WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection - EVIL WINS!

[cougarfreak]

And just for those wondering, I purposely tried to upset some people day 1 by my vote switching in hope I would get some votes. As a lover I needed to live until the end of the game and the only way I was going to do that was to have some heat on me the whole game.

I'm confused, how does that help you survive?

[Darth Vilus]

It's late now but i wouldve scanned Danny. I think he's trying to get me scanned as good and then have me infected

[mauchow]

I'm confused, how does that help you survive?

Danny gets night killed a lot?

[Danny]

I'm confused, how does that help you survive?

You don't play that often, but I'd say my average length in games before being night killed is about 2 days.

[Darth Vilus]

How often is Danny so adamant about a player on day 2 with nothing to go on?

[bhlloy]

A quiet Danny gets killed by the wolves role hunting. A not so quiet Danny with no votes gets killed by the wolves because. But they might leave him alone if he gets votes the whole game but somehow manages to survive every time. No point in NK a guy who might get lynched the next day anyway

I'm not saying I agree with that or think it's particularly smart, but I do get the logic

[Danny]

It's late now but i wouldve scanned Danny. I think he's trying to get me scanned as good and then have me infected

I was scanned n0 so I was cleared at that time. Also, the infect happens first so if you were infected you would be scanned as evil, like what just happened with Chief

[bhlloy]

DV - it's impossible (barring hidden mechanics or a few of us really getting the rules wrong) for Danny to be a wolf right now

And given that last minute force, I'm hoping the other professor does scan you to be honest. That smells of panic to me.

[Danny]

I'm not saying I agree with that or think it's particularly smart, but I do get the logic

It's also cause my win condition was to survive the entire game, even above helping the village. I probably wouldn't have done that otherwise.

[Raiders Army]

Well the lynch was pretty anticlimatic.

[Danny]

That win condition is gone now though, so my only goal is to help the village win at this point.

[Darth Vilus]

It's also cause my win condition was to survive the entire game, even above helping the village. I probably wouldn't have done that otherwise.

You just lost though, to win both of you had to survive. Now the only way for you to win is if you die.

And scan me if you guys want, I just don't understand why Danny is so hopped up on scanning me over anyone else. I had maybe 2 posts yesterday and he's going off that? I dunno

[Danny]

You just lost though, to win both of you had to survive. Now the only way for you to win is if you die.

And scan me if you guys want, I just don't understand why Danny is so hopped up on scanning me over anyone else. I had maybe 2 posts yesterday and he's going off that? I dunno

Yes, I need to die at some point to win, but I also need my side to win the game as well which for now at least is the village.

I wasn't too hopped up on scanning you, I also presented some other candidates as well. I do still think you are good scan target though

[Autumn]

After the events of the first day, and the death of poor Doctor Rinehart, the second day seems more satisfying. Chief Rum, a good friend of you all, lies dead, but you all saw the savage hatred in his eyes when you cornered him and you know you may have saved someone's life.

It doesn't make you rest easier though. It's another long night of sideways glances and furtive wakings. The circles grow darker under everybody's eyes, and someone whimpers to themselves all night long. When dawn comes you all stagger outside for some fresh air and the promising touch of the sun's rays.

Day Three has begun. Deadline is Wednesday 9pm EST

[bhlloy]

He still wins with the village. And I hope we do get to scan you. I have no idea why a villager would have such a negative reaction to drawing a scan. At best you would be indifferent.

[bhlloy]

2 for 2 on scans guys. EF is a baddie

[bhlloy]

And I'm assuming this time he's not just an infected, as it wouldn't really make sense for the wolves to convert somebody they knew I was going to scan. All that means is they don't get NK for another night

[Zinto]

Well, dang bhlloy you are doing a great job as the seer.

Vote EF

[Danny]

Awesome!

Vote EF

[Zinto]

Luckily this is the time that you were not almost lynched while having a role which happens every other game.

[Darth Vilus]

The Lovers win by both surviving to the end of the game. If this happens they actually steal the Major Victory from the other winners. If one of the Lovers dies before the end of the game, both lose. If both Lovers die before the end of the game then they win or lose according to their original factions.



bhlloy, try reading the rules and then come talk to me

[Zinto]

And I say we should vote nightfall again today so we can try to move on early, because there is no point in just waiting around for for another day to start playing again.

[Danny]

So I need to die, my side still has to win

[Danny]

You all can rest assured, I was not infected last night!

[JAG]

Vote EagleFan

Nice work again. Hopefully they failed to infect last night and we have a Transforned this time.

[Darth Vilus]

and the only reason im negative is

1) I still don't get Danny's reasoning, and

2) I know I'm good and I think we should find the mummy and transformed quickly. I know that scanning me may prolong that. I don't want to have a million infected running around because we couldn't get the original baddies. I know scanning me wouldnt help anyone at this point

[Danny]

I am actually changing my mind on darth a little. I think he actually gets more upset as a villager.

[Darth Vilus]

Bite me

[Danny]

and the only reason im negative is

1) I still don't get Danny's reasoning, and


It was just a gut feeling, and I said so. I also had a gut feeling on EF right before deadline as well. I waas right about him, could be wrong about you, but I never claimed to be basing it on anything more than a gut feeling.

[Danny]

Bite me

I'm not a wolf yet, so it would do very little damage, maybe just leave a teeth mark

[cougarfreak]

2 for 2 on scans guys. EF is a baddie

NICE




Nice job!

vote Eaglefan

[The Jackal]

Epic seer game in the making here

VOTE EF

[mauchow]

Let's just say I'd like to vote Simbo Klice.

vote simbo klice

I don't know where bhlloy's allegiance lies with the possibility that he's been infected.

[The Jackal]

Hopefully I won't be as slammed at work tomorrow as I was today

[The Jackal]

Mau, professors can't be infected

[mauchow]

Well then that's very good news.

[Danny]

Uh, professors cant be infected. Bhlloy has to either be always a villager or always a wolf.

[mauchow]

Doubly good news as a matter of fact.

[Danny]

Let's just say I'd like to vote Simbo Klice.

vote simbo klice

I don't know where bhlloy's allegiance lies with the possibility that he's been infected.

Thats a bit cryptic, why simbo?

[mauchow]

Thats a bit cryptic, why simbo?

Because he's a wolf. I'd be fine with going with EF today and Simbo tomorrow. Two in a row.

[mauchow]

One of us will live through the night and get at least one more scan in.

[mauchow]

unvote simbo
vote ef
vote nightfall

[The Jackal]

So that's what you meant by doubly good news, wow

[The Jackal]

Hmm, let's see if I can get this situation straight.

If EF is the mummy, nothing is going to happen with this lynch and if someone was infected tonight they will get a kill opp.

If EF is transformed then either the mummy is going to be weakened when we lynch him, or if there was a successful infection that infected will turn into a transformed before having the opp to NK? In this situation there couldn't be a nightkill for at least two more nights (one night for infected to turn into transformed, and then other night to create a new infected).

If EF is infected, we turn to Simbo

[bhlloy]

Wow is right. I almost said that one of EF or mauboy was probably the other seer sticking around to see which way I went, but didn't want to point the wolves in that direction.

If simbo and EF are the two transformed, and we get a mummy hunter tonight, we can dream right?

[bhlloy]

I think you are right Jackal. Worst case scenario is EF is the cultist, that way the wolves keep the NK and we don't identify a key player. If the mummy, there is a NK tonight but obviously that's a huge win for the village. Any of the other three, we stay away from a NK.

[mauchow]

The only other thing that I would mention -- as one of the profs -- is that bhlloy very well may be a transformer who had a 50% shot at EF being infected. Obviously, dangerous odds to play. But with that it leads me to believe that bhlloy is indeed a professor.

Still something to think about..

[mauchow]

unvote nightfall

Making myself have second thoughts..

[EagleFan]

I haven't played in ages and the ruleset is a crapshoot. As you'll see, there is only way I could play it was as a villager.

