WW 100: Game over!

[dubb93]

Can I post again yet Danny?

[Danny]

Autumn has been killed, he was the vampire and a villager.

[KWhit]

Grrr.

[path12]

That's not a surprise. See ya, Autumn.

[Autumn]

Render, nobody here has anything more to go on than you do, that doesn't mean anything.

And just becuase youre the survivor doesn't mean you're a villager. I'm not offended at all, but I would think you've played enough to know you're going to get lynched if you don't actually play.

[dubb93]

I got put on ice today. That is the reason why I was around most of the day and yet unable to post in the thread or vote all day.

[Lathum]

it was half gut and half "he's picking on me! STOP IT!" reaction....as you see I'm apt to have on little sleep heheheh

Again, sorry for getting heated lathum. But everyone calling me a newbie and thus is doing everything wrong is getting to me.

No worries. I'm an original player here and I still do everything wrong.

[CrimsonFox]

Maybe. I'm more swayed by my initial thoughts of Jackal's wolfishness before henry's "reveal" so I'm assuming that henry may be doing the 2nd level trickery thing. Now that we have nabbed a wolf, we'll be able to go back and see how what posts/votes become more interesting and informative now.


Well what about Day 1 with the vote for DT. That was one of the things that made me suspect Henry all along. He was one of the 3. Who else was in there? j23? EF was too wasn't he?

[Autumn]

oops, see ya guys, I was expecting that.

[CrimsonFox]

I got put on ice today. That is the reason why I was around most of the day and yet unable to post in the thread or vote all day.


Frozen dubb is better than no dubb at all.

[Lathum]

We need EF to post one of his vote histories

[path12]

We need EF to post one of his vote histories

hoops had one last page, didn't he?

[path12]

As of post #959:


(766) - Saldana votes PB (PB 1)
(780) - Saldana unvotes PB, votes CF (CF 1)
(789) - Path votes Saldana (CF 1, Saldana 1)
(793) - Lathum votes CF (CF 2, Saldana 1)
(799) - Path unvotes Saldana (CF 2)
(807) - Real Deal vote/unvote/vote KWhit
(814) - Real Deal killed by KWhit
(838) - DV votes Hoops (CF 2, Hoops 1)
(839) - KWhit votes The Jackal (CF 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1)
(845) - CF votes Saldana (CF 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, Saldana 1)
(851) - The Jackal votes KWhit (CF 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, Saldana 1, KWhit 1)
(855) - Autumn votes Schmidty (CF 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, Saldana 1, KWhit 1, Schmidty 1)
(862) - RendeR votes Saldana (CF 2, Saldana 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1, Schmidty 1)
(863) - J23 votes Schmidty (CF 2, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1)
(869) - Henry votes CF (CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1)
(870) - NTN votes CF (CF 4, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1)
(875) - Hoops votes DV (CF 4, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1, DV 1)
(879) - PB votes Saldana (CF 4, Saldana 3, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1, DV 1)
(894) - PB unvotes Saldana (CF 4, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, KWhit 1, DV 1)
(895) - PB votes KWhit (CF 4, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 2, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, DV 1)
(902) - PB unvotes KWhit (CF 4, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, DV 1)
(905) - PB votes Saldana (CF 4, saldana 3, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, DV 1)
(917) - NTN unvotes CF (CF 3, Saldana 3, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, DV 1)
(927) - PB unvotes Saldana, votes Henry (CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, The Jackal 1, DV 1, Henry 1)
(928) - KWhit unvotes The Jackal, votes Henry (CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, Henry 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, DV 1)
(938) - Path votes Henry (CF 3, Saldana 3, Henry 3, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, DV 1)
(946) - CF unvotes Saldana, votes Henry (Henry 4, CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, DV 1)
(951) - NTN votes Henry (Henry 5, CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1, DV 1)
(954) - Hoops unvotes DV, votes Henry (Henry 6, CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 2, KWhit 1, Hoops 1)
(959) - Autumn unvotes Schmidty, votes Henry (Henry 7, CF 3, Saldana 2, Schmidty 1, KWhit 1, Hoops 1)

There ya go.

[dubb93]

While I was on ice today I had alot of time to think why would someone put me on ice today and KWhit on ice yesterday?

Why put KWhit on ice the day after he is almost lynched? Sounds to me like someone wanted to see him lynched while not putting up a fight, yet the lack of votes he drew yesterday was surprising.

Why put me on ice today? I have been gunning for Saldana since the game started. Did they want me off his ass to buy him another day knowing he has to be lynched twice to kill him?

Again I don't know, but what I do know is that to me it seems like the mobster is being played by a wolf not a villager. I just can't see a villager icing KWhit the day after he was almost lynched and then icing me today.

[KWhit]

While I was on ice today I had alot of time to think why would someone put me on ice today and KWhit on ice yesterday?

Why put KWhit on ice the day after he is almost lynched? Sounds to me like someone wanted to see him lynched while not putting up a fight, yet the lack of votes he drew yesterday was surprising.

Why put me on ice today? I have been gunning for Saldana since the game started. Did they want me off his ass to buy him another day knowing he has to be lynched twice to kill him?

Again I don't know, but what I do know is that to me it seems like the mobster is being played by a wolf not a villager. I just can't see a villager icing KWhit the day after he was almost lynched and then icing me today.

Yep. That was my thinking on it as well.

[CrimsonFox]

dubb, i absoluytely agree. I think the mobster is a wolf. Making a suspect look MORE guilty and thus try to get him lynched.

[CrimsonFox]

I'm kinda weirded out by DV's voting patterns too. Just out of nowhere for no reason. Not sure.

[saldana]

so going off of what dubb just said, who hasnt claimed any role?

with the seer and the BG already dead, who has anything left to hide except for the people that are using their powers for ill gotten gains

[KWhit]

Here are the people who haven't revealed.

Hoopsguy*
Schmidty*
Darth Vilus
Jackal*
Ntndeacon*
J23*

And here are the roles left:

Schizophrenic (known to be good)
Mobster
Aware
Ballot-Box Stuffer
Distractor
Soothsayer

[KWhit]

Weird. Those asterisks are not meaningful at all. I just pasted that from OneNote and it did that itself for some reason.

[KWhit]

Here are the people who haven't revealed.

Hoopsguy
Schmidty
Darth Vilus
Jackal
Ntndeacon
J23

And here are the roles left:

Schizophrenic (known to be good)
Mobster
Aware
Ballot-Box Stuffer
Distractor
Soothsayer

[KWhit]

There we go. I dunno why it did that in the first post. I was just cutting and pasting people's names from the main list of sign ups.

[KWhit]

Ah. I figured out what the asterisks were. for some reason there were spaces after each of the players' names (except DV) and it changed them to asterisks when I pasted for some reason.

Oh Microsoft, you silly beast.

Just wanted to make sure nobody thought that was my personal suspicion list or something.

[ntndeacon]

so going off of what dubb just said, who hasnt claimed any role?

with the seer and the BG already dead, who has anything left to hide except for the people that are using their powers for ill gotten gains

I haven't but then again I hadn't had any use out of my role either.I am Aware. However no one has used an action against me.

[KWhit]

Well what about Day 1 with the vote for DT. That was one of the things that made me suspect Henry all along. He was one of the 3. Who else was in there? j23? EF was too wasn't he?

Me and Henry were the only uncleared people that voted for Dt on day one. That's why I was pretty sure he was a wolf. I knew I was a villager, and I figured one person from that list was likely a wolf.

Day 1 votes:
2 Darth Vilus - path12 (128) Crimson fox (132)
1 Path12 - Hoopsguy (133)
1 Crimson Fox - Darth Vilus (140)
4 Hoopsguy - Abe Sargent (147), RealDeal (150), RendeR (163), PurdueBrad (169)
1 PurdueBrad - Jackal (149)
5 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (151), henry296 (159), EagleFan (162), Kwhit (168), 1 Lathum (173)
2 Dubb - Saldana (156), Schmidty (158)
No vote: ntn, J23, DaddyTorgo, dubb93

[KWhit]

After ntndeacon's reveal:

Here are the people who haven't revealed.

Hoopsguy
Schmidty
Darth Vilus
Jackal
J23

And here are the roles left:

Schizophrenic (known to be good)
Mobster
Ballot-Box Stuffer
Distractor
Soothsayer

[CrimsonFox]

Funny thing is a lot of roles also let the person know it's being used on them. Although now I know that slut is not always one of them. I could slut you up if you like ;)

[hoopsguy]

I'm more than willing to give out my role, but it does narrow things on everyone else. But if people want it, I'll give it and indicate what I've done (or not done) with it.

It is a neutral role and does not, in and of itself, prove my goodness.

[RendeR]

Huh?


Not voting "path" but the proverbial "going down that path in his thinking"

[KWhit]

I'm more than willing to give out my role, but it does narrow things on everyone else. But if people want it, I'll give it and indicate what I've done (or not done) with it.

It is a neutral role and does not, in and of itself, prove my goodness.

I'm not advocating whether anyone should reveal one way or the other. I was just posting info. I will ask... Are you the mobster? If so, please explain your decisions.

[hoopsguy]

No, but I've got a pretty good guess as to who does have that role. Again, I'm not looking to go full disclosure on my role suspicions because I think that has more benefit to the wolves at the moment. Both in terms of who to target and how to manipulate the votes.

[dubb93]

Hoops if you think you know who the mobster is I would be curious to hear it since I am almost 100% that whoever has that role is a wolf. I can't think of a single reason why a villager would play that role the way it has been played to this point.

