National ranking - do I have a shot?

[dalecooper]

OK, quick background: I have a TeamBuilder team that was top ten in its first two seasons. In my third year I managed to go undefeated, including thrashing Bama in the last game of the season; that elevated me to #1 and I went on to win the national title.

Fourth year begins. I give myself an A-strength schedule and start out ranked #1. I proceed to go undefeated again through 11 games. I beat a few ranked teams including Florida, though unfortunately most of my Big 12 opponents aren't that great. But at 11-0 I am now ranked third, behind undefeated Alabama and Oregon. I have one game left. The opponent is not quality - they aren't ranked and their record is like 4-6, I think.

Questions:

1. Is it going to be possible to get into the title game, short of a miracle defeat for one of the top two? I haven't looked at their schedule yet to see who they have left. One of them has only played ten games so far.

2. I've been making an effort to demolish the last couple teams I played and it did actually help - I rose from fifth to third even though neither of the opponents were ranked. Do I have a prayer if I beat this last team 80-3 or something?

3. Is it realistic for the polls to give the defending national champs this little respect? I had a good schedule (to start with, at least) and I stomped on everybody, excluding one weird game I had to squeak out over a mediocre opponent. I feel like I should get an auto-bid back to the national championship as long as I go undefeated and don't play a bunch of cupcakes. Yet at one point I was 9-0 and ranked fifth.

4. Finally, pardon my ignorance, but does conference championship round have any impact on ranking, or is it set in stone before then? I know you don't get the bowl bid until after the conference round, but that doesn't mean my performance in that game will mean anything. I'd prefer it if I did - I'd get one more crack at a quality opponent.

[dalecooper]

Anybody? I've got a couple days until I can get back to my dynasty, I want to know when the time comes what I could or should do to get to the title game.

[QuinnMahoney]

Sounds like Alabama would have to lose the SEC title game. You usually don't jump a team without beating a top 10 opponent. Good luck though.

[Rebel10]

You do have a chance, even if the other two teams aren't playing. Also, take note that the 2 #1 teams might have conference championship games. They could lose either of those games and propel you into it. If they win those games, however, then they probably deserve to have the #1 and #2 spots if they're against good teams. Conference championship does impact rankings and it's always tough for a good team in a strong conference late in the season... Sometimes you see a #1 vs. #5 matchup in the SEC or comparable conference.

In my 2nd season I went undefeated on a VERY easy schedule but leap-frogged a team late in the season to land at #2... I don't think that I deserved it at all and I beat a crap team. It was totally BS for the other team, but I took it. I ended up getting squashed by Alabama in the title game, so I got what I deserved.

You always have a chance to make it in and I've seen a lot of surprises in the game.

As for the game giving you precedence, yes and no. If you've got a bad overall team, but you yourself are performing well (over achieving) with them, then they won't give you much extra in the polls.

[dalecooper]

Thanks guys.

Quote:

As for the game giving you precedence, yes and no. If you've got a bad overall team, but you yourself are performing well (over achieving) with them, then they won't give you much extra in the polls.

My team's actually very solid - not Bama-level but A offense and B+ defense, so a very credible title contender. I've recruited well and I had a couple star freshmen who have developed into monsters as seniors.

Glad to hear the conference games play into it. I'll just do my best to blow my Big 12 opponent off the field, and hope for the best with the SEC results.

In a way I kind of did this to myself. I could have scheduled a game vs. Alabama but didn't. In year 2 I played them in the Fiesta Bowl and lost in OT; in year 3 I scheduled the last game of the season against them and beat them bad enough to propel myself to #1, but them down to #6. I didn't schedule them this year because I was hoping we'd both reach the title game undefeated for the rubber match, but that isn't going to work out if I can't leapfrog Oregon. Who invited them into my blood feud?

[dalecooper]

Update:

Oregon and Alabama each won out to go 12-0 (Bama is in the conf. championship but hasn't played it yet). I won my game by a 31 point margin but I'm still #3. The Big 12 championship will be against the #17 team, so maybe I have one last shot to move up..? Or Bama could lose to Florida, but that doesn't seem too likely when you compare their unit ratings. I'd rather jump Oregon than them anyway.

When I started looking into things deeper though, it turns out EA captured the BCS with stunning realism: I am TOTALLY getting screwed. I played four nationally ranked teams this year; Oregon (ranked #2) only played two. I beat every single ranked team I played by at least 20, and the top ten-ranked Huskers I beat 48-10. Oregon had one 20 point win and one squeaker. Other than the ranked games, their schedule looks comparable to mine (one cupcake, a few bad teams, a lot of mediocre ones) and my average margin of victory was higher. No way these guys should be ranked ahead of me, especially when I'm the defending national champs! (Whine grouse complain.)

[bmxdmx]

Quote: Originally Posted by dalecooper

Update: Oregon and Alabama each won out to go 12-0 (Bama is in the conf. championship but hasn't played it yet). I won my game by a 31 point margin but I'm still #3. The Big 12 championship will be against the #17 team, so maybe I have one last shot to move up..? Or Bama could lose to Florida, but that doesn't seem too likely when you compare their unit ratings. I'd rather jump Oregon than them anyway. When I started looking into things deeper though, it turns out EA captured the BCS with stunning realism: I am TOTALLY getting screwed. I played four nationally ranked teams this year; Oregon (ranked #2) only played two. I beat every single ranked team I played by at least 20, and the top ten-ranked Huskers I beat 48-10. Oregon had one 20 point win and one squeaker. Other than the ranked games, their schedule looks comparable to mine (one cupcake, a few bad teams, a lot of mediocre ones) and my average margin of victory was higher. No way these guys should be ranked ahead of me, especially when I'm the defending national champs! (Whine grouse complain.)

Sounds like you got Screwed. Must be the Alabama Mystiques and the mystique of beating USC. Man that sucks. Hope Alabama Loses or you're toast.