Good luck village.

vote eaglefan

[The Jackal]

Oh right, I forgot about the cultist scanning evil, I guess that leaves another possibility open, but we'll see what EF comes back as

[The Jackal]

That's a semi-confusing statement there, thanks for that EF

[The Jackal]

The only other thing that I would mention -- as one of the profs -- is that bhlloy very well may be a transformer who had a 50% shot at EF being infected. Obviously, dangerous odds to play. But with that it leads me to believe that bhlloy is indeed a professor.

Still something to think about..

I'm not sure what you mean by this, if he was a transformer why give up two infected in a row?

[EagleFan]

Either kill me or cure me.

[Zinto]

unvote nightfall

Making myself have second thoughts..


Your vote is locked in since you voted nightfall

[mauchow]

I'm not sure what you mean by this, if he was a transformer why give up two infected in a row?

If he plays on infecting CR the first night and gets lucky he buys himself time as a "seer" then EF here may actually not be infected which in turn kills a villager but possibly two more people are infected which essentially will take over as the Transformer at some point.

[Zinto]

Either kill me or cure me.


If you are the infected you have to be lynched because you will be night killing one of our seers tonight.

[Zinto]

If he plays on infecting CR the first night and gets lucky he buys himself time as a "seer" then EF here may actually not be infected which in turn kills a villager but possibly two more people are infected which essentially will take over as the Transformer at some point.


I am not sure if it is really worth doing what you said. Bhlloy had no pressure after day one and all he would be doing is buying himself another day so that seems more like a desperation move.

[The Jackal]

If you are the infected you have to be lynched because you will be night killing one of our seers tonight.

Well technically cure comes before kill, but I don't think we want to take that risk. I'm sure the doc will target Simbo (assuming we kill EF)

But of course, since the docs aren't informed if they successfully cure, we won't know for sure that it worked due to a variety of scenarios depending on which evil roles each of them is. Best to lynch when we know for sure

[EagleFan]

Then lynch me, please. That will at least buy you another night without a nightkill.

[Zinto]

I believe it is highly unlikely that bhlloy would fake reveal at this point and if he did then I do not understand what he accomplished in doing so.

[mauchow]

I am not sure if it is really worth doing what you said. Bhlloy had no pressure after day one and all he would be doing is buying himself another day so that seems more like a desperation move.

Right - I guess. I was just trying to figure out if it was worth doing a sacrifice like that.

With EF asking to be cured I feel good about bhlloy now.

[Zinto]

Well technically cure comes before kill, but I don't think we want to take that risk. I'm sure the doc will target Simbo (assuming we kill EF)

But of course, since the docs aren't informed if they successfully cure, we won't know for sure that it worked due to a variety of scenarios depending on which evil roles each of them is. Best to lynch when we know for sure


Right I keep forgetting the order of night actions. I guess we could go Simbo first, we could try and tie them but more than likely it will get mucked up but I agree that the doctor should try to cure the other person who survives the lynch.

[Autumn]

I wouldn't normally clarify a rule I'm not asked about, but looking at the rules I see I did not write it carefully enough, and I see that people are getting the wrong idea.

The Cultist, though they win with Evil, do not scan as Evil. That is like a normal Cultist, but I see implied the opposite in the rules writeup.

[The Jackal]

Awesome, that's good news in terms of these scans

[bhlloy]

Well obviously that is huge. Assuming mauboy is telling the truth we know the identity of at least one important bad guy

[mauchow]

N0 - Pass
N1 - Narcizo - Good
N2 - Simbo - Bad

[Simbo Klice]

Well, I get back here and see all types of ridiculousness has transpired. I'm probably going to get lynched based on the way things are shaking out so I'll throw it all on the table. I'm Professor Davis. I got bhlloy as my initial positive, then Passa was good on night 1... and I had EagleFan since early this morning as my scan. Should've said something much earlier, bh.

I don't know what kind of BS mauboy's got, but I clearly can't be infected.

Vote mauboy

[Simbo Klice]

I'll note I was against bhlloy revealing his positive because there was a possibility they were roled, as I'd gotten him and I was worried he had me.

[mauchow]

Hmm..

[The Jackal]

What does Mau have to gain from a fake reveal here?

[Simbo Klice]

What does Mau have to gain from a fake reveal here?

He made me reveal, and might get me lynched. Then we can safely assume bhlloy gets NK'ed and you have no professors. I'd say he's the cultist.

[mauchow]

If I could switch my vote I possibly would. But we've got two wolves/infected for the next two days, regardless.

[Zinto]

The only way that Mau fake reveals is if he is the cultist and started to feel the pressure on the wolves hoping to draw out the seer. The chances that as the cultist he picked Simbo out of a hat to say was bad and he happened to be the seer are super small so it seems unlikely.

[The Jackal]

He made me reveal, and might get me lynched. Then we can safely assume bhlloy gets NK'ed and you have no professors. I'd say he's the cultist.

Very good point there. I was trying to think why mau would out a random villager but forgot the cultist could scan for professors

[Zinto]

Very good point there. I was trying to think why mau would out a random villager but forgot the cultist could scan for professors


And I forgot that also:)

[The Jackal]

And I forgot that also:)

It's still unlikely. Or very lucky. I was starting to think that EF is the mummy goading us into voting for him because he knows nothing will happen, but it may be hard to convince ourselves not to lynch the guy our known (i guess not 100% but close enough) seer outed

[Simbo Klice]

unvote mauboy
vote EagleFan

We should leave him be for now. Both professors are out and we should try to stop the Nightkills from happening so we have time to work. Now that we're both out in the open, :mad: we can actually communicate scans before the last friggin' hour when some people are headed to work.

[Autumn]

I'm out for the night.

[Danny]

The only way that Mau fake reveals is if he is the cultist and started to feel the pressure on the wolves hoping to draw out the seer. The chances that as the cultist he picked Simbo out of a hat to say was bad and he happened to be the seer are super small so it seems unlikely.

That is possible actually, i hadnt considered that.

[The Jackal]

About time for me to get some sleep. Will do my best to post during the day but work is very busy at the moment and my break time needs to be partially devoted to the hero draft :)

Some food for thought from this exchange for sure

[bhlloy]

It's a nice try Simbo. For a moment I could totally see the cultist pulling that move.

But then we'd have to accept the fact that he luckily picked you and hit the seer. There's no way of knowing that. So that's 1 in 16 or something along those lines. Then we'd also accept that you got the other seer as your n0 scan which is something I don't think the GM would do. And that you luckily picked EF as your scan before I did today, which is another 1 in 16 shot. All in all, it's just way too much to be believable.

If you are telling the truth, hell of a play by Mauboy and hopefully I don't get NK tonight. But to buy your story is just too far fetched.

vote simbo

[Simbo Klice]

Not to overstate my case, but this is the exact play the cultist should/would make. His asset is to learn the identity of professors, so posing as one to cause confusion and hopefully get the town to lynch one is his best case scenario when he finds one, with the worst case being that they have to out themselves. I'd also note that we have a history as an ill-fated pairing in the Dungeon that may have been the reason he selected me to check out.

Although I know it would be a waste of town assets and would prefer not to do it, bh could scan me tonight and confirm I'm not Evil.

[bhlloy]

Simbo's story also sounds like something a wolf would be coached to say. My guess is he's one of the transformed and he put his head together with the other one to come up with that story. I'm thinking he might not be a better kill today than EF, who seems to want us to vote for him and could well be the mummy, which is why my vote is on him for now. I also think we need to clear up him vs mauboy as soon as possible and not give mau the potential chance of misleading us tomorrow

Assuming mau is telling the truth I'm glad he cleared Narc as that was going to be my next scan. I also think we can buy a little trust for Pass being named as Simbo's good scan, there's slightly less chance of him being a wolf now IMO

[bhlloy]

Simbo - that would be a horrible use of town assets seeing as we almost certainly only have 2 scans left. But a nice wolf play to suggest it :)

[Simbo Klice]

It's a nice try Simbo. For a moment I could totally see the cultist pulling that move.

