Wide Receiver salary question

[macbranson]

I have to re-sign my WR Miles Ali this season. He's 25 years old and averaging about 75 receptions per season, 1200 receiving yards and 13 TDs per season over the last three seasons and is on pace to do so again this season. He only wants $29 million for 5 years. But I'm thinking he's at a prime age, he's huge (6'5", 236 lbs), he's a great red zone threat and his production is very good. I like paying players what they deserve and not what they ask for as it makes the game more challenging because I'm forced to manage the cap better. I think he deserves a lot more than what he's asking. What's a realistic number that he should be getting paid?

[Robrain]

http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/...ver/limit-500/

http://www.spotrac.com/rankings/nfl/...ver/limit-500/

Guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant are all probably looking at north of $10 million per season on average for their next big contract. Calvin Johnson currently leads the pack with $16.2 million per season average, and Larry Fitzgerald is close behind with $16.1 million per season. TE Jimmy Graham just inked a deal that netted him roughly $10 million per season (4-years / $40 million).

$20 million guaranteed should be the bare minimum as far as the guaranteed portion of Miles Ali's contract.

My past two CFMs have used realistic salaries for signing players for my own team. It makes it so you can't easily do what the Falcons just did in my current franchise: franchise-tagged Julio Jones (1-year / $12.5 million), then immediately signed free agents Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas to long term contracts the same offseason. They gave Dez a 6-year / $72.7 million deal, thats like a $12.1 million average, which I think is fair (I didn't bid on him). However, they signed Demaryius to a ridiculously cheap 5-year / $33.8 million deal. That's an average of just $6.76 million per season for a 27-year old 90+ OVR #1 WR. That's absurdly low.

If I'm in a cap crunch and need to resign a key player, I'm okay with flipping the guaranteed money in exchange for the lower overall cap number. For example, if I think a certain FS is worth being paid 10th overall at his position, but I can't afford that in cap space, I'll offer him a contract equal to the 15th overall at his position, but include 5th overall guaranteed money in it. So while I save on cap space, more of the contract is guaranteed.

Same with high OVR situational players. If they aren't going to be a true featured starter for me, but will fill a very important role on my team, I'm okay with paying them less salary but a lot more guaranteed money, basically the guaranteed money reflects their worth to my team.

[macbranson]

So, I was trying to compare Ali's stats to a real NFL player and Eric Decker is pretty similar in terms of production, age and even physical attributes. Decker got $36 million for 5 years to go to the Jets. Since I want to re-sign Ali to his team, I'm not going to overpay like other teams do because they're trying to outbid each other for a player. I'm thinking $30 million for 5 years sounds pretty in line with what he would get in real life, so I'll probably just do that and hope he accepts it.

[Robrain]

I think you're incorrectly evaluating receiver talent if you think paying him BELOW what Eric Decker got from the Jets would be a realistic scenario...

The Jets overpaid for Decker because they are desperate for any kind of receiver talent (see: Santonio Holmes). They also overpaid for Decker because he put up those stats with Peyton Manning, one of the greatest QBs of all time, at the helm of that offense. Geno Smith is not Peyton Manning. Not to mention, Decker never operated as a #1 receiver at any time while playing with Peyton Manning. Demaryius Thomas filled that role, and let's not forget about Wes Welker and Julius Thomas helping Decker see tons of single coverage.

Not to mention, you don't seem to realize how rare talented, monolithic (6'5") receivers are in the NFL. Decker is 6'3", not 6'5". That is a SIGNIFICANT difference in height. Why? If a corner is 5-10"-6'0", that means Decker has a 3-5 inch height advantage. Miles Ali at 6'5" would have a 5-7 inch height advantage. Every. Time.

There are only a handful of talented 6'5" veteran WRs. Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson sit atop that short list.

Since Miles Ali only has 85 SPD at 6'5", he's much more closely compared to Vincent Jackson. Ali compensates for the 85 SPD with 94 ACC (at 6'5", that's RARE), and a JMP stat suitable for an Elite WR: 93.

