View Full Version : WW CLVII - Ghostbusters - Game Over (result in post 1521)
Danny
03-12-2013, 08:54 PM
Dt is a wolf
Lathum
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
Don't do that.
and now you are back to trying to give cryptic hint, in spite of the fact you already claimed vanilla villager, after previously hinting at a role.
Chubby
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
or not, brit has 2 votes in JAGs summary
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
Dt is a wolf
Nope. Not at all. 100% not a wolf.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
Yeah. I'm not moving my vote.
7 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161), DaddyTorgo (210)
2 mauchow - Chubby (108), Passacaglia (114)
Have not voted: KatyLied
Lathum
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
Dt is a wolf
pretty sure he is.
If you lynch me today just take a close look at him tomorrow
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
and now you are back to trying to give cryptic hint, in spite of the fact you already claimed vanilla villager, after previously hinting at a role.
How is that a cryptic hint? You're reading too much into things Lathum. I'd just rather not die.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 08:55 PM
Wow, 13 out of our 17 players in the thread.
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 08:56 PM
pretty sure he is.
If you lynch me today just take a close look at him tomorrow
LMAO
You mean I actually have you wrong for once?
Nice to know!
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 08:56 PM
If you're a vanilla villager, you are a disposable villager. Somebody dies day 1, it's almost always a villager, it's best if it's not a roled one.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 08:56 PM
And you know that very well.
fontisian
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
Wow, 13 out of our 17 players in the thread.
Watch us all change our votes at the last possible second and end up with a tie anyway.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
Wow, 13 out of our 17 players in the thread.
Deadlines in big games can be a lot of fun.
Chubby
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
unvote mau
vote DT
no ties BS at deadline
Lathum
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
How is that a cryptic hint? You're reading too much into things Lathum. I'd just rather not die.
DT, you have now hinted twice at having a role. If you are a vanilla villager that is a bad move and you would be better suited to just take the medicine.
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
And you know that very well.
And you know very well that I don't like to die on D1, roled or not.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 08:57 PM
Watch us all change our votes at the last possible second and end up with a tie anyway.
*frantically looks for tie vote rule to reread*
Chubby
03-12-2013, 08:58 PM
i don't have a dog in this fight but i think a tie is the worst result out of the 3
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 08:58 PM
DT, you have now hinted twice at having a role. If you are a vanilla villager that is a bad move and you would be better suited to just take the medicine.
And you know if I had a role I wouldn't reveal on D1 and would rather try to push people off me without revealing.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 08:58 PM
Nobody does. But, it happens.
8 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241), Chubby (265)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161), DaddyTorgo (210)
1 mauchow - Passacaglia (114)
Have not voted: KatyLied
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 08:58 PM
At the very least, we've created some interesting movement for Day 1. Should be fun to analyze, especially if we later learn a wolf was on the block.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 08:59 PM
So much CTRL+R...
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 08:59 PM
I'm so waiting for one more massive vote shift...
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:00 PM
And you know very well that I don't like to die on D1, roled or not.
nobodylikes to die day 1, but that doesn't mean you should hint at a role if you don't have one. That is detrimental to the village as a whole
murrayyyyy
03-12-2013, 09:00 PM
posting just to see the time.
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 09:00 PM
Way to fuck up guys.
Still can't believe that swing onto me in the span of 4 minutes based on nothing. That's hella fishy.
Guess you won't find Winston now and you're down to 2 Ghostbusters.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:00 PM
Good god, Coffee Warlord had 50+ posts on Day 1.
I'm afraid that tomorrow Danny will respond, and respond with VIGOR!
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:01 PM
I'm so waiting for one more massive vote shift...
http://thedo.gs/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/PaulMcCarthy_ComplexShit.jpeg
fontisian
03-12-2013, 09:01 PM
nobodylikes to die day 1, but that doesn't mean you should hint at a role if you don't have one. That is detrimental to the village as a whole
Er, why is it detrimental?
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:01 PM
Sigh...
DaddyTorgo
03-12-2013, 09:01 PM
"Wah wah wah...you should have revealed earlier..."
Um no...then I'd be dead anyways before I could even get a scan in to convert Winston for us, so it's no different then if I die without scanning for him, so it's no loss.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:02 PM
Way to fuck up guys.
Still can't believe that swing onto me in the span of 4 minutes based on nothing. That's hella fishy.
Guess you won't find Winston now and you're down to 2 Ghostbusters.
If you seriously are a ghostbuster, and went down without revealing...WTF.
Chubby
03-12-2013, 09:02 PM
why wait til 10pm to say that?
Danny
03-12-2013, 09:02 PM
Sucks if you are telling the truth but I didn't buy you we're vanilla don't know why you claimed that
PackerFanatic
03-12-2013, 09:03 PM
To be fair, with all the crazy swings tonight, I could see why he might want to hold off...although if it's true, it really does suck...
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:03 PM
Way to fuck up guys.
Still can't believe that swing onto me in the span of 4 minutes based on nothing. That's hella fishy.
Guess you won't find Winston now and you're down to 2 Ghostbusters.
You should reveal when we have time to shift off you. Think about it -- keeping you alive for a night allows you the chance to find your target and create another roled good guy. BG protects you on N1, other good guy on N2. You help the village out for at least a couple days if you give us a couple minutes' heads-up.
fontisian
03-12-2013, 09:03 PM
"Wah wah wah...you should have revealed earlier..."
Um no...then I'd be dead anyways before I could even get a scan in to convert Winston for us, so it's no different then if I die without scanning for him, so it's no loss.
But then we'd at least have a chance at lynching a wolf today and the wolves would hit you tonight instead of say another roled player.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:03 PM
Hell, the proton packs sorta protect you for a night, maybe two.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:04 PM
And by "help the village out," I mean maintain the starting number of roled villagers.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:04 PM
You should reveal when we have time to shift off you. Think about it -- keeping you alive for a night allows you the chance to find your target and create another roled good guy. BG protects you on N1, other good guy on N2. You help the village out for at least a couple days if you give us a couple minutes' heads-up.
You mean like you did last game as the seer?
So the correct way to play it isn't to hold onto information, hope to get into a tie, and then have unknown tie logic bail you out?
:confused: :confused: :confused:
Controversial.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:04 PM
All this assuming there's a BG, but even if not, there are proton packs about.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:05 PM
I'm going to assume DT is actually a wolf. Because otherwise I don't think he read the rules carefully.
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:05 PM
I hate it when people give away their role before the GM can do the write up.
It's like a spoiler in a TV thread.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:05 PM
You mean like you did last game as the seer?
So the correct way to play it isn't to hold onto information, hope to get into a tie, and then have unknown tie logic bail you out?
:confused: :confused: :confused:
Controversial.
Trying to detect your tone here; the internet isn't terribly helpful in that regard.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:05 PM
lol, yeah really. if yo'ure not going to reveal before deadline, don't reveal after.
Danny
03-12-2013, 09:06 PM
I agree autumn either a wolf or a really bad misplay with proton packs
You set out today to try and locate the source of the increased psychokinetic activity in the city. Your search takes you to an area of the city that has seen better days. As you pass by a darkened alley, you hear an unusual sound and see a brief flash of light. Carefully one of the Ghostbusters leads the way with their proton pack weapon drawn. They see a sudden movement in the darkness and fire their weapon. A voice screams out for a moment and then lies still. You enter and are horrified to find that you have killed one of your own. The light must have been from his proton pack weapon.
