View Full Version : Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)
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Qwikshot
05-06-2008, 01:34 PM
I hoep someone scans jackyl....
(puff) if jackal is a knight then I don't think anyone but another knight can scan him...
PurdueBrad
05-06-2008, 01:35 PM
Did I miss something? What is with the puff? Makes me think of the three little pigs and the wolf, "I'll huff and puff and blow your house down."
PurdueBrad
05-06-2008, 01:35 PM
Or maybe YOU are the herbalist, puffing on the wacky tobaccy.
claphamsa
05-06-2008, 01:36 PM
he did that last game... stays in chracter.
Lathum
05-06-2008, 01:36 PM
unvote Jackyl
vote St.Cronin
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 01:37 PM
KWhit (6) - ntndeacon (226), st.cronin (273), Narcizo (467), RendeR (481), jeheinz72 (492), claphamsa (495)
No Lynch (4) - path12 (386), The Jackal (430), Neon Chaos (446), Qwikshot (451)
The Jackal (3) - hoopsguy (290), oliegirl (374), KWhit (405)
hoopsguy (2) - mccollins (177), Sonic Youth (286)
st.cronin (2) - PurdueBrad (426), Lathum (505)
Barkeep49 (1) - Chief Rum (237)
RendeR (1) - Anxiety (238)
Qwikshot (1) - Barkeep49 (314)
Qwikshot
05-06-2008, 01:38 PM
(puts on sherlock holmes hat, calabash pipe and magnifying glass again)
(puff puff puff)
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:38 PM
Ok explain that Lathum?
Why make a move that disticntly saves one player over another?
PurdueBrad
05-06-2008, 01:39 PM
(puts on sherlock holmes hat, calabash pipe and magnifying glass again)
(puff puff puff)
Hehe, gracias Qwik, wasn't sure.
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:40 PM
That move really pings my warning sensors......
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 01:41 PM
That move really pings my warning sensors......
I was thinking the same thing RendeR
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:41 PM
UNVOTE KWHIT
VOTE THE JACKAL
Lets see if someone tries to save one of them at the last instant.
Alan T
05-06-2008, 01:42 PM
1. Do we have a vote count?
2. Hi, Alan! Going to join the party at some point? Would love to hear your thoughts (you are in this game, correct?)
Nope, not in this game, just ignore me I am a wallflower :)
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:42 PM
Crap, thats only 5-4, someone on the no lynch or throw away votes move to jackal , lets beat the bushes a bit.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 01:43 PM
Here's what I have, correct me if I'm wrong:
Qwikshot -- Barkeep49 (314)
No Lynch -- path12 (386), The Jackal (430), Neon_Chaos (446), Qwikshot (451)
hoopsguy -- mccollins (177), Sonic Youth (286)
The Jackal -- Lathum (277), hoopsguy (290), oliegirl (374), Kwhit (405)
mccollins --
claphamsa --
Kwhit -- ntndeacon (226), st.cronin (273), Narcizo (467), RendeR (481), jeheinz72 (492), claphamsa (495)
Barkeep49 -- Chief Rum (237)
RendeR -- Anxiety (238)
st.cronin -- PurdueBrad (426)
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 01:43 PM
Here's what I have, correct me if I'm wrong:
RendeR moved to Jackal
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:43 PM
Nope, not in this game, just ignore me I am a wallflower :)
I've met that band, and you're not in it.
PurdueBrad
05-06-2008, 01:43 PM
Crap, thats only 5-4, someone on the no lynch or throw away votes move to jackal , lets beat the bushes a bit.
Remember the pawns though...
Also, if there is no move, does that mean we take both as villagers? We got Pass through three of these votes last game as a wolf w/o trying to save him, so I'm not sure this tells us much.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 01:44 PM
nm, that's based on old stuff.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 01:44 PM
And Lathum moved to Cronin
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 01:45 PM
KWhit (5) - ntndeacon (226), st.cronin (273), Narcizo (467), jeheinz72 (492), claphamsa (495)
No Lynch (4) - path12 (386), The Jackal (430), Neon Chaos (446), Qwikshot (451)
The Jackal (4) - hoopsguy (290), oliegirl (374), KWhit (405), RendeR (512)
hoopsguy (2) - mccollins (177), Sonic Youth (286)
st.cronin (2) - PurdueBrad (426), Lathum (505)
Barkeep49 (1) - Chief Rum (237)
RendeR (1) - Anxiety (238)
Qwikshot (1) - Barkeep49 (314)
RendeR
05-06-2008, 01:45 PM
Prawns? Prawns is good eatin.....err..wait you said pawns..nevermind...
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 01:47 PM
How does a tie with No Lynch work? Is No Lynch removed from the game?
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:48 PM
This is f'in ridiculous.
path12
05-06-2008, 01:48 PM
How does a tie with No Lynch work? Is No Lynch removed from the game?
I was wondering that myself, though the only person I'd vote for right now is oliegirl and that doesn't seem to be viable either.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 01:49 PM
How does a tie with No Lynch work? Is No Lynch removed from the game?
From the rules (but I added some bold):
You may vote "No Lynch" any day, and if that option has more votes than any other option, no pieces will be removed from the game.
path12
05-06-2008, 01:53 PM
You and your rules.
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 01:53 PM
From the rules (but I added some bold):
I read the rules. I was asking for clarification. That post really doesn't make an attempt to clarify though I believe I've divined the answer.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:54 PM
Gonna have to go self preservation, I guess.
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 01:55 PM
Unvote Qwikshot
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 01:55 PM
Vote KWhit
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:56 PM
Anyone want to move their vote. I feel completely railroaded here as all I did was try to work out a strategy and then vote where it made sense. And somehow that is suspicious?
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:58 PM
Grrrrrrr.
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 01:58 PM
KWhit, I don't think you're suspicious at this point, but the math on why lynching is good has won me over.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:58 PM
Anyone?
KWhit
05-06-2008, 01:59 PM
Unvote The Jackal
Vote Hoopsguy
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 02:00 PM
I also wouldn't have changed my vote had KWhit not started talking about self preservation (which is what I'd do in his shoes). So I will take no acclaim if KWhit is a wolf.
Abe Sargent
05-06-2008, 02:00 PM
Dropped a laptop on my big toe, right foot and was taking care of that instead of voting. Blast.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 02:00 PM
I read the rules. I was asking for clarification. That post really doesn't make an attempt to clarify though I believe I've divined the answer.
I guess that's all there is. If the "No Lynch" option does not have more votes than any other option, nothing happens regarding it. A tie between No Lynch and another option means that No Lynch does not have more votes.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:02 PM
I never know when to make deadline votes. Do votes recorded at 3:00 count?
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:03 PM
I never know when to make deadline votes. Do votes recorded at 3:00 count?
I played it safe and voted at 2:59 in this case, but I'm never sure (because I hardly EVER make deadline votes like that).
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
I never know when to make deadline votes. Do votes recorded at 3:00 count?
I forgot to say something about that in the rules. Since most GMs lately have been allowing 3:00 deadlines, I will too.
By the way, deadline.
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
I guess that's all there is. If the "No Lynch" option does not have more votes than any other option, nothing happens regarding it. A tie between No Lynch and another option means that No Lynch does not have more votes.
Basically a tie between No Lynch and a Player means the Player dies, is what you're saying.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
I would think a vote with the same timestamp as the deadline would count.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
Anyone have any corrections?
Qwikshot --
No Lynch -- path12 (386), The Jackal (430), Neon_Chaos (446), Qwikshot (451)
hoopsguy -- mccollins (177), Sonic Youth (286), Kwhit (536)
The Jackal -- hoopsguy (290), oliegirl (374), RendeR (512)
mccollins --
claphamsa --
Kwhit -- ntndeacon (226), st.cronin (273), Narcizo (467), jeheinz72 (492), claphamsa (495), Barkeep49 (531)
Barkeep49 -- Chief Rum (237)
RendeR -- Anxiety (238)
st.cronin -- PurdueBrad (426), Lathum (505)
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
I would assume they do - I'm not sure how changing to me is "self preservation" but maybe I'll find out when Pass is done with his write-up.
I hope it isn't what I think it is, as that would potentially be bad for the villagers on a couple of different levels.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 02:04 PM
Basically a tie between No Lynch and a Player means the Player dies, is what you're saying.
Right.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:05 PM
Don't know if I'm dead or not, but I really do believe that it's more important to play this like chess than like ww. Take a look at the winning conditions. Based on them, I think the Bishop is much more important than the Knight. We need to find out who is on the other team (black v white) much more than we need to find out who the wolves are (that's important too of course).
I'm not a wolf and would welcome a scan if I'm alive.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:07 PM
I would assume they do - I'm not sure how changing to me is "self preservation" but maybe I'll find out when Pass is done with his write-up.
I hope it isn't what I think it is, as that would potentially be bad for the villagers on a couple of different levels.
Wasn't really sure how to play this. My guiding principles in situations such as these is "since I KNOW I'm not a wolf, I have to do anything I can to stay alive."
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 02:09 PM
Coming back to a couple of questions that were asked about my reveal:
1.) If I was lying about my role, the person I'm swapping PMs would have come after me - I can't envision a scenario where that isn't the case. Fake reveals are going to be tough this game as long as your partner is alive.