But then we'd have to accept the fact that he luckily picked you and hit the seer. There's no way of knowing that. So that's 1 in 16 or something along those lines. Then we'd also accept that you got the other seer as your n0 scan which is something I don't think the GM would do. And that you luckily picked EF as your scan before I did today, which is another 1 in 16 shot. All in all, it's just way too much to be believable.

If you are telling the truth, hell of a play by Mauboy and hopefully I don't get NK tonight. But to buy your story is just too far fetched.

vote simbo

And that's why I'm pretty resigned to my fate. Why'd you pick EagleFan? I did because he seemed to balk at your first scan result, and that was scummy to me. If you hadn't waited until so close to deadline, I might have been able to get something else.

[Passacaglia]

Well, I get back here and see all types of ridiculousness has transpired. I'm probably going to get lynched based on the way things are shaking out so I'll throw it all on the table. I'm Professor Davis. I got bhlloy as my initial positive, then Passa was good on night 1... and I had EagleFan since early this morning as my scan. Should've said something much earlier, bh.

I don't know what kind of BS mauboy's got, but I clearly can't be infected.

Vote mauboy

So it's
Night 0 -- bhlloy
Night 1 -- Passacaglia
Night 2 -- EagleFan

And you had EagleFan since this morning? What time zone are you in?

[Simbo Klice]

Simbo - that would be a horrible use of town assets seeing as we almost certainly only have 2 scans left. But a nice wolf play to suggest it :)

Glad you're so confident, just remember you screwed the pooch big-time on this one.

[Simbo Klice]

So it's
Night 0 -- bhlloy
Night 1 -- Passacaglia
Night 2 -- EagleFan

And you had EagleFan since this morning? What time zone are you in?

Actually 11:55 PM last night. I'm in EST but work nights mostly.

[Passacaglia]

Then when did you find out about me?

[EagleFan]

Don't vote Simbo, definitely don't vote mau as occam's razor says mau is th eone telling the truth at this point. Vote me or cure me. I would rather you go the cure me route but that seems like it isn't certain.

[KWhit]

Vote EagleFan

[Passacaglia]

Then when did you find out about me?

And who did you find out about tonight?

[bhlloy]

And that's why I'm pretty resigned to my fate. Why'd you pick EagleFan? I did because he seemed to balk at your first scan result, and that was scummy to me. If you hadn't waited until so close to deadline, I might have been able to get something else.

Small discrepancies in his story while talking to Danny and I close to deadline, plus the feeling he was throwing out generic analysis at a time when nobody was voting and he was unlikely to get heat for it during the time that people were going to be considering who to vote for.

If you are telling the truth, that will be the most insanely unlucky turn of events in a WW game ever. I think you made your story too perfect. If you had chosen three random likely to be villagers as your scans, I might have considered it.

[EagleFan]

And that's why I'm pretty resigned to my fate. Why'd you pick EagleFan? I did because he seemed to balk at your first scan result, and that was scummy to me. If you hadn't waited until so close to deadline, I might have been able to get something else.

I didn't balk at the scan result. You may want to re-read what I said.

[Simbo Klice]

Then when did you find out about me?

If you want an exact time, 10:12.

I put my scan in that early because the vote was a runaway and Autumn had mentioned to be sure to get your PMs in in the event that Nightfall was voted.

[Simbo Klice]

vote Chief Rum

Seems like a slam dunk but that itself can be troublesome as nothing is ever that easy on day two, is it?

Was going to look at voting a Julio voter. Not sure if Chief is on that list.

Sorry that I missed the deadlines but I was exhausted (very little sleep last night, damn insomnia) and fell asleep. There seemed to be a lot of changing after I laid down.

This is you winding most of the way up to pitch and instead throwing to first.

[Passacaglia]

If you want an exact time, 10:12.

I put my scan in that early because the vote was a runaway and Autumn had mentioned to be sure to get your PMs in in the event that Nightfall was voted.

10:12 last night, or two nights ago?

[Simbo Klice]

Small discrepancies in his story while talking to Danny and I close to deadline, plus the feeling he was throwing out generic analysis at a time when nobody was voting and he was unlikely to get heat for it during the time that people were going to be considering who to vote for.

If you are telling the truth, that will be the most insanely unlucky turn of events in a WW game ever. I think you made your story too perfect. If you had chosen three random likely to be villagers as your scans, I might have considered it.

I wish there was a video recording me as I caught up. I went from happy to getting the PM, to grimacing as I read you and Danny's part, to straight out WTF when mauboy popped in. I can't believe how screwed I got myself.

[Simbo Klice]

10:12 last night, or two nights ago?

On 6/4/12.

[EagleFan]

This is you winding most of the way up to pitch and instead throwing to first.

Not really. How many day two slam dunks are there? If I'm a wolf at that time all I do is vote and say nothing (except maybe a generic "great job seer".

I've been infected. Lynching me will prevent a night kill so I have no issue with being lynched.

[Passacaglia]

On 6/4/12.

And you found out about EF on the morning of 6/5/12 (this morning)? That does not make sense.

[bhlloy]

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

[bhlloy]

I'm also wondering given the nice back and forth you have going with EF if you aren't transformed and he's either the other transformed or the mummy. I suspect the latter, but we'll find out soon enough I guess

[Danny]

Glad you're so confident, just remember you screwed the pooch big-time on this one.

Bh has played a great game so far

[EagleFan]

Oh well, I'm out. I'll keep following, good luck village.

For what it's worth:

I would go Simbo for the day three lynch and then have one of the seers scan Danny to make sure he is still good while the other should go after another player (based on how they have been plahing so far, though slam dunk votes won't really help with that analysis). The longer you can keep trust in Danny the better it will be for the village as you'll have a known member in the CoT.

[Simbo Klice]

Not really. How many day two slam dunks are there? If I'm a wolf at that time all I do is vote and say nothing (except maybe a generic "great job seer".

I've been infected. Lynching me will prevent a night kill so I have no issue with being lynched.

Day 2 is usually either a slam dunk or a repeat of day 1, in my experience. And even though it's now 1-for-1, I still think the go-to Mummies/Transformed line is "I'm infected." Why would they choose to infect you when you were confirmed to be scanned in the thread?

And you found out about EF on the morning of 6/5/12 (this morning)? That does not make sense.

No, I sent the PM in this morning. I get the results after nightfall so I just found out about EF. I sent it in last night at that time.

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

I think I'll find that too, I'm sad to say. I know I'm fighting a losing battle on this one.

[Zinto]

Eh, I wouldn't have either of the Professors scan Danny. One of the nurses can and then the doctor can cure him if he is infected. It just doesn't make sense for the professors to scan someone they know can be cured.

[Simbo Klice]

Bh has played a great game so far

I'm sure everyone but me, including the Mummy and Transformed, think so.

[Danny]

Zinto it was coming from a known baddie, ef is not posting to help the village,

[Zinto]

I know I just want to make sure we do not waste what maybe our last scan on you.

[Zinto]

And when I say maybe I mean may be.

[Danny]

I agree

[Danny]

Especially as im motivated to want to die at some point

[CrimsonFox]

so let me get this straight. Both seers are outed now? *facepalm*

[Narcizo]

Can people stop voting nightfall until we've had a proper chance to think this through? I don't have time now but really why is everyone in such a hurry to lock their votes up?

For one thing I think there's very little chance that EF is infected - Simbo might be. To keep both our seers alive another night we maybe should target the person we think most likely to be infected.

For another I want to read through Simbo and mau's reveals. I don't have much time now but I think everyone should take a deep breath and stop rushing to instant conclusions and voting nightfall on it.

[Narcizo]

Ahh! Ok. It's only mau who has voted nightfall.

Sorry about that then. :redface:

[Narcizo]

so let me get this straight. Both seers are outed now? *facepalm*

On the plus side it's a pretty good game to have your seers outed. BH has already lasted one night. One seer is going to last at least one more night.

[CrimsonFox]

okay so EF is a bad guy but we don't know what kind?