In the commotion, you realize you have lost one of your number. You search and find britrock's body left in an untidy mess on the sidewalk. He appears to have been a citizen of your fair city, but could have been more with the proper training.
DaddyTorgo was Ray Stantz
britrock88 was Winston Zeddmore
Day 2 now begins. D2/N2 deadline is at 10pm EST Wednesday.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:08 PM
Trying to detect your tone here; the internet isn't terribly helpful in that regard.
There tone certainly wasn't meant to be mixed.
You played it correctly last game.
DT congratulated himself quite a bit for his courageous play not revealing a couple of games back, when he was on the block as seer (?) and had tie rules bail him out.
Long and the short, the "right" plays are the "right" plays for a reason, even if the "wrong" play can sometimes be rewarded in the short term.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:08 PM
Right, a reveal in this game works well. Well, I just realized there's not a bodyguard, so not as well as i was thinking. But it forces the wolves to decide whether to waste a night hoping to kill you.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:08 PM
oh &#@#@
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:09 PM
jeez, you at least don't deny that yo'ure hinting at a role, DT. You could have said "I don't want to say what role I have," and let people decide wehther to move off of you and figure you'll get scanned.
PackerFanatic
03-12-2013, 09:10 PM
Ugh...not a good start...
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:10 PM
Sigh...
.
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:10 PM
haha
LOL at that result
Chubby
03-12-2013, 09:10 PM
/shakes head
i don't get the non-reveal there
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:10 PM
Well, guess it is going to be harder to lose two roled villagers in the same night again after this.
Although britrock was reduced to vanilla status when DT bit it, assuming I'm understanding the rules correctly.
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:11 PM
jeez, you at least don't deny that yo'ure hinting at a role, DT. You could have said "I don't want to say what role I have," and let people decide wehther to move off of you and figure you'll get scanned.
yeah, when you start flip flopping back and forth it basically puts the nail in our coffin.
You have to remember we are all working with no info on day 1, had you revealed I would gladly have gone down.
britrock88
03-12-2013, 09:12 PM
Good luck, village.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:16 PM
/shakes head
i don't get the non-reveal there
This.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:16 PM
Well, in an ideal world we had our seer looking at one of the other people who was in the mix for the vote today. Would hope that we can pull logic from the Day 1 commotion as soon as possible.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:17 PM
Anyone want to hazard a guess on "why britrock' for the night kill?
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:19 PM
Well, if we assume for a moment myself, Lathum, and mau are villagers (or even 2 of 3), no way any of us are targeted. We're prime suspects tomorrow.
Hoops and Autumn, I think, are perfectly capable of getting lynched on their own.
The list of targetable villagers get smaller after that.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:21 PM
Just did a quick check of britrock posts, about the best logic I can come up with for offing him in that spot is "make someone else count votes" ... saw nothing that looked like a role reveal, role hint, or a coffee roll.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:25 PM
8 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161)
1 mauchow - Passacaglia (114)
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:26 PM
Just to re-iterate from earlier - really wish I had gotten the Peck/cultist role. If I had, I probably would not have been able to help myself from making weird posts that would weave a map of how I was in fact that character without deliberately getting myself voted out too early.
Might even have inadvertently slipped into Richard Thornberg or Professor Hathaway at some point.
Oh well. Probably better this way.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:27 PM
Oh I misread. I forgot this was a dual deadline, and was thinking that Brit died because DT did. That's not as bad as I thought, phew.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:29 PM
Just did a quick check of britrock posts, about the best logic I can come up with for offing him in that spot is "make someone else count votes" ... saw nothing that looked like a role reveal, role hint, or a coffee roll.
lol, that could be it.
That is a weird kill. It's not like brit is terribly quiet, I know sometimes as a wolf I kill the quiet folks and let the others get themselves lynched.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:29 PM
Ignore my re-post of vote tallies up there. They're off.
murrayyyyy
03-12-2013, 09:30 PM
So voting is okay to start for the next day then? If I read things right the night kill and the vote happen at the same time.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:30 PM
Well, if we want to assume that we had a wolf in the vote from earlier I guess we've got two paths to pursue:
1.) Take our 1/3 shot of it being Lathum/CW/mauchow
2.) Take our shots at the 8 people on DT
As far as the latter strategy goes, I can rule myself out and I won't hold it against Narcizo for getting an early vote in and not being around for deadline. So that leaves six players ... assuming two wolves there, option #1 and option #2 are a push.
So guess I'll twiddle thumbs to see if there is any role information others want to post that will make this easier. Or clever analysis others post that I like better than the above ideas.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:30 PM
But, the whole point of that was, if Lathum isn't a wolf, there's a decent chance that there's a wolf on Lathum. And 2 of the 5 voters on him are clear.
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:31 PM
So voting is okay to start for the next day then? If I read things right the night kill and the vote happen at the same time.
Yep, many games have the "combined deadline" so we're into D2 although our thread title does not yet reflect that.
(cough, cough, get on it JAG)
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:36 PM
But, the whole point of that was, if Lathum isn't a wolf, there's a decent chance that there's a wolf on Lathum. And 2 of the 5 voters on him are clear.
Knowing I am not a wolf this is my thinking. I really don't like Autumns vote. He is a pretty active player, yet he buries his vote on me early, then leaves it there. Seems like he isn't trying to draw attention to himself, while casting a vote on someone who is a god lynch candidate.
Vote Autumn.
Coffee Warlord
03-12-2013, 09:38 PM
THOUGH.
That might be why brit died, to make us suspect there's a wolf in that pile!
The plot. It doth thicken.
mauchow
03-12-2013, 09:40 PM
Well that is a shit result.
And I dunno why I'm being singled out for the switch to dt. I may have started the run but I only count as one vote.
murrayyyyy
03-12-2013, 09:47 PM
Well might as well get this out there early. Lathum jumps to the head of the class for me. He is on the dead body. Both the guys who voted for him are dead after D1. In fact all 3 guys who survived with a vote were on the dead body. I tend to think the coffee/lathum/mau trio has a wolf if not two.
vote lathum
Also for those who play a lot... Lathum said he would have laid down for DT if he revealed. After two games with him, I don't believe him. (sorry Lathum). Why should I?
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:47 PM
Well that is a shit result.
And I dunno why I'm being singled out for the switch to dt. I may have started the run but I only count as one vote.
Who singled you out?
mauchow
03-12-2013, 09:49 PM
Who singled you out?
Without going back I believe it was hoops and PF maybe? DT did too but he's not around anymore so that was just purely defensive.
mauchow
03-12-2013, 09:50 PM
I'm off to bed, I'll catch up with the last two pages in the morning. Fuckin exhausted with son being sick and holding Leah.
Lathum
03-12-2013, 09:50 PM
Well might as well get this out there early. Lathum jumps to the head of the class for me. He is on the dead body. Both the guys who voted for him are dead after D1. In fact all 3 guys who survived with a vote were on the dead body. I tend to think the coffee/lathum/mau trio has a wolf if not two.
vote lathum
Also for those who play a lot... Lathum said he would have laid down for DT if he revealed. After two games with him, I don't believe him. (sorry Lathum). Why should I?
So of the 3 people you listed you choose to vote the one whose head was on the chopping block? Don't you think I was forced into voting DT to stay alive? What else should I have done ?
As for laying down, if DT had revealed his role I would have moved my vote. Unless I was a wolf
hoopsguy
03-12-2013, 09:53 PM
Without going back I believe it was hoops and PF maybe? DT did too but he's not around anymore so that was just purely defensive.