2.) I believe they have a slightly elevated trust of me based on the tone of our conversations - I felt like we had a pretty good exchange of information. All things being equal, I would have been pretty unlikely to vote for him today and I think that was reciprocated.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 02:11 PM
For the first time, Black and White band together, temporarily, to put an end to the Wolf problem. The voice of the mob points from one to the other, shifting tide and momentum several times. Some pieces say one name, then the next minute, start calling out another (causing the GM much distress). In the end, the group decides that hoopsguy must be removed from the game. "But...I'm a Rook!" he claims. "We don't care, we're getting rid of you anyway!" cry the pieces. Hoopsguy was a Black Rook! As the pieces leave his mangled body in its corner square, they eventually hear a distant howling come from inside his decaying soul. Hoopsguy was a wolf! The next morning, after the pieces have explored new areas for the night, you awake to find that Barkeep49's body has been eaten by wolves. Barkeep49 was a White Knight and a villager!
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 02:11 PM
Wasn't really sure how to play this. My guiding principles in situations such as these is "since I KNOW I'm not a wolf, I have to do anything I can to stay alive."
I understand and play the same way, with very few exceptions. I can't really see a reason for different play on Day 1.
Anyway, assuming I'm around people should know where to find me tonight if they want some validation.
Neon_Chaos
05-06-2008, 02:11 PM
So that's why hoops didn't like the No Lynch...
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 02:12 PM
Boo.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:12 PM
YES!!!!!!
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 02:12 PM
Wow, nice play KWhit!
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 02:12 PM
So that's why hoops didn't like the No Lynch...
To be continued after the game, if people still want to discuss.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:12 PM
Booyah!
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:13 PM
WOW. Hoopsguy getting lynched as a wolf on day 1? That's... crazy.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:13 PM
Sucks to lose BK - a Knight.
Abe Sargent
05-06-2008, 02:14 PM
WOW. Hoopsguy getting lynched as a wolf on day 1? That's... crazy.
Crazy good!
claphamsa
05-06-2008, 02:15 PM
woa, so I was sure Kwit was goign..... yeay!
Abe Sargent
05-06-2008, 02:15 PM
We got a ton of info to go back and look over, but I am going to go bakc and work on my injured toe some more. it's very discolored. and ouchy
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:15 PM
Looks like you're dead though.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:15 PM
McCollins, Sonic Youth, and KWhit all voted for hoopsguy - enter the circle of trust.
Additionally, hoopsguy said he did NOT want to vote for Neon Chaos for some reason. There was one other player he mentioned being DIStrustful of, going to look for it now.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 02:17 PM
Not to pat myself on the back too much, but that's the second game in a row I handed you guys a wolf on day one.
Let's not screw it up this time, okay?
:)
claphamsa
05-06-2008, 02:17 PM
so we know kwit is the white king right?
claphamsa
05-06-2008, 02:18 PM
so wouldnt that be an obvious go after for the others?
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:18 PM
Looks like you're dead though.
DOH, ignore this.
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:22 PM
so wouldnt that be an obvious go after for the others?
Kings can't be lynched or night-killed, so there really is little danger in them coming out, they have to be mated on the board.
path12
05-06-2008, 02:24 PM
so we know kwit is the white king right?
:confused: Why?
mccollins
05-06-2008, 02:25 PM
so we know kwit is the white king right?
How would we know that? There's always the possibility of "heavy" pawn votes.
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:25 PM
:confused: Why?
Well we don't know the color, but we can assume he was A king due to the fact that he was the leading vote getter and he moved the lynch to hoopsguy.
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:25 PM
If I remember right pawns can't do anything until turn 4 or something I believe.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 02:28 PM
If I remember right pawns can't do anything until turn 4 or something I believe.
They can't use their power (which escapes me) but I think each Pawn gets 1 vote per PAwn they control. If I'm mathing it out right, they each control 4 pawns.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:30 PM
I think KWhit must be a pawn. The rules say the king applies their duking ability via pm - KWhit wouldn't have had to change his vote if he were a king.
mccollins
05-06-2008, 02:30 PM
If I remember right pawns can't do anything until turn 4 or something I believe.
Starting Night 4, you can learn the location on the board of one player (this will be their location as of the end of the night). If you end up controlling more than one Pawn (in the very likely event that there are less than 32 players in the game), your vote will count once for each Pawn you control (this will not be revealed as long as you're alive).
Sounds like their votes are 'heavy' from the get-go. They control 4 pieces from the beginning and each piece has a vote.
Lathum
05-06-2008, 02:31 PM
nice job KWhit.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:31 PM
Relevant part of the rules:
King
You are the leader of your team, and the prime target of your enemies. Your opponents win by killing you. You cannot be lynched or killed by wolves. You must submit a name to me via PM -- that person will be lynched instead of you, if you're a leading vote-getter. This name can be changed at any time. If the person you submit is the other King, then the name that the OTHER king submits will be lynched. If both kings submit each other's names, then no one will be lynched as a result of voting for the King. The King's color will not be revealed in this process. On the board, you may move one space in any direction. You can see up to three spaces away from you. You may communicate via PM with your Queen.
Its possible KWhit is a king, and moved his vote in order to disguise that fact. But even if he's a king, I don't think we know what color he is.
Lathum
05-06-2008, 02:32 PM
McCollins, Sonic Youth, and KWhit all voted for hoopsguy - enter the circle of trust.
Additionally, hoopsguy said he did NOT want to vote for Neon Chaos for some reason. There was one other player he mentioned being DIStrustful of, going to look for it now.
why are you in such a hurry to put them in a COT, it's not like it is unheard of for a wolf to vote another wolf day 1
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 02:35 PM
why are you in such a hurry to put them in a COT, it's not like it is unheard of for a wolf to vote another wolf day 1
Agreed. I'll put KWhit in the COT, but not the other two. I mean they easily could've been thinking they were wolf on wolf with no consequence only to see KWhit duke it to hoops.
KWhit in
Other Two a tick to the trust area at most.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:36 PM
why are you in such a hurry to put them in a COT, it's not like it is unheard of for a wolf to vote another wolf day 1
Think of it as a soft COT, pending further info. Do you have a specific reason to distrust one of those players?
Lathum
05-06-2008, 02:38 PM
Think of it as a soft COT, pending further info. Do you have a specific reason to distrust one of those players?
no, but whats your hurry?
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:38 PM
Hoopsguy also several times tried to generate interest in a lynch of either mccollins or SY. Combine that with their vote on him, and ... well, I think it would be silly not to trust them for now.
RendeR
05-06-2008, 02:39 PM
Think of it as a soft COT, pending further info. Do you have a specific reason to distrust one of those players?
I tihnk the more important aspect is that there is no reason TO trust them at this point. Day 1 votes really don't mean a lot.
mccollins
05-06-2008, 02:40 PM
I tihnk the more important aspect is that there is no reason TO trust them at this point. Day 1 votes really don't mean a lot.
I guess I'd have to agree with that. I voted for hoopsguy last night, but me leaving my vote on him all day long was pretty much just my wolfdar serving me well.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 02:42 PM
What do you guys think as far as deducing who Hoops' partner was in the event the wolves were paired together?
claphamsa
05-06-2008, 02:43 PM
Well we don't know the color, but we can assume he was A king due to the fact that he was the leading vote getter and he moved the lynch to hoopsguy.
and doesnt the king know who is his color? I need to go reread again :(
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 02:43 PM
*shrug*
I trust those three players. You guys come up with your own COT, I happen to like mine.
path12
05-06-2008, 02:56 PM
KWhit in
Other Two a tick to the trust area at most.
Not me. A lean good to KWhit, but we don't know how much of that vote was pawns and how much might have been anything else.
Other than that, I trust myself and one other and that's it. But as cronin said, everyone's got their own trust list.
path12
05-06-2008, 02:57 PM
What do you guys think as far as deducing who Hoops' partner was in the event the wolves were paired together?
I've never forgotten vouching for Anxiety as my brother and him being a wolf. Possible that wolves are paired, but logic tells me they weren't.
path12
05-06-2008, 03:00 PM
hoops drives conversation and analysis. Yes, he's a dangerous wolf, but he's a helluva villager as well. I'll look askance at anyone who votes him off day 1.
By the way, I shan't be looking askance at those folks after all.
Passacaglia
05-06-2008, 03:02 PM
All PMs have been sent out. Let me know if you didn't get one, or have any questions. Also, you can give out any info you want in the PM, but please don't quote me -- and even if you do, quotes can be faked pretty easily here.
Barkeep49
05-06-2008, 03:03 PM
Considering that I really didn't want to come out of my WW hiatus I wish to thank the wolves for knocking me off early. Good luck to my knight partner, the white team, and the villagers.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 03:07 PM
I've never forgotten vouching for Anxiety as my brother and him being a wolf. Possible that wolves are paired, but logic tells me they weren't.
It wouldn't surprise me though if they were mirror images of each other, for game balance purposes. For instance, the wolves could be:
Black Rook
Black Bishop
White Rook
White Bishop
oliegirl
05-06-2008, 03:12 PM
It wouldn't surprise me though if they were mirror images of each other, for game balance purposes. For instance, the wolves could be:
Black Rook
Black Bishop
White Rook
White Bishop
So since there are 2 black rooks, does that mean the other black rook is probably not a wolf, at least according to your theory?
