lifetime deal

[adriano]

The NFL underestimates what Video game football will be in 5 years. The games are becoming more and more realistic. I read a article saying in 5 years EA will pay the nfl whatever they want for the license, because they will own 5 years worth of material. Motion captures, player scans, and content. Basically the nfl just signed a lifetime deal. Which over time will lose them money.

[p_rushing]

Actually it is the other way, no one will offer the NFL any money because they don't have any material and can't put the game together quick enough to get it out. EA can simply lower the price greatly and the NFL will have to take it.

[spankdatazz22]

It's no doubt that it was a completely idiotic move by the NFL. And I hate EA for having the cowardice to propose such a deal in the first place. But I don't think the license will be worthless. I think one of the larger companies, like Microsoft or Sony, might Pony up the dough next time around. It's said that the networks lose money on the NFL deals, but it's a valuable tentpole for other programming. Fox wasn't considered a major network until after it got the NFL. Look at how people look at NBC since they lost it.

No, as gamers the only thing we're guaranteed in five years is that something even more shocking might happen that will set back videogame football even further than this deal did. Of course, during the next five years EA could get even more in bed with Sony and try to choke Microsoft out of the game. Maybe when we no longer have a Halo to play, people will "get it" and make their voices heard. Only problem is it'll be too late then.

[adriano]

Quote: Originally Posted by p_rushing

Actually it is the other way, no one will offer the NFL any money because they don't have any material and can't put the game together quick enough to get it out. EA can simply lower the price greatly and the NFL will have to take it.

maybe you mistook what i said.. .5 years is really a lifetime deal...the NFL set up its official license to be smaller in the years to come.. I Agree with you 100% ea will lower its price big time cause in 5 years , you will have to have all the material to keep it up to par with the new hardware.. like player likenesses and whatnot.. SO the NFL will need EA.. not the other way around..

[JRod]

This is all speculation...

If the NFL cares about what type of product is release than they might go with a lower price in 09. However this is a business and they could care less if Madden is realistic or not when the contract end. If Madden turns in another triple play and the NFL wan't another big deal, they might contract out to the big players in 09. Who knows who are going to be the shakers and the movers then. It could be the ESPN has gone under. Sony isn't the power like it is now. MS is stonger or weaker depending on what happens with the XBox 2. And another console could be on the horizon in 09. So by that time the landscape could be drastically different. Plus if the NFL wants to shop the deal around in 09. Don't think its going to be a month before the contract is up. It will be done with probably months to go before it expires. So let's just play out a scenario. EA sports doesn't get the contract and this time Microsoft buy up the deal. They put the ink on the paper in 10 months before the 09 season. Not enough to build a game right. Well business don't think days or months in advance, most think years in advance. So MS thinking they might bid and get the bid, then they'll work on a game well in advance. So if they get the contract they have a game ready. If not they just spent the money on an R and D project that went no where, not unusual in business. I'm sure Kellog, Coke, Nabisco spend huge sums a year on products the never get out of the labratory.

EA Sports DOES not have this for life. Its just like the FOX/NBC deal. Who would have thought NBC would not have football? Problem is, if Madden sucks for the next few years we are stuck with an officially licensed product. I suspect however that somewhere down the road we'll see a generic football title. You might even see a few generic football titles in 07, 08 or 09 just because companies what those development cycles to work on a game with the intention that they are going to bid on the deal and they don't want a first generation game. So they not only get a little bit of money back (people will still buy a generic title) but they get a few cycles of developement.

[NMSU]

Quote: Originally Posted by JRod

This is all speculation... If the NFL cares about what type of product is release than they might go with a lower price in 09. However this is a business and they could care less if Madden is realistic or not when the contract end. If Madden turns in another triple play and the NFL wan't another big deal, they might contract out to the big players in 09.

'11, you mean.

The first game under this agreement will be Madden '06. Then '07, '08, '09, and '10. The first game after the agreement ends will be '11.

Math is fundamental.

