The Effect of a Looming Competitor On Madden 12 and Beyond

[bucky60]

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

EA is a video game company, not a football video game company. If they only made football games you'd have a point, but they make a lot of other games also.

Sorry, but I do have a point. Madden is one of EA's biggest Sellers, after FIFA. EA loses a lot of money if they can't sell Madden. EA Needs that NFL License more than the NFL needs EA.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

There's no way EA will pay what they're paying now, or anything close to it, if the deal isn't an exclusive one. That's why the deal is so expensive in the first place: EA is the only publisher who has it.

You're contradicting yourself. You say EA won't pay for an Exclusive License, then you say they won't pay what they are paying now unless it is Exclusive. I guess I agree with the latter. Yeah, they won't way what they are paying unless it's Exclusive. Not sure how that advances your argument. Sounds like you are making my argument for me. EA may not have a choice on whether the License is Exclusive or not. The NFL has the upper hand. It has something EA needs in order for EA to sell Madden (an NFL License). If the NFL determines it can make more from an Exclusive License, that's what EA will have to deal with.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

As I said before, EA makes other games. If I'm not mistaken, doesn't FIFA sell more than Madden.

Madden still makes to much for them to drop it. EA can't afford to do that. Not sure what FIFA has to do with the NFL License.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

Madden is the title that put them on the map, but FIFA seems to be more popular world wide than Madden.

So you are saying that EA would be perfectly content to only make money off of FIFA and drop all other games? Still not sure where you are going with this. EA needs an NFL License to sell Madden, and Madden sells big time for them. I believe it's second to FIFA. You seem to think EA only cares about how FIFA sells. WOW.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

EA wants to make money off of the NFL, and the NFL allows them to do that for a fee. The NFL would be doing itself a disservice buy trying to bully EA into an exclusive license because they'd be making it difficult for EA to make a profit; if NFL does that, they decrease the value of their own brand.

Madden sales have NOT dropped nearly enough for this to happen. Madden is still making a big profit and it NEEDS the NFL License in order to do that. Madden sales would have to drop a GREAT DEAL MORE in order for EA to not be able to afford the Exclusive License. You are GREATLY exaggerating the drop in Madden Sales. EA can still afford it. Madden still makes a profit (Something it would not do w/o an NFL License). EA needs the NFL License more than the NFL needs EA.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

No else is making a NFL game right now, and there's also no one else competing for the license, so EA has all the leverage when negotiating the price of the license.

The NFL has the leverage. There is no competition BECAUSE of the Exclusive license. There may be some negotiating, but EA NEEDS that NFL License (whether it is Exclusive or not) in order to sell Madden. Madden doesn't sell w/o it. If the NFL ONLY offers an exclusive license, EA may have NO CHOICE. EA really doesn't have much leverage in whether the license is exclusive or not. Not sure why you say they do.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlackJackRabbit

The NFL isn't going to say "fine, then there will be no more NFL football video games" because then the NFL isn't making any money. Where's the sense in that ?

The NFL can live w/o Madden. They will find another developer if they have to. It may take two(ish) years, but they will find one. I don't think it's likely they go this route because EA needs that NFL license for Madden to exist, and the NFL knows this. The NFL knows they can make the License Exclusive.

Not sure where you are getting that an Exclusive License is not possible.

So, so far, you have EA only caring about the sales of FIFA and the NFL folding if Madden gets shelved.

I think it's FAR more likely that the NFL knows EA needs an NFL License for Madden to exist, the NFL wants to deal with exclusivity, and the NFL will find out how much EA is willing to pay for it. The deal is made. (As I Flip the Video Football Gaming Gods off for letting it happen).

[bkrich83]

Unfortuntately I don't see this changing any time in the near future.

The NFL loves to dole out exclusive licensing deals to maximize the value of their IP's and any notion that EA has seen the light and is willing to give it up, imo, is nothing more than wishful thinking.

The second issue, is, even if the exclusive deal goes the way of the dodo, there's no one in position currently, to get a game to market any time in the near future. So you're probably looking at a short dev cycle release, and then a full release the 2nd year. That is if any other dev is willing to start from scratch and sink a bunch of capital in to a game to compete with EA. 2k are the only ones I could see doing that, and I don't think they are in any position to do so.