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 03:32 PM
Does anybody have any ideas on what to do with board information?
path12
05-06-2008, 03:42 PM
Does anybody have any ideas on what to do with board information?
We could get a pretty good idea of what's going on (board-wise) if everyone shared it.
I'm not good enough at math to figure out just how infinitestimal that chance of happening is though.
Lathum
05-06-2008, 03:43 PM
is there an updated map of the board?
Lathum
05-06-2008, 03:44 PM
Path, I just pinged you in the GD
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 03:51 PM
If we reveal though aren't we essentially revealing our piece? That seems dangerous.
path12
05-06-2008, 03:56 PM
If we reveal though aren't we essentially revealing our piece? That seems dangerous.
Hence the infinitestimal chance. Though could you reveal things around you without giving that away? I kind of doubt it, but at least the pieces who had a range of more than one square could I guess.
mccollins
05-06-2008, 03:56 PM
Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.
path12
05-06-2008, 03:57 PM
Path, I just pinged you in the GD
Hey, that tickles! Knock it off.
path12
05-06-2008, 03:57 PM
Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.
Who asked? I'm just speculating.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 03:58 PM
Sorry guys, but asking for that type of info seems very wolfy to me.
Agreed. I think if we did that we'd be playing right into the wolves. We're down 1 knight as is.
I'd say as far as losing pieces on the board, the less we can lose to the wolves in that manner the better. I mean sure, some people will die via the board, but that's expected in the Black vs White end of the game. I just don't want some opportunistic wolf being able to add to that total.
mccollins
05-06-2008, 03:59 PM
Who asked? I'm just speculating.
Don't get defensive, I'm just saying.
I'm not sure how white or black will win unless more things are revealed, but I figure that will come with time.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 04:02 PM
How do the wolves benefit from knowing the board? I don't think they need to know where a player is to kill him, do they?
mccollins
05-06-2008, 04:04 PM
How do the wolves benefit from knowing the board? I don't think they need to know where a player is to kill him, do they?
Thinking through it, it seems the only way for us to patchwork a board together would be to reveal our piece types.
And it seems like most people don't want to reveal that yet.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 04:07 PM
I figure the wolves likely know a big chunk of the board, I don't think we want to hand them the name that goes with the pieces just yet.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 04:10 PM
I figure the wolves likely know a big chunk of the board, I don't think we want to hand them the name that goes with the pieces just yet.
This makes sense. But anyway, I wasn't really asking whether I should reveal my board knowledge, I was more curious if anybody had ideas on what to do with it, because I'm pretty much stumped.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 04:15 PM
This makes sense. But anyway, I wasn't really asking whether I should reveal my board knowledge, I was more curious if anybody had ideas on what to do with it, because I'm pretty much stumped.
Yeah, mine certainly doesn't paint much of a picture. I certainly don't know enough about chess to predict moves either.
For the record, I think sharing board knowledge is going to come into play at some point. I just don't think we're there yet. I mean opening moves in Chess are somewhat standard anyhow, I'd imagine they are even moreso here given the pieces are essentially moving independently of each other. Heck, Queens, Bishops and Rooks could still be "locked in" depending on pawn movement.
I'd like to see us have another fruitful day or two like today, tilting the game a touch more to Black vs White, before we go there. I think it'll make it into more of a chess game and less of us will have incentive to lie.
path12
05-06-2008, 04:24 PM
I mean opening moves in Chess are somewhat standard anyhow.
Yeah, but opening moves usually only have one piece moving rather than 20. I think that will throw a wrench in optimal chess strategy.
jeheinz72
05-06-2008, 04:28 PM
Yeah, but opening moves usually only have one piece moving rather than 20. I think that will throw a wrench in optimal chess strategy.
That's exactly my point. There is a coordination to them that we certainly don't have here I'd bet.
The Jackal
05-06-2008, 04:40 PM
Well done KWhit! FWIW, I did try to scan hoops, and got no return on him.
Abe Sargent
05-06-2008, 05:05 PM
I've never forgotten vouching for Anxiety as my brother and him being a wolf. Possible that wolves are paired, but logic tells me they weren't.
Yup, so I look for it in my partners too.
oliegirl
05-06-2008, 05:24 PM
I doubt that wolves are paired with wolves, that just seems that it would put the wolves at a disadvantage (which I'm all for), but I don't see Pass working that sort of dynamic into the game.
ntndeacon
05-06-2008, 05:33 PM
well at least 2 folks know their color now.
st.cronin
05-06-2008, 05:36 PM
VOTE NEON CHAOS
Abe Sargent
05-06-2008, 05:47 PM
well at least 2 folks know their color now.
Six folks. All rooks and knights know their colors now.
ntndeacon
05-06-2008, 05:48 PM
of course Anxiety. I can't count. lol
mccollins
05-06-2008, 05:55 PM
Do the Kings and Queens also know their colors? I've re-read the rules and I still can't tell.
Looks like the Bishops should know their colors soon if not already?
path12
05-06-2008, 06:01 PM
However, only the Bishops, Kings, and Queens will know what color they are. Rooks, Knights, and Pawns will be told they're White, and the board will appear to them as if they're White, regardless of what color they really are.
Looks like the Bishops, Kings and Queens know their true color.
mccollins
05-06-2008, 06:06 PM
Thanks, I only re-read the parts about the King & the Queen.
So add to that the Knights and Rooks now know their colors and the whole back row now knows their colors. Shouldn't be long before the pawns figure out their colors.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 06:21 PM
My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.
So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.
I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.
Does that make sense?
mccollins
05-06-2008, 06:28 PM
My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.
So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.
I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.
Does that make sense?
"While they're close by"?
From my reading of the rules, Bishops scan solely by name with no regard to proximity. Proximity is a constraint on the Knights' scanning ability.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 06:38 PM
"While they're close by"?
From my reading of the rules, Bishops scan solely by name with no regard to proximity. Proximity is a constraint on the Knights' scanning ability.
Ah. I need to re-read that piece description then.
KWhit
05-06-2008, 06:42 PM
I had the Bishop role all wrong in my head:
Bishop
You have studied long and hard to learn the true nature of evil. You may choose to examine one person each turn, and find out if they are on the same team as you. On the board, you may move as many spaces as you like, in any diagonal direction. You can see up to two spaces away from you. You may communicate via PM with the other Bishop of your color.
So there's not a role that can match a player with their piece on the board.
oliegirl
05-06-2008, 09:27 PM
I'm off to watch DWTS and then off to bed...I'll see everyone in the morning - hopefully ;)
hoopsguy
05-06-2008, 10:15 PM
Thank you all for making Day 2 such an exciting read so far. This is great.
Chief Rum
05-06-2008, 11:57 PM
:D
Actually Chief Rum managed it in the Rome game with about 20 people still alive. Unfortunately it played right into the hands of the wolves.
Oh, yeah, you're on the list. :D
Sonic Youth
05-07-2008, 12:30 AM
Kings can't be lynched or night-killed, so there really is little danger in them coming out, they have to be mated on the board.The only reason for them not to come out at the moment is that it would give the colours an idea where they would be once they find out who the King is. It also means that that colour can then target every other player in the point for elimination too, to make things easier in mating.
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 12:33 AM
Thank you all for making Day 2 such an exciting read so far. This is great.
Good Lord, I haven't even gotten to the Day One lynch. Is it going to take me forever to comb the roller coaster posts from today's results?
Heh, these midday deadline games are killer.
I couldn't have made a less impression on the board yesterday, what wiuth my time constraints, so I was really blocked in trying to help out with analysis or getting a good view of the situation. I am going to have to cram in more analysis tonight before I disappear, maybe double or triple my post count. ;)
Sonic Youth
05-07-2008, 12:44 AM
Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 01:38 AM
Think of it as a soft COT, pending further info. Do you have a specific reason to distrust one of those players?
I can't speak for the others, but I got a bad vibe off of mccollins hunt of KWhit. It felt like an overt attempt to drum up KWhit as a target, beyond what his actions called for. I also agree that a vote for hoospguy, especially when he seemed in the clear at deadline, is not as compelling a reason to put someone in the COT at this point.
Right now, I only trust KWhit and myself, and I don't think my partner is a wolf either (although that's vertainly not proven).
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 01:47 AM
My theory is that there is a white rook who is a wolf. This would be to balance out the black rook wolf.
So I think the white bishops should take a look at the rooks and find out who they are player wise. At some point in the future we may need that information revealed so that the knights can view those players to see if they're wolves.
I'm not advocating that the bishops reveal the names yet, but the bishops should view them now while they're close by.
Does that make sense?
There seems to be a lot of sentiment toward assuming there is some symmetry to placement of the wolves. IMO, there are only a few things I would take as likely regarding the wolf roles: 1. There are the same number on each team for balance purposes, so there are an even number; 2. Almost has to be 4, because 2 is too small and 6 is too large
Everything else is a leap, including making any assumptions that pairs are wolf mates or that there is "piece" balance in the wolf assignments. I believe they were randomly selected, and the only given non-wolves are the kings.