Vincent Jackson's contract history requires a little extra explanation. He was drafted in the 2nd Round and signed a 4-year rookie contract. After those 4 years were up, he became a Restricted Free Agent. The old CBA at the time had an uppermost tender level that the new CBA abolished. The old CBA's highest tier tender was a 1st+3rd Round pick as compensation. The new (current) CBA's highest tier is now just a 1st. So, when VJax became a Restricted Free Agent after his rookie contract expired, he got slapped with the highest tier tender of the old CBA, at $3.268 million. He balked at that treatment and staged a holdout in 2010 that lasted the majority of the season. He signed the tender one day earlier than necessary simply to acrue the extra year of seasons played for his NFL career. That should have allowed him to hit unrestricted free agency in 2011. However, during that offseason, the new CBA was put together, and an unfortunate side effect of that was that certain players like VJax managed to get stuck as a restricted free agent for an extra year. VJax was franchise tagged just before the NFL Lockout for the 2011 season, which paid him $11.4 million that year. When he finally reached free agency in 2012, he turned the Chargers down when they finally offered him a long-term deal in the neighborhood of $10-11 million per season. He signed with the Bucs on a 5-year deal for $55,555,555.55.

That should illustrate how rare talented 6'5" receivers are in the NFL, and what lengths teams will go to in order to maintain control of them. For two years the Chargers wouldn't let him out of their clutches, even though he was clearly discontent with the whole situation, to the point of holding out for almost an entire season. They would have franchise tagged him again in 2012 if the CBA hadn't stipulated that if a player is franchise tagged twice, his salary for that second time being tagged is a 44% raise from the previous year. It would have cost the Chargers around $16 million to franchise tag him for a 2nd time.

http://www.nfl.com/player/vincentjac...506400/profile

And all those contract issues centered on a receiver who had achieved just two 1,000+ yard seasons in his career. His season best at the time was 1,167 receiving yards. He also had NEVER reached double-digit touchdowns in his career in a single season. A guy like Miles Ali, in your example, having nailed the 1,200 mark 3-4 times, plus 13 TDs per season would have teams fighting over him tooth and nail. To be honest, the WR franchise tag should pretty much be your starting point of his average annual salary: in the neighborhood of $12-12.5 million per season, realistically.

Also, when we're classifying receivers based on body-type, weight is almost as important a factor as height. Larger receivers (weight) are harder to bring down and tend to be able to absorb greater hits, making them more valuable when making contested catches in traffic (over the middle), or jump balls. Eric Decker is not only just 6'3", but he's just 218 lbs. Vincent Jackson is 6'5" / 230+ lbs. It's a rare body type for Elite receivers.

Decker is more comparable to 6'3" / 217 lbs Jordy Nelson.

After having played fantasy football extremely in-depth for the last 5 years, I'm very familiar with player contracts and height/weight statistics.

[seboyandong]

They would have franchise tagged him again in 2012 if the CBA hadn't stipulated that if a player is franchise tagged twice

[Robrain]

To make it easier to understand, just take a look at the numbers that got Larry Fitzgerald paid:

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzg...506106/profile

[macbranson]

I guess this is why I made this post. I'm kind of debating whether or not I should be considering him as an elite receiver. Like I said, he's averaging around 75 receptions a season which isn't really elite status, in my opinion. He had 80+ receptions one season, 60+ the next season, 70+ his third season and he's looking like he's gonna be around 70 this season, so on average, he makes about 75 receptions. That, in my opinion is good, not great. His yardage is pretty good, averaging around 1200 per season. His touchdowns are what really sets him apart, averaging over 10 per season. But, similar to Eric Decker, he's on a team where the QB is having MVP performances every season. One season, my QB Cam Newton, had three receivers with 1000+ yards and the next season there were four. Miles Ali isn't even my #1 receiver. Kenny Britt is rated like one point higher overall, so I have him as my #1. Britt is averaging about the exact same numbers as Ali per season with a few less TDs, meaning Ali isn't the only guy on my team putting up good numbers. Given Ali's physical stature, but factoring what he lacks in physical attributes (not fast and drops a lot of passes), I hesitant to pay him as an elite receiver. Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson are so far beyond Ali in terms of talent and production, I wouldn't even consider paying him in that pay range. Maybe someone like Marques Colston would be better to compare him to. He has a $40 million contract with $19 million in bonus money. I'm thinking maybe this is more in line with what I should be paying Ali.