Nah, haven't singled you out. I am suggesting that we look at the D1 votes, but that is only with hope that we didn't have four villagers on the blocks for today.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:55 PM
Knowing I am not a wolf this is my thinking. I really don't like Autumns vote. He is a pretty active player, yet he buries his vote on me early, then leaves it there. Seems like he isn't trying to draw attention to himself, while casting a vote on someone who is a god lynch candidate.
Vote Autumn.
I'm active, usually at least, but I don't typically jump my vote around. You were still in the thick of things, I don't see any reason to move my vote and consolidate when I have no idea who might be the wolf among the group. I wasn't around right at deadline, but I don't think I would have moved anyway.
Autumn
03-12-2013, 09:57 PM
I don't see enough info from the vote to tell me who to vote yet though. I believe we've got three wolves, so I don't think we've narrowed things down enough to just vote by numbers. The wolves could have mostly been off the main candidates, or one off the main, and two on DT, or all three on Lathum ;-) No real good odds voting that way I do'nt think. I'll be looking at posts instead.
bhlloy
03-12-2013, 10:31 PM
I dunno, I find it suspicious that we have late movement off a couple candidates and we seem to be drifting in the direction of just assuming they aren't wolves and let's look elsewhere.
I didn't like Lathum's play at all yesterday, and if he's not a wolf then we learn a lot about the voters on him. But let's find out if he's a wolf first.
Mau's also jumping to defend himself when there's no heat on him at all. I'd be fine with finding out where he stands today as well. But Lathum's my #1 candidate.
vote Lathum
bhlloy
03-12-2013, 10:36 PM
Also, you have to reveal DT. Have to. Even if you get NK'd and don't get a scan in, that's an extra kill the wolves don't get to make. And maybe you get lucky and get an inattentive wolf team. A reveal ten minutes before deadline probably saves you with the number of people in thread.
bhlloy
03-13-2013, 12:59 AM
Thinking about this a little more before I get some sleep, I do wonder that the britrock kill isn't meant to frame Lathum. Possibly to move heat off Mau or just to have us running in the wrong direction. Hmmm
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 01:14 AM
Thinking about this a little more before I get some sleep, I do wonder that the britrock kill isn't meant to frame Lathum. Possibly to move heat off Mau or just to have us running in the wrong direction. Hmmm
I debated that but only one way to find out...
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:28 AM
Ah OK. So this still happens does it?
Knee-jerk reaction is that I think we have to look at the people who voted DT late. I thought his play indicated wolf or roled and the wolves knew he wasn't wolf so they'd be very interested in voting him.
Of course it's hard to blame anyone for sticking a day one vote on him given the quasi-reveal/hint things. Annoyingly I was going to suggest Venkman out and out revealing today as it's doubtful the wolves would risk a wasted night kill just to take out the duke but with only two ghostbusters left I don't think we can go that route. Anyway I believe it is time for the narcalysis.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:05 AM
Day One
20:43 #46 Lathum votes Autumn (1)
20:51 #49 Coffee votes Danny (1)
02:35 #57 Narcizo votes DaddyTorgo (1)
09:30 #68 Autumn votes Lathum (1)
09:43 #69 Britrock votes Chubby (1)
11:05 #75 Packer votes Autumn (2)
11:15 #76 Bhlloy votes Packer (1)
11:43 #82 murrayyyyy votes Coffee (1)
12:34 #85 mauchow votes Danny (2)
12:47 #89 Danny votes Lathum (2)
13:09 #91 Coffee unvotes Danny (1)
13:34 #95 Hoops votes DaddyTorgo (2)
14:13 #99 Coffee votes Packers (2)
14:32 #108 Chubby votes Mau (1)
15:54 #114 Pass votes Mau (2)
15:58 #119 Coffee unvotes Packers (1)
15:58 #119 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (3)
15:59 #120 mau unvotes Danny (0)
16:07 #127 Mau votes Coffee (2)
16:15 #129 fontisian votes Lathum (3)
17:18 #134 britrock unvotes Chubby (0)
17:18 #134 britrock votes Coffee (3)
17:24 #137 Lathum unvotes Autumn (1)
17:24 #137 Lathum votes mau (3)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy unvotes Packers (0)
17:46 #139 Bhlloy votes Lathum (4)
17:53 #140 Lathum unvotes Mau (2)
17:53 #140 Lathum votes Coffee (4)
18:04 #146 Coffee unvotes DaddyTorgo (2)
18:04 #146 Coffee votes mau (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum unvotes Coffee (3)
18:31 #150 Lathum votes mau (4)
18:53 #160 Packer unvotes Autumn (0)
18:53 #161 Packers votes Coffee (4)
19:22 #171 Zinto votes Lathum (5)
19:58 #182 Mau unvotes Coffee (3)
19:58 #182 Mau votes DaddyTorgo (3)
20:00 #187 Danny unvotes Lathum (4)
20:00 #187 Danny votes DaddyTorgo (4)
20:02 #189 Lathum unvotes Mau (3)
20:02 #189 Lathum votes DaddyTorgo (5)
20:05 #199 DaddyTorgo votes Lathum (5)
20:28 #208 Coffee unvotes mau (2)
20:28 #208 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (6)
20:29 #210 Daddy unvotes Lathum (4)
20:29 #210 Daddy votes Coffee (4)
20:50 #232 Brit unvotes Coffee (3)
20:50 #232 Brit votes Lathum (5)
20:50 #233 Daddy unvotes Coffee (2)
20:50 #233 Daddy votes Lathum (6)
20:53 #241 Zinto unvotes Lathum (5)
20:53 #241 Zinto votes Daddy (7)
20:57 #265 Chubby unvotes mau (1)
20:57 #265 Chubby votes Daddy (8)
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:09 AM
Day One Tally:
8 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241), Chubby (265)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161)
1 mauchow - Passacaglia (114)
No Vote: Katylied
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:12 AM
Anyone want to hazard a guess on "why britrock' for the night kill?
Anytime Danny or you aren't the night one kill it makes me think that one of you is a wolf and you don't want to announce it.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:29 AM
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), Danny (89), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), Zinto (171)
4 mauchow - Chubby (108), Passacaglia (114), Coffee Warlord (146), Lathum (150)
4 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), mauchow (127), britrock (134), PackerFanatic (161)
2 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95)
Have not voted: DaddyTorgo, KatyLied
That is post #173
I'm interested in hearing from mau why, when he was in joint second place with Coffee, he took his vote off of Coffee and put it elsewhere. Strikes me as a ballsy move as he risks narrowing the field down to two candidates - one of whom is himself. All it needed was for someone to vote you at that stage and you'd be in trouble. Lathum might like to explain why he hopped onto DT as well.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:45 AM
Not seeing the wolfy vibe from Lathum apart from the "verrry innnteresting" post which seemed a bit passive-aggressive. Then again I don't really get a good read on Lathum - although he does seem to have calmed down since the last time I played. As a whole I'm not fantastically excited at the prospect of chasing the number two vote getter from day one today. You can wind up driving down a blind alley and getting nowhere.
I need to reread posts trying to ignore the Mau-Daddy-Coffee-Lathum interactions. See who's trying to glide through.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 04:54 AM
Were you around at deadline Bhlloy?
Lathum 2 - murra5y (329), bhlloy (337)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (326)
Lathum
03-13-2013, 05:10 AM
Lathum might like to explain why he hopped onto DT as well.