If we follow this logic, BTW, we do now have only one wolf on the black team. At this point, I don't think that makes an appreciable difference in the odds, but something to think about later (especially if you're a knight and can scan some people).
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 01:51 AM
Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?
No. I thnk Barkeep was targeted, not the Knight. The wolves just got lucky. They went for one of the top players not under suspicion (of course, hoops was the only top top player by most estimation under suspicion, and he was a wolf, so they were free to choose any other non-wolf top player).
If you go off of Anxiety's WW player ranking, it was Lathum or BK, and Lathum always is more likely to get lynched with his style of play. So going for BK makes sense.
Of course, I don't think anyone would have batted an eye if the wolves had a different idea of who was dangerous and killed me or cronin or Anxiety off, or any other of a number of strong players in this game.
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 02:29 AM
Actually, wait a sec. Pet theory which may prove useful.
What is the chance a knight is a wolf? Just on sheer numbers. Let's say we assume four wolves (two per side), random piece selection, and take out the kings. So there is a 22% (2 wolves/9 each side) chance of any given player on a side being a wolf. And with two knights, each role has the same 22% chance of the wolf role picking out a knight. First time you role for wolf, 22% chance that wolf is a knight, or 78% chance he is not. Let's say a knight doesn't get hit. Now there is a 2 in 8 (25% chance) of hitting a knight the second time around, removing the player who is already a wolf. That is a 75% chance of wolf =! a knight. Our chance of not having a knight be a wolf on any side is (78%) times (75%), which is (7/9) * (3/4) = (21/36), down to 7/12, or 58.3% chance that a side does not have a wolf knight.
But my theory only needs one wolf knight to work. Each side has a 58.3% chance of NOT having a wolf knight. But the chance neither side has a wolf knight? 58.3% * 58.3% = (7/12) * (7/12) = (49/144) = 34%.
Guys, there is only a 34% chance that we don't have a wolf knight on this board from the get go. Which means we likely DO have a wolf knight.
Okay, let's say you're this wolf knight. Likely enough, your partner knight is not a wolf. In fact, you will know this (you know who the wolves are), so we will assume the partner knight is not a wolf. And you know his name. And you know knights are about as close to a seer as this game has. People, the wolves were likely handed the name of a seer from the start of this game.
That name was Barkeep, and he was betrayed by partner, the other white knight.
And we know one other knight already--The Jackal. He may or may not be the partner knight. But the point is, two other people already know if he is or not--the other knights still alive. So I say, vote for The Jackal. His partner should reveal and come to his defense if The Jackal was not BK's partner. And if he was, the other two knights should both reveal and reveal him for who he is (rooks, be prepared to protect our good knights).
Revealing those knights is risky, but with the benefit of getting another wolf this early in the game? I say it's worth a shot, especially with three remaining bodyguards.
Not going to say there isn't risk (34% chance of a wolf knight is hardly a shoo in), and if The Jackal is not Barkeep's partner, revealing yourself as The Jackal's partner will not reveal BK's actual partner--we will just know it was the other white knight (and should try to kill him in the chess game).
But I thought I would throw this theory out there and let you guys hash it out while I am at work (wish I could be around, but I won't be able to).
VOTE THE JACKAL
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 02:47 AM
Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.
Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).
The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.
I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).
Chief Rum
05-07-2008, 02:50 AM
Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.
Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).
The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.
I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).
Thanks, Narcizo. Excellent idea to take my theory a step further. Having The Jackal announce his color would certainly lessen the risk of this plan.
I, too, agree it is unlikely The Jackal was BK's partner because that would seem to be too up front. But it's something we can rule out now (or we get a wolf, no lose there).
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 02:51 AM
That's a bit of a stretch, CR, even for me.
I echo Narcizo's thoughts that it would probably be poor play for the Wolves to do so, as it would cause even more suspicion.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 06:53 AM
I don't have time for an analysis but here's the donkey work. I'm not going to be around much I'm afraid. Now these votes should be taken with a pinch of salt because of the pawns, but they still indicate trends and how people were thinking.
jeheinz votes Qwikshot (159)
path votes No Lynch (161) 1-1
Anxiety votes No Lynch (169) 2-1
KWhit votes No Lynch (170) 3-1
Barkeep votes No Lynch (175) 4-1
Mccollins votes hoopsguy (177) 4-1-1
claphamsa votes Jackal (179) 4-1-1-1
hoopsguy votes mccollins (180) 4-1-1-1-1
Jackal votes claphamsa (185) 4-1-1-1-1-1
Anxiety unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (191) 3-2-1-1-1-1
PurdueBrad votes hoopsguy (193) 3-2-2-1-1-1
Render votes hoopsguy (197) 3-3-2-1-1-1 (ties hoops up with no lynch)
Jackal unvote clap, vote No Lynch (217) 4-3-2-1-1 (no lynch one up on hoops)
Lathum votes No Lynch (225) 5-3-2-1-1 (No Lynch up by two over hoops, three on Jackal)
NTNDeacon votes KWhit (226) 5-3-2-1-1-1
Narcizo votes Jackal (232) 5-3-3-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with Hoops, two after no lynch)
Chief Rum votes Barkeep (237) 5-3-3-1-1-1-1
Anxiety unvotes Jackal, votes RendeR (238) 5-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (Leaves hoops in second place)
Neon votes No Lynch (245) 6-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (No Lynch now three ahead)
Sonic votes No Lynch (253) 7-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 (No Lynch four in the lead)
st.cronin votes KWhit (273) 7-3-2-2-1-1-1-1 (KWhit ties with Jackal in third place)
KWhit unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (275) 6-3-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with hoops in second place)
Lathum unvotes No Lynch, votes Jackal (277) 5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Pushes Jackal into second place, one behind no lynch, one ahead of hoops)
Sonic Youth unvotes No Lynch, votes hoops (286) 4-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 (Makes three way tie between Jackal, hoops and No Lynch)
Neon unvotes No Lynch, votes hoops (289) 5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Pushes hoops into the lead, No Lynch down to third)
Hoops unvotes mccollins, votes Jackal (290) 5-5-3-2-1-1-1 (Ties Jackal with hoops)
Path unvotes NO Lynch, votes Qwikshot (300) 5-5-2-2-2-1-1 (Ties Qwik with No Lynch and KWhit, three off the lead)
KWhit unvotes Jackal, votes Qwikshot (307) 5-4-3-2-2-1-1 (Put hoops in lead, moves Qwikshot to third)
Barkeep unvotes No Lynch, votes Qwikshot (314) 5-4-4-2-1-1-1 (Hoops-Jackal-Qwikshot-KWhit-No Lynch-Bark-Render)
Jackal unvotes No Lynch (333) 5-4-4-2-1-1
Jackal votes Qwikshot (335) 5-5-4-2-1-1 Tie Qwik with hoops, one above Jackal
Qwik shows up
Jackal unvotes Qwik (355) 5-4-4-2-1-1 Hoops in the lead again
Jeheinz unvotes Qwik (360) 5-4-3-2-1-1
oliegirl votes Jackal (374) 5-5-3-2-1-1
Path unvotes Qwik, votes No Lynch (386) 5-5-2-2-1-1-1 Qwik sinking out of consideration
Jackal votes hoops (387) 6-5-2-2-1-1-1 Hoops in the lead Jackal claims self-preservation
Hoops reveals as rook 402
KWhit unvotes Qwik, votes Jackal (405) 6-6-2-1-1-1-1 pushes Jackal into tie with Hoops
Qwik votes Jackal (411) 7-6-2-1-1-1-1 pushes Jackal ahead of hoops
heinz votes KWhit (413) 7-6-3-1-1-1-1 KWhit is four off Jackal, three off of hoops
Neon unvotes hoops, votes Jackal (415) 8-5-3-1-1-1-1 Jackal now three in the lead
heinz unvotes KWhit, votes Jackal (419) 9-5-2-1-1-1-1 Jackal now four in the lead
PurdueBrad unvotes Hoops, votes st.cronin (426) 9-4-2-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal five in the lead
Jackal unvotes hoops (430) 9-3-2-1-1-1-1-1 Jackal six in the lead
Jackal reveals as knight (430)
Jackal votes no lynch (434) 9-3-2-2-1-1-1-1
Neon unvotes Jackal, votes No Lynch (446) 8-3-3-2-1-1-1-1 ties No Lynch up with Hoops on three, five off of Jackal
Qwik unvotes Jackal, votes No Lynch (451) 7-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 NO Lynch three off of Jackal
Narcizo unvotes Jackal, votes KWhit (467) 6-4-3-3-1-1-1-1 Jackal-No Lynch-Hoops-KWhit
Render unvotes hoops, votes KWhit (481) 6-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 Ties Kwhit up with No Lynch)
Heinz unvotes Jackal votes KWhit (492) 5-5-4-2-1-1-1-1 Ties Kwhit with Jackal in the lead
Clap unvotes Jackal, votes KWhit (495) 6-4-4-2-1-1-1-1 Puts KWhit two into the lead, ahead of Jackal and No Lynch
Lathum unvotes Jackal, votes st.cronin (505) 6-4-3-2-2-1-1-1
Render unvotes KWhit, votes Jackal (512) 5-4-4-2-2-1-1-1 KWhit one ahead of Jackal and No Lynch
Barkeep unvotes Qwik, votes KWhit (531) 6-4-4-2-2-1-1 KWhit two up on Jackal and No Lynch
KWhit unvotes Jackal, votes Hoops (536) 6-4-3-3-2-1-1
If Jackal is bad then the evidence looks pretty damning against at least one of clap, heinz and myself (and Barkeep but we know he was a villager). That's about all I've got time to say at the moment.
