And even that 2007 data mentioned that if your team plays good defense, you're hurting yourself.
That said, I'd like to know how that sim was run. It seems strange to say that, unless your defense is really good, giving a team 35 yds to a TD and 75 yds to a TD is basically the same thing.
If that was the case, why are there differing #'s of points allowed? Everyone would give up a TD every time because, regardless of how many yds a team has to go, they will give up a TD because field position is meaningless. There would only be the good defenses that could stop that consistently and everyone else who can't. Obviously, there's more factors at work in the real game. Turnover generation, match up between offense/defense, home/road, weather vs dome, variation in player performance, etc.
Heck, look at the Chiefs tonight. There were times they couldn't even get 10 yards in 3 plays. Giving them the ball at your 30 is still giving them a chance at 3 points. Giving it to them on their own 30 changes everything.
Would the Chiefs never punting actually do any better? Is there any real difference between 2-7 and 1-8? Is there any real difference between 12-4 and 13-3? Either way, you're in the playoffs.
Seems like this would only apply to the marginal teams where one win might actually mean 6th seed/winning crap division or sitting home. But they might also be the teams that it sucks the most with, even the data noted how volatile it was in the sims. So I question the actual usefulness of this if the teams it matters most for are that inconsistent with it, especially as some sort of absolute rule.
It also ignores things like where it mentioned that the Giants knew what the Falcons would try, ignored all the smoke and mirrors, and shut it down. Sims can't account for scouting data and such.
And in Madden? I'd have to see that Madden players, assuming equal skill at the game (regardless of team) would play out to those kinds of percentages. Not to mention that FGs in Madden tend to be almost automatic, even from 50+, whereas in the NFL, it's (usually) much more iffy.