Scouting Draft Confusion

[Sajiky]

At the start of the year the projected number one prospect on the board was a QB. I scouted him in the first week and he was A Throw Power, B Throw Acc Short, and B- Throw Acc Deep (the skill grades aren't really part of the confusion, just included for completeness).

So when I scouted him in week one my scouts grade on him was an early first round prospect, fine that makes sense. But now in week 16 I looked at him and his card says that my scouts have him rated at a mid 2nd round talent BUT, he is still listed as the number one overall prospect on the board. I could understand maybe his play dropping him in evaluation, but that would only make sense if he dropped on the board at least some.

Other things that don't make sense to me are other players I have scouted, where one player's top 3 skills are way higher, his combine are higher, but he is listed much lower then those who have both lower skills and combine. I know scouting is not an exact science, but that is just illogical, if all the information available to you says one guy looks better to you then he should look better.

TO BE CLEAR I'm not saying that the guy with the better skill grade + combine, should end up being the better player, obviously scouts make mistakes, I'm just saying that if all the available info says one guy is better, he should be the one rated as the higher prospect

So are my scouts simply dyslexic, and they just get things backward on occasion?

It really kinda pissed me off to see the QB I was sure would be a good number one now leaving me with no idea if he is worth picking up or not. Saying at one point that he is the number one overall prospect, then simply a mid second is a rather large difference.

All year long he was up at number on on the board, and my scouts said he was an early first round pick, only to have them come back into my office at the end of the year and say, "Whoops sorry we don't know what the hell were doing we thought he was great, the rest of the league thinks hes great, but you know I had a nightmare last night where he threw 6 interceptions so I went to a psychic in the morning and she said that he will be a bust. So you know we gotta recommend you pass."

Gah

[shadowkaga]

my guess is he had an injury and his INJ rating dropped, which affects true talent value. I would also wait a few weeks to make a decision on him because sometimes it takes a few week advances for the draft board to update.

[ParaAut]

I would not focus too much on the "real draft value" - especially after the draft class tuner, because I think they did not update the round projection. Most of the players are now real value undrafted, even if they are projected to be 2nd round.

I don't know exactly how the real value is calculated, but I believe Awareness (and quite likely development) is a huge part of it. That would mean, your QB is either very low in Awareness (which would be no problem at all) or maybe only normal development.

But as I said, don't focus too much. If he has good skills (and looks like they are quite nice) and combine numbers are ok (depending on what you look for in a QB), then draft him regardless of projection.

[JimmyT85]

Like shadow said, injuries could have happened, or "off field" character issues like get mentioned in the draft stories?

[timhere1970]

Quote: Originally Posted by JimmyT85

Like shadow said, injuries could have happened, or "off field" character issues like get mentioned in the draft stories?

I am of the opinion that awareness plays way to big of a role in draft value. My team has gotten so good that I am debating imposing a draft only undraftable players rule on myself.

[Sajiky]

Quote: Originally Posted by ParaAut

Most of the players are now real value undrafted, even if they are projected to be 2nd round.

Yeah thats something else I've noticed. I would guess that roughly half the players I have scouted in this entire season have come out evaluated as undraftable. It feels like it would project out to only about 3 rounds worth of players being listed as worthy of being in the draft.

If all of this is true, then it would seem that the original prospect list is a much better indicator of a players true draft value, than your scouts input. Which is the exact opposite of how it should work.



As far as the Qb being injured thought, if he is simply injured then he should still be worth it since raising his injury skill is cheap.

Off topic anyone ever scouted an A+ skill? Pretty sure I haven't, so that throw power A seems pretty sweet.

[wd417]

With the new tuned draft classes, they appear to be very poor in quality which is fine, but in my CFM its night and day from before the tuning update. Last draft in mine, there were probably 12 CBs projected in the first 3 rounds, this time around the top CB was listed as 2nd on the board but after scouting is "undrafted" next down is a 4th projected whose real value is late 3rd and it gets much worse very quickly. Excited to see how this draft will play out because it wasn't until recently that I realized that scouting will matter more than usual with the update. I spent the majority of the season seeing a players first skill and if it wasn't at least a B- then I'd quit scouting. Problem I've realized now is that these are the majority of players this time around and will need to scout well to determine who might be mediocre now but has potential versus who won't cut it during late rounds.

Side note, have a QB dilemma along these lines as OP's original question. I will be trying to get a QB in the first round of the draft as this class has 5 QBs all 1st round projections and grades. My pick will likely be in the 15-20 range so should have a shot at a couple of them. Here's where am a bit confused and I feel like this ties into the original post here to explain the difference in projection. Im gonna list out the top 5 QBs in descending order and their top 3 skills below:

1) Keltner- 6'5, 233, Florida- Pocket passer, Throw Power- A-; Throw Acc Short B+, Throw on Run- B
2) Plackemeier - 6'2, 216, Miami- Mobile: TH Power: B+; Throw ACC Short: B Throw on Run: B-
3) Nagy, 6'3, 228, Texas, Pocket Passer: TH Power: B+, Th Acc short: B+, Th on Run: B
4) Jerman, 6'2, 212, Auburn, West Coast: Throw Power: A-, Throw on Run: B+, Throw Acc Short: B
5) James Boyce, 6'3 228, Penn State, Pocket Passer: Throw Power: A-; Throw Acc Short: A- Throw Acc Med: B

Keltner, Plackemeir, and Nagy were all rated as true talent early first round picks; Jerman was mid first and Boyce is late first round. But at least to me, Boyce seems like the most physically talented of all the QBs. He's the only one with two A skills, granted their A- but still. Would the fact he's rated as a late first round with these physical skills mean his awareness is a lot lower than the other prospects? Also, I've seen the CPU teams stick close to these projections, so that means some team will likely take him 24-32 in Round 1. If I do end up with the 10th to 15th pick as looks likely, is he worth taking then or going with a higher rated on the board QB?

[bokchoy]

Quote: Originally Posted by Sajiky

Off topic anyone ever scouted an A+ skill? Pretty sure I haven't, so that throw power A seems pretty sweet.

I have seen A+ throw power and that's about it. For other positions, its possible for an A- skill to become A if they have a favorable storyline update (winning Heisman, beast combine etc.)