I was moving to anyone I thought would keep me alive. Once DT starts waffling around it makes it a no brainer.
Knowing I am a villager I am starting to wonder if there were some late wolves on DT given the fact he hinted at having a role. They would have known he wasn't a wolf, so would be a pretty good target to try and nail a rolled villager.
Lathum
03-13-2013, 05:13 AM
Unvote Mau
Vote DT
Well I am not looking for a tie so..
Unvote Lathum
Vote DT
unvote mau
vote DT
no ties BS at deadline
people who switched to DT after his I'm just a villager/you really don't want to vote me episode....
I would like to know why these 3 switched from me to DT.
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 05:51 AM
It looks like only one of them switched from you to DT. The other two switched from mau to DT.
Lathum
03-13-2013, 06:01 AM
It looks like only one of them switched from you to DT. The other two switched from mau to DT.
regardless, they chose to switch onto DT opposed to me. Wondering why that is.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 06:07 AM
Anytime Danny or you aren't the night one kill it makes me think that one of you is a wolf and you don't want to announce it.
With this logic, I would suggest voting for Danny. Of course, I would say that as wolf or villager ... assuming I wasn't in a mood to argue against the original statement. Which I'm not this morning.
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 06:49 AM
So you're saying you do want to announce it?
mauchow
03-13-2013, 07:01 AM
That is post #173
I'm interested in hearing from mau why, when he was in joint second place with Coffee, he took his vote off of Coffee and put it elsewhere. Strikes me as a ballsy move as he risks narrowing the field down to two candidates - one of whom is himself. All it needed was for someone to vote you at that stage and you'd be in trouble. Lathum might like to explain why he hopped onto DT as well.
I basically tried what Lathum and CW just tried on me an hour earlier. They followed surprisingly, and so did others. I never expected a complete reversal like that.
Chubby
03-13-2013, 07:30 AM
Was I not clear in my post you quoted? (Or the post after that). I didn't want a tie, my vote on mau was doing nothing. I stated after that vote post that I didn't have an opinion on either of you 2.
Id like to get some pressure on CW as he was up and then the run narrowed it to 2 away from him
vote coffee
I teach class today so ill be around 10ish-2ish and then again when I get home
Chubby
03-13-2013, 07:42 AM
Lathum - would you have preferred I voted you and made it DT +1 (and open to a tie)?
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 07:43 AM
people who switched to DT after his I'm just a villager/you really don't want to vote me episode....
I would like to know why these 3 switched from me to DT.
I'm the one who called out DT in the first place on that. I reloaded a couple times to see if DT had a quick response, he didn't, I switched votes. Amusingly, the only vote I made yesterday that was halfway serious.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 07:50 AM
Besides, Lathum. We had a deal, man! It was notorized and everything! What are we if not men of our word?
..though I still woulda iced you if there was a tie. Or if DT had freakin' revealed.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 07:54 AM
I'm gonna go in on my earlier guesstimate that there was a wolf ending on Lathum last night.
Autumn, font, and bhlloy.
Though completely logical means, I deduce I can only vote for one of them. I'm not feeling it for Autumn just yet, font merely put a second on him during a crazy day. Which leaves me with the man whose name cannot be pronounced by mortal men.
Vote bhlloy
Lathum
03-13-2013, 07:55 AM
Lathum - would you have preferred I voted you and made it DT +1 (and open to a tie)?
I have no prefrence other than me not dying, since hindsight is 20/20, just trying to get some conversation going about the votes yesterday
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 08:02 AM
Day One
20:00 #187 Danny unvotes Lathum (4)
20:00 #187 Danny votes DaddyTorgo (4)
20:02 #189 Lathum unvotes Mau (3)
20:02 #189 Lathum votes DaddyTorgo (5)
20:05 #199 DaddyTorgo votes Lathum (5)
20:28 #208 Coffee unvotes mau (2)
20:28 #208 Coffee votes DaddyTorgo (6)
20:29 #210 Daddy unvotes Lathum (4)
20:29 #210 Daddy votes Coffee (4)
20:50 #232 Brit unvotes Coffee (3)
20:50 #232 Brit votes Lathum (5)
20:50 #233 Daddy unvotes Coffee (2)
20:50 #233 Daddy votes Lathum (6)
20:53 #241 Zinto unvotes Lathum (5)
20:53 #241 Zinto votes Daddy (7)
20:57 #265 Chubby unvotes mau (1)
20:57 #265 Chubby votes Daddy (8)
I think the thoughts of a wolf in the Coffee/Zinto/Chubby group make the most sense...Danny's is early enough and it was still very undecided at that point (although that could be his ploy). I can give Lathum a pass at this point since it was mainly out of self-defense. That leaves CW (who pushed DT up, albeit half hour before deadline), Zinto (who broke the tie and put DT up) and Chubby (who added one for good measure right at the end). I will wait to see what more comes of today, but I think my vote will be in that group.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 08:04 AM
I dunno, I find it suspicious that we have late movement off a couple candidates and we seem to be drifting in the direction of just assuming they aren't wolves and let's look elsewhere.
I didn't like Lathum's play at all yesterday, and if he's not a wolf then we learn a lot about the voters on him. But let's find out if he's a wolf first.
Mau's also jumping to defend himself when there's no heat on him at all. I'd be fine with finding out where he stands today as well. But Lathum's my #1 candidate.
I must have missed the drift towards none of them being wolf. And what do we learn if Lathum is a villager? That we should then look at mau? And if he's a villager then we should look at Coffee? If he's a villager then it's day five and the wolves have as good as/have won. Lathum's started to ping me a bit (when it's pretty clear why Coffee, Zinto and Chubby had moved their votes) - but he's playing like I remember him as a villager. I think a wolf Lathum is a bit more careful and also doesn't burn off a fake reveal by claiming vanilla so early.
Of the three being mentioned together I think I like mau most as a wolf. At the moment I'd like to look elsewhere. If Lath is a villager then it looks pretty good for Zinto. If there are only three wolves I don't think you're going to see any major orchestrated plan - if anything I think you're just as likely to see wolves voting wolves as anything else or, more likely, wolves avoiding the spotlight altogether.
In an attempt to widen our voting records.
Vote Bhlloy
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 08:05 AM
Hah! That will teach me to take over 15 minutes to write a post.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 08:07 AM
I'm gonna go in on my earlier guesstimate that there was a wolf ending on Lathum last night.
Autumn, font, and bhlloy.
Though completely logical means, I deduce I can only vote for one of them. I'm not feeling it for Autumn just yet, font merely put a second on him during a crazy day. Which leaves me with the man whose name cannot be pronounced by mortal men.
Vote bhlloy
Well, technically it leaves you with the man whose name cannot be pronounced and fontsian. So there must have been something that steered you to one versus the other?
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 08:10 AM
I must have missed the drift towards none of them being wolf. And what do we learn if Lathum is a villager? That we should then look at mau? And if he's a villager then we should look at Coffee? If he's a villager then it's day five and the wolves have as good as/have won. Lathum's started to ping me a bit (when it's pretty clear why Coffee, Zinto and Chubby had moved their votes) - but he's playing like I remember him as a villager. I think a wolf Lathum is a bit more careful and also doesn't burn off a fake reveal by claiming vanilla so early.