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 07:37 AM
Hmmm.
Since hoops was a wolf, and he had a PM partner who was also a Rook, is it safe to assume that that if that person is a villager, then the Wolves already know who he is (by virtue of hoops telling them).
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 07:44 AM
I have KWhit and McCollins in my CoT, with, almost, no doubt. I'm not 100% sold on Sonic but I'm leaning towards trusting him as well.
I think we probably have a wolf in the No Lynchers, one in the KWhit voters and one amongst the rest. If Jackal isn't a wolf then we had what winded up looking a fairly safe day for the wolfies at the end, KWhit switching at the end and having 4 votes (presumably) caught them off guard.
I'm also inclined to think that there's either no wolf controlling pawns or that person wasn't around at deadline. I think that they would have their vote on KWhit or Jackal (presuming he's not a wolf) at the end to try and make sure Hoops was safe. But that's a bit more of leap.
No more time. Again.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 07:45 AM
I think we probably have a wolf in the No Lynchers, one in the KWhit voters and one amongst the rest. If Jackal isn't a wolf then we had what winded up looking a fairly safe day for the wolfies at the end, KWhit switching at the end and having 4 votes (presumably) caught them off guard.
So they would probably be trying to spread their vote around.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:11 AM
I'll be honest, no reason not to be. BK was my partner, I'm the other white knight. We knew he was at risk because he'd always be a prime wolf target, but we'd hoped they would turn elsewhere. I have no idea where to go with my vote today.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:12 AM
For the record, I think it's a really bad idea to have another Knight come forward at this point.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:14 AM
I'm sure the wolves are hoping you lynch me, because I'm a safe guard each night for the rooks without any other pieces being revealed. I'll take suggestions on who to scan tonight if you like; there are a fair number of pieces around me.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:14 AM
For the record, I think it's a really bad idea to have another Knight come forward at this point.
Agreed. But the other two knights will know I'm not lying, at least.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:24 AM
Agreed. But the other two knights will know I'm not lying, at least.
Not necessarily.
You could still be lying if you were a wolf and the other white knight is also a wolf. You'd know that he wouldn't contradict your statement.
I'm not saying you are - just making sure people are aware of the possibility.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:30 AM
I purely meant about being the other white knight. I'm not a wolf, but no, no one can confirm that yet.
mccollins
05-07-2008, 08:32 AM
For the record, I think it's a really bad idea to have another Knight come forward at this point.
I fully agree and I find it suspicious that Chief Rum would write a tome trying to explain why our Seers should announce themselves.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:32 AM
I'm struggling with the thoughts that the wolves were assigned randomly. I just don't know if that makes sense.
I wonder at the balance of the game if a Queen were a wolf, for instance. Or even a Knight or pawns with their ability to have their vote count for 4.
And I do think it's possible (or likely) that there is symmetry in who the wolves are between the white and black teams, meaning that there would be a white rook wolf to balance Hoops (black rook).
So if you are a villager white rook, keep a close eye on your partner. At some point it may be worth revealing the two white rooks to test this theory.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 08:33 AM
Would it make any sense for one of the black knights to come forward with their information, to help guide our vote today? If only one of them steps forward, the three rooks would have an excellent shot at protecting him.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:34 AM
I purely meant about being the other white knight. I'm not a wolf, but no, no one can confirm that yet.
I was saying that you may not even be the white knight. If you're a wolf and if the other white knight were a wolf, you could still have made your reveal knowing it wouldn't be disputed.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:36 AM
Would it make any sense for one of the black knights to come forward with their information, to help guide our vote today? If only one of them steps forward, the three rooks would have an excellent shot at protecting him.
I think it's too early for that yet. It's likely they haven't even made a successful scan yet.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:37 AM
I was saying that you may not even be the white knight. If you're a wolf and if the other white knight were a wolf, you could still have made your reveal knowing it wouldn't be disputed.
Good point, I didn't think about that. But I have no one left to PM with now. :(
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 08:38 AM
I'm about to head to work. No idea what my schedule will be like, but I'll try and come around as often as possible.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 08:43 AM
Vote StCronin
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:47 AM
Vote StCronin
Drive by.
Although I can guess why he's voting for him.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 08:49 AM
I was saying that you may not even be the white knight. If you're a wolf and if the other white knight were a wolf, you could still have made your reveal knowing it wouldn't be disputed.
Barkeep was the other white knight. If Jackal is a black knight the other black knight would know who he is and counter his reveal, even if the other white knight is a wolf. I don't really think there's much need to doubt that Jackal is who he says he is.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 08:49 AM
Drive by.
Although I can guess why he's voting for him.
I can't. I don't think I should be above suspicion, but it would be nice to be able to respond.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 08:50 AM
In terms of colour. Whether he's a wolf or not is still up in the air.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 08:52 AM
I'm struggling with the thoughts that the wolves were assigned randomly. I just don't know if that makes sense.
Except that's what Pass told me. Now there might be a case where Pass randomly selected a wolf and then picked his counterpart on the other side as a wolf. I think that would fit in with his response to me. But there was definitely a random element in it.
Honestly I think you're better off PMing yourself and seeing what he says, or asking him to post here.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 08:55 AM
Barkeep was the other white knight. If Jackal is a black knight the other black knight would know who he is and counter his reveal, even if the other white knight is a wolf. I don't really think there's much need to doubt that Jackal is who he says he is.
No. My point is that it's possible Jackal is a wolf and is some other piece like a bishop or something, but a different wolf is the other white knight and shared that info with Jackal. Jackal may have chosen to use the other wolf's identity because he knew that claiming to be a knight would likely save him.
I'm not saying it's likely, but The Jackal suggesting that just because someone doesn't come forward to dispute what he says means that he's definitely telling the truth. It doesn't.
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 09:04 AM
(puff puff) Just checking, my dear Watson...let's assume that the addition of wolves to the game does add a certain dynamic...but chess is a game of balance is it not. We know each piece possesses a power, a role. So adding in wolves, would they not, for the balance of power, be mirror images? (puff) So the question is, would there be a twist, or not? If a black rook is evil, then surely the other rook knows of this trough dialogue, should any chatter have targeted specific person or persons, the good rook should know this...
I'm sure that if a wolf is able to talk with other wolves, then knowing hoops was a wolf rook, the black queen, king and other rook are compromised...
Now I'm not sure if a rook has to be adjacent to whom he/she protects, but I would assume that would be the case. Then the rook and queen are in a bad way because the wolves know who they are.
Still I must assume that a wolf still is bound by the laws of the chessboard, and thus cannot kill a piece without it being adjacent to them, or perhaps even, killed by the boundaries of their chess piece's move?
So if the white knight was killed, the closest in proximity if bound by chess pieces would the a white rook or a white queen as pawns cannot go backwards and other pieces need to move several times to get to such location (i.e. the knight, the king, or a black piece).
Just my thoughts...
(puff puff)
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:08 AM
There is nothing in the rules about wolves or rooks needing to be near or adjacent to their targets.
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 09:08 AM
Looks like I didn't miss much overnight.
CR's theory looks good. I can't decide it I believe it though or if it looks "too" good in a contrived way.
I'd like to know why Lathum voted Cronin and why Cronin voted Neon, for varying reasons.
claphamsa
05-07-2008, 09:11 AM
jackyl who did you scan?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:11 AM
Heinz, I voted Neon because hoops mentioned a couple of times that he trusted him. This could be because Neon is the other black rook, or it could be because Neon is a wolf, or it could be a false clue. Its a pretty weak argument, so I could probably be talked out of it.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 09:18 AM
I'm sure the wolves are hoping you lynch me, because I'm a safe guard each night for the rooks without any other pieces being revealed. I'll take suggestions on who to scan tonight if you like; there are a fair number of pieces around me.
Given his voting record yesterday I'd like you to scan Heinz. My only problem is that if you're a wolf then it's a pretty pointless exercise.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 09:19 AM
No. My point is that it's possible Jackal is a wolf and is some other piece like a bishop or something, but a different wolf is the other white knight and shared that info with Jackal. Jackal may have chosen to use the other wolf's identity because he knew that claiming to be a knight would likely save him.
I'm not saying it's likely, but The Jackal suggesting that just because someone doesn't come forward to dispute what he says means that he's definitely telling the truth. It doesn't.
Ah! Gotcha. Good point.
A bishop needs to scan Jackal then. Although there's no guarantee that he isn't another white piece if he's a wolf.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 09:23 AM
No, hold on. If he's not a knight then surely his partner would have blown the whistle on him by now. Unless his partner is a wolf.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:28 AM
KWhit had 2 votes for a long time yesterday - from me and ntndeacon. Jackal and hoopsguy were more or less tied for several pages. Heinz cast the third vote on KWhit, and his vote seemed to trigger a lot of movement for some reason.