[Patman]

Quote: Originally Posted by JRod

This is all speculation... If the NFL cares about what type of product is release than they might go with a lower price in 09. However this is a business and they could care less if Madden is realistic or not when the contract end. If Madden turns in another triple play and the NFL wan't another big deal, they might contract out to the big players in 09. Who knows who are going to be the shakers and the movers then. It could be the ESPN has gone under. Sony isn't the power like it is now. MS is stonger or weaker depending on what happens with the XBox 2. And another console could be on the horizon in 09. So by that time the landscape could be drastically different. Plus if the NFL wants to shop the deal around in 09. Don't think its going to be a month before the contract is up. It will be done with probably months to go before it expires. So let's just play out a scenario. EA sports doesn't get the contract and this time Microsoft buy up the deal. They put the ink on the paper in 10 months before the 09 season. Not enough to build a game right. Well business don't think days or months in advance, most think years in advance. So MS thinking they might bid and get the bid, then they'll work on a game well in advance. So if they get the contract they have a game ready. If not they just spent the money on an R and D project that went no where, not unusual in business. I'm sure Kellog, Coke, Nabisco spend huge sums a year on products the never get out of the labratory. EA Sports DOES not have this for life. Its just like the FOX/NBC deal. Who would have thought NBC would not have football? Problem is, if Madden sucks for the next few years we are stuck with an officially licensed product. I suspect however that somewhere down the road we'll see a generic football title. You might even see a few generic football titles in 07, 08 or 09 just because companies what those development cycles to work on a game with the intention that they are going to bid on the deal and they don't want a first generation game. So they not only get a little bit of money back (people will still buy a generic title) but they get a few cycles of developement.

The problem with your idea is that it takes at least 2 years to build a game from the ground up (the last such game being NHL2K2 in my memory in the sim/sports genre) even sports games that are released yearly, so before a company starts they have to build a game from scratch, especially with the capabilities of a "next generation" console. All new routines, all new systems, not to mention a world of features to add that EA will make standard. Basically the difficulty to do the "industry" of NFL licensed football video game making just became that much harder, so you need at least 2 year ramp up time to get a game in place JUST TO MAKE A BID. No way would a company make and win a bid and sit on it for two years. MS just sold off its sports division so they'd have to start from scratch and if Sega/VC/ESPN/TakeTwo drop out of football then there will be no other game from which to even build in theory (not everything needs to be redone, simple things like schedules and wins-losses and tiebreakers of course typically remain static, but the entire game system from management standpoints and from real-time gamplay (in game) standpoints would have advanced that much further).

The barrier to entry is extremely high in 5 years time... the ONLY hope is if ESPN/VC manages to hold out and make insane sums of money because if EA had to bid against another company they can just write their own figure when they are now making 500 million in profit each year, and probably more (adjusted for inflation) in 5 years time.

[JRod]

Quote: Originally Posted by Patman

The problem with your idea is that it takes at least 2 years to build a game from the ground up (the last such game being NHL2K2 in my memory in the sim/sports genre) even sports games that are released yearly, so before a company starts they have to build a game from scratch, especially with the capabilities of a "next generation" console. All new routines, all new systems, not to mention a world of features to add that EA will make standard. Basically the difficulty to do the "industry" of NFL licensed football video game making just became that much harder, so you need at least 2 year ramp up time to get a game in place JUST TO MAKE A BID. No way would a company make and win a bid and sit on it for two years. MS just sold off its sports division so they'd have to start from scratch and if Sega/VC/ESPN/TakeTwo drop out of football then there will be no other game from which to even build in theory (not everything needs to be redone, simple things like schedules and wins-losses and tiebreakers of course typically remain static, but the entire game system from management standpoints and from real-time gamplay (in game) standpoints would have advanced that much further). The barrier to entry is extremely high in 5 years time... the ONLY hope is if ESPN/VC manages to hold out and make insane sums of money because if EA had to bid against another company they can just write their own figure when they are now making 500 million in profit each year, and probably more (adjusted for inflation) in 5 years time.

You're thinking like a gamer not a business...

My MS example was just that. If a business plans on bidding for that contract in '11. (I stand corrected), then a company will more than likley put money into reseach and developement. They will eat the costs if the contract doesn't pan out but they won't get the contract and then design a game. That's not how businesses work. If someone wants that contract bad enough they'll buy the contract and outbig EA. The NFL doens't entirely care about how good the game is they just want it functional. So another company, it would have to be a big company, could bid on it and even with a short development cycle. They would release a first generation game that might be poor for '11 standards but since its the only game on the shelves, people will buy it.