[KWhit]

Yeah, I'd really like the mobster to come out and explain himself.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops if you think you know who the mobster is I would be curious to hear it since I am almost 100% that whoever has that role is a wolf. I can't think of a single reason why a villager would play that role the way it has been played to this point.

Yeah, I'd really like the mobster to come out and explain himself.

I'm guessing that it is the resident Spartan fan. Agreed that this has been a tough role to figure and I would like to see it explained in thread by whoever has it.

That is the last one that I'll speculate on in thread tonight.

[KWhit]

Schmidty, no vote today?

Why, dude? You were around a couple of times before deadline.

[dubb93]

I think we got three solid candidates today ,IMO, in no particular order.

1. Jackal

Henry says he is a wolf. Henry is a wolf. Why does Henry say he is a wolf? Was he trying to buy trust by offering up The Jackal?

2. Schmidty

If he is actually the mobster I think he has to be a wolf. From what I have seen of that role being played on KWhit and myself, that role is being used for nefarious deeds.

3. Saldana

Was the mobster trying to give him cover? Why did he let us place him in a role that he isn't? And why was he constantly trying to encourage votes on other players earlier in the game and yet was not willing to cast a vote himself?

[Schmidty]

2. Schmidty

If he is actually the mobster I think he has to be a wolf. From what I have seen of that role being played on KWhit and myself, that role is being used for nefarious deeds.

Yep, I'm the Mobster. And no I'm not a Wolf. I didn't use the ability well. I pretty much used it to use it. That's why I said I didn't use the ability today. I srewed up. I didn't want to argue with KWhit when I targeted him, and the same thing for you. It was a bone-headed move, and I regret it. I deserve to be lynched. I haven't been paying enough attention to this game, and that sucks.

Sorry.

[J23]

Nice work nabbing a wolf tonight all.

Is it worth revealing roles when we have a kinda-seer in the schitzo?

[Darth Vilus]

Finally! It's about effing time that we nabbed a wolf, nice job people!

[saldana]

I got put on ice today. That is the reason why I was around most of the day and yet unable to post in the thread or vote all day.

so here we have someone saying they were iced today

Yep, I'm the Mobster. And no I'm not a Wolf. I didn't use the ability well. I pretty much used it to use it. That's why I said I didn't use the ability today. I srewed up. I didn't want to argue with KWhit when I targeted him, and the same thing for you. It was a bone-headed move, and I regret it. I deserve to be lynched. I haven't been paying enough attention to this game, and that sucks.

Sorry.

and someone else saying they didnt put anyone on ice today


hmmm....now it has been a while since I played this game, but i think that one of these two is lying

[saldana]

dola, if the soothsayer is around and still has a power, either of the posts above would be a wonderful one for you to check

[saldana]

3. Saldana

Was the mobster trying to give him cover? Why did he let us place him in a role that he isn't? And why was he constantly trying to encourage votes on other players earlier in the game and yet was not willing to cast a vote himself?

double dola, why is it that you keep coming back to things that I have already explained about 4 times?

[KWhit]

dola, if the soothsayer is around and still has a power, either of the posts above would be a wonderful one for you to check

Hold on here. I wouldn't use the soothsayer power yet until we hear from the two guys.

[KWhit]

1) Yes, but I'm not going to this day.
2) No. My power is kind of lame (no offense to the creator). Either that or I don't know how to use it best.

Here's Schmidty's post. This was posted last night, meaning he wasn't going to ice anyone yesterday. I believe dubb said he was iced the day before. He basically would have had to have been since it lasts 24 hours and he was posting again last night.

[saldana]

Here's Schmidty's post. This was posted last night, meaning he wasn't going to ice anyone yesterday. I believe dubb said he was iced the day before. He basically would have had to have been since it lasts 24 hours and he was posting again last night.

so if dubb was iced, it would have happened at N3, thus taking him out for the entirety of D4?...which means if schmidty didnt ice anyone at N4, then eveyrone should be free to post today.

[dubb93]

so here we have someone saying they were iced today



and someone else saying they didnt put anyone on ice today


hmmm....now it has been a while since I played this game, but i think that one of these two is lying

Eh, I said I was put on ice and then Schmidty says he didn't want to argue with KWhit when he iced him and he didn't want to argue with me when he iced me but he did them both anyway. What is the issue here? Why is it that this entire game you have been planting seeds of doubt and trying to cause confusion? Why would you have our soothsayer waste a scan on me claiming something and then Schmidty coming in and confirming that he did in fact do it to me?

Vote Saldana

I think Schmidty is a solid vote today too, but I think Schmidty was covering for Saldana when he iced me which makes me think that they think Saldana is more valuable than Schmidty at this time so I'm voting him first.

[saldana]

fine dubb, you have ignored everything i have said all game unless you are trying to spin it into something that it isnt...i didnt realize the ice lasted 24 hours from the previous day...the fact that you didnt vote yesterday actually has me on your side, ironically.

here is a fact that you cannot dispute...in voting for me, and attempting to get others to vote for me, you are pushing for yet another day of no lynch, which helps the village absolutely zero

vote schmidty

[hoopsguy]

1. Render - Survivor, demonstrated in thread
2. Hoopsguy - no role declared
3. Schmidty - claimed Mobster
4. Darth Vilus - no role declared
5. Abe Sargent - Night Kill Day 2, Bodyguard
6. Autumn - Night Kill Day 4, Vampire
7. Real Deal - Killed by Kwhit Day 4, Love em or Hate em guy
8. EagleFan - Night Kill Day 3, Seer
9. Lathum - Night Kill Day 1, Reborn Day 2 - "vanilla" by rule of resurrection
10. PurdueBrad - claimed Gladiator, referenced pretty cool in-thread drop
11. DaddyTorgo - Lynch Day 1, Crazy Granny
12. Jackal - no role claimed
13. Ntndeacon - claimed Aware
14. J23 - no role claimed
15. CrimsonFox - claimed Slut
16. Saldana - claimed Governor
17. Dubb - claimed Whiny Bitch
18. Path - claimed Resurrector, there has in fact been a resurrection
19. Kwhit - Vengeful God, demonstrated in thread
20. Henry - Lynched Day 4, Ghost Whisperer

[hoopsguy]

Now the "declared/non-declared" thing doesn't have a ton of value in determining factions, but I figured that I might as well publish my notes. The wolves have been doing a pretty good job of nailing roles, so I'm guessing they have a list pretty similar to this one.

The bummer about Henry as our first wolf is that he doesn't have as much of a thread trail as other players. But I'll see what I can come up with this afternoon. At the very least, we'll have voting records plus his bogus reveal as data points.

[hoopsguy]

Voting Record:
D1 - DaddyTorgo
D2 - KWhit
D3 - RendeR
D4 - CrimsonFox

So, who are the folks that he might have been protecting on those days? A quick look at the runner-up each day:
D1 - Hoops
D2 - PurdueBrad
D3 - RealDeal (distant, known villager)
D4 - none at end, he voted for runner-up

A deeper look at the timing of the votes to follow, which might give better information on who he could have been protecting on each day.

[hoopsguy]

In all cases, Henry's votes remained fixed. I believe he was available at deadline on most/all days, but can't say that with certainty.

Day 1 - vote for DT made a four-way tie with two votes. Others with two were Dubb, Darth, and Hoops.

Day 2 - vote for KWhit made it 4-3-3, bringing KWhit even with PurdueBrad and one back of CrimsonFox.

Day 3 - vote for RendeR makes total 5-3, opening up lead for RendeR over Saldana.

Day 4 - vote for CF pushes him out to 3-2-2 lead, breaking tie with Saldana and Schmidty.

[hoopsguy]

Likely out until this afternoon, but will go post diving on Henry's stuff then. I'm not hopeful of getting any gems, but you never know.

[Lathum]

This probably was addressed but can the Governor pardon themselves?

[saldana]

This probably was addressed but can the Governor pardon themselves?


The Governor - May issue a one time pardon of a player that is being lynched, if pardoned the player's role will be revealed but they will not be lynched.



i would say yes.

[Lathum]

Well I am wondering if that is an absolute or not.

TBH I think lynching Saldana may be the best move today. We are going to have to do it at some point, and the smaller the wolf/villager ratio gets the harder it will be to accomplish. I would rather not be in an end game situation where it will take 2 days to lynch the person we suspect.

[J23]

here is a fact that you cannot dispute...in voting for me, and attempting to get others to vote for me, you are pushing for yet another day of no lynch, which helps the village absolutely zero

If the governor is a wolf, we have to burn a day of no-lynch to be able to lynch them no matter what we do I think. Can it be blocked w/ a slutting?

[saldana]

Well I am wondering if that is an absolute or not.

TBH I think lynching Saldana may be the best move today. We are going to have to do it at some point, and the smaller the wolf/villager ratio gets the harder it will be to accomplish. I would rather not be in an end game situation where it will take 2 days to lynch the person we suspect.

and just what is it that makes you suspicious of me...so far the only people that have been on me are dubb, who always wants to lynch me, and IMO, is being extra stubborn this game, and CF, who you nearly had a Blademoment with yesterday.

[RendeR]

I will not be around for deadline tonight (Friday night out with the boys) So I will be getting my vote in early. I have 3 suspects on my list based on what others have posted thus far:

Henry - based on his voting record
Saldana - based on his responses to others (they just rub me wrong, nothing concrete, and if he is the governor and a wolf we have to hit him twice)
Schmidty - I think he's playing the "stupid" card regarding his choices of people to put on Ice. He's sneaky like that sometimes.