There are a number of players who strike me as possible wolves based on how yesterday played out - at least heinz, Lathum, and Jackal, probably a couple of others if I think about it. It should be noted that RendeR has been much quieter than normal. Also, Narcizo has me worried.
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 09:34 AM
Heinz, I voted Neon because hoops mentioned a couple of times that he trusted him. This could be because Neon is the other black rook, or it could be because Neon is a wolf, or it could be a false clue. Its a pretty weak argument, so I could probably be talked out of it.
I'm fairly sure he's not the other black rook if you re-read his reveal.
That would leave him being a wolf, and would hoops be so blatant about it?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:39 AM
I'm fairly sure he's not the other black rook if you re-read his reveal.
That would leave him being a wolf, and would hoops be so blatant about it?
He wasn't that blatant, but either way: maybe, especially if you think about hoops trying to move the vote YESTERDAY, rather than being overly worried about clues.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 09:41 AM
KWhit had 2 votes for a long time yesterday - from me and ntndeacon. Jackal and hoopsguy were more or less tied for several pages. Heinz cast the third vote on KWhit, and his vote seemed to trigger a lot of movement for some reason.
There are a number of players who strike me as possible wolves based on how yesterday played out - at least heinz, Lathum, and Jackal, probably a couple of others if I think about it. It should be noted that RendeR has been much quieter than normal. Also, Narcizo has me worried.
I agree that my voting yesterday should give people reason to doubt me. I considered voting hoops when it seemed he was the main candidate to the No Lynch but I thought he was too valuable a villager to lynch on day one (and I like him being around posting) so I held off and then there was a lot of movement onto Jackal and the no lynch option seemed to disappear so I didn't see a need to move onto him.
I maintain that KWhit's voting pattern and general play yesterday was suspicious though, as was the pile onto Jackal once Hoops revealed. If Hoops hadn't turned out to be a wolf I'd be voting KWhit in an instant today.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:47 AM
Narc, obviously I agree with you about KWhit.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 09:47 AM
Cronin was in way to big of a hurry to put people in a COT yesterday, struck me as very wolfish.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 09:50 AM
Ok, then why did you vote for me YESTERDAY? That was also a hit and run vote.
claphamsa
05-07-2008, 09:51 AM
dp we have ay voting records yet? Im actually busy at work :(
Lathum
05-07-2008, 09:52 AM
Ok, then why did you vote for me YESTERDAY? That was also a hit and run vote.
I was high
Lathum
05-07-2008, 09:53 AM
dola- on vicoden, I don't take recreational drugs.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 09:57 AM
Narc, obviously I agree with you about KWhit.
You jumped all over my votes yesterday and in so doing misrepresented what I said more than once. Your continued accusations drove a lot of votes my way I think. I think maybe I could have explained myself better initially, but the reasons why I voted for who I did are EXACTLY THE SAME reasons why most people were voting for either Hoops or Jackal.
It struck me that you were focusing your wrath on me when it wasn't warranted.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:00 AM
You jumped all over my votes yesterday and in so doing misrepresented what I said more than once. Your continued accusations drove a lot of votes my way I think. I think maybe I could have explained myself better initially, but the reasons why I voted for who I did are EXACTLY THE SAME reasons why most people were voting for either Hoops or Jackal.
It struck me that you were focusing your wrath on me when it wasn't warranted.
This is correct, I was wrong yesterday. Still, we did get a wolf out of all that.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 10:06 AM
This is correct, I was wrong yesterday. Still, we did get a wolf out of all that.
Uhhh... This sounds like you're taking some credit for that.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 10:07 AM
jackyl who did you scan?
Hoops, and I got no return.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:08 AM
Uhhh... This sounds like you're taking some credit for that.
I just mean I don't regret playing the way I did.
Sonic Youth
05-07-2008, 10:10 AM
What's the latest vote count?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:12 AM
I think there are just two votes, one on Neon and one on me.
Narcizo
05-07-2008, 10:15 AM
Uhhh... This sounds like you're taking some credit for that.
To be fair I think you can agree that bagging Hoops was an accidental by-product of you trying to save yourself.
On the other hand I have to agree that I've noticed before that cronin is often quick in dishing out trust when he's a wolf.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:16 AM
actually 3 votes so far:
Neon Chaos - 1 - st.cronin (619)
The Jackal - 1 - Chief Rum (638)
st.cronin - 1 - Lathum (659)
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:19 AM
On the other hand I have to agree that I've noticed before that cronin is often quick in dishing out trust when he's a wolf.
You can go back and re-read hoops posts yourself, but he referenced SY, mccollins, and Neon Chaos a couple of different times. Its possible that he knew was going to get lynched and was leaving false clues, but I think its MORE likely that he was trying to drive the vote. If you assume that he was trying to drive the vote, then you have to have a higher level of trust for Sonic and mccollins, and lower level of trust for Neon. When in doubt, keep it simple.
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 10:25 AM
KWhit had 2 votes for a long time yesterday - from me and ntndeacon. Jackal and hoopsguy were more or less tied for several pages. Heinz cast the third vote on KWhit, and his vote seemed to trigger a lot of movement for some reason.
.
This actually isn't true, really.
I initially cast a 3rd vote on KWhit (413) but then once I saw Jackal's strange plea of "I wish people thought I made a good villager" I switched to him (6 posts apart and no one else voted KWhit in between)
My actual vote for KWhit was at 492, making it a 5-5 tie with he and Jackal with No Lynch at 4. I did this because...
A) I abhor No Lynch
B) I didn't want to take a risk that Jackal is indeed a villager-knight
C) I wasn't going to cast a throwaway vote and
D) Something seemed "up" with KWhit yesterday be it his miscommunications or whatever ended up in lynching hoops instead of him that caused it.
FTR, he's the lone person besides me in my COT now.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 10:26 AM
Hoops, and I got no return.
this is the kind of thing that always set off my wolf radar.
If it looks like there is even a remote possibility why not have a conditional order out in?
KWhit
05-07-2008, 10:28 AM
What do you guys think about the theory that one of the white rooks is a wolf (to balance the black rook wolf - hoops)?
I'd like to hear some thoughts on that. Because we could possibly gain a lot from having them reveal.
We would be able to look closely at their voting history. And the other white knight, Jackal, would know who to scan tonight if they let him know what side of the board they were on. That way, he could target a scan on the one that he is closest to. I worry that this kind of coordination is the only way we're going to get much out of our knight scans because it's going to be unlikely for the person chosen for the scan to be in range of the knight doing the scanning.
What do you guys think?
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 10:30 AM
st.cro, if I were a wolf in cahoots with hoops, i wouldn't have removed my vote for No Lynch and put in on hoops.
Neon unvotes No Lynch, votes hoops (289) 5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1 (Pushes hoops into the lead, No Lynch down to third)
It forced hoops to move his vote to the Jackal.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 10:30 AM
This actually isn't true, really.
I initially cast a 3rd vote on KWhit (413) but then once I saw Jackal's strange plea of "I wish people thought I made a good villager" I switched to him (6 posts apart and no one else voted KWhit in between)
My actual vote for KWhit was at 492, making it a 5-5 tie with he and Jackal with No Lynch at 4. I did this because...
A) I abhor No Lynch
B) I didn't want to take a risk that Jackal is indeed a villager-knight
C) I wasn't going to cast a throwaway vote and
D) Something seemed "up" with KWhit yesterday be it his miscommunications or whatever ended up in lynching hoops instead of him that caused it.
FTR, he's the lone person besides me in my COT now.
Be careful. st.cronin will probably want to lynch you for saying that.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:30 AM
I think its just a guess. I'm not crazy about trying to guess which pieces might be wolves.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 10:30 AM
this is the kind of thing that always set off my wolf radar.
If it looks like there is even a remote possibility why not have a conditional order out in?
I didn't think to put in a conditional order. FWIW I don't think BK did either, and he was also planning on scanning hoops. I'll make sure to have a conditional with further scans just in case.
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 10:31 AM
What do you guys think about the theory that one of the white rooks is a wolf (to balance the black rook wolf - hoops)?
I'd like to hear some thoughts on that. Because we could possibly gain a lot from having them reveal.
We would be able to look closely at their voting history. And the other white knight, Jackal, would know who to scan tonight if they let him know what side of the board they were on. That way, he could target a scan on the one that he is closest to. I worry that this kind of coordination is the only way we're going to get much out of our knight scans because it's going to be unlikely for the person chosen for the scan to be in range of the knight doing the scanning.
What do you guys think?
Not likely.
That would have the Wolves knowing the identity of all the good rooks in the game.
claphamsa
05-07-2008, 10:32 AM
I need to vote as Im gogni to a meeting and not sure ill be back :(
vote path
not really any reason, just super busy, and need to vote so i cna move tonight. hopefully ill move it later!
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:33 AM
That's a good point, Neon.
UNVOTE NEON CHAOS
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:34 AM
VOTE LATHUM
path12
05-07-2008, 10:36 AM
I'm sure the wolves are hoping you lynch me, because I'm a safe guard each night for the rooks without any other pieces being revealed. I'll take suggestions on who to scan tonight if you like; there are a fair number of pieces around me.