Of the three being mentioned together I think I like mau most as a wolf. At the moment I'd like to look elsewhere. If Lath is a villager then it looks pretty good for Zinto. If there are only three wolves I don't think you're going to see any major orchestrated plan - if anything I think you're just as likely to see wolves voting wolves as anything else or, more likely, wolves avoiding the spotlight altogether.
In an attempt to widen our voting records.
Vote Bhlloy
So Bhlloy with the notion that he is protecting mauchow?
Why is mau more likely a wolf than CW?
If you think mauchow is more likely a wolf (I know, relative term) then why vote for bhlloy in this spot?
Just trying to figure out the logic here ... normally I don't have as difficult a time following your train of thought, but maybe its just early here.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 08:10 AM
Re-read that, hoops. I give a minor shout out to font in there.
Though to answer your question anyway. No, not really. I'm basically guessing between the three. But, if you'd like, I'll go find a post of his that clearly shows his grammatical stylings are 85% more consistent with games he's played as a wolf and not a villager.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 08:11 AM
More that I'd be expecting a villager Bhlloy to vote DaddyTorgo around the point Zinto did. Of course, if he wasn't here then that argument goes out of the window.
Nothing to do with mau really.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 08:16 AM
Oh! And he was anxious that we didn't see yesterday as villager-villager, making him a better potential source of information. If he's a wolf then it seems likely that Lathum and possibly mau are villagers.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 08:39 AM
Lots of folks here, but not a whole lot of conversation.
15 minutes out - Autumn, Chubby, CW, DT, Fontsian, Lathum, mauchow, murra5y, PF (and hoopsguy)
Posting for posterity when we're analyzing this vote and night results go up that may account for late-breaking action.
bhlloy wasn't here at the 15 minute mark, FWIW.
I was thinking about voting bhlloy as well, but I hadn't quite figured out why I was drifting in that direction. So I found it curious that you + CW were on the same candidate. For reasons that I'm pretty sure were not my own, even if I haven't quite sorted out why I was thinking about voting for him.
bhlloy 2 - Coffee Warlord (360), Narcizo (363)
Lathum 2 - murra5y (329), bhlloy (337)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (326)
Coffee Warlord 1 - Chubby (356)
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 08:44 AM
Well, if all 3 of us are thinking bhlloy at the same time, for different reasons, he's probably the seer.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 08:50 AM
Well, if all 3 of us are thinking bhlloy at the same time, for different reasons, he's probably the seer.
You were not supposed to say that out loud in the thread.
Now he's dead.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 08:52 AM
I dunno. Can we really trust a man who collects molds, spores, and fungus?
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 08:56 AM
I dunno. Can we really trust a man who collects molds, spores, and fungus?
This isn't your game, where all the good roles can get converted every night. So yes.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 08:59 AM
Low blow!
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 09:17 AM
Ah OK. So this still happens does it?
Knee-jerk reaction is that I think we have to look at the people who voted DT late. I thought his play indicated wolf or roled and the wolves knew he wasn't wolf so they'd be very interested in voting him.
Of course it's hard to blame anyone for sticking a day one vote on him given the quasi-reveal/hint things. Annoyingly I was going to suggest Venkman out and out revealing today as it's doubtful the wolves would risk a wasted night kill just to take out the duke but with only two ghostbusters left I don't think we can go that route. Anyway I believe it is time for the narcalysis.
Slimer would certainly be interested in knowing who Venkman is.
Neutral:
Slimer - He's looking for Venkman to, you guessed it, slime him. More of a mischievous ghost than a malevolent one. Note that Slimer scans as paranormal to Egon's PKE meter.
Only way I think that would make sense, given the use of the proton packs this game, would be with four ghostbusters in hand. And even then I don't think it makes a ton of sense. As you noted, with two left it is folly.
Autumn
03-13-2013, 09:45 AM
Day One Tally:
8 DaddyTorgo - Narcizo (57), hoopsguy (95), mauchow (182), Danny (187), Lathum (189), Coffee Warlord (208), Zinto (241), Chubby (265)
5 Lathum - Autumn (68), fontisian (129), bhlloy (139), britrock88 (232), DaddyTorgo (233)
2 Coffee Warlord - murra5y (82), PackerFanatic (161)
1 mauchow - Passacaglia (114)
No Vote: Katylied
I would be interested in seeing one of our outliers involved in the vote today -- murray PF, Pass, Katylied. I think D2 is a day to make sure everyone that wasn't really involved D1 in the vote gets involved. Now, I haven't gone back to get reasons for their votes being where they were or analyzing posts. I'm picking on them.
<b>VOTE PASSACAGLIA</b>
Autumn
03-13-2013, 09:51 AM
I've had a lot of school work the past couple days, so been out of it a bit. I'm hoping to be more involved today.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 09:57 AM
How does mau swing 4 votes onto me in 4 minutes with basically no facts at all on D1?
When I'm dead, why don't the rest of you villagers ask yourselves that question hmm? Something's rotten in NYC...
Going back to this...and I think others have mentioned it too (even I have to a point with my group of three I mentioned earlier). There has gotta be at least one wolf in that quick-moving group, right?
Lathum
03-13-2013, 10:00 AM
Going back to this...and I think others have mentioned it too (even I have to a point with my group of three I mentioned earlier). There has gotta be at least one wolf in that quick-moving group, right?
It is hard to say.
I know I am a villager, so the wolves would know we were villager-villager, bud did they switch to DT thinking he had a role is the question.
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 10:02 AM
Wow, I didn't realize I ended up being the only one on mau. I guess that makes sense, since I saw someone mention that 13 of the 17 people were on at deadline. Kudos to all who were there for making sure there votes were relevant, and sorry I couldn't. I should have mentioned this from the get-go, but I will not be on at deadline very often, since that's my study time, and I really need to study. But hey, at the time, my vote for mau was as relevant as it could be.
But I'm with you. It sounds like Everyone's Gone to the Movies, except for one of us.
VOTE KATYLIED
Autumn
03-13-2013, 10:07 AM
Going back to this...and I think others have mentioned it too (even I have to a point with my group of three I mentioned earlier). There has gotta be at least one wolf in that quick-moving group, right?
I don't think D2 you can make any guesses like that. It's something to keep an eye on, but i think it's too early to say stuff like that. I think it just gets us focused on knocking off a short list of people and possibly going nowhere.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 10:27 AM
Maybe we will learn more from that tonight - but definitely something to keep in mind as we go through the day.
Autumn
03-13-2013, 10:34 AM
I could see several scenarios. We could assume there must be a wolf on Lathum. We could assume there must be one or two on DT. Or we could assume at least one wolf is hiding out in the other votes. I don't think we have any way of knowing which is which at this point, not until we know more about the allegiance of the "suspects". I'm voting in the "others" simply because I think the first few days we have to flush everybody out into the open and make sure we get good data on everybody.
bhlloy
03-13-2013, 10:41 AM
Going back to this...and I think others have mentioned it too (even I have to a point with my group of three I mentioned earlier). There has gotta be at least one wolf in that quick-moving group, right?
Yup. It's pretty concerning to me that we have that much movement (even if it is day 1) and we don't really seem that interested in it. So be it.
unvote Lathum
vote Mau
Mau and CW are my two top candidates for today. Both fell off after the movement into DT yesterday. I feel better about Lathum after thinking about the britrock kill some more
bhlloy
03-13-2013, 10:49 AM
More that I'd be expecting a villager Bhlloy to vote DaddyTorgo around the point Zinto did. Of course, if he wasn't here then that argument goes out of the window.