I'd welcome anyone elses thoughts on which to go after first. I'm open to all three.

[saldana]

for those of you that are thinking of voting me under the pretense that i would be a great wolf since you have to vote me twice, i make this offer, even though i dont think it does much in terms of helping the village (which is why i havent used my powers yet)

pick someone else to lynch, and I will waste my pardon on them tonight.

[Lathum]

and just what is it that makes you suspicious of me...so far the only people that have been on me are dubb, who always wants to lynch me, and IMO, is being extra stubborn this game, and CF, who you nearly had a Blademoment with yesterday.

Never said I was. But at some point you will plobably be lynched. My only point was that it may be eaiser to do it now.

[path12]

This probably was addressed but can the Governor pardon themselves?

I asked Danny this, he said yes.

[path12]

I will not be around for deadline tonight (Friday night out with the boys) So I will be getting my vote in early. I have 3 suspects on my list based on what others have posted thus far:

Henry - based on his voting record
Saldana - based on his responses to others (they just rub me wrong, nothing concrete, and if he is the governor and a wolf we have to hit him twice)
Schmidty - I think he's playing the "stupid" card regarding his choices of people to put on Ice. He's sneaky like that sometimes.

I'd welcome anyone elses thoughts on which to go after first. I'm open to all three.

Well, henry got lynched last night, so I'd probably go in a different direction. ;)

[dubb93]

pick someone else to lynch, and I will waste my pardon on them tonight.

This does not sound like a request a villager would make Sal. If you can pardon yourself why lynch someone else? What does it prove? Or are you planning on saying something like "haha, I got you guys," tomorrow after you don't use your power?

:confused: :confused:

[CrimsonFox]

If I were the Governor, I would not let anyone know. Because that means the wolves would know. And since the wolves know that it will be hard to lynch the governor, they would kill me quickly. So I would keep it quiet.

Saldana has been telling everyone, seemingly issuing a challenge to people. And his vagueness really screams bluff. He isn't the survior. He isn't the gladiator. Only thing he could be is the governor (if he isn't bluffing)

Also, he has the power to pardon and hasn't used it. I'm not sure how the pardon works. Do you say "I'm pardoning "so and so""? or "I'm pardoning whoever is lynched today." And when do you do it? I'm guessing before the deadline as that's how my ability works too. He could have pardoned DT or PB or Kwhit perhaps but hasn't made a move.

Based on the first point at least more than the second,

VOTE SALDANA

[CrimsonFox]

If the governor is a wolf, we have to burn a day of no-lynch to be able to lynch them no matter what we do I think. Can it be blocked w/ a slutting?

I have no idea. The rules on some of this aren't excatly explicit. Danny?

[CrimsonFox]

In all cases, Henry's votes remained fixed. I believe he was available at deadline on most/all days, but can't say that with certainty.

Day 1 - vote for DT made a four-way tie with two votes. Others with two were Dubb, Darth, and Hoops.

Day 2 - vote for KWhit made it 4-3-3, bringing KWhit even with PurdueBrad and one back of CrimsonFox.

Day 3 - vote for RendeR makes total 5-3, opening up lead for RendeR over Saldana.

Day 4 - vote for CF pushes him out to 3-2-2 lead, breaking tie with Saldana and Schmidty.


These two. A possible "Save Saldana" move.

[Lathum]

This does not sound like a request a villager would make Sal. If you can pardon yourself why lynch someone else? What does it prove? Or are you planning on saying something like "haha, I got you guys," tomorrow after you don't use your power?

:confused: :confused:

I agree. I'm not really sure what Saldana's plan would prove except if he is a wolf he would NOT grant the pardon, we kill a villager then have to spend the next two days trying to kill him.

If he does grant the pardon we still go a day with no lynch and someones role will be revealed.

[PurdueBrad]

I have to get a vote in as my day is about to get hectic (little guy sent home from day care, need to leave work early). Should check in later sorry.

vote Saldana

[hoopsguy]

This is what I show for votes, as of Post #1068:

(1046) - Dubb votes for Saldana (Saldana 1)
(1047) - Saldana votes for Schmidty (Saldana 1, Schmidty 1)
(1064) - CF votes Saldana (Saldana 2, Schmidty 1)
(1068) - PB votes Saldana (Saldana 3, Schmidty 1)

[hoopsguy]

I think the Path / Hoops discussion is typical day 1 banter with nothing else to go on and the dub votes are typical day 1. With nothing else to go on, I'll keep it close.

VOTE DaddyTorgo

This was the only meaningful post on Day 1 from Henry.

The timing of this was a little more than an hour before deadline (8:07 PM EST). This vote created a four-way tie with two votes between me, darth, dubb, and DT (known villager). An argument could be made that he was protecting any one of the three of us at that time.

Assuming he was around at the deadline and did not move his vote, the argument would be that he was protecting me since DT edged me out 5-4.

My personal takeaway from Day 1, based on knowing my own role/allegiances, is to look a little more closely at Dubb and Darth a a result. But with me not being cleared, I certainly expect to draw some scrutiny here.

[hoopsguy]

I guess we can start the day by looking at who voted for GrannyTorgo.

5 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (151), henry296 (159), EagleFan (162), Kwhit (168), 1 Lathum (173)

Working through this list, we have the following on DT:
Villagers: Autumn, EagleFan
Wolves: Henry
Neutral prior to resurrection: Lathum
Unknown: KWhit

[CrimsonFox]

This was the only meaningful post on Day 1 from Henry.

The timing of this was a little more than an hour before deadline (8:07 PM EST). This vote created a four-way tie with two votes between me, darth, dubb, and DT (known villager). An argument could be made that he was protecting any one of the three of us at that time.

Assuming he was around at the deadline and did not move his vote, the argument would be that he was protecting me since DT edged me out 5-4.

My personal takeaway from Day 1, based on knowing my own role/allegiances, is to look a little more closely at Dubb and Darth a a result. But with me not being cleared, I certainly expect to draw some scrutiny here.


Darth has been on my minor radar since the middle of the game, dubb not at all.

[CrimsonFox]

Working through this list, we have the following on DT:
Villagers: Autumn, EagleFan
Wolves: Henry
Neutral prior to resurrection: Lathum
Unknown: KWhit


Lathum IS a villager tho right? He has to be. How do you know EF is a villager? I've lost track.

[hoopsguy]

Just a reminder that my only day access is via phone so it may look like I'm one because my phone is on the site. I try to read when I get a free minute during the day. It is also why I probably won't post a lot.

I'm now home and had dinner...

I do trust Path and Lathum as that is a horrible move for a wolf. I think we could very easily focus on the no voters, DT voters and Hoops voters as each as 4 uncleared players.

I think Crimson Fox is also ok as he see his play as more typical newbie than wolf. Given the current run on PurdueBrad, I'll think I'll hold off to see if we get more momentum anywhere else.

I'm going to keep this close and go for Kwhit who was one of the DT voters.

VOTE Kwhit

These were all of the Day 2 posts by Henry. We did get some more commentary from him than on Day 1, perhaps as a by-product of CrimsonFox bringing his name up several times.

The KWhit vote at this point moved the vote to 4-3-3 between CrimsonFox (a candidate that seemed to be losing momentum at the time) PB, and KWhit. This nudges KWhit up a fair amount in my eyes as it definitely helped push him towards a "final two" lynch candidate when it was not remotely a foregone conclusion before this vote.

I'm having a hard time putting him on "saving" CrimsonFox, given that it was their spat last night that led to Henry getting lynched. The only way that makes sense is if Crimson's role was a heck of a lot more important than Henry's and they set the whole thing up last night.

So that leaves PB as the biggest beneficiary at the time of this vote, as far as I can tell.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum IS a villager tho right? He has to be. How do you know EF is a villager? I've lost track.

Lathum no longer has his neutral role. He is on the same side as the resurrector at this point. It is widely assumed that he is a villager now.

But at the time of the vote, he was neutral. So there was no coordination of his vote to try and help/hurt either side more than the other.

EagleFan is now dead as the seer, a known good role and he is listed in green in post #2. I feel pretty safe with this assumption :D

[CrimsonFox]

I'm having a hard time putting him on "saving" CrimsonFox, given that it was their spat last night that led to Henry getting lynched. The only way that makes sense is if Crimson's role was a heck of a lot more important than Henry's and they set the whole thing up last night.


The more ironic thing was that it was henry who posted to "push me to revealing my information" and voted for me. This led directly to his demise.
But I'm thinking it was an attempt to a) as a wolf find out just what info I DID know, b) start the ball rolling even MORE for votes towards me (which it did)

ntn followed henry in this. But at this point I trust ntn a LOT! as he unvoted for me BEFORE any momentum against henry existed and voted for henry beofre it was a runaway.

[Lathum]

Vote Saldana

Not a fan of his plan to pardon someone else when he can just as easily pardon himself. All it does is reveal soeones role or screw us out of another day if he is a wolf.

[J23]

pick someone else to lynch, and I will waste my pardon on them tonight.

This makes 0 sense to me. I really don't doubt your role at this point, but using your role on someone else would be no different than using it on yourself. The only difference is that you have the option to not use your power if you wanted someone else lynched.

vote Saldana

[RendeR]

Vote Saldana

I'm out till the wee early hours of tomorrow morning.

[The Jackal]

Just got caught up, wow. So, I understand the angle people are using to look at me with Henry offering me up to buy me confidence before he died (and btw thank you to everyone who realized that was such a bad lie and didn't just auto vote me before the deadline), and there's nothing much I can do to convince you otherwise until I use my power.