[CrimsonFox]

I'm surprised we don't have 10 nightfalls again by now

[CrimsonFox]

bhlloy on a hotstreak. hotstreakarino. makin-some-copppppieeeeeees.

[CrimsonFox]

what's with people not knowing that nightfall locks in your votes. Autumn has been whining about that for half a year now that's why he made nightfall lockable in all his games. :) *hides from autumn*

[JAG]

I don't buy Simbo's story as mathematically it's unlikely. Once you remove Danny, bh, and themselves as scan possibilities, there was a 4/15 chance for the seer to scan a wolf last night. For the cultist, they would have had a 1/14 chance to scan the seer last night assuming their other two scans were still alive, or else 1/15 / 1/16 otherwise.

[CrimsonFox]

<table class="tborder" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="alt1">britrock88 (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/member.php?u=16358) </td> <td class="alt1">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt2"> Raiders Army (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/member.php?u=76) </td> <td class="alt2">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="alt1"> KWhit (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/member.php?u=2592) </td> <td class="alt1">7</td></tr></tbody></table>

kwhit, raiders, and britrock have been astoundingly quiet in all this. I'd like to hear their thoughts.

[CrimsonFox]

Going here for the slamdunk
Vote Eaglefan

but will see what happens

[Raiders Army]

As someone mentioned yesterday, I don't understand why the seers are outing baddies so early in the day. Great we got a few, but wouldn't it be better to establish some voting history? When/if both seers get whacked we're going to have very little to analyze. My two cents.

[Raiders Army]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Narcizo]

As someone mentioned yesterday, I don't understand why the seers are outing baddies so early in the day. Great we got a few, but wouldn't it be better to establish some voting history? When/if both seers get whacked we're going to have very little to analyze. My two cents.

Yeah. We better hope we get two perma-bad guys out of this or this is not going to go well.

I still have my doubts about mau's story. I would have liked a bit more of a backstory out of him at the reveal rather than dribs and drabs later. Then again he does get the benefit of revealing first and the raw numbers being in his favour. Then again I doubt Simbo would claim bhlloy as n0 if he was making it up, nor EF for n2. Just makes his story instantly dodgy sounding.

At the moment I imagine lynching eagle and having the doctor cure Simbo is the way forward for today. I want to read the rules again for tomorrow to see what we potentially lose by keeping Simbo alive - standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.

Vote EagleFan

[mauchow]

At this point in time with EF having more of a chance being an infected than Simbo. Simbo is fake revealing which isn't going to be an infected saying that. It's a transformed or the mummy.

I was early to jump on the EF wagon last night because I didn't think it would matter either way and the quick nightfall vote ruined that for me. I saw people unvoting nightfall yesterday so I assumed that I'd be able to as well. It doesn't matter to me a whole lot if we go EF tonight and Simbo tomorrow but honestly Simbo's fake reveal tells me we have something here.

[The Jackal]

It's a nice try Simbo. There's absolutely nothing you could possibly say to get me to change sides on this one and I think you will find everyone else thinks the same way. For things to go down the way you said they went down, the chances of that are absolutely astronomical. If by some one in a million shot you are telling the truth, this will be the most epic game ever.

If you all thought Narc was going to flip out last night, imagine when he gets on tonight. Hi Narc.

I don't know if it's one in a million. The chances of you hitting two wolves in a row are less than the cultist hitting one professor in two scans.

Is it unlikely? Definitely. Simbo came out with his reply really quickly though, and mau isn't inspiring super confidence in me. But it will be pretty hard to justify voting mau over simbo at this point.

[The Jackal]

I don't buy Simbo's story as mathematically it's unlikely. Once you remove Danny, bh, and themselves as scan possibilities, there was a 4/15 chance for the seer to scan a wolf last night. For the cultist, they would have had a 1/14 chance to scan the seer last night assuming their other two scans were still alive, or else 1/15 / 1/16 otherwise.

The cultist would have had two nights to scan for the professor, increasing the odds slightly. But the math is still in mau's favor here. I think the only thing that's nagging at me is the timing of his reveal.

[bhlloy]

I have to admit I have completely the other viewpoint on this one. I find the math that would have to be involved in Simbo's claim pretty incredible, and I think EF is very likely to be the mummy trying to save his team's NK tonight. Autumn was very clear about play within the spirit of the game and for the side you are currently on. EF being honest about being the infected and asking for a cure seems to go completely against that.

As for the Simbo math, there's also the math that he randomly hit another wolf yesterday AND it happened to be the exact same person that I ended up picking, which is another 1 in whatever shot. And you guys really think that Autumn gave him the other professor as his n0 negative scan? I'm sorry, I think he picked a story that he could prove without thinking how unlikely that whole sequence of events was. I think if we step back and look at this objectively, it's a bit of a no brainer and I'm a little confused that some strong players don't agree. I have some concerns about Mau's reveal but to go with Simbo's version seems insane

[bhlloy]

I don't know if it's one in a million. The chances of you hitting two wolves in a row are less than the cultist hitting one professor in two scans.


I'd like to think there were great reads in both my scan choices thank you very much :p

If you can go back and find any reason that cultist Mau chooses to scan Simbo, I'll give you a cookie. I've looked and can't see any reason he'd choose to do that other than taking the 1 in 14/15/16 shot and getting really lucky

[mauchow]

I think the cultist is laughing his ass off somewhere.

[bhlloy]

standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.



I don't understand this Narc. Why on earth would the wolves kill one of them and clear it up for us?

[JAG]

The cultist would have had two nights to scan for the professor, increasing the odds slightly. But the math is still in mau's favor here. I think the only thing that's nagging at me is the timing of his reveal.

Just want to say my math should be correct. 18 players left, minus 2 scans, themselves, and bhlloy = 1/14, or 1/15 / 1/16 if their scans are dead or they got bhlloy but didn't reveal before he did or missed a scan.

[JAG]

At this point in time with EF having more of a chance being an infected than Simbo.

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

[Simbo Klice]

Yeah. We better hope we get two perma-bad guys out of this or this is not going to go well.

I still have my doubts about mau's story. I would have liked a bit more of a backstory out of him at the reveal rather than dribs and drabs later. Then again he does get the benefit of revealing first and the raw numbers being in his favour. Then again I doubt Simbo would claim bhlloy as n0 if he was making it up, nor EF for n2. Just makes his story instantly dodgy sounding.

At the moment I imagine lynching eagle and having the doctor cure Simbo is the way forward for today. I want to read the rules again for tomorrow to see what we potentially lose by keeping Simbo alive - standard theory in a potential Sorceror vs Seer is to let the wolves sort out the argument with a nk. This has the added bonus of the wolves likely to be doing the killing not knowing for sure which is which.

Vote EagleFan

Incredibly good sense coming right here, just about everything I thought about in the car on the way home- though I really don't want a Doctor cure as I'm not infected, and would hate to see something that can help us go to waste.

Here's the rest of what I'd say:

You have your trusted Seer with a good result that he announced he was doing beforehand, reducing the probability that Wolves would select him for an infection.

Right after that, mau comes out and reveals me, and even tries to throw some suspicion on bhlloy.

I put out an immediate defense for every question you guys had-

Why would mau choose me? (Ill-fated teamup in the Dungeon... won't mention the fact that the only true WW game I've played here so far resulted in a shutout victory for my team... Or maybe I just did. ;))

When/why did I pick EagleFan? (I went and grabbed the post that tweaked me in like 14 seconds.)

Look back, I explicitly stated that I was worried about bhlloy revealing his random viewing after he outed himself as the Professor, because it might be a roled villager. Why would I say that? Because I got him, and as the other Professor, I thought it was possible that Autumn just gave us each other as a "the professors would know each other" thing, and I wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

The logic is all there, sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction.

[Simbo Klice]

I don't understand this Narc. Why on earth would the wolves kill one of them and clear it up for us?

We're the only ones capable of finding them through non-lynching means. With all professors spoken for, the Cultist is no longer useful, I don't even think he counts for parity. It's a minor loss for them versus a large potential gain. And even if they're wrong, they'll then be right the next night.