Nothing to do with mau really.
I'm not sure if I was around or not but most us seemed to be fine with a tie and now I am being knocked for not moving off candidate #2 onto candidate #1 close to deadline? OK I guess
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 10:50 AM
Most of us were fine with a tie? Who?
bhlloy
03-13-2013, 11:03 AM
Search doesn't work on my phone but that was the perception I got earlier in the game
Interestingly enough going back I did see post 122 by narc that we should keep it a three or four horse race right until the end. And now I'm being marked down for not jumping to DT
mauchow
03-13-2013, 12:07 PM
My vote onto DT created an interesting last hour, thats for certain. I regret making the switch in hindsight, of course. From my perspective I definitely see it as a way for the wolves and other uncertain villagers to hop on the popular train of voting DT and have an excuse to stay on (non-reveal). I and many others likely make the move off DT if he reveals, simple as that.
I do believe a wolf was being saved in one of CW and Lathum..thats my gut feeling as of now without anything else to go on.
vote coffee warlord
Yup. It's pretty concerning to me that we have that much movement (even if it is day 1) and we don't really seem that interested in it. So be it.
unvote Lathum
vote Mau
Mau and CW are my two top candidates for today. Both fell off after the movement into DT yesterday. I feel better about Lathum after thinking about the britrock kill some more
You feel better about lathum then I do. I can understand the vote on me. However, you said earlier that I didn't have any pressure to switch which is actually incorrect. Momentum had begun switching my way already so I tried making a vote switch and people followed. They should be the ones being looked at once we hopefully find something with lathum/CW.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 12:08 PM
Difference between wanting a close race till late (which is usually a good thing) and wanting to risk a tie (which is not).
mauchow
03-13-2013, 12:12 PM
Difference between wanting a close race till late (which is usually a good thing) and wanting to risk a tie (which is not).
Exactly. Hoops merely suggested if someone was going to create a tie you damn well better be ready to explain yourself.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 12:12 PM
I will once again point out my vote switch to DT occured when DT went from hinting at a role to claiming vanilla villager. I called him out on that and switched. The fact that you led a charge had a whole lot of nothing to do with why I personally switched - I'da voted on him after his flip-flopping no matter how few/many votes he had.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 12:23 PM
I will once again point out my vote switch to DT occured when DT went from hinting at a role to claiming vanilla villager. I called him out on that and switched. The fact that you led a charge had a whole lot of nothing to do with why I personally switched - I'da voted on him after his flip-flopping no matter how few/many votes he had.
Yeah I get where you're coming from too.
So everyone knows, I have contacted KatyLied to confirm she is still intending to play as I have not seen her post since the game has started. If I don't hear back from her by deadline, I will try to find a replacement. If anyone that is reading along but not part of the game is interested in being a backup just in case, please send me a message. Thanks.
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 12:30 PM
Fair enough.
UNVOTE KATYLIED
britrock88
03-13-2013, 12:38 PM
Ultra-lurker.
Danny
03-13-2013, 01:02 PM
Also, you have to reveal DT. Have to. Even if you get NK'd and don't get a scan in, that's an extra kill the wolves don't get to make. And maybe you get lucky and get an inattentive wolf team. A reveal ten minutes before deadline probably saves you with the number of people in thread.
With the number of people on, I bet a 3 minute minute prior to deadline reveal saves him.
Danny
03-13-2013, 01:08 PM
With this logic, I would suggest voting for Danny. Of course, I would say that as wolf or villager ... assuming I wasn't in a mood to argue against the original statement. Which I'm not this morning.
If Hoops is the wolf, I appreciate him not killing me yet.
Zinto
03-13-2013, 01:11 PM
people who switched to DT after his I'm just a villager/you really don't want to vote me episode....
I would like to know why these 3 switched from me to DT.
I went that way because with ten minutes left and I did not want a tie. Momentum had swung towards DT at that point and I figured there was not a good chance that someone would take their vote off of DT and vote for you, so I decided to move my vote.
Danny
03-13-2013, 01:15 PM
vote coffee warlord
I dont think Lathum is a wolf.
Danny
03-13-2013, 01:16 PM
Honestly, I do not like this line of thinking that wolves would risk a late switch from Lathum to DT if both are villagers. In that case I think wolves stick with their vote. I think the late switchers (not necessarily late voters) are less likely to be wolves if Lathum is a villager.
bhlloy
03-13-2013, 01:21 PM
Yes i agree with that Danny. If Lathum is a villager those late switches look pretty good. I'm more interested in the earlier push that seems to take CW and Mau off the table.
Obviously this is contingent on Lathum not being a wolf in the first place
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 01:22 PM
Well lets do a midday switch since I said I liked two early and one seems to be the favorite of the group.
unvote Lathum
vote Coffee Warlord
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:24 PM
Sweet, a few more votes and we can raise the white smoke!
Coffee Warlord 4 - Chubby (356), mauchow (390), Danny (401), murra5y (404)
bhlloy 2 - Coffee Warlord (360), Narcizo (363)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (326)
mauchow 1 - bhlloy (386)
Passacaglia 1 - Autumn (378)
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:28 PM
Well lets do a midday switch since I said I liked two early and one seems to be the favorite of the group.
unvote Lathum
vote Coffee Warlord
You were on me and stayed on me yesterday, too, well after the votes had moved elsewhere. Hmm.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 01:30 PM
I hate to push him up by 3 at this point, but he fits into my group I was looking at earlier.
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 01:33 PM
That's quite the pile onto Coffee. I think he's a decent candidate - a lot of what he was saying yesterday seemed a bit like he was playing to the gallery. But I can't fault his vote. Given the fact that it was day one I'd have done the same thing.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:34 PM
I'm seriously curious how I fit into this supposed that is leading towards a big run here.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:34 PM
supposed group, that is.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:36 PM
Me, play to the gallery? MADNESS!
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 01:41 PM
I hate to push him up by 3 at this point, but he fits into my group I was looking at earlier.
VOTE COFFEE WARLORD
Really? And you don't think you could at least push one of your other candidates and make there two from your group on the block? Having any candidate who hasn't been outed by a seer up three at this stage just seems ridiculous, and probably ensures a two-horse race which is a rubbish situation for the village to put itself in.
I'm surprised at how readily Lathum was dropped as a candidate. Looks like finding an easy candidate rather than anything else.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:44 PM
Well lets do a midday switch since I said I liked two early and one seems to be the favorite of the group.
unvote Lathum
vote Coffee Warlord
The more I think about it, the less I like this vote here.
D1 - Murray left his vote on me yesterday. He threw his vote on a villager who had a vote or two at that point. As I got a few more votes, more the better - he was in early enough. As the votes shifted, he stayed put - I still had a couple people on me, and odds are the people moving to DT would be scrutinized more. Safe play.
D2 - Middway switch to the same person, who already has several votes, and provide zero insight as to why. Get in early, you can easily defend yourself "he looked bad - look at all the other voters!", keep your defensible voting record.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 01:45 PM
You were on me and stayed on me yesterday, too, well after the votes had moved elsewhere. Hmm.
Yeah, I figured you and Lathum were doing too much stage chatter to be innocent. So it was a coin flip with my D2 vote last night and switched over to you today. Nothing wrong with going with my first guess yesterday again.
And seriously, why are there 2 R's in Starrcade?