[Schmidty]

[QUOTE=RendeR;2204830
Schmidty - I think he's playing the "stupid" card regarding his choices of people to put on Ice. He's sneaky like that sometimes.[/QUOTE]

Nope. I'm just playing a really bad game this time. My recent decent play went by the wayside this game.

The people voting for me have every right to do so, because I've made my own bed this game.

[Schmidty]

Schmidty, no vote today?

Just noticed this.

I did vote for Autumn.

[hoopsguy]

Updated votes as of post #1082:


(1046) - Dubb votes for Saldana (Saldana 1)
(1047) - Saldana votes for Schmidty (Saldana 1, Schmidty 1)
(1064) - CF votes Saldana (Saldana 2, Schmidty 1)
(1068) - PB votes Saldana (Saldana 3, Schmidty 1)
(1077) - Lathum votes Saldana (Saldana 4, Schmidty 1)
(1078) - J23 votes Saldana (Saldana 5, Schmidty 1)
(1079) - RendeR votes Saldana (Saldana 6, Schmidty 1)

[Schmidty]

Vote saldana

[Lathum]

Have we talked about weekend play at all?

[PurdueBrad]

I'll be on and off tonight, but feel comfortable with my vote.

[path12]

Just got caught up, wow. So, I understand the angle people are using to look at me with Henry offering me up to buy me confidence before he died (and btw thank you to everyone who realized that was such a bad lie and didn't just auto vote me before the deadline), and there's nothing much I can do to convince you otherwise until I use my power.

I'm not convinced you're good, but you have moved up the ladder priority-wise.

[path12]

Have we talked about weekend play at all?

This weekend is not great for me. But whatever folks want to do, I could pop in for a vote.

[dubb93]

As far as weekend play Saturdays are a complete crapshoot for me. I would prefer not to have a Saturday deadline.

[The Jackal]

Might as well come out with this - I'm the soothsayer and used my power on Schmidty's post 1037 "I am not a wolf".

This statement is true.

[The Jackal]

I thought about conserving it but since we're not going to have two people claim seer or anything, might as well clear someone who's not going to be cleared in a different way.

[Lathum]

I thought about conserving it but since we're not going to have two people claim seer or anything, might as well clear someone who's not going to be cleared in a different way.

Unless you are a wolf, in which case your claim means nothing

[Schmidty]

Thank you, sir!!

[The Jackal]

Unless you are a wolf, in which case your claim means nothing

Right. Well, you can lynch me if you want and then know Schmidty is good. I don't really care, my access sucks right now. :)

It's a runaway on saldana at the moment, correct?

[Danny]

[QUOTE=CrimsonFox;2204864]I have no idea. The rules on some of this aren't excatly explicit. Danny?[/QUOTE

The governor is a lynch related action and therefore comes before the slut action in the order of processed actions, so in short a slut does not prevent the governor from using his ability

[CrimsonFox]

Unless you are a wolf, in which case your claim means nothing

Since henry implicated Jackal I really don't think Jackal is guilty of anything, thus believe his statement about Schmidty. Thus I don't think either are wolves.

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Saldana

After what everyone is saying it looks like saldana is a wolf.

[Darth Vilus]

I'm kinda weirded out by DV's voting patterns too. Just out of nowhere for no reason. Not sure.

That's true, my votes have been out there huh? Like i have a mental illness or something. I guess i'm just crazy like that :-)

Let's lynch hoops tomorrow please :-)

[Darth Vilus]

or i guess that would be monday

[dubb93]

I'm not sure what to make of Jackal's reveal. I would be absolutely floored if a villager iced KWhit the day after he was almost lynched and then iced me yesterday after I had been campaigning to get Saldana lynched the previous two days. I guess it comes down to either you could see a villager make those plays and if you could then Jackal + Schmidty must be villagers, if not then maybe we have all of the wolves in our sights and they are trying to figure a way out of it with Jackal's reveal, Schmidty's apathy and Saldana offering to use his power if we lynch someone other than him.

[The Jackal]

I guess I'll just cast it, then

vote saldana

[CrimsonFox]

Anyone else claim to be the schizophrenic?
Out with it now.

[CrimsonFox]

Let's lynch hoops tomorrow please :-)

Tomorrow we have to vote for Saldana again :P

[Lathum]

Since henry implicated Jackal I really don't think Jackal is guilty of anything, thus believe his statement about Schmidty. Thus I don't think either are wolves.

Well that is precisely the reason he would implicate Jackal.

[saldana]

Vote Saldana

Not a fan of his plan to pardon someone else when he can just as easily pardon himself. All it does is reveal soeones role or screw us out of another day if he is a wolf.

my point was that you all want me to prove i am a villager, so my proposal was that if you vote some one that is a known villager, preferably someone that has already revealed and is well trusted (as much as it hurts me to say, CF, for example) and i will pardon them...a wolf would let you vote that person and then laugh all the way home when they dont pardon him.

what exactly have i done...all of the "proof" against me is crap that other people have done to "save me"

i havent done shit

as far as keeping my role a secret, CF, very often, the duke uses his role up very early in the game as a means of adding himself to the circle of trust, but this game doesnt have the traditional duke role where it has to be a villager, so using my power doesnt actually gain me anything

whatever, if you guys want to waste another day with no lynch and no info since it is now a total runaway, go right ahead, we have no seer, no BG, no blessed, and 2 days of no information already...might as well screw the pooch (or in this case, more appropriately, the wolf) one more night so they can have another free night kill

[CrimsonFox]

Well that is precisely the reason he would implicate Jackal.

well true that. just a hunch. But I think the things out of this that ARE true for sure:

Jackal is the soothsayer.
Jackal used his soothsayer ability as he said.
Schmidty is not a wolf.

If statement two is not true. (he was lying about using the soothsayer ability) it doesn't really matter. Because he knows Schmidty is not a wolf anyway.

So either scenario points to clearing Schmidty.

[saldana]

[b]unvote schmidty
vote purduebrad[b]

[saldana]

stupid tags

unvote schmidty
vote purdue brad

[saldana]

Tomorrow we have to vote for Saldana again :P
at this point, i am about ready to just let the train run me over

[saldana]

just for my own edification, why exactly is anyone following Dubb...what has he done that makes his word any better than mine?

[Darth Vilus]

unvote saldana

vote hoops

I dont see the logic in wasting a vote

[Darth Vilus]

i meant lynch

[Lathum]

just for my own edification, why exactly is anyone following Dubb...what has he done that makes his word any better than mine?

For me it has nothing to do with Dubb. I wasn't gonna vote you until your plan to lynch someone else and you would pardon them. You are a very shrewd player and had to know you were going to be lynched soon. I think you saw this as an opportunity to drag it out as long as possible while taking down a trusted villager sp the wolves can continue to role hunt.

[saldana]

For me it has nothing to do with Dubb. I wasn't gonna vote you until your plan to lynch someone else and you would pardon them. You are a very shrewd player and had to know you were going to be lynched soon. I think you saw this as an opportunity to drag it out as long as possible while taking down a trusted villager sp the wolves can continue to role hunt.
so you dont see the perspective of trying to prove myself by saving a villager as valid, or is it that you dont trust me to actually do it.

[saldana]

i love the fact that there was a huge run on me all day and now that i am actually here to try an defend myself, the whole thread emptied out without anyone but lathum saying anything

[Darth Vilus]

i love the fact that there was a huge run on me all day and now that i am actually here to try an defend myself, the whole thread emptied out without anyone but lathum saying anything

that's generall how it goes :D

[Darth Vilus]

*generally*

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, I've been around most of the day but will be out with my kid for most of the time between now and the deadline. But I'll post some quick thoughts.

FWIW, I have not voted for you yet because I do think that there are probably other candidates where as good a case can be built. The most concerning thing I've seen has nothing to do with your posts, but more to do with Henry's D3/D4 votes being "pro Saldana" based on their timing.

I think playing the "we have to lynch him twice if he is a wolf" argument is no more or no less strong than the "why do the wolves dirty work for them" with a lynch if you are a villager governor.

So why did you go with PB for your vote? I think (don't know for sure, but based on trying to suss out EF's posts) that EagleFan scanned him in the first couple of days.

[Lathum]

so you dont see the perspective of trying to prove myself by saving a villager as valid, or is it that you dont trust me to actually do it.

I don't really think you saving a villager proves anything except you feel it will buy you enough trust for the next few days.

Like I said earlier, you are smart enough to read the writting on the wall and know you are probably going down. I know when I am a wolf and am going down my goal is to cause as much chaos as I can in the process. I think it likely you are doing the same.

[ntndeacon]

This seems to be the plan so.

Vote saldana

[saldana]

Saldana, I've been around most of the day but will be out with my kid for most of the time between now and the deadline. But I'll post some quick thoughts.

FWIW, I have not voted for you yet because I do think that there are probably other candidates where as good a case can be built. The most concerning thing I've seen has nothing to do with your posts, but more to do with Henry's D3/D4 votes being "pro Saldana" based on their timing.

I think playing the "we have to lynch him twice if he is a wolf" argument is no more or no less strong than the "why do the wolves dirty work for them" with a lynch if you are a villager governor.

So why did you go with PB for your vote? I think (don't know for sure, but based on trying to suss out EF's posts) that EagleFan scanned him in the first couple of days.

i just went back to one of the day one candidates...does it really matter, every other vote in the game is on me.