How many pieces can you see and which colors are they? You don't need to specify which pieces you see, just the number and colors.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 10:37 AM
Not likely.
That would have the Wolves knowing the identity of all the good rooks in the game.
I thought about that. But since the wolves can communicate with their piece partner, we have to assume they already know a TON of information. It may be they know that info anyway. If one of the white rooks is a wolf, they DO already know it.
I'm just throwing the idea out there and thinking out loud. I don't know if it's the right thing to do or not. But right now, the wolves have all the information and we need to catch up on the information where we can.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 10:39 AM
How many pieces can you see and which colors are they? You don't need to specify which pieces you see, just the number and colors.
Eight, seven of which are white.
oliegirl
05-07-2008, 10:40 AM
OK guys, I'm here...crazy day at work so far...
I agree that the chances that Hoops partner is also a wolf are slim, and also am thinking that one of the white rooks is likely a wolf.
As for votes, I'm leaning away from NC at this point, I have a reason to think he's good - but can't elaborate at this point b/c it would involve revealing my role and I am not ready to do that. I'm going to do a little digging and might be able to give some more information shortly...
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 10:46 AM
I thought about that. But since the wolves can communicate with their piece partner, we have to assume they already know a TON of information. It may be they know that info anyway. If one of the white rooks is a wolf, they DO already know it.
I'm just throwing the idea out there and thinking out loud. I don't know if it's the right thing to do or not. But right now, the wolves have all the information and we need to catch up on the information where we can.
(puff) this is my thinking, I mean, it's gotta be overkill to have wolves intercommunicate, perhaps they can chat with their wolf counterpart on their side of the board, but cannot chat with their other color wolf counterparts until they reach that side or vicinity...it's just a giant advantage...
the other thing is that, all this talk of wolves could be just to allow one color to get moving against the other...there is a bigger game being played...
(puff puff) What's that Lestrade? Oh yes, well, if it's another case is it...just as long as it isn't a Hounds of the Baskervilles case...I hate dogs...
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 10:46 AM
Vote Lathum
Strange pattern of votes thus far. Votes No Lynch early when it was 4-3 NL over hoops
Then when it was 6 NL, 3 hoops, 3 jackal he switches to Jackal, avoiding hoops (why the initial no lynch vote then?)
Late in the day when it is 6 KWhit, 4 hoops, 4 Jackal he then throws his vote away onto Cronin without any explaination and he repeats a vote on Cronin today in a drive by
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:47 AM
Qwik, the rules specifically say the wolves can communicate with each other.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 10:50 AM
cronin is being insanely hypocritical.
Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.
Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.
KWhit
05-07-2008, 10:51 AM
cronin is being insanely hypocritical.
Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.
Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.
I'm agree.
Passacaglia
05-07-2008, 10:56 AM
FYI, in an hour I'm heading out for a lunch interview. I'll probably be out for an hour and a half, returning 30 minutes before deadline (but possibly later). So if you have any questions you want me to answer, get them in sooner. Also, I had a sick day yesterday, so I was home to answer IMs, but I'm not home there today -- use google talk, email, or PMs.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 10:57 AM
cronin is being insanely hypocritical.
Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.
Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.
Clearly you have not understood what I have written. I was on KWhit yesterday because he hemmed and hawed on whether he wanted the player he was voting for to actually be lynched. That, to me, is classic wolf behavior - "I'm voting for this player, but I don't really think they're a wolf, but we have to have a lynch, and I have to vote for somebody, blah blah blah." That was what I was getting from KWhit yesterday.
Today I'm voting for you because so far, as far as I can tell, you have the worst voting record of anybody - two votes for a villager. Your rationale for voting for me can be turned around on you - why are so hellbent on sowing distrust? We lynched a wolf yesterday - its perfectly legitimate to re-read his posts and start to put people in trust/distrust categories. Why aren't you willing to concede that? You can disagree with my logic on who to trust and distrust, but not the imperative to have varying levels of trust.
Sonic Youth
05-07-2008, 10:59 AM
The other thing to consider for a day one, is how conveniant it can be to hide behind the I don't like no lynch voting, but use it as a cover to place a vote on someone too. Though from yesterday, the only way that would work(no lynch) is if everyone posted what they saw. No one really has yet have they? Which would mean that it isn't viable. Not because it doesn't give us any information, but because no one would be lynched. We have plenty of information, but just that there is 3 main factions, but 1 is always knowing more where to target, and the rest won't share. Thus it can make using a No Lynch vote a great pit stop placement, like I did for instance, but also a place of suspicion(like St.Cronin's vote for KWhit because he went that route early on).
Sonic Youth
05-07-2008, 11:02 AM
Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?
I can't speak for the others, but I got a bad vibe off of mccollins hunt of KWhit. It felt like an overt attempt to drum up KWhit as a target, beyond what his actions called for. I also agree that a vote for hoospguy, especially when he seemed in the clear at deadline, is not as compelling a reason to put someone in the COT at this point.
Right now, I only trust KWhit and myself, and I don't think my partner is a wolf either (although that's vertainly not proven).
No. I thnk Barkeep was targeted, not the Knight. The wolves just got lucky. They went for one of the top players not under suspicion (of course, hoops was the only top top player by most estimation under suspicion, and he was a wolf, so they were free to choose any other non-wolf top player).
If you go off of Anxiety's WW player ranking, it was Lathum or BK, and Lathum always is more likely to get lynched with his style of play. So going for BK makes sense.
Of course, I don't think anyone would have batted an eye if the wolves had a different idea of who was dangerous and killed me or cronin or Anxiety off, or any other of a number of strong players in this game.
Actually, wait a sec. Pet theory which may prove useful.
What is the chance a knight is a wolf? Just on sheer numbers. Let's say we assume four wolves (two per side), random piece selection, and take out the kings. So there is a 22% (2 wolves/9 each side) chance of any given player on a side being a wolf. And with two knights, each role has the same 22% chance of the wolf role picking out a knight. First time you role for wolf, 22% chance that wolf is a knight, or 78% chance he is not. Let's say a knight doesn't get hit. Now there is a 2 in 8 (25% chance) of hitting a knight the second time around, removing the player who is already a wolf. That is a 75% chance of wolf =! a knight. Our chance of not having a knight be a wolf on any side is (78%) times (75%), which is (7/9) * (3/4) = (21/36), down to 7/12, or 58.3% chance that a side does not have a wolf knight.
But my theory only needs one wolf knight to work. Each side has a 58.3% chance of NOT having a wolf knight. But the chance neither side has a wolf knight? 58.3% * 58.3% = (7/12) * (7/12) = (49/144) = 34%.
Guys, there is only a 34% chance that we don't have a wolf knight on this board from the get go. Which means we likely DO have a wolf knight.
Okay, let's say you're this wolf knight. Likely enough, your partner knight is not a wolf. In fact, you will know this (you know who the wolves are), so we will assume the partner knight is not a wolf. And you know his name. And you know knights are about as close to a seer as this game has. People, the wolves were likely handed the name of a seer from the start of this game.
That name was Barkeep, and he was betrayed by partner, the other white knight.
And we know one other knight already--The Jackal. He may or may not be the partner knight. But the point is, two other people already know if he is or not--the other knights still alive. So I say, vote for The Jackal. His partner should reveal and come to his defense if The Jackal was not BK's partner. And if he was, the other two knights should both reveal and reveal him for who he is (rooks, be prepared to protect our good knights).
Revealing those knights is risky, but with the benefit of getting another wolf this early in the game? I say it's worth a shot, especially with three remaining bodyguards.
Not going to say there isn't risk (34% chance of a wolf knight is hardly a shoo in), and if The Jackal is not Barkeep's partner, revealing yourself as The Jackal's partner will not reveal BK's actual partner--we will just know it was the other white knight (and should try to kill him in the chess game).
But I thought I would throw this theory out there and let you guys hash it out while I am at work (wish I could be around, but I won't be able to).
VOTE THE JACKAL
Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.
Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).
The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.
I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).
Thanks, Narcizo. Excellent idea to take my theory a step further. Having The Jackal announce his color would certainly lessen the risk of this plan.
I, too, agree it is unlikely The Jackal was BK's partner because that would seem to be too up front. But it's something we can rule out now (or we get a wolf, no lose there).
For me, this chain of sequence look weird. First Chief Rum says there isn't much in my comment on and that it was probably because it was BK and not as we find out later, possibly because he is a Knight.
He then goes and cast suspicion on McCollins. One of 3 who had a vote stay on Hoops. Wouldn't it have been better to talk about say, Heiniz who cast the third vote on KWhit, or Narcizo who cast the 5th? Not to mention that it was ntndeacon with the first against him, and StCronin who cast the second.
What's this? Oh, it looks like something I suggested earlier. Just a little bit more fleshed out. And a vote to boot. I distinctly recall an earlier post saying that it was probably nothing more than Anxieties player ranking. Why then go on about it possibly being Jackal then? If it was, it's a bit obvious. Maybe that's the point. Still, it's odd to my eyes.
Narkle was included at this point, more so because of how he interacted with CR. I'm not sure what to make of him yet. The suggestion of colour was a good one, though probably so-so for Jackal. Jackal's scan of Hoops is not helping him, but that can happen as he did look periferal and a likely scan target. The only other thing is that Hoops was too far away to actually scan to get a reading(distance between a black Rook to a white Knight) for Jackal. Since no-one else has come out with a counter to Jackal's reveal, then we have to assume that he is BK's Knight partner.
