Coin Tosses

[threes_co]

Quote: Originally Posted by hampshire2012

Correct (not that I need to tell you that!) I was trying to make the point that a) 13 coin toss wins in a row is not actually as unlikely as it may seem, and that b) there absolutely no way that the coin toss logic is unfair.

I don't think it's the coin toss logic either, b/c all 13 of these games were online.

[JaymeeAwesome]

Every second and/or third guess you end up having the advantage due to pure mathematical odds. Like you have a 75% that your second guess will be opposite of the first. Which brings you back to 50% then if you get it right you get a 75% odds again but if you get it wrong you start off a new series with a 75% advantage. Sure luck comes into play every few but mostly you have an advantage. Specially if you have a huge sample to choose from because then you end up with trends. I love math I just have problems explaining things. So yes the flip of the coin is 50% but when you are given a choice you can use odds to your advantage...kinda like in Blackjack and the card counting system (which makes me some good money when i go to the casinos )

[football5680]

50/50 chance, you had just as good of a chance of losing that many times in a row.

[koberulz]

Quote: Originally Posted by jaymee13

Every second and/or third guess you end up having the advantage due to pure mathematical odds. Like you have a 75% that your second guess will be opposite of the first. Which brings you back to 50% then if you get it right you get a 75% odds again but if you get it wrong you start off a new series with a 75% advantage. Sure luck comes into play every few but mostly you have an advantage. Specially if you have a huge sample to choose from because then you end up with trends. I love math I just have problems explaining things. So yes the flip of the coin is 50% but when you are given a choice you can use odds to your advantage...kinda like in Blackjack and the card counting system (which makes me some good money when i go to the casinos )

You don't understand probability, do you?

[gbx34]

it seems heads more often then not

[jmurphy31]

It would be nice if the CPU mixed up their decision instead of always receiving.

[JaymeeAwesome]

Quote: Originally Posted by koberulz

You don't understand probability, do you?

I scored 780 in Math on my SATs. I know math, just never good explaining it. The probability of the coin landing heads or tails is 50/50 always but when someone is given a choice on what they think it will land on turns into statistics, you're giving a human element to probability in which the user can use past landings to predict future choices. Just because i can't explain it correctly doesn't mean i'm wrong.

[koberulz]

The previous result has zero effect on the probability of any given result occurring in the next coin toss. The odds are always 50/50. The odds of being correct are always 50/50. The coin isn't aware of what it did last time, thinking it does is wrong.