I don't really think you saving a villager proves anything except you feel it will buy you enough trust for the next few days.

Like I said earlier, you are smart enough to read the writting on the wall and know you are probably going down. I know when I am a wolf and am going down my goal is to cause as much chaos as I can in the process. I think it likely you are doing the same.

well then wont you all feel stupid that you got railroaded into killing me without a spec of evidence and i dont pardon myself. im sure dubb will start screaming that this means i am a wolf, but at this point, the most useful thing i can do for the village is actually die so you dont waste all day monday too.

[saldana]

if anyone needs me, i'll be playing WoW

[CrimsonFox]

I don't believe anything saldana has said today as it's all more misdirectionspeak. It is obvious that many that have voted for him have done so withh nothing to do with dubb. Saldana has been up with a number of votes on previous days for various reasons, but none of them have been addressed by him on prevoious days, but rather ignored in a sort of "I hope this goes away" feel and in many cases it did. It is only now with a run on him that he is desperately trying to throw people other bones and misdirect more and actually answer with reasonings that further do not make any sense.

Nope I am not changing my mind on this one.

[CrimsonFox]

if anyone needs me, i'll be playing WoW

I will be too. See you there! The good thing for you is that Cataclysm is introducing Worgen! :D

[KWhit]

I have been suspicious of saldana since about Day 2.

I'm fine with going after him today (and I guess the next day too).

VOTE SALDANA

[saldana]

I will be too. See you there! The good thing for you is that Cataclysm is introducing Worgen! :D

for you too if you are on a pvp server playing horde...thats pretty much the only shot you have of actually killing a wolf...at least today anyway

[path12]

for you too if you are on a pvp server playing horde...thats pretty much the only shot you have of actually killing a wolf...at least today anyway

Interesting comment. I was looking for an alternative, but with that I'm fine with going with the gang.

VOTE SALDANA

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, going over votes it doesn't look like I'm on the board yet. Not that it matters a whole heck of a lot today.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE SALDANA

[Danny]

5 minutes to deadline

[KWhit]

That's true, my votes have been out there huh? Like i have a mental illness or something. I guess i'm just crazy like that :-)

Let's lynch hoops tomorrow please :-)

Innnnnnnterrresting.....

[Danny]

It is decided that Saldana will be lynched. Saldana was the governor and a villager.

[Danny]

Everyone wakes up and finds that no one has been killed over the night.

[KWhit]

say what?

[Danny]

Day/Night 6 will happen Monday at 9pm eastern.

[CrimsonFox]

I slutted j23 last night. I will be voting for him next.

If there are only 2 werewolves, then that is why no one was killed because slut prevents werewolves kills (and gives wolves stds) so I stopped j23 from killing.

If there are 3 werewolves, then both were somehow prevented. j23 as a wolf was prevented by me the slut. And something else. Darth Vilis, whom did you schizo last night?

The only other thing I can think of, barring that, is if Lathum WAS the third werewolf and was unwolfed when he was brought back by the resurrector. In which case, Checkmate.

[saldana]

i enjoy the fact that you all drilled me and not one person even says Oops

whatever

[Lathum]

I slutted j23 last night. I will be voting for him next.

If there are only 2 werewolves, then that is why no one was killed because slut prevents werewolves kills (and gives wolves stds) so I stopped j23 from killing.

If there are 3 werewolves, then both were somehow prevented. j23 as a wolf was prevented by me the slut. And something else. Darth Vilis, whom did you schizo last night?

The only other thing I can think of, barring that, is if Lathum WAS the third werewolf and was unwolfed when he was brought back by the resurrector. In which case, Checkmate.

Most wolves don't night kill other wolves

[dubb93]

Well now all we can do is wait around for the Schizo to see if he made a BG protect last night. If that is a no then the obvious move here is to string up J23.

[hoopsguy]

It is decided that Saldana will be lynched. Saldana was the governor and a villager.

I 100% understand why you did not use your power (frustrating not having villagers believe in you) but you probably should have, in the hope that new info emerges that would help us make a better call the following day.

Will discuss more in the postgame, when there is a little more time separating us all from the results of today.

[dubb93]

i enjoy the fact that you all drilled me and not one person even says Oops

whatever

I was wrong Sal, not the first time, won't be the last. You won't get an apology out of me unless I get one from you for every time you've been wrong about me and I'm guessing that that isn't going to happen. ;)

[dubb93]

Most wolves don't night kill other wolves

No but a certain wolf has been known on occasion to duke the lynch vote to another wolf. Wonder if the GM would have any idea who that could be?

[KWhit]

i enjoy the fact that you all drilled me and not one person even says Oops

whatever

Yeah, sorry dude.

So:

Oops.

[Darth Vilus]

sorry guys, i effed up. i totally forgot to do my night action this morning. my bad

[Danny]

No but a certain wolf has been known on occasion to duke the lynch vote to another wolf. Wonder if the GM would have any idea who that could be?

:D

[The Jackal]

the lack of a kill is bizarre

[RendeR]

Sorry Sal.

[The Jackal]

I suppose the schizo with a BG hit is the best explanation

[KWhit]

I suppose the schizo with a BG hit is the best explanation

sorry guys, i effed up. i totally forgot to do my night action this morning. my bad

Guess not.

[dubb93]

Vote J23

If there was no BG block then I think a slutting is the only explanation that makes sense for a non kill.

[hoopsguy]

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

[dubb93]

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

What can he say? As far as I can tell we have him dead to rights here. The only role with a potential BG power didn't submit a night action and there was no night kill so if it wasn't the BG it had to be something. Crimson says he slutted up J23 so that has to be the reason. The only other possible reason would be if the wolves didn't get a kill in for one reason or the other but I just don't buy that at this point in the game.

[KWhit]

That's true, my votes have been out there huh? Like i have a mental illness or something. I guess i'm just crazy like that :-)

Let's lynch hoops tomorrow please :-)

I'm still waiting to hear if J23 has anything interesting to say about the nights events, but there don't seem to be many roles remaining (that are not spoken for) that could create confusion here.

I'm very surprised that you failed to even mention this post of DV's.

In fact, I'm surprised by a few things with you this game.

1) As Lathum mentioned a few days ago, I'm surprised you're still alive. Sorry, but it's true.

2) You haven't seemed to be as engaged this game. You are usually a much more involved, helpful villager (even when you're a wolf). I'm suspicious of this. I wonder if it's a ploy to stay out of the limelight and avoid controversy and avoid being lynched.

Of course, you may just be uber-busy, which is fine. But the combination of these 2 items as well as DV's statement have you at the very top of my suspicion list. Right there with J23.

[hoopsguy]

1) I don't really have all that much control over being alive or not alive - as much as I would like to believe otherwise, I'm just one vote (well, technically a smidge more than that this game) for the lynch and have zero say-so in the decisions of the wolves.

2) I felt like I was pretty engaged the first few days, but Thu/Fri were challenging days at the office for me. I have tried to be active in the thread; there is no ploy to stay out of the limelight.

As far as Darth's statement, he has not said anything yet other than intimating his role and suggesting that he wants me lynched.

I was waiting for him to actually come out and say that he scanned me as a wolf before I start making arguments about statistics with seer vs fake-seer within his role. I'm sure it is not witness, as I don't have a power that enables any kind of night action.

If you think I'm the best candidate for a lynch vote, then you should vote for me. I'm positive that I'm not the best candidate and I'm curious why anyone (both you and Jackal so far) would attempt to turn focus elsewhere than J23 being slutted on a night where the wolves got no kill.

[J23]

No idea why there wasn't a kill, but I'm not about to complain.

I didn't receive a message about being slutted, so I'm really not sure where to start on all this.

[KWhit]

1) I don't really have all that much control over being alive or not alive - as much as I would like to believe otherwise, I'm just one vote (well, technically a smidge more than that this game) for the lynch and have zero say-so in the decisions of the wolves.

2) I felt like I was pretty engaged the first few days, but Thu/Fri were challenging days at the office for me. I have tried to be active in the thread; there is no ploy to stay out of the limelight.

As far as Darth's statement, he has not said anything yet other than intimating his role and suggesting that he wants me lynched.

I was waiting for him to actually come out and say that he scanned me as a wolf before I start making arguments about statistics with seer vs fake-seer within his role. I'm sure it is not witness, as I don't have a power that enables any kind of night action.

If you think I'm the best candidate for a lynch vote, then you should vote for me. I'm positive that I'm not the best candidate and I'm curious why anyone (both you and Jackal so far) would attempt to turn focus elsewhere than J23 being slutted on a night where the wolves got no kill.

That sounds suspiciously like a slightly veiled statement suggesting I am trying to protect J23. I assure you that couldn't be further from the truth, and I'm surprised you went there. You know, a person can suspect more than one person at a time, right? :)

If I could, I'd vote for you both on Monday, but alas, I cannot. So I'll go after J23 first, and then (if nothing changes) I'll focus on you.

I just wanted to point out the fact that you didn't respond at all to a clear accusation. That is odd to me. And as I pointed out earlier, there are a number of other things that I find "off" about you this game.

[PurdueBrad]

My vote will either be J23, which makes sense, or Hoopsguy.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, if you are a villager and think I am a wolf then why wouldn't I have used my power (Distractor) to bury you back on Day 2? If I moved my vote from PB I wouldn't have even needed to distract, but I would have added one vote and negated the person behind me.

I did not move it because at that time I thought PB was the more likely wolf, but I wasn't so sure that it made sense to try and manipulate the results with anything more than the weight of my single vote. The vote that followed me that day was on CrimsonFox, who was a non-contender at the end.