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 01:47 PM
Really? And you don't think you could at least push one of your other candidates and make there two from your group on the block? Having any candidate who hasn't been outed by a seer up three at this stage just seems ridiculous, and probably ensures a two-horse race which is a rubbish situation for the village to put itself in.
Yes yes yes, wtf. Also, bhlloy's vote can move to CW, if he needs to save himself, so it's kind of a 3.5 vote lead.
Let's try to keep three involved.
VOTE MAUCHOW
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 01:55 PM
Really? And you don't think you could at least push one of your other candidates and make there two from your group on the block? Having any candidate who hasn't been outed by a seer up three at this stage just seems ridiculous, and probably ensures a two-horse race which is a rubbish situation for the village to put itself in.
I'm surprised at how readily Lathum was dropped as a candidate. Looks like finding an easy candidate rather than anything else.
But I don't like anyone else! :)
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 01:55 PM
The more I think about it, the less I like this vote here.
D1 - Murray left his vote on me yesterday. He threw his vote on a villager who had a vote or two at that point. As I got a few more votes, more the better - he was in early enough. As the votes shifted, he stayed put - I still had a couple people on me, and odds are the people moving to DT would be scrutinized more. Safe play.
D2 - Middway switch to the same person, who already has several votes, and provide zero insight as to why. Get in early, you can easily defend yourself "he looked bad - look at all the other voters!", keep your defensible voting record.
D1 - Well it can be seen as a safe play... or a right play. the guy who had voted for you (according to 206) and jumped on Lathum, then got night killed. Coincidence, maybe but there isn't much else to go off of right now.
D2 - (In 329) I still had you on my short list with Mau and Latham. I think the quote I saw from people was put on some early pressure to see how I squirm. Guess it's time for me to watch for a squirm.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 01:56 PM
Really? And you don't think you could at least push one of your other candidates and make there two from your group on the block? Having any candidate who hasn't been outed by a seer up three at this stage just seems ridiculous, and probably ensures a two-horse race which is a rubbish situation for the village to put itself in.
I'm surprised at how readily Lathum was dropped as a candidate. Looks like finding an easy candidate rather than anything else.
Ding ding ding. I'm not sure I see why increasing a lead is a good thing at this point in the day.
And yes, I too am curious why there are no lathum voters. I think bhlloy was on him early then switched to me for feeling better about lathum after some thinking on the brit kill. Not sure what group of wolves would kill any of the candidates last night... so that logic doesn't sound right at this point.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 01:56 PM
D2 above was in reference to me being stacked last game. Not this game obviously. I forget who but some stated the last hour votes for me were to see how I'd react.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 01:59 PM
Well, when you decide to pile onto one candidate in the middle of the day, you're not going to get much squirming.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 02:00 PM
Besides, I already peed out my morning coffee. No squirming necessary.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 02:00 PM
unvote CW
vote Lathum
My afternoon is a little busier but I will still be able to check in throughout the evening and I will without a doubt have zero issue being around deadline.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 02:04 PM
Well, when you decide to pile onto one candidate in the middle of the day, you're not going to get much squirming.
Depends on how many people move their votes later... Don't expect to see anything this early. Especially if main characters reveal at 10:01 PM like last night.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 02:05 PM
Besides, I already peed out my morning coffee. No squirming necessary.
Plus who said the squirm would come from you... I thought there were multiple wolves still alive.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:09 PM
Meh!
I remember why I find werewolf tough now. I don't know what to think. In these circumstances I tend to think it's villager chasing villager, creating havoc and the wolves not doing much of anything. I'm trying to give murrayyyyy some leeway for being new but I'm really not liking his actions today.
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 02:11 PM
Wait, what did murrayyyyy do? PF's vote seems like the crazier one.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 02:12 PM
So...your line of thinking.
You want to encourage movement later by voting me now. I'd rather have discussion all day as much as possible. Doesn't work as well when one candidate has a big lead.
You expect the wolves to squirm. When they already have an advantage right now (with Ray & Winston dead). When they still have their full number and can, theoretically, still convert. I'd totally sacrifice a wolf to look good if need be in this position.
Not a great line of thinking in my book.
Danny
03-13-2013, 02:17 PM
unvote coffee
Vote packerfanatic
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:21 PM
Wait, what did murrayyyyy do? PF's vote seems like the crazier one.
Don't like how he came out swinging at Lathum and then switched so early to Coffee without seeing if anyone else was looking at Lathum - didn't even really say why he was switching other than he had two candidates and he was happy to go with the flow. Bhlloy explained his switch more convincingly.
Packers vote is just to crazy to be wolfy.
Of course I'm going to look like crap if Coffee comes up wolf after all this, but what can you do?
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 02:23 PM
Putting my money where my yaks are.
Unvote Bhlloy
Vote Murrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:24 PM
One thing I'd like to say is that there's a lot of talk about this group of three or that group of three and them "having" to include a wolf. This is just silly. Pick three names at random and start talking about that group having to have a wolf in it and it stands up just as well.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 02:29 PM
Meh!
I remember why I find werewolf tough now. I don't know what to think. In these circumstances I tend to think it's villager chasing villager, creating havoc and the wolves not doing much of anything. I'm trying to give murrayyyyy some leeway for being new but I'm really not liking his actions today.
Well I'm taking a huge assumption that the wolves placed late night kill (within the last 15 mins) because of the large voting crowd for day one. No use in turning in a night kill so early based off D1 chaotic voting that seems to be dart board methods usually.
Here's all the talk I've seen. Lathum declares he is a vanilla villager 4-5 times so far. Then he said if he was a wolf he would do a fake reveal. So if he was a wolf he would do a fake reveal and he said he wasn't a wolf. That's why I voted for him late last night. He's quick to point out when someone else does it but no one sensed it except for me (which may be a bad read on my part)
Plus when I look above, I move to Coffee and Mau follows me with a jump on Lathum. Isn't Mau moving his early vote off someone who is getting stacked on more worrisome than me moving my vote? According to Coffee-logic, Mau is making a defensive wolf move early by getting off him and moving to Lathum to make it's a 2 horse race.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 02:30 PM
Alright, I need to think on this more. Jumped the gun and made myself look bad, I don't like that.
UNVOTE CW
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 02:33 PM
Damn right! You see! A vote for Coffee is a vote for LUCIFER.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 02:36 PM
...but in this game, wouldn't we want Lucifer dead? DID YOU JUST REVEAL AS A WOLF?
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:36 PM
As of #435
Coffee Warlord 2 - Chubby (356), murra5y (404)
bhlloy 1 - Narcizo (363)
Autumn 1 - Lathum (326)
mauchow 2 - bhlloy (386), Passacaglia (416)
Passacaglia 1 - Autumn (378)
Lathum 1 - mauchow (423)
Packers 1 - Danny (429)
Murrayyyyy 1 - Coffee (431)
Yet to vote: Hoops, fontisan, Zinto, Katylied, Packers
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 02:39 PM
Geez. All this posturing. Bad game not to be around at deadline for.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 02:39 PM
I have a feeling tonights deadline might be a little whackier.
Lathum
03-13-2013, 02:43 PM
Here's all the talk I've seen. Lathum declares he is a vanilla villager 4-5 times so far. Then he said if he was a wolf he would do a fake reveal. So if he was a wolf he would do a fake reveal and he said he wasn't a wolf. That's why I voted for him late last night. He's quick to point out when someone else does it but no one sensed it except for me (which may be a bad read on my part).