[Simbo Klice]

We're the only ones capable of finding them through non-lynching means. With all professors spoken for, the Cultist is no longer useful, I don't even think he counts for parity. It's a minor loss for them versus a large potential gain. And even if they're wrong, they'll then be right the next night.

dola (I actually searched for that for a long time to understand it :D)

Until the Mummy Hunter shows up, I should say.

[Autumn]

what's with people not knowing that nightfall locks in your votes. Autumn has been whining about that for half a year now that's why he made nightfall lockable in all his games. :) *hides from autumn*

http://sawyerspeaks.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/monty_foot.jpg

[JAG]

Just to keep things organized with scans:

Not one of the starting Evils:
Danny
Pass (claimed good by two players claiming Professor)
bhlloy (uncontested Professor reveal)

Highly unlikely to be one of the starting evils
mauboy (99% chance to be professor or cultist)


The rest we'll sort out later.

[britrock88]

Nice, Autumn.

Why are we headed EF's way at this point? It does us little good to lynch an infected (taking EF at his word) when Simbo has offered us a story with far less than a 1 percent probability of being true.

[JAG]

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

To add to this, EF as mummy would know whether or not there was a successful infection last night. If he knows it was successful, he would be satisfied with a lynch because he knows he'll still be in the game and bhlloy will be night killed.

[The Jackal]

Just want to say my math should be correct. 18 players left, minus 2 scans, themselves, and bhlloy = 1/14, or 1/15 / 1/16 if their scans are dead or they got bhlloy but didn't reveal before he did or missed a scan.

This is just for one night though right? I meant there would have been two chances to scan for the professor, not just one night as people had been hinting at, but either way the chances are pretty low and we can agree on that.

[mauchow]

I don't understand this logic. After bhlloy announced he was scanning EF, the wolves decided to infect EF, this guaranteeing our seers two more scans? I think it's a near certainty that EF is one of the starting wolves, probably the mummy since he wants us to vote for him and even self-voted.

My point is that simbo is claiming my role. Ef is claiming to be infected. At worst simbo is a transformer or mummy trying to create problems for us. Ef may also be those things but somebody claiming my role as an infected is not gonna happen.

I also was on board w ef right away without waiting to see what simbo said and voted nightfall . That was dumb on my part and I'm not sure why I thought it could be undone. Nothing in rules.

Again I've got no issues with waiting until tomorrow for simbo getting lynched but I believe now that simbo is the play for today.

[Danny]

Cooked up the rest of the spicy Italian sausage for breakfast, oh yeah!

[Danny]

So we know Mau is either the cultist or a seer. Simbo is either the mummy, infected or transformed or the seer. In general there is more reward in lynching Simbo and the pure mathematical odds are against him. That said, his reveal was better than Maus actually and why would he have made up EF. Still its difficult to vote against the odds.

Overall, it may be best to make the wolves decide for us.

[Narcizo]

Why is anyone paying any attention to what Eagle says? If he were infected he sure as hell shouldn't be claiming it.

[Passacaglia]

Why is anyone paying any attention to what Eagle says? If he were infected he sure as hell shouldn't be claiming it.

I've just been skimming, but isn't there a chance bhlloy could be infected?

[bhlloy]

No, professors can't be infected

And yes, I find it very unlikely that EF is infected. If he was transformed he'd be trying to avoid drawing votes. Which leads me to believe he's the mummy

[bhlloy]

Danny - can you explain why the wolves would want to clear this up for us? Especially as they have no idea who the real seer is and who is the cultist (beyond what is in thread)

[Danny]

Because if they don't we get more scans.

[Danny]

Yes we won't know exactly which of the two is telling the truth, but once we do finally confirm the right one, we have more information.

[Danny]

If Simbo is telling the truth for example, there is little risk in waiting since we would only be lynching the cultist. If Mauboy is then there is more of a potential reward.

[LoneStarGirl]

Hey guys, sorry I was MIA yesterday. They had me on some hard core drugs and I slept until 4 this morning. I thought yesterday was going to be a boring unanimous vote Chief day yet I see I've missed 7 pages.

[LoneStarGirl]

So not ideal then all in all.

Wish Julio had realised that there would be no night kill night one and the possibility of none night two. Easy for me to say but he should have revealed.

Chief could have been infected and then scanned right? I guess that's what Chief's hinting at. You know, what with chief being a likely target for infection and all. Shame you guys have ALL LOCKED YOUR VOTES IN AL-BLEEDIN'-READY! Bhlloy knows he probably didn't do the right thing here but then again neither has anyone else. What can you do about it now.

Worst case scenario is that Chief was a nurse.

Dont judge too harshly, I had to vote before I left for the day, would hate to not get a vote in *coughKwhitcough*

[LoneStarGirl]

Careful, that edit button angers the werewolf gods..... right CF?????

:)

I laughed

[bhlloy]

Because if they don't we get more scans.

Possibly. But I'm almost certainly going down tonight, and not resolving the simbo/mauboy situation the next day will also give the wolves an extra bite if Simbo is the infected. I'd definitely trade that for a random seer scan if I am a wolf. This isn't a normal game and I think we need to resolve that question today.

EF can wait. We know he's bad. I don't understand the rush to lynch a guy who seems like he wants to be lynched. That always ends up going well.

[bhlloy]

Sorry, meant to say if Simbo is the transformed, not if Simbo is the infected

Also on the very off chance that EF is telling the truth and is just an infected (which would be disappointing to me) then he could be cured this evening. We still have a doctor in the game.

[LoneStarGirl]

You don't play that often, but I'd say my average length in games before being night killed is about 2 days.

If I remember correctly this happened to Lathum and AlanT a lot... but they were always thought of as great players.... so I dont know what the reasoning behind killing you early is. ;)

[LoneStarGirl]

I just read a lot and its hard to digest at this point. It looks like either MAuboy or Bhlloy is lying? But If Bhlloy gave us Chief last night then he's probably telling the truth about EF.

Or is the debate that Simbo or Mauboy is lying? I know we have four seers, three still alive, is that right?

[Danny]

No, bh is telling the truth. Its either Simbo or Mauboy who is lying

[GoldenEagle]

I need to get caught up here, but I am a bit suspicious of bhlloy. If the scans are accurate, then obviously that is a good thing. But this is all surpressing all discussion of candidates and vote history, which would be very valuable to the wolves.

So I think it is possible that these scans are to through us off our game and the wolves are just sending us who they infected.

[JAG]

If EF is Transformed, of which the odds are better mathematically (2/4, or 2/3 if you dismiss he's infected)it there is significant upside in lynching him, as we'll get at least five more scans in (worst case is there's another infected that is promoted to Transformed and they don't get a conversion that night, so it would be at least two nights before they could get a night kill in). That's practically game over village wins good.

If EF is the mummy, bhlloy is probably dead unless we get fortunate with a cure (presuming EF as mummy would play this way knowing there would be a night kill) so we probably don't get more than one scan the rest of the game which increases the difficulty quite a bit. There would potentially be a couple of infecteds running around then too. On the plus side, the mummy hunter gets a straight shot at getting the mummy out of the game.

In the very unlikely event he is infected, it's another free pair of scans for our seers.

[bhlloy]

That would be kind of genius GE, but very easily disproven with a counter reveal. Plus if the wolves did do that they would never ever get a NK, which is very counterproductive for them.

[JAG]

I need to get caught up here, but I am a bit suspicious of bhlloy. If the scans are accurate, then obviously that is a good thing. But this is all surpressing all discussion of candidates and vote history, which would be very valuable to the wolves.

So I think it is possible that these scans are to through us off our game and the wolves are just sending us who they infected.

I rate that possibility as highly unlikely. Aside from the fact that the real professor could call him out at some point, the wolves would get no night kills to remove the most dangerous villager roles following such a strategy and our seers would just continue accumulating scan information.

[Narcizo]

I think that mau's reaction means there's reasonable doubt about him vs simbo and we should leave them. Still think it's worth the doctor curing simbo. Don't think we should analyze more between simbo och mau. Let the infected worry about that.