Assuming you + PB are villagers, then the wolves had to be frustrated with a tie on that day.

If you take a look at the votes every day, I've tried my best to actually downplay that ability rather than put votes in spots where I'm eliminating key votes. I think that Day 2 was the last time that it was really up in the air at the end. Nevertheless, I've still tried to put my votes in well before the deadline each day and be around near the end to move it if there was some kind of late-breaking logic dictating a shift.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, with J23 not offering up anything and with a lynch mob seemingly moving after me, I think it is about time for me to

VOTE J23

[KWhit]

KWhit, if you are a villager and think I am a wolf then why wouldn't I have used my power (Distractor) to bury you back on Day 2? If I moved my vote from PB I wouldn't have even needed to distract, but I would have added one vote and negated the person behind me.

Well, I think that we're both likely villagers (not that I know that about PB, that's just my gut feel). So I'm not sure it mattered too much to a wolf which one of us bought it. Also remember that the run on me was fast and happened pretty late. I don't know that a wolf would want to be a deciding vote in my demise when it came out that I was a villager.

I did not move it because at that time I thought PB was the more likely wolf, but I wasn't so sure that it made sense to try and manipulate the results with anything more than the weight of my single vote. The vote that followed me that day was on CrimsonFox, who was a non-contender at the end.

Assuming you + PB are villagers, then the wolves had to be frustrated with a tie on that day.

No doubt. But we already know that one wolf was voting for me (henry) and we may have had more since we don't know which side Render, Schmidty, or PurdueBrad are on. It may be that the wolves didn't want to bunch up their votes on me - especially when it was shown I was a villager. And it still looked like I was going to be lynched. You knew that your role wasn't going to make it be a tie. I assumed that the ballot box stuffer would be careful with his vote to ensure it wouldn't result in a tie either. I was pretty certain I was toast.

If you take a look at the votes every day, I've tried my best to actually downplay that ability rather than put votes in spots where I'm eliminating key votes. I think that Day 2 was the last time that it was really up in the air at the end. Nevertheless, I've still tried to put my votes in well before the deadline each day and be around near the end to move it if there was some kind of late-breaking logic dictating a shift.

Yeah, I mean, I imagine that a wolf would play the role pretty conservatively too. Anyone who even just uses their single vote that results in the lynch of a villager is going to get some heat (I'm a case in point, since that almost led to me getting lynched on day 2). But if someone uses their role to manipulate the vote to nullify someone else's vote and it results in the lynch of a villager, they are probably going to get more attention than they really want.

[KWhit]

Oh, and Hoops...

I'm certainly not sold on voting for you after we string up J23, but I wanted to get you talking a little bit, because I have honestly felt that you haven't been as active/engaged this time as usual.

I'm actually glad that you're still around. I know that it must be frustrating as hell to be lynched or nightkilled early most games, so I'm glad that hasn't happened yet this game.

But, I have my doubts as to your innocence, but it's certainly nothing concrete yet.

[J23]

Anyway, with J23 not offering up anything and with a lynch mob seemingly moving after me, I think it is about time for me to

VOTE J23

Just what am I supposed to offer up? I have as little information as everyone else at this point.

[hoopsguy]

J23, either you are a wolf or a victim of some tough circumstances. Assuming the latter, what do you think the right move is today?

[hoopsguy]

KWhit, I've got mixed feelings on being around for the second week this game. Ordinarily, I would be delighted as it doesn't happen all that often for me. But the end of last week was pretty challenging on the work front and my home life is going to make access a bear for me if I last too long into next week. So this would have been a game where I probably would have been just fine with being a Night 2 kill or something like that, all things considered.

I think you'll find that I'm about as talkative as they come in terms of WW, this game or any other. Outside of Day 1 I haven't found myself on the defensive in the vote quite as much as I frequently do, which may have a little something to do with the notion that I'm not talking as much. But I think overall I've been pretty close to my normal post count ... (shrug) I guess something like that is kind of in the eye of the beholder.

[The Jackal]

Guess not.

heh, definitely forgot DV was the schizo and must have been very tired when i wrote that post :)

that means it's hard to look elsewhere than J23, but i'm listening

[PurdueBrad]

Oops, thought I had already done this.

vote J23

I'll be on and off today as we've got the day off.

[KWhit]

I'll go ahead and do this:

J23

[KWhit]

Oops.

VOTE J23

[path12]

He's been on my radar for awhile.

VOTE J23

[CrimsonFox]

VOTE J23

And we're back...

[CrimsonFox]

i enjoy the fact that you all drilled me and not one person even says Oops

whatever


dude, we're sorry but you acted guilty as hell. :) Pardon yourself already and let's finish this.

[ntndeacon]

Like y'all said. The lack of night kill is pretty damning.
Vote J23

[RendeR]

Vote J23


Everyone else is....

[CrimsonFox]

I suppose the schizo with a BG hit is the best explanation


BG just means that the BG gets eaten instead of the wolf. In which case there would have been a wolf victim. I think the Schizo becoming slut would be the only thing a schizo could do to keep a wolf from killing.

[CrimsonFox]

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

[dubb93]

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

Hoops has a IMO(sorry Hoops) often overstated ability to catch wolves and as a result he is often unfairly killed early, most of the time d1 by the wolves in games. As a result when he is alive on d2 he is often immediately lynched by the village.

Note the "Hoops is alive, he must be a wolf," comments people have already thrown out this game.

[CrimsonFox]

BG just means that the BG gets eaten instead of the wolf. In which case there would have been a wolf victim. I think the Schizo becoming slut would be the only thing a schizo could do to keep a wolf from killing.

Oh I see now. Weak bodyguard gets killed, but regular BG doesn't get killed.

So Slut or bodyguard would work, that's 2/6 of the time he prevents that wolf from killing.

[CrimsonFox]

Hoops has a IMO(sorry Hoops) often overstated ability to catch wolves and as a result he is often unfairly killed early, most of the time d1 by the wolves in games. As a result when he is alive on d2 he is often immediately lynched by the village.

Note the "Hoops is alive, he must be a wolf," comments people have already thrown out this game.

yup noted ;)

[Lathum]

There seems to be this big injoke about hoopsguy?

Is he somehow always a wolf? is he a good liar? Does he play tons of WW? I've pretty much treated all the accusations against hoops as "Let's get him otherwise he'll screw us again like he always does" jokes.

The think you need to keep in mind is many of us have been playing WW together for almost 5 years. There are a ton of inside jokes, etc..

[Lathum]

Vote The Jackal

Something just hasn't seemed quiet right about him this game.

[Darth Vilus]

Eh, if u guys want to kill j23 then that's fine. I really think we're gonna get our asses handed to us by the wolves.

VOTE J23

He doesn't seem right with me either, or else i would've voted Hoops again

And Hoops,this is for u.

Hoops, you're a wolf. I scanned you. Happy now?

[hoopsguy]

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, is there an equal chance of Darth ending up with any of the different roles on any given night? Or does his role shuffle through the different roles in some pre-set order?

[CrimsonFox]

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.

I thought it was random like a die roll myself. He cooses one person to target and Danny rolls a d6 and that's the role done to that person.

[hoopsguy]

Darth, to expand on what I said earlier - if you scanned someone, they should probably die period. Because if you scanned them as a villager they could be a wolf with a bad scan. Just like I'm a villager with a bad scan.

That pretty much sucks for me, but it is the nature of your role. The highest value you would have is getting a witness on someone with a night action because there is no inverted case with that. Similarly, all of your bodyguard actions are good for the person you are protecting, if not good for you. But for the night you are a seer, the results are dubious across the board.

I accept that I'm going to get strung up as a result, but it kind of sucks that I'm the figurative egg that is going to be broken to create this omelet. Which is part of the reason that I wasn't terribly chatty on this topic right away when you (Darth) weren't around - because you seemed determined to see me lynched without the remotest acknowledgment that you aren't a Seer, but you are a Schizo.

If we get a wolf today and blow the lynch on me tomorrow, so be it. We should probably still be in a reasonable place to win this game with the remaining COT. But I would rather that we get a lynch today and have something happen tonight that leads to an actual wolf rather than lynching me.

[CrimsonFox]

Darth, that is great but you do understand that your role gives you both a real seer and a false seer, right?

You are the only type seer we have left (I'm assuming this is the case since no one has challenged your role) but you are more likely to hang a villager than a wolf with that role. That is both the math of the role (in a game with more villagers than wolves, and what I assume is an equally likely chance of getting true/false seer) and the actuality of your results.

If you had said that you had Witnessed me then I would call you a liar because I have no night actions.


ugh false seer. crap forgot about that. So his seer ability is pretty worthless because even HE doesn't know if who he sees is a wolf.

hoops, what is your role?

[Danny]

Danny, is there an equal chance of Darth ending up with any of the different roles on any given night? Or does his role shuffle through the different roles in some pre-set order?

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.

[The Jackal]

honestly forgot there was gameplay today because the holiday feels like the weekend! but i also thought i'd voted and i haven't yet, have i

vote j23

[The Jackal]

Vote The Jackal

Something just hasn't seemed quiet right about him this game.

after the game you'll understand that it honestly was me not being around as much as normal because of my computer crapping out 2 days before the game started :)

but if there's any questions you have for me, please ask, i am a villager and would like to convince you i'm not the way to go

[CrimsonFox]

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.


Wow that's really neat and not as worthless as I thought. Still it will complicate things for people we are on the fence about.