This is my reasoning. And so I will vote this way.
Vote Chief Rum.
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 11:02 AM
Here's my theory on who the wolves are...
I'm not sure if it's entirely random...
At first, my theory was...
One rook, one knight, one bishop, and one queen are Wolves.
Wolves
Though you are a member of your team, you have different victory conditions. While the two teams are concerned with killing the enemy King, your goal is to kill all non-wolves, leaving just yourselves and the two Kings. A wolf may not be a King. Each night you may kill one player. You may not kill a King, but if you attempt to kill a King before he has been outed through the process of being a top vote-getter (or if it happened at the end of the day before your night kill), then you get two kill attempts the next night. The wolves will not be able to convert anyone to their team -- there is no mechanism where someone would become a wolf after the game has started. You may communicate via PM with the other wolves.
But then, I checked out the Wolves description... not sure if that means that the Wolves for sure don't know who the Kings are... but seeing as how they didn't seem to use this ability in their favor, they don't seem to know who the Kings are... hence, both queens are probably good.
So...
1 rook wolf (hoops)
1 knight wolf (????)
1 bishop wolf (????)
1 or 2 pawn wolves
Which, if true, means that one knight (Barkeep), a rook (hoops' PM partner), and a bishop are player identities that the Wolves already know.
Or...
I could be overthinking things...
PurdueBrad
05-07-2008, 11:05 AM
Clearly you have not understood what I have written. I was on KWhit yesterday because he hemmed and hawed on whether he wanted the player he was voting for to actually be lynched. That, to me, is classic wolf behavior - "I'm voting for this player, but I don't really think they're a wolf, but we have to have a lynch, and I have to vote for somebody, blah blah blah." That was what I was getting from KWhit yesterday.
I know this is going to get me brow-beaten after yesterday but is it possible that we had two wolves up yesterday and they chose to sacrifice the one that was playing above the radar and the one that dared suspicion and thus allowed KWhit to gain trust? The KWhit-St. Cronin dynamic led to me voting Cronin but I could've just as easily gone KWhit as well. Was any trust really gained yesterday?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:05 AM
Neon, the wolves wouldn't want to try to kill a king, would they?
path12
05-07-2008, 11:06 AM
What do you guys think about the theory that one of the white rooks is a wolf (to balance the black rook wolf - hoops)?
I'd like to hear some thoughts on that. Because we could possibly gain a lot from having them reveal.
We would be able to look closely at their voting history. And the other white knight, Jackal, would know who to scan tonight if they let him know what side of the board they were on. That way, he could target a scan on the one that he is closest to. I worry that this kind of coordination is the only way we're going to get much out of our knight scans because it's going to be unlikely for the person chosen for the scan to be in range of the knight doing the scanning.
What do you guys think?
I don't buy (at this point) the balanced wolf idea. I do believe the number of wolves are balanced between teams, however I think that the wolves were then generated randomly excepting the King. I can't think of a good reason why as a GM one would balance them within actual pieces.
One thing I'm wondering though. Can the wolf that makes the kill also move on the board? In that case knowing what pieces are where makes more sense in trying to find wolves.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:06 AM
I know this is going to get me brow-beaten after yesterday but is it possible that we had two wolves up yesterday and they chose to sacrifice the one that was playing above the radar and the one that dared suspicion and thus allowed KWhit to gain trust? The KWhit-St. Cronin dynamic led to me voting Cronin but I could've just as easily gone KWhit as well. Was any trust really gained yesterday?
I think that's possible but unlikely.
Neon_Chaos
05-07-2008, 11:07 AM
Neon, the wolves wouldn't want to try to kill a king, would they?
I'm thinking... if they know who the Kings are, they would've probably gone for one of them yesterday in order to have 2 night kills today. I know I would've if I were a wolf, just to create confusion.
Just saying.
Then again, they killed Barkeep... is it coincidence that he's a knight... and Jackal's partner?
path12
05-07-2008, 11:10 AM
Eight, seven of which are white.
How many of those are pawns?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:11 AM
Having 2 night kills makes it more likely that one of those might be blocked. I wouldn't have done that.
path12
05-07-2008, 11:11 AM
and also am thinking that one of the white rooks is likely a wolf.
Why?
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:12 AM
cdonin, your logic is laughable.
you are voting for me because I have to worst voting record?
On day 2.
Are you kidding?
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:17 AM
cdonin, your logic is laughable.
you are voting for me because I have to worst voting record?
On day 2.
Are you kidding?
No. Who should I vote for? The Jackal? The theories around him are ok, but my instinct says that hoops would have played yesterday a lot differently if he was on the same team as The Jackal. Qwikshot has been consistently wrong about the rules, but that's not necessarily wolfish. Ntndeacon? Maybe, he's also got a bad voting record. Heinz? Narcizo? I'm thinking about it.
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 11:18 AM
How many of those are pawns?
Six, and I think there are three different players in there. Why do you ask?
The Jackal
05-07-2008, 11:20 AM
dola
I'm only curious because I don't want to give too much info away about board placement in case you're trying to get the upperhand for the black team - though I've in no way really revealed where my teammates are, persay.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:20 AM
No. Who should I vote for? The Jackal? The theories around him are ok, but my instinct says that hoops would have played yesterday a lot differently if he was on the same team as The Jackal. Qwikshot has been consistently wrong about the rules, but that's not necessarily wolfish. Ntndeacon? Maybe, he's also got a bad voting record. Heinz? Narcizo? I'm thinking about it.
and your instics suited you so well yesterday with your suspicoun of kwhit
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:20 AM
and Heinzy, I know why you voted me, I'm onto you buddy
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:21 AM
and your instics suited you so well yesterday with your suspicoun of kwhit
My instincts are frequently wrong.
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:22 AM
Cronin, your continued reference to peoples voting records after one vote is beyond suspicous.
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 11:23 AM
I'm thinking... if they know who the Kings are, they would've probably gone for one of them yesterday in order to have 2 night kills today. I know I would've if I were a wolf, just to create confusion.
Just saying.
Then again, they killed Barkeep... is it coincidence that he's a knight... and Jackal's partner?
Kings can't be killed by wolves.
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 11:23 AM
and Heinzy, I know why you voted me, I'm onto you buddy
I think I made it pretty clear. You avoided a vote for hoops like the plague yesterday.
Granted, I didn't vote for him either so I'm not really in a place to talk...
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:26 AM
I think I made it pretty clear. You avoided a vote for hoops like the plague yesterday.
Granted, I didn't vote for him either so I'm not really in a place to talk...
c'mon heinzy, thats not the real reason. YOu and I both know it.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:28 AM
Wait a minute, I think The Jackal is lying about the board.
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 11:28 AM
Kings can't be killed by wolves.
Nevermind, I read it as an attack on a king, rather than a run on voting a king to get a night kill.
I /am/ at work doing this...(puff puff puff)
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:29 AM
UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE THE JACKAL
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:30 AM
Yeah, I'm pretty sure The Jackal is lying about the board, meaning:
His board is a composite of what the wolves can see, and he slipped up about what he *should* be able to see.
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:30 AM
Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.
mccollins
05-07-2008, 11:30 AM
After a quiet night, all these random (and drawn out) theories are a bit to process. With 2.5 hours til deadline, I'm surprised we don't have more votes out there. I have a few in my slightly distrust category, but I'm not sure where I'll place my vote yet.
mccollins
05-07-2008, 11:33 AM
Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.
This is how he should be able to see pieces if he's a knight:
You can see one space away from you, plus anywhere you would be eligible to move.
What are you suggesting he goofed with?
jeheinz72
05-07-2008, 11:33 AM
c'mon heinzy, thats not the real reason. YOu and I both know it.
Haha, yeah, I'm still bitter about the night 1 kill.
Nah, if I was, you'd have had my vote Day One. It's a mere bonus to this current thought of mine.
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 11:35 AM
Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.
I believe that the Jackal was in a rush for real world physical theraphy and scanned for hoops at my bequest because I had a theory that all the knights should scan him for validity of whether he was a wolf or not (knights can't identify roles other than werewolf - after reading the rules since I'm consistently wrong on the rules)...
However, Jackal probably thought he was doomed and didn't plan a contigency due to real life and figuring he wasn't going to exist much further.
He got nothing because hoops was gone from the board, regardless of location, had hoops still been in play I figure Jackal would have gotten a "not in this location" note...
(puffing away)
st.cronin
05-07-2008, 11:36 AM
What are you suggesting he goofed with?
I don't want to give away my role, but trust me, he is claiming to see a piece that he can't see.
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 11:36 AM
Since knights are right next to rooks, he should have been able to see him, unless he moved prior to scanning...
Qwikshot
05-07-2008, 11:37 AM
I don't want to give away my role, but trust me, he is claiming to see a piece that he can't see.
But he didn't get any information, so what did he see?
Lathum
05-07-2008, 11:37 AM
Haha, yeah, I'm still bitter about the night 1 kill.
Nah, if I was, you'd have had my vote Day One. It's a mere bonus to this current thought of mine.
that not it either.
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