[bhlloy]

Let's discuss the remaining doctor tonight for a second. Is it worth him targeting Simbo if we are seriously talking about not lynching him tomorrow? I'd say no but on the off chance he is infected and not a roled evil it could deprive them of a NK tomorrow night, if we get lucky with tonight's bite

[bhlloy]

wow, great minds even if we came to a different conclusion

The issue with that Narc is that obviously Simbo says "I'm cured" and we have no idea if that's true or not. Unless we use our potential last scan on him as well. I'm not a fan of that at all.

[GoldenEagle]

Never mind, my post makes no sense.

[bhlloy]

So Narc, you are happy to roll the dice on 1/14 odds that Mauboy chose a real professor with his scan plus the other unlikely things with his story? Don't we usually play the odds in this situation?

[bhlloy]

correction... other unlikely things with Simbo's story

[bhlloy]

Also if Simbo is transformed or the mummy (basically anything other than infected so a 3/4 chance) the wolves aren't going to resolve this for us I don't think. They aren't going to give up that valuable a role just to stop the seer who will be back to shooting in the dark

Sorry for the stream of consciousness, working from home this morning so have more time to think about this than usual weekday

[The Jackal]

Well, since the only evils that can communicate with each other are transformed, any infected NK's won't be coordinated, they wouldn't know if either simbo/mau or anyone for that matter was transformed/mummy/infected

[The Jackal]

If we think EF is the mummy it might be worth going elsewhere but EF could also be a transformed trying to goad us into thinking he's the mummy so that we don't vote him off and go elsewhere. Hard to vote against bhlloy's scan, unless we feel really strongly about mau/simbo.

[bhlloy]

Which is funny because I think I'm the one that feels the strongest about voting against my scan and going after Simbo

[The Jackal]

Which is funny because I think I'm the one that feels the strongest about voting against my scan and going after Simbo

Still, are we overthinking it here, or playing it smart?

[The Jackal]

Sadly, my break is over

[bhlloy]

Here are my reasons for that thinking:

1) nasty feeling that EF is the mummy and won't go down tonight, leaving ourselves completely open to NK for the rest of the game
2) thinking that Simbo's story is just too much of a longshot to be true and
3) thinking that in this particular ruleset the wolves are unlikely to resolve this for us and it's the most pressing thing we need to resolve

Honestly, the more time goes by, the more I am overthinking it and wondering about mauboy. For a supposedly revealed seer who is probably going to survive the night he's not around contributing much, which makes me wonder. And there are definitely things around Simbo's reveal that would make it more believable than Mau's, if the math just wasn't so much in his favor.

[mauchow]

I'd likely change my vote but I'm locked in ef which is fine.

[bhlloy]

Typing that out was actually good, as I think I'm back on the EF first bandwagon and this is why. If Simbo is the true seer, he can at least get a scan in tonight, while if we lynch him the wolves can eliminate both seers in a single day. That's a bit of a scary thought. So I'm fine with going down the EF road today I guess

unvote simbo
vote EF

[mauchow]

I'm at work and on phone for another 5 hours. Tough for good contribution.

[bhlloy]

And even a wolf simbo claiming to be the seer has to pick somebody to clear, and that is information the village can use as well.

[GoldenEagle]

What percentage do we have to think that EF is the mummy before we go in another direction? I am guessing about 80%.

I will go ahead and state that i am 90% sure EF is the mummy.

[JAG]

Worst case (and by gut I think the likeliest), EF is the mummy and we should be able to take him out by night five or end of D5 depending on when the hunter kill happens. That takes down the number of bad guys we have to kill to 2 and prevents them from making any new Transformed if we lynch them. Sucks to probably lose our seers, but confirming that info for the hunter is probably worth it, otherwise we're just taking a low probability guess for today.

[bhlloy]

Uh, does that mean you think neither mauboy or simbo is bad then JAG? I'm on the EF train for now but I hardly think we're taking a low probability guess here if we don't go with him

mau/simbo, whichever one of you is the real seer might want to take a look at JAG after that statement

[Narcizo]

Let's discuss the remaining doctor tonight for a second. Is it worth him targeting Simbo if we are seriously talking about not lynching him tomorrow? I'd say no but on the off chance he is infected and not a roled evil it could deprive them of a NK tomorrow night, if we get lucky with tonight's bite

It's worth curing him if we don't lynch him today whatever. Seems like the percentage play. He would claim seer to keep himself alive if he was infected - unless anyone has any better ideas about who the infected could be, why not chance curing him - whether we're going to lynch him tomorrow or not. We get to keep both seers alive another night if he is infected.

Didn't want to get drawn on mau but the way he's pressing to lynch Simbo instead of EF (who really can't be infected as far as I'm concerned) and the way he's been playing today makes me think he might be lying and trying to get the most out of the situation by keeping EF alive another day. Not sure by any means but I think there's an element of doubt.

Bear in mind that mau has cleared me. There's a chance that I might have been infected last night but even if I was then I don't actually know if mau or simbo is telling the truth. Maybe I think it's obvious that mau is telling the truth but I can't know it.

[JAG]

Don't get paranoid bh. I meant if we leave mau/Simbo alone and vote for unknowns, it's a lower percentage play than hopefully taking out a Transformed or guaranteeing our Hunter a mummy target.

[Narcizo]

Also if Simbo is transformed or the mummy (basically anything other than infected so a 3/4 chance) the wolves aren't going to resolve this for us I don't think. They aren't going to give up that valuable a role just to stop the seer who will be back to shooting in the dark


The "wolves" don't have anything to do with it. It will be the infected person who will decide what to do. And if they want to leave a seer alive to clear people and possibly find another bad guy then that works for me. It will come out in the wash sooner or later.

[bhlloy]

It's worth curing him if we don't lynch him today whatever. Seems like the percentage play. He would claim seer to keep himself alive if he was infected - unless anyone has any better ideas about who the infected could be, why not chance curing him - whether we're going to lynch him tomorrow or not. We get to keep both seers alive another night if he is infected.



I think you are right here. Worst case scenario the doctor wastes a cure that was probably going to be wasted anyway.

Doctor, Doctor I think I'm a bell?
Take these and if it doesn't help give me a ring!
Shut up Doctor. Also cure Simbo tonight. kthxbye

[bhlloy]

The "wolves" don't have anything to do with it. It will be the infected person who will decide what to do. And if they want to leave a seer alive to clear people and possibly find another bad guy then that works for me. It will come out in the wash sooner or later.

I must be really dense here, I don't seem to get what everyone else clearly understands. How will the infected decide what to do?

[Narcizo]

I don't get the certainty that Eagle is the Mummy. Anyone checked his posts to see any evidence? I'd do it but I don't have the time. If he's the Mummy he saw that everyone was going to vote him. Why throw a spanner in the works by getting all cryptic about it?

[Narcizo]

I must be really dense here, I don't seem to get what everyone else clearly understands. How will the infected decide what to do?

It's the infected who make the night kills. The infected have no way to communicate with any other wolves except in this thread.

[bhlloy]

So we're relying on the infected to out themselves in thread? Doesn't sound like a great plan to me

[JAG]

I don't get the certainty that Eagle is the Mummy. Anyone checked his posts to see any evidence? I'd do it but I don't have the time. If he's the Mummy he saw that everyone was going to vote him. Why throw a spanner in the works by getting all cryptic about it?

Yes, I did. There was one interesting post a little after bhlloy revealed Rum as bad where he tries to play down the reveal and talks about how he was thinking of looking at a Julio voter.

[JAG]

Here:

vote Chief Rum

Seems like a slam dunk but that itself can be troublesome as nothing is ever that easy on day two, is it?

Was going to look at voting a Julio voter. Not sure if Chief is on that list.

Sorry that I missed the deadlines but I was exhausted (very little sleep last night, damn insomnia) and fell asleep. There seemed to be a lot of changing after I laid down.