[dubb93]

Wow that's really neat and not as worthless as I thought. Still it will complicate things for people we are on the fence about.

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.

So if Darth got the seer role then Hoops is a wolf. If Darth got the false seer then Hoops is a villager.

If you want to draw conclusions from that then go ahead. I will take it for it is, a complete unknown.

[hoopsguy]

ugh false seer. crap forgot about that. So his seer ability is pretty worthless because even HE doesn't know if who he sees is a wolf.

hoops, what is your role?

Distractor - the person following me on a vote gets their vote nullified. I mentioned it over the weekend when talking with KWhit about his suspicions. I told him that if I was a wolf that I would have wanted badly to avoid a tie on Day 2. I further indicated that non-action down the stretch should at least suggest to him (assuming he is not a wolf) that my nullifying a vote on you instead of one of the lead candidates should at the very least suggest that I was not being malicious with my power.

[The Jackal]

And I completed missed what DV said, way to hide it at the end of a post! The problem of the seer vs false seer makes a lynch decision on hoops not automatic, though.

[Lathum]

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.
.

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Eh, sounds nearly completely worthless to me. So we know that Darth Scanned Hoops.

We don't know which role Darth got. Its 50/50 that he either got the seer or false seer role.

We do know the result showed Hoops as a wolf.

So if Darth got the seer role then Hoops is a wolf. If Darth got the false seer then Hoops is a villager.

If you want to draw conclusions from that then go ahead. I will take it for it is, a complete unknown.


Well, I'm still alive so I must be a wolf :banghead:

Seriously, the power is useful with the Witness role. Or the bodyguard role. Or even the weak bodyguard role, in that it stops the wolves from killing who they want to kill.

I would argue that the math suggests that me scanning as a wolf is more likely to indicate that I'm a villager than I'm a wolf, but I know that comes off sounding like BS when people want to catch wolves. Every person should do their own math, react to my posts, and draw their own conclusions. I'll save my heated arguments for a time where I'm actually on the block.

I'll ask Darth to not target me again, as I'm likely as safe as a kitten for at least the next day or two while the wolves try to build their case against me. Better to spend the power on people who may actually be the night kill in hopes that the bodyguard power actually comes up big.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

I'm a math guy, but you probably would not trust my stats.

But, lets use some hypothetical numbers.

Assuming 11 players, 8 villagers and 3 wolves.

50% seer, marking a random player, will get a wolf 30% of the time (3 out of 10, excluding him).

50% false seer, making a random player, will falsely condemn a villager 70% of the time (7 out of 10, excluding him). Falsely clear a wolf 30% of the time.

15% = correctly getting wolf
35% = correctly clearing villager
15% = incorrect clearing a wolf
35% = hosing a villager by flagging him as a wolf

I'm pretty sure that is the correct math, but will welcome the observations of others. Feel free to use the correct number of players/wolves if you are privy to that info ...

[The Jackal]

going out for drinks with a friend, back after the results

[dubb93]

OK, so someone who is a math guy correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't that put it at 75% Hoops is a wolf?

Without doing the math(I hate math) my gut would say that 75% is a huge stretch.

[CrimsonFox]

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch :)

[PurdueBrad]

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch :)

Hehe, sorry!

[Schmidty]

Vote J23

[dubb93]

yeah sounds like whoever invented schizo should get a facepunch :)

I think the Schizo is extremely useful as a bodyguard mechanic, just the "seer" scans unfortunately are no better than chance.

[RendeR]

Bleh

[RendeR]

Dead.....Line?

[Danny]

Yes deadline

[Danny]

J23 is the lynch choice. He was the Ballot-Box Stuffer and a wolf!

CrimsonFox is night killed. He was the slut and a villager

[KWhit]

YAY!

[RendeR]

2 down 2 to go? or do we think there is only 1 more wolf?

[dubb93]

2 down 2 to go? or do we think there is only 1 more wolf?

I would be shocked if there is only 1 left.

[Lathum]

Looking back through the votes Dubb stands out to me as having done a really good job of skimming under the radar. He's voted Saldana everyday except the day he was iced and today when it was obvious J23 was going down. Plus the fact he got in early on J23 makes me wonder...

[Lathum]

Without doing the math(I hate math) my gut would say that 75% is a huge stretch.

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

[PurdueBrad]

Nicely done and Crimson Fox, nice first game with us. Well played.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum, that is the same math I'm considering. Tomorrow should be interesting and I'll be around a lot more.

[KWhit]

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

I don't think that's right though. Because DV said that Hoops came up wolf in his scan, right? So we can take out this result from your list above: DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager.

So we really have 2 possibilities:
DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf - means Hoops is a villager

So I think we're at a 50/50 chance of him being a wolf. But even before DV mentioned that he scanned him, I was leery of Hoops, so I'm willing to take a 50/50 shot and will likely be voting for Hoops tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Well, the odds would be 50/50 if we had an equal number of villagers and wolves. But we don't, or else the game would be over.

Like I said before, I understand the desire to take the easy out and pluck a wolf that way. But I would suggest that we have some new info available now that we've uncovered the second wolf - J23. Taking a look at his votes, in conjunction with Henry's, I'm guessing that we can start to make some sense of the first five or so days when we were striking out on the wolves.

That has to be a better plan of attack than the 0% option that it seems like people want to take tomorrow.

[Darth Vilus]

either way, whatever u guys say im voting hoops. i thought he was one before i even scanned him, which is why i scanned him.

and great job today btw

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 - I'm in a 5-4 runoff with DaddyTorgo. Henry is on DT, J23 does not put in his double vote. I had posted that I was going to move my vote, but I was unable to do so as the PC I was working on was having virus issues. If J23 and I are wolves together then I would have expected some support from him. But there was none at all.

Day 3 - there is a tie vote between KWhit and PurdueBrad. J23 has his double vote on KWhit and I have my vote on PB with the negated vote behind me on CrimsonFox. If J23 and I were wolves together would we have wanted to create a tie? Not likely.

I'll do a more detailed vote/post analysis tomorrow. But those are two instances this game where the idea of me as a wolf just doesn't make much sense. I would hope that there are more out there, but neither of our wolves are exactly prolific posters. I'm not expecting to find a ton of post content to help with this search. It will likely come down to voting records.

[hoopsguy]

either way, whatever u guys say im voting hoops. i thought he was one before i even scanned him, which is why i scanned him.

and great job today btw

I'm glad that you are applying a cool head and logic to this problem, DV.

[Darth Vilus]

Thanks, I appreciate that :D :D :D

[hoopsguy]

Darth, I'm not deliberately trying to pump you for information that you don't want to give but since you are bound and determined to lynch me I think I'm entitled to some back-and-forth ...

Have you scanned anyone as villager? Have you run witness on anyone yet? Or has every other day out of the six been some kind of bodyguard action?

It would seem that you might have options to provide support for other villagers based on your actions, even if it is only to suggest that someone was inactive for an evening.

I'm not trying to railroad you here; no one has challenged your claim of being the Schizo so I'm assuming you are. But I'm baffled by the way you are playing it, even if you weren't coming at me with bogus intel.

[dubb93]

I know I am probably wrong and this is all predicated on DV being a villager but....

So there are only 3 possibilities, 2 of them have hoops being a wolf.

DV is real seer,which means Hoops is a wolf
DV is a fake seer, Hoops comes up wolf
DV is fake seer, hoops comes up villager

in 2 of those scenarios, of 66% Hoops is a wolf.

I'm not defending Hoops b/c for all I know he could be a wolf, I just have bigger suspects at this point, like Jackal/Schmidty who would fit right in with my 2 wolves left at this point logic, but even you have to realize that your third one here is out the window since he scanned as a wolf to DV. That means that best case is 50/50 that he is a wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

J23 is the lynch choice. He was the Ballot-Box Stuffer and a wolf!

CrimsonFox is night killed. He was the slut and a villager


My work here is done, literally! :) Now bring it home, guys!

[CrimsonFox]

Nicely done and Crimson Fox, nice first game with us. Well played.

Thanks PB! :) It sure is a gutwrenching game. Go get that last wolf now! :)

[hoopsguy]

Good game, Crimson. You came up very big in both of the wolves we've landed.

[PurdueBrad]

Finally caught up.

I fully undersand the risks I take given my schedule and don' faul anyone for voting for me. However, it also doesn' make me a wolf.

My trust list:

Lathum / Path - Horrible move by path if he was wolf.
Autumn - no counter reveal and known good role.
RealDeal - No reason to reveal even though could be wolf and EagleFan's theory is very good
EagleFan - I like his though process and willingness to reconsider
PurdueBrad / Kwhit - my gut feel is both are good. The tie was good fortunate for us.

Other players:
Saldana - Definitely has some type of role and worth savings for a couple of days.

Dubb - reveal as whiny bitch. Doesn't prove anything.

Hoops - He plays the same way as wolf or villager so I can't tell yet.

Therefore, based on making a vote that matters, I'm going to go with

VOTE RENDER

This is a post by Henry on page 14. I put the known good players in bolded green and assumed good (your's truly since I know what I am) in a different color green. I then put the remaining unknowns (sorry KWhit, you still fall here for me although I'm inclined to think you're good) in orange. So, I guess I'm wondering is what are the odds that Henry doesn't mention any wolves what-so-ever in this post about players. Odds are, a wolf would try to throw a touch of info or read on a fellow wolf in a post like this. I could very well be wrong, but I think, for me, this is one place to start.

