"Zone defence is broken" (Long (and actually thought through, I hope))

[eye_opener]

Quote: Originally Posted by hampshire2012

So are you saying Manning just woke up one Sunday and said, "you know what, I'm going to stare down my receivers for a couple of weeks, lets see how it goes. Oh crap, I guess I better go back to what I have always been successful with". There are lots of reasons why Manning had that horrible run of games, you can't just simplify it like that.

You are quite right. His offensive line was banged up. His receivers were banged up. He had little knowledge, comfort and understanding of their replacements' speed and agility, throwing off the timing in his mind, habit, and practice. He had no running game to speak of at the time. The defense was playing bend but don't break without a high turnover ratio. There are many reasons he had difficulties. But from the games I watched the mistakes PEYTON made to compound the troubles inherrent in the team were that he decided BEFORE the ball was ever snapped where he was going to go. He snapped the ball, stared down the pre-determined receiver (who was determined by diagnosing the defensive alignment pre-play) and the defenders watched his eyes, allowing them to get a jump on the pass. Once he got more comfortable with his teammates' replacements, once he settled down in the pocket, once he started going back through his progression, his play improved (and a reinvigorated run game didnt hurt either). He didn't wake up one day and decide to stare the receivers down. But he knew he had to put the team on his shoulders and that altered the way he played the game, for the worse. He knew blitz was coming (because the other team knew the colts weren't going to run the ball). He also knew a variety of exotic coverages would be employed. Having no way to take that pressure off of himself, he tried to do more than QBs are intended to do (namely determine the play before he saw it). And all things considered, he did a much better job while making that mistake than any quarterback I've seen since Joe Montana played for the chiefs.

[sparkdawg777]

I see what you're saying about Manning, but the reason he threw the picks was not just because he stared down the WR (although that made it a bit easier for the DB/LB) the main reason is he made the wrong read. No one can understand what is going on in his head, he has a great skill at reading defenses and understanding the game. The reason he made the decision to throw quick is probably from watching film all week and past experiences with the team he thought he knew what they were doing and just was wrong. However there are many times when he would throw quick and pick up a good 5-10 yards because of recognizing the defense pre-snap. Many elite QBs are able to do this week in and week out. Ex: watch Brady this weekend he does the same thing. They understand the game in their own way.

[sportyguyfl31]

Quote: Originally Posted by sparkdawg777

I see what you're saying about Manning, but the reason he threw the picks was not just because he stared down the WR (although that made it a bit easier for the DB/LB) the main reason is he made the wrong read. No one can understand what is going on in his head, he has a great skill at reading defenses and understanding the game. The reason he made the decision to throw quick is probably from watching film all week and past experiences with the team he thought he knew what they were doing and just was wrong. However there are many times when he would throw quick and pick up a good 5-10 yards because of recognizing the defense pre-snap. Many elite QBs are able to do this week in and week out. Ex: watch Brady this weekend he does the same thing. They understand the game in their own way.

That's another thing about this game.

Many times, when a QB thows a pick, its because either he, the receiver, or both, got fooled. The QB reads what he thinks is a 2 high safety look, only to realize when he throws over the middle, that it was really cover 3 with a robber bailing out to cut off a slant.

The zones are waaaaaaaaaaaay too vanilla, and we have no tools to shell our looks pre snap, other then "show-blitz"

The defensive plays have been more or less untouched for 15 years.

[sparkdawg777]

Yeh I agree, there definately should be more options for disguising defenses. There should be a way to do so when choosing plays, maybe pick two kind of like if you were playing against a friend and the 1st or 2nd you select is the disguise and the other is the actual play? That should work pretty easily.

[eye_opener]

Quote: Originally Posted by sparkdawg777

I see what you're saying about Manning, but the reason he threw the picks was not just because he stared down the WR (although that made it a bit easier for the DB/LB) the main reason is he made the wrong read. No one can understand what is going on in his head, he has a great skill at reading defenses and understanding the game. The reason he made the decision to throw quick is probably from watching film all week and past experiences with the team he thought he knew what they were doing and just was wrong. However there are many times when he would throw quick and pick up a good 5-10 yards because of recognizing the defense pre-snap. Many elite QBs are able to do this week in and week out. Ex: watch Brady this weekend he does the same thing. They understand the game in their own way.

I watched the Dallas V Colts game. The pick by alan ball. Notice peyton is looking for wayne the whole time. The second he snaps his head back from the play fake it is wayne or bust. He keeps looking at wayne while he shuffles. He gives no attempt at disguising his pre-snap decision. Check it out: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201012...000d5d81ca7e03

Orlando Scandrick, the second pick of the night, was the same things. You don't get to see the play from the snap in the highlight, but I watched the game. He snapped the ball and was looking that direction from the start. Even in this replay you can tell Manning was eye-balling his target most of the play.

The FIRST pick by sean lee is the same thing. Peyton snaps the ball, and stares his target down. He adds a little pump fake to try and throw off the defender, but the whole time from snap to pick he is looking one direction. Lee is playing QB SPY. Peyton sees this and tried to fool him by pump faking, but a much more effective strategy against the spy is LOOKING OFF THE DEFENDER.

The final pick, and 2nd for sean lee, of the game is another example. Watch peyton. Snap, head turns to stare down Tamme. The defender may have been playing a zone in the area, but you see he had to make a spectacular leap . Maybe something can be said for peyton putting the ball in the right spot (to need that timed leap to break up the play), but would the DB, Mike Jenkins who is a decent pass defender but by no means prolific, would not have been so quick to short cut the play if peyton hadn't been staring tamme down the whole play. Notice while peyton is staring tamme down jenkins is staring peyton down.

Now notice, the next week, against the patriots. The first pick by meriweather may have been a misread (more likely miscommunication between tamme and peyton) but peyton still looked at his other targets so the D didn't know where he was going with the ball. Also the McCourty play was a product of miscommunication but notice peyton still stared the receiver down (although this was a broken play and not subject to the same reasons as the dallas pick results). http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201011...ecap#tab:watch

Colts vs Bolts is a tale of two peyton's. In 2 of the picks it is clearly a misread, miscommunication or receiver mis-play. However in the last pick, and to a degree the second pick (which I know was tipped while in the throwing motion by the edge rusher), peyton's eyes never left the pre-designated receiver. The last pick was an over thrown ball, but the DB quite likely was able to stay in such good stride with the Receiver because peyton's eyes and body position had determined the play from the snap. The blitzer tipped pass was less peyton's fault and he may have been able to make the throw otherwise, but the LB playing the zone knew where peyton was going because he was watching peyton stare down his receiver. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201011...ost-playbyplay

Notice most of these were not "quickly thrown balls" picked by "Johnny On The Spot" DBs. Peyton was in the pocket for 3 > + seconds. The second a defender gets his head turned around and see peyton staring at the receiver or if the defender is playing a zone and is watching peyton as much as the receiver if not more he knows he's in the perfect spot and has a clear idea of peyton's intentions. It's more a matter of finishing what peyton's telling them than anything else. There are many other passes that weren't picked off that were deflected or thrown away because peyton STARED DOWN THE RECEIVER. Pundits only tell you what they think the public can understand. Analyze the games yourself. You'll see peyton making this mistake through that 4 game stretch time and time again.