[bucky60]

Quote: Originally Posted by bkrich83

The second issue, is, even if the exclusive deal goes the way of the dodo, there's no one in position currently, to get a game to market any time in the near future. So you're probably looking at a short dev cycle release, and then a full release the 2nd year. That is if any other dev is willing to start from scratch and sink a bunch of capital in to a game to compete with EA. 2k are the only ones I could see doing that, and I don't think they are in any position to do so.

I think 2k could get something somewhat competitive in two years. I don't think they would have thrown everything away from there last Football game, and from what I've heard it was pretty good. It didn't gave current NFL players (only had retired players), but I heard it was pretty good.

[bkrich83]

Quote: Originally Posted by bucky60

I think 2k could get something somewhat competitive in two years. I don't think they would have thrown everything away from there last Football game, and from what I've heard it was pretty good. It didn't gave current NFL players (only had retired players), but I heard it was pretty good.

It was pretty good on the field, but it was bareboned off the field. I know a lot of those guys over there. My question is, who's going to develop it, and who's going to pay for it? A lot of the team is either gone from the company or working on the NBA series. Is 2k financially in a position to start from scratch and take on EA. Can they afford to sink a ton of money in to the project knowing that they may not see good results financially for 3 or 4 years?

As great as the 2k series was (my all time favorite football series) they didn't even get close to EA from a sales perspective until they had like 4 releases out and they dropped the price to 20 dollars. Even then, the PS2 version of Madden outsold all versions of 2k5 combined. (2k5 was either even or outsold Madden on the Xbox. ) Now they would have to climb that hill all over again.. Is that something their management is willing to do or capable of doing? I'd like to say yes, but I am not totally sure that's realistic.

[bkrich83]

Quote: Originally Posted by bucky60

I think 2k could get something somewhat competitive in two years. I don't think they would have thrown everything away from there last Football game, and from what I've heard it was pretty good. It didn't gave current NFL players (only had retired players), but I heard it was pretty good.

Speaking of APF2k8, just to put what you said in perspective about it's quality, on the field, and I am talking strictly the football game play portion of it, for my money it was simply the finest football game ever made. Bar none.

[bucky60]

Quote: Originally Posted by bkrich83

It was pretty good on the field, but it was bareboned off the field. I know a lot of those guys over there. My question is, who's going to develop it, and who's going to pay for it? A lot of the team is either gone from the company or working on the NBA series. Is 2k financially in a position to start from scratch and take on EA. Can they afford to sink a ton of money in to the project knowing that they may not see good results financially for 3 or 4 years? As great as the 2k series was (my all time favorite football series) they didn't even get close to EA from a sales perspective until they had like 4 releases out and they dropped the price to 20 dollars. Even then, the PS2 version of Madden outsold all versions of 2k5 combined. (2k5 was either even or outsold Madden on the Xbox. ) Now they would have to climb that hill all over again.. Is that something their management is willing to do or capable of doing? I'd like to say yes, but I am not totally sure that's realistic.

They would be starting off with a fairly good reputation, only enhanced by how great NBA2K is. I think they start off with a head start that they didn't have the first time around. Only they know whether they think it would be worth it or not.

[bucky60]

Quote: Originally Posted by bkrich83

Speaking of APF2k8, just to put what you said in perspective about it's quality, on the field, and I am talking strictly the football game play portion of it, for my money it was simply the finest football game ever made. Bar none.

That's what I've heard. They must still have the code to the franchise portion of 2k05. One would think they would have a head start.

[bkrich83]

Quote: Originally Posted by bucky60

That's what I've heard. They must still have the code to the franchise portion of 2k05. One would think they would have a head start.

I don't think it's that simple to simply port that code. Not to mention franchise mode in 2k5 was, to the dev's admission to me a disaster.

I hated Madden, but I used to play single seasons in 2k5, and use Madden as a franchise mode simulator, because it was so bad. If Madden is truly heading the NFL Head Coach from a franchise perspective that would be a long road to climb.

If I could get NFL Head Coach Franchise Mode, with APF/NFL2k on the field, I would never leave my house.