In addition, KWhit, I get Lathum's math and I think he is correct. The way the seer/fake seer dynamic should work is:

DV scans Hoops and
A- DV is real seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf
B- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is villager
C- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf

I am inclined to say that this is a 2/3's or 66% shot.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum and Path should be in the darker green above, that's my bad.

[PurdueBrad]

I'll throw an early vote out there but this is subject to change, particularly if I get enough time to do some full game vote analysis of the other 7 uncleared players (beyond Hoops and I, and then Lathum and Path).

vote Hoopsguy

[KWhit]

In addition, KWhit, I get Lathum's math and I think he is correct. The way the seer/fake seer dynamic should work is:

DV scans Hoops and
A- DV is real seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf
B- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is villager
C- DV is fake seer at the time, scan says wolf, Hoops is wolf

I am inclined to say that this is a 2/3's or 66% shot.

I don't know how you can say that. That's just incorrect.

Random die roll for which role, so there is an equal chance of getting each role on any given night. Seer scans work where wolf shows up wolf and villager shows up villager. False seer scans work where wolf shows up villager and villager shows up wolf.

So your C option is impossible based on Danny's post above. I'm fine with lynching Hoopsguy, but I don't want us to do it using inaccurate information. Personally, I think DV's scan is completely useless. It's entirely based upon whether he is being the seer or the fake seer. There is no third option.

[KWhit]

Lathum and Path should be in the darker green above, that's my bad.

Why do you say Lathum and Path are Known good. We all assume they are, but it's never been proven, correct (it's possible I missed something).

It would be a bold move by Path to res Lathum and reveal if he was a wolf, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, right?

[PurdueBrad]

Why do you say Lathum and Path are Known good. We all assume they are, but it's never been proven, correct (it's possible I missed something).

It would be a bold move by Path to res Lathum and reveal if he was a wolf, but it's not out of the realm of possibility, right?

Looking at EF's last post in which he put them in his undoubted trust list. I'll dig up the post.

As for the math above, you are correct, I didn't see Danny's rules and assumed it was random. So that does take it down to 50/50.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't have time to dig up the exact post but here is a copy-paste of me quoting it earlier. I also thought it was interesting that he listed Lathum and Path as trusted before he listed his own name:

Originally Posted by EagleFan http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/styles/yellow/buttons//viewpost.gif (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?p=2203248#post2203248)
Thinking out loud now....

We have:

Most Trusted: Lathum, path12, EagleFan (if I can't trust myself, who can I trust)

Close to Most Trusted (barring counter reveal): Autumn

Leaning towards good: KWhit, CrimsonFox, PurdueBrad

Reveals that mean nothing yet (could be either side): dubb93, RealDeal


Uncertain: The rest

[hoopsguy]

PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth :)

Seriously, you are including an option in your math that cannot be realized. The "fake seer, hoops is a wolf" is not an option as I would have scanned villager in that case. Since he is saying I scanned wolf there are only two options.

You can argue that those options are weighted equally - each has an equal 1/6 chance of coming to Darth Vilus. So that would be 50/50.

Or you can argue that there although there is a 50/50 shot of DV getting seer or fake seer as a night action, the chances of scanning a wolf are not equal in a game with more villagers than wolves.

Either way, the odds are certainly not above 50%. I'll argue this one as a math question until I'm blue in the face in the postgame thread if people want to return to the topic when I'm no longer considered an interested party.

[hoopsguy]

As far as the EF scan, I haven't been able to figure out who he scanned because he has too many people trusted for the number of scans he was allowed. He was obviously mixing in some guesses along with his actual scans to try and throw off the wolves. I still think he scanned PB, but outside of that I'm not at all sure. I know KWhit has wanted to paint this in a way that suggests he has been scanned, but I'm less convinced of that than I was with PB.

I'll be working at a client today where I'm not sure what kind of Internet access I'll have. I'll be on as much as possible, but that number may be zero percent until I get home tonight.

[KWhit]

As far as the EF scan, I haven't been able to figure out who he scanned because he has too many people trusted for the number of scans he was allowed. He was obviously mixing in some guesses along with his actual scans to try and throw off the wolves. I still think he scanned PB, but outside of that I'm not at all sure. I know KWhit has wanted to paint this in a way that suggests he has been scanned, but I'm less convinced of that than I was with PB.

I'll be working at a client today where I'm not sure what kind of Internet access I'll have. I'll be on as much as possible, but that number may be zero percent until I get home tonight.

As I pointed out before, the reason I suspect I was scanned is a combination of these things:

EF voted for me on Day 2. He did it fairly early (putting only the 2nd vote on me). Presumably, he suspected me of being a wolf. Else, why would he vote for me?

The very next day, he puts me on his trusted list. Now, why would he have all of a sudden had such a drastic change of heart about me.

It makes sense to me that he scanned me.

And I would be a logical choice for a scan from him since he felt I had a good chance of being a wolf (since he voted for me).

True, he had me in the third category of trust, but I think if he would have put me any higher, it would have been an obvious sign that he was the seer - no one could have enough info on me at that point to think I was trusted. In fact, just the fact that PB and I were on the list at all may have been enough to make the wolves think he was the seer.

Personally, I think PB and I were both scanned.

[PurdueBrad]

PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth :)

I teach English (jerk!).

[KWhit]

This thread is dead.

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[Lathum]

vote the jackal

I would at least like to keep it close

[path12]

Personally, I think PB and I were both scanned.

I don't think so just because he's got Lathum and I on his top line with him. He only got two scans in before dying, right?

On another topic, I do want to engage DV a little more on his role, especially before putting a vote down on hoops.

Specifically, a recap of his night actions and reasonings for choosing the folks he has.

[KWhit]

I don't think so just because he's got Lathum and I on his top line with him. He only got two scans in before dying, right?

Maybe, but I think he had you guys on the top line because it was the group's consensus at that point in time that you two guys were the most trusted. It would have been weird and obvious that he was the seer if he had a trust list without you two guys at the top.

Although it's entirely possible that he did scan you or Lathum. I just think that it's plausible that he did not scan either of you.

[The Jackal]

I would suggest that anyone voting for hoops consider his play apart from the "seer scan", including you DV. I might end up going that way today, but let's not base everything on that.

Hoops, who would you have near the top of your suspect list? A group of a few people is fine.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm going to try to compile a vote breakdown in the next forty minutes, otherwise I'll do it after school, of who all the remaining people voted for.

As for the ongoing debate about scans, it is my *belief* that Path was likely EF's day 1 scan, which is how he knew he could clear Lathum.

[CrimsonFox]

And now a musical interlude:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uoAJw9VFCk

[dubb93]

Someone present a case against Hoopsguy that leaves out the DV scan, b/c I refuse to consider that as evidence since as far as I'm concerned no matter who he scans there is a 50/50 shot he shows them as a wolf depending on if he rolls the real seer or the false seer and then their true roll. If no one can present a good case without that then I will be voting for Schmidty or Jackal.

[PurdueBrad]

These are days 1-4 (5 was the Saldana vote and 6 the J23, both of which went runaway I believe.


Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry<o></o>

Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry<o></o>

Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy<o></o>

RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana<o></o>

Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit<o></o>

KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry<o></o>

Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox<o></o>

Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote<o></o>

Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote<o></o>

Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry<o>
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry
</o>

[PurdueBrad]

The no votes above make analysis tough, especially when 6 of 11 have at least 1 no vote. I'll try to break this down some more as the afternoon goes on.

[hoopsguy]

My work schedule has me at a ton of different clients today, with heavy supervision. I'm not getting time to spend in the thread.

I would suggest that you guys carry on with the expectation that I'll have maybe 15-45 minutes this afternoon over the last two hours before the deadline. Will depend on traffic out of Chicago to my home and the mood of my kid when I get home.

[dubb93]

The no votes above make analysis tough, especially when 6 of 11 have at least 1 no vote. I'll try to break this down some more as the afternoon goes on.

My D4 no vote and KWhit's D3 no vote are due to Schmidty icing us. Schmidty admitted to this after we placed the mobster role on him due to process of elimination.

[PurdueBrad]

Voting record-wise, ntn and Path have the best records. As I continue to work with the assumption that Path is good, then he's playing a very solid game. ntn has done well for having been fairly quiet. It is easier for a wolf to compile a good voting record, which is something to remember.

[dubb93]

As I continue to work with the assumption that Path is good

Again if Path is bad then Lathum has to be bad. If Lathum is bad then Path has to bad. Those are absolutes. It is a stretch to think both of them are bad at this point I would say but if they both continue to hang around it is something that may need to be considered going forward.

[PurdueBrad]

Here is the same chart, with what I know to be true (and obviously we're all looking at the records through what are roles are):


Path: Darth Vilus, J23, RendeR, henry<o></o>

Hoopsguy: Path, PurdueBrad, RendeR, henry<o></o>

Darth Vilus: Crimson Fox, J23, Real Deal, Hoopsguy<o></o>

RendeR: Hoopsguy, KWhit, no vote, Saldana<o></o>

Jackal: PurdueBrad, No Vote, Real Deal, KWhit<o></o>

KWhit: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, no vote, henry<o></o>

Lathum: DaddyTorgo, PurdueBrad, PurdueBrad, CrimsonFox<o></o>

Schmidty: Dubb, KWhit, Autumn, no vote<o></o>

Dubb: No Vote, Saldana, Saldana, no vote<o></o>

Ntn: No Vote, EagleFan, henry, henry<o>
PurdueBrad: Hoops, KWhit, RealDeal, henry
</o>
Lathum's record is brutal which leads me to believe that he's extra good. ;)