Minor league prospects

[webbjay82]

If you have a decently rated rookie prospect in the minors, is there an advantage to letting him stay in the minors for a while? How long should you leave him there before considering to move him up?

[Mackrel829]

Others will be able to provide far more detail, but I'll answer with what I know.

Play time makes a big difference to progression, so it's only worth calling up a player if they're going to play significant time for you. If they're starting in the minors, but would be on the bench in the majors, leave them in the minors because they'll develop more.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the higher the level of competition, the more your prospect will progress. So a prospect will develop quicker playing AAA than A, but they'll progress even faster playing MLB than AAA. So if your prospect is going to start for you, it's best to call them up and get them time in the majors.

In short, leave prospects in the minors until they're good enough to start for you and make a contribution. Calling them up but not giving them play time will harm their development.

[tabarnes19_SDS]

Progression is tied to a few factors.
1. Potential
2. Years to peak
3. Small amount of performance

Also in there is some randomness. When I used to run thousands if sims what I saw that was 6 years was the curve for progression. Even prospects that started at an older age would see their peak 6 years later. An example would be a 25 year old would peak at 31.

Potential also affects the amount of improvement year to year. A potential players obviously see a larger increase that a c potential player year over year. Basically the potential is the "goal" of where the overall should be. You can test this by raising a older players potential and sim and you will see progression toward that. If you lower it, more often than not, there would be regression towards the potential.

Where leaving a player down or bringing them up can affect development is the performance piece. If they put up good numbers over an extended time it reflects on their ratings and can cause the potential to be adjusted.

There is some small randomness built in, but for the most part keeping a player down or bringing them up does not fundamentally change the progression substantially. I still am advocating for potential to be hidden and a scouting system helps determine the curve "seen" by the end user to make determination of the quality of a player.

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[Caulfield]

Quote: Originally Posted by webbjay82

How long should you leave him there before considering to move him up?

for position players, if it's a catching prospect and he has at least the second highest Overall of catchers in my whole organisation, then he gets the call. for infielders, he'd need to be in the top 6 infielders Overall in my organisation and in the top 5 Overall of outfielders for outfielders. starting pitchers he'd need be in the top 6 Overall of starting pitchers and in the top 6 of relievers Overall for relievers. unfortunately sometimes that means risking letting go and losing whomever the prospect replaces if a vet is out of options. oh well, all is fair in love, war and baseball

[garry1221]

Quote: Originally Posted by webbjay82

If you have a decently rated rookie prospect in the minors, is there an advantage to letting him stay in the minors for a while? How long should you leave him there before considering to move him up?

I typically advocate leaving kids down for at least 1 year. If a kid is tearing it up, let him keep progressing against lesser players. It is possible for potential to go down if he stays in the minors too long, or he's no longer challenged there, so it can be a balancing act. Caulfield's reccommendations pretty much echo my views.

Potential grades can also play a role for me. If a decent OVR C potential is tearing it up while someone is struggling, i might bring him up just to see what might happen.