Here's the D1 vote count:

CrimsonFox (4) - raiders army (141), EagleFan (178), Chief Rum (248), JAG (429)
Zinto (4) - the jackal (145), Darth Vilus (240), Lonestargirl (370), GoldenEagle (384)
Danny (4) - Britrock88 (149), Simbo Klice (260), Cougarfreak (373), Julio (428)
Julio Riddols (6) - Bhlloy (192), Narcizo (261), mauboy1 (368), CrimsonFox (406), Zinto (408), Danny (414)
Cougarfreak (1) - passacaglia (331)

No vote: KWhit


So of the Julio voters, we know bh, Danny, and Mau were not Transformed or Mummy. EF voted for CF, which speaks well to him not being a Big 3 Evil. I think he might have wanted to vote a Julio voter because he knew there were no Big 3 Evil players there, which he could only know as the mummy.

That's my two cents.

[Darth Vilus]

Vote EagleFan

Off to work again, oh so fun. AT least it's not really detrimental today, EF is getting lynched for sure. I should be around most of the day tomorrow and fri

[Zinto]

Even if you think EF is the mummy, going somewhere else today makes no sense. Knowing who the mummy is puts us in a much better position to win, since he would be going down in the first go around to the hunter.

[GoldenEagle]

I just feel like we are not making any progress other than the scans. I am also just not sure why he is announcing these scans so early to kill our debate and voting history.

[Zinto]

Well, bhlloy already announced that he was going to scan EF. Everyone probably would have been waiting for him to reveal the results of his scan before really discussing anything. More than likely in a couple of days we will have lots of discussion since both seers will be dead.

[GoldenEagle]

Well, bhlloy already announced that he was going to scan EF. Everyone probably would have been waiting for him to reveal the results of his scan before really discussing anything. More than likely in a couple of days we will have lots of discussion since both seers will be dead.

Right. I just don't see the point of announcing that. The more I think about bhlloy's play, the more suspicious I get. Maybe he is just playing weird but something just not smell right to me.

[Zinto]

I just cannot see a scenario where bhlloy is bad. He had no pressure on him, so there was no reason to reveal when he did. To fake reveal he had to take away his teams nightkill and now he he gave us another baddie since EF has all but revealed that he is a wolf. It just doesn't make sense for him to do.

[mauchow]

As I've said multiple times I'm good either way today. I think if ef is the mummy then we got to believe that simbo is one of the transformed.

[Zinto]

We have to go with Eagle today since there is almost a hundred percent chance that he is bad, with Simbo there is not.

[bhlloy]

What's the harm in announcing it early? What the hell is wrong in a game where we get rid of some wolves first and then you start analysis from day 4 instead of day 2?

You think EF would have forgotten he was a wolf and come on and given you guys the rest of the wolves? You think anybody would have actually voted before I had revealed the result of the scan that everyone knew I was going to make?

If you honestly believe I'm bad at this point, you aren't very smart. I'll be dead tonight anyway so it doesn't make a lot of difference to me but it is slightly annoying. I think I've played a pretty damn good game to this point and I've handed you two bad guys on a plate

[GoldenEagle]

What's the harm in announcing it early? What the hell is wrong in a game where we get rid of some wolves first and then you start analysis from day 4 instead of day 2?

You think EF would have forgotten he was a wolf and come on and given you guys the rest of the wolves? You think anybody would have actually voted before I had revealed the result of the scan that everyone knew I was going to make?

If you honestly believe I'm bad at this point, you aren't very smart. I'll be dead tonight anyway so it doesn't make a lot of difference to me but it is slightly annoying. I think I've played a pretty damn good game to this point and I've handed you two bad guys on a plate

Because what are we going to analyze on day 4? Voting history? Discussion? No and no.

I am not saying that you are bad, it is just something does not add up.

[mauchow]

Bhlloy - should we have a semi coordinated plan for our scans tonight?

[Zinto]

I am leaning towards Mau telling the truth right now. It is tough for me to believe that Simbo got cultist scanned and then picked Eagle on night three, just as bhhloy did. That being said Mau is the king of fake reveals so that is something to keep in mind.

[bhlloy]

Because what are we going to analyze on day 4? Voting history? Discussion? No and no.

I am not saying that you are bad, it is just something does not add up.

OMGZ it will just be like day 1 except with LESS WOLVES. Sound fucking terrible.

[bhlloy]

Bhlloy - should we have a semi coordinated plan for our scans tonight?

I'm not sure about that. I can see an instance where the wolves might use it as a roadmap which of us to kill. I think I'd be OK with me saying who I'm planning to scan seeing as there's very little chance there is no NK tonight and you and Simbo keep your mouth shut (assuming ONE of you is the other seer) but I'd like to hear Danny's opinion on that. Assuming GE is OK with getting the villages opinion of course.

[bhlloy]

DOLA - that is probably what you meant by semi-coordinated of course, rereading your post

[mauchow]

I am leaning towards Mau telling the truth right now. It is tough for me to believe that Simbo got cultist scanned and then picked Eagle on night three, just as bhhloy did. That being said Mau is the king of fake reveals so that is something to keep in mind.

The king of God awful fake reveals you mean. I tried to be as straight forward as possible this time as to not be mistaken. I thought I made the right move and getting the news out there. I guess I could have waited until day 4 but we'd be in same spot regardless - assuming one of us dies tonight.

[bhlloy]

Of course, even Danny isn't confirmed good at this point. So yeah, I think I will be announcing my planned scan in thread at some point. Whoever is the other seer can plan accordingly on the small chance that we both might survive, and even if I don't get to reveal the results there is some small information that can be gathered I think

[mauchow]

DOLA - that is probably what you meant by semi-coordinated of course, rereading your post

Right.

[GoldenEagle]

OMGZ it will just be like day 1 except with LESS WOLVES. Sound fucking terrible.

Setting aside your immaturity for a moment, voting history and discussion is how we piece together the Werewolf puzzle. These are critical elements that are needed in each game the village wins. And the way this game is spawning baddies, there is no way we can be sure if there will be less wolves or not.

[Narcizo]

Bhlloy I can see Golden's point but there's not really any point banging on about it. We could have your scenario plus more discussion and some voting history if you sat on the result yesterday. Today, I doubt it makes any difference once everyone knew you were scanning Eagle I doubt people were going to do much until you came out with the info.

Which is why I don't get mau's play as the seer. We already have a confirmed baddy to lynch today and zero risk that mau would be killed tonight. If nothing else he might have hoped that the wolves would target him for infection.

Anyway, I'm off for now

Vote nightfall

[EagleFan]

Please don't overthink this.

[LoneStarGirl]

I definitely see GE's point, as I was feeling the same way. IF you die tonight Bhhloy then we are back at day one, like you said, and day one is the least fun day of WW. But nothing we can do about it now so no need to argue.

[mauchow]

How are we back to day one? We have info. Good info.

[Passacaglia]

Villager checking in.

[CrimsonFox]

Back's been sore again so I"ve been sleeping a lot. No reason why we should be talking about bhlloy today seeing as he found a bad guy, right? That's the type of discussion for further down the road. Not right after he's found 2 badguys, especially since EF is pretty much claiming to be a badguy.

However his new sig made me laugh.

[CrimsonFox]

Villager checking in.


LOL great day one again. Time for Danny to vote and unvote for everyone again. Nice.

[CrimsonFox]

Please don't overthink this.

But what are you trying to say with this...

[CrimsonFox]

Vote nightfall

Does this mean we can bitch and moan at you now? ;)

[bhlloy]

Bhlloy I can see Golden's point but there's not really any point banging on about it. We could have your scenario plus more discussion and some voting history if you sat on the result yesterday. Today, I doubt it makes any difference once everyone knew you were scanning Eagle I doubt people were going to do much until you came out with the info.



Which I've already acknowledged, but mau could quite easily be a wolf who was planning that fake reveal for day 2, you would never have believed me and before that mess was sorted out it would have been day 5, there would be at least 2 infected in the game and the wolves would have got two NK versus them getting zero so far and us having 1-2 more bad guys on tap just queuing up to get lynched.

