11053

                            #88
                            Re: OS stock investing thread

                            Originally posted by DaImmaculateONe
                            CCCl rebounding could $20+ in the next few weeks
                            Yea its been a great month or so for cruise stocks so I'm glad I loaded up. As long as it just stays in the $20 range it should be smooth sailing for when ships start beginning to sail August 1st.
                            Retro Redemption - Starting over with a oldschool PowerBone Offense

                            My Youtube

                            Twitter

                            PS5 ID = BubbasCruise

                            Comment

                            • SuperBowlNachos
                              All Star
                              • Jul 2004
                              • 10218

                              #89
                              Re: OS stock investing thread

                              I'm almost back to where I was before the crash. I panic sold SHOP at $410......... Didn't want to get greedy because my average price was around $120.

                              I hit the jackpot though on Draftkings(DKNG). I've had it since it was DEAC before the merger. Trying not to get greedy, but at the same time it online betting is only going to get more and more popular.

                              Comment

                              • DaImmaculateONe
                                MVP
                                • Oct 2007
                                • 3540

                                #90
                                Re: OS stock investing thread

                                CCL over 20 Hertz coming back from being dead in buried filing for bankruptcy
                                Kenny: Ok Vic, I'm ready for some girl on girl action.
                                Vic: No Kenny, that's girl versus girl.
                                Kenny: What's the difference?
                                Vic: Well, in one, one girl wins. In the other....
                                Kenny: Everyone wins?!?!

                                Captain Tenneal: Get it on!

                                Comment

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