OK, I have read this paragraph 8 times and still have no idea what you are trying to say
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:46 PM
Well I need to make some sort of long-term voting decision. Of the candidates out there I feel least worst about voting murrayyyyy. So I shall continue to hitch my wagon to the coffee train. Realising what that could be interpreted as. (*whisper* me being Peck and having coffee as my designated wolfy).
Unvote bhlloy
Vote murrayyyyy
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 02:48 PM
YOU FOOL!
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 02:49 PM
OK, I have read this paragraph 8 times and still have no idea what you are trying to say
You wolfishly fake revealed as a non-wolf. I think.
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 02:50 PM
Seems appropriate right now.
http://i.imgur.com/OkRFS78.jpg
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 02:55 PM
I'm ok with a vote for me. You wont kill a wolf but at least you wont hit a villager with a role
I don't want to vote CW, but will for survival. You will get no fake reveal or anything from me. I am just a villager
I'll switch to what ever keeps me alive.
That being said there will be no last minute reveal from me. I am just a villager. No great loss.
no, but if I was a wolf at the very least I would be fake revealing
So you declare you are a villager at least 3 times last night and no night kill on you. Then you state if you were a wolf then you would fake reveal. So how would a villager reveal 3 times yesterday (not counting your I'm a villager and won't read the rules statement earlier) and somehow not get voted off. Simple answer would be because he was a wolf who fake revealed. (not saying it's right but you are the one who made the above statements the most)
In the past 2 games (one in which I was a wolf) you have voiced public opinion on why we left someone who claims to be a vanilla villager isn't night killed. By that logic, how did a night kill not happen to you?
I've talked myself out of Coffee now...
unvote coffee warlord
vote Lathum
Lathum
03-13-2013, 03:00 PM
So you declare you are a villager at least 3 times last night and no night kill on you. Then you state if you were a wolf then you would fake reveal. So how would a villager reveal 3 times yesterday (not counting your I'm a villager and won't read the rules statement earlier) and somehow not get voted off. Simple answer would be because he was a wolf who fake revealed. (not saying it's right but you are the one who made the above statements the most)
In the past 2 games (one in which I was a wolf) you have voiced public opinion on why we left someone who claims to be a vanilla villager isn't night killed. By that logic, how did a night kill not happen to you?
Your logic is flawed
early in games it isn't uncommon that wolves woud rather hunt for a rolled villager than kill a vanilla villager.
The biggest thing is I was under so much pressure yesterday, and am still unknown today, so why would the wolves waste their time night killing me when there is a high liklihood I will be a lynch target today?
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 03:10 PM
Let's ramp it up and make this a four-horse race...for no good reason other than I can!
VOTE AUTUMN
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 03:16 PM
The biggest thing is I was under so much pressure yesterday, and am still unknown today, so why would the wolves waste their time night killing me when there is a high liklihood I will be a lynch target today?
Why would you be a lynch target today? I've been doing more D1 reading than today but have you jumped to the lead in votes? You just said that early on they try for specialty characters. If you are truly vanilla then why target you? Why wouldn't they leave you around for a few days and take you out then?
Autumn
03-13-2013, 03:21 PM
I've had a lot of school work the past couple days, so been out of it a bit. I'm hoping to be more involved today.
Or instead maybe my day will turn into a disaster. I'll catch up now, but then will be scarce until about 9 EST.
Autumn
03-13-2013, 03:28 PM
And seriously, why are there 2 R's in Starrcade?
.
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, no one called him on this?
Autumn
03-13-2013, 03:30 PM
Your logic is flawed
early in games it isn't uncommon that wolves woud rather hunt for a rolled villager than kill a vanilla villager.
The biggest thing is I was under so much pressure yesterday, and am still unknown today, so why would the wolves waste their time night killing me when there is a high liklihood I will be a lynch target today?
I know from my wolf game with Murray that he felt like the wolves should be going after vanilla villagers, so I think I can deduce what he's talking about. But Murray, that's actually the opposite case. Usually the wolves will ignore anyone they think is vanilla, hoping to night kill a role.
And also, I think waht Lathum meant last night was that if he was a wolf he would have faked as the seer or some such if he was on the block, not that he would have "fake revealed" as a vanilla. Does that make sense, Murray?
Autumn
03-13-2013, 03:32 PM
We need to consolidate, and I won't be around for a while, so I need to do so now. I don't think Pass is going to get any votes right now, and I feel most fishy about Mauchow. For the record I would also consider PF and CW at this point.
<b>UNVOTE PASSACAGLIA
VOTE MAUCHOW</B>
mauchow 3 - bhlloy (386), Passacaglia (416), Autumn (429)
Autumn 2 - Lathum (326), PackerFanatic (447)
Lathum 2 - mauchow (423), murra5y (445)
murra5y 2 - Coffee Warlord (431), Narcizo (441)
Coffee Warlord 1 - Chubby (356)
PackerFanatic 1 - Danny (429)
No vote: fontisian, hoopsguy, KatyLied, Zinto
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 03:38 PM
I know from my wolf game with Murray that he felt like the wolves should be going after vanilla villagers, so I think I can deduce what he's talking about. But Murray, that's actually the opposite case. Usually the wolves will ignore anyone they think is vanilla, hoping to night kill a role.
Following this logic, why wouldn't 18 people have declared being vanilla?
I also will never understand why wolves do what is logical. Isn't there too much experience to follow the same usual pattern? Too much trust in a game built on lies.
Also when did I use that many "!'s" now you got me checking my own posts.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 03:45 PM
Well I'm not voting autumn over lathum so I'm not going to tie it up.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 03:46 PM
Following this logic, why wouldn't 18 people have declared being vanilla?
I also will never understand why wolves do what is logical. Isn't there too much experience to follow the same usual pattern? Too much trust in a game built on lies.
Also when did I use that many "!'s" now you got me checking my own posts.
Everyone pretty much does declare as a vanilla villager on day one. You shouldnt do otherwise unless you want to die quickly or lessen the chance for the village to win.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 03:49 PM
At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.
I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.
This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.
Lathum
03-13-2013, 03:51 PM
Why would you be a lynch target today? I've been doing more D1 reading than today but have you jumped to the lead in votes? You just said that early on they try for specialty characters. If you are truly vanilla then why target you? Why wouldn't they leave you around for a few days and take you out then?
I would be a lynch target because the village gets info about last nights vote from killing me. The wolves don't want to night kill me because by taking away someone who will be a likely lynch target again today it increases the odds of the village voting out a wolf.
Narcizo
03-13-2013, 03:53 PM
Everyone pretty much does declare as a vanilla villager on day one. You shouldnt do otherwise unless you want to die quickly or lessen the chance for the village to win.
I actually disagree with this. Declaring as a vanilla should be a reveal, the same way a role is revealed.
I doubt wolf Lathum would reveal as a role at that stage but I also doubt wolf Lathum would burn his bridges by claiming vanilla.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 03:54 PM
At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.
I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.
This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.
I feel exactly the same way. You put it in better words than I've tried to say this afternoon.
Damn phone.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 03:54 PM
mauchow 3 - bhlloy (386), Passacaglia (416), Autumn (429)
Autumn 2 - Lathum (326), PackerFanatic (447)
Lathum 2 - mauchow (423), murra5y (445)
murra5y 2 - Coffee Warlord (431), Narcizo (441)
Coffee Warlord 1 - Chubby (356)
PackerFanatic 1 - Danny (429)
No vote: fontisian, hoopsguy, KatyLied, Zinto