It's slightly insulting to get accused of ruining the game, especially from somebody who seems incapable of putting together very good theories about it. But like you say, no sense in banging on about it. All will be revealed shortly and hopefully the village will be in a better position moving forward.

[Raiders Army]

Work is busy. I'll have to vote early tomorrow and let it stick since I probably won't be home until after 9 EDT.

[Simbo Klice]

Uh, does that mean you think neither mauboy or simbo is bad then JAG? I'm on the EF train for now but I hardly think we're taking a low probability guess here if we don't go with him

mau/simbo, whichever one of you is the real seer might want to take a look at JAG after that statement

JAG was almost my N1 target, he will be my N3 Target. Even if he's a Transformed, by process of elimination he could have deduced that EagleFan would be the Mummy and is trying to save him.

[Autumn]

"The figures in these murals seem to be taking one form after another. We have reason to think that this creature, what we thought a normal mummy, can infect another host with its biological essence. With the culture of Wetar dying out thousands of years ago, and the island to remote for casual traffic, it may have been without any hosts to spread itself all this time. But within a day or two it has already somehow spread a portion of itself to a handful of others. I don't think I have to describe what could happen if this being got back to the mainland. Even the slightest bit of its blood seems to be incredibly virile. Professor noticed the complete lack of wildlife when we first arrived at the island. I think we can surmise that this creature has been trying for centuries to escape.

Day 3 Vote Count

EagleFan (14) - Zinto, Danny, JAG, cougarfreak, the jackal, mauboy1, eaglefan, simbo, kwhit, crimsonfox, raiders army, narcizo, bhlloy, darth vilus

nightfall - mauboy1, narcizo

[Simbo Klice]

Please don't overthink this.

I'd kind of think lynching you is the "not trying to get too cute" play. 1 of our seers is trusted, we go with his results. If I were on the outside of this mess, I'd be advocating the same thing.

[Simbo Klice]

I'm not sure about that. I can see an instance where the wolves might use it as a roadmap which of us to kill. I think I'd be OK with me saying who I'm planning to scan seeing as there's very little chance there is no NK tonight and you and Simbo keep your mouth shut (assuming ONE of you is the other seer) but I'd like to hear Danny's opinion on that. Assuming GE is OK with getting the villages opinion of course.

And btw, the infected (who do the killing) can't communicate with the Transformed (or vice versa). If I ping an infected and he decides to kill me, that's another night for you. If I get a Transformed (or the Mummy, though I'm operating under the assumption that it's EF), nothing they can do.

[JAG]

JAG was almost my N1 target, he will be my N3 Target. Even if he's a Transformed, by process of elimination he could have deduced that EagleFan would be the Mummy and is trying to save him.

Do you honestly think that statement is the most suspicious thing we've seen in the past three days? I gave some reasonable explanations why I thought EF was the mummy before anyone else mentioned the possibility. Is that really a great thing to have people think if I'm Transformed and know it to be true (assuming EF wasn't infected)?

But so be it. Since I'm actually trying to figure things out, it would be nice to have additional data I don't know, but I'll just hope you're not the real seer. :)

[bhlloy]

assuming you are clean you should welcome the scan

[Simbo Klice]

What percentage do we have to think that EF is the mummy before we go in another direction? I am guessing about 80%.

I will go ahead and state that i am 90% sure EF is the mummy.

Worst case (and by gut I think the likeliest), EF is the mummy and we should be able to take him out by night five or end of D5 depending on when the hunter kill happens. That takes down the number of bad guys we have to kill to 2 and prevents them from making any new Transformed if we lynch them. Sucks to probably lose our seers, but confirming that info for the hunter is probably worth it, otherwise we're just taking a low probability guess for today.

Actually looking back JAG, I got you and GoldenEagle mixed up here. I actually agreed with your post and thought his was highly suspicious. Maybe I'll keep a lid on where I go tonight, provided that bh announces something.

[JAG]

assuming you are clean you should welcome the scan

No, I should not. What I should welcome is another scan of Evil, which would not be achieved by scanning me. Of course any Evil player would say the same thing, so take that for what it's worth.

[JAG]

bh, while we still have a cleared good out in the open, I thought of an idea that could help make sure our nurse scans don't overlap. We could have you split the player list in half using whatever method you wanted (evens/odds by signup #, alphabetical split, you pick two completely random lists, or whatever other way you can think of), then assign each nurse to a list.

Advantage: No overlapping scans, also if a nurse gets infected, the doctor will know what list of people they can try to cure without overlapping with the nurse (assuming they don't have a cure target already)

Disadvantage: The wolves know the lists they're working from as well.

Just throwing that thought out there if you think it might be useful.

[bhlloy]

I quite like that idea JAG. I'm struggling to see a downside to it, if nobody else pipes up I'll split a list based on who is still in the game in a bit

[bhlloy]

I'm planning on scanning Zinto tonight. Couple reasons in thread, plus I can't go a whole game without putting suspicion on him at least once. As I'm 98% sure I'll be the NK tonight I doubt it matters a whole hell of a lot anyway

[Zinto]

I am surprised it took you this long to be suspicious of me;)

[bhlloy]

lol, exactly. Didn't want you to feel left out

[Zinto]

Well, I would say there is a decent chance you will be alive tomorrow. If EF is anything but the Mummy there will be no nightkill right? Since if he is a transformed then the infected will become a transformed and there will be no nightkill(at least that is what I think happens)

[bhlloy]

Yeah, you are actually right with that. So maybe I should give it a little more thought.

I was thinking of scanning Simbo for a long time, just so we can shed some more light on that situation. That would effectively put an end to that question, as even if Simbo is the cultist he wouldn't have shown up bad in Mau's scan. I may go back in that direction depending on what people think.

[LoneStarGirl]

Vote eagle fan

[bhlloy]

OK, here is my list. I figure there is no harm in this as if somebody comes up with an earth shattering reason why this is a terrible idea, the nurses can just ignore it and nobody will get hurt

Nurse 1:

I EagleFan
IV Zinto
VIII Narcizo
X CrimsonFox
XV Simbo Klice
XVI Passacaglia
XVII Darth Vilus

XIX Cougarfreak
II LoneStarGirl
V Britrock
VII JAG
IX Danny
XI Golden Eagle
XIV Kwhit
XVIII Raiders Army
XX The Jackal
XII Mauboy

Somewhat odd/even with the caveat that I split up Mauboy and Simbo as that situation is probably getting resolved all at once

[Danny]

I dont understand your post

[bhlloy]

ugh, counting fail. try again

Nurse 1:

I EagleFan
IV Zinto
VIII Narcizo
X CrimsonFox
XV Simbo Klice
XVI Passacaglia
XVII Darth Vilus
XIX Cougarfreak

Nurse 2:
II LoneStarGirl
V Britrock
VII JAG
IX Danny
XI Golden Eagle
XIV Kwhit
XVIII Raiders Army
XX The Jackal
XII Mauboy

[bhlloy]

I dont understand your post

how about now?

[bhlloy]

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

[JAG]

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

I don't think it's a good idea. We have him pretty well narrowed down already, whereas there are a lot of people we don't know very much about.

If EF comes up Transformed, I could maybe get behind it though because we'd have a bit more room for error.

[bhlloy]

I guess. It would also be good to eliminate the possibility of mau playing us like fools, because that could be damaging to the village. Lynching a seer would be pretty disastrous and would result in losing at least one scan.

If you feel you have Simbo nailed on as a wolf cool, I think a lot of other people are having second thoughts.

[Simbo Klice]

Danny - while you are around, what do you think about scanning Simbo tonight if I live long enough?

I'd be fine with it of course, but then (even though you're favored to be the NK) if you die it looks bad for me, I know it's a waste, and like JAG just said... I'm kind of narrowed down and the situation will eventually be handled.

I'm going with either JAG or GoldenEagle tonight (and I'll say who as close as I can to daybreak, as long as that's considered ok in terms of etiquette), maybe you should keep quiet about yours in case that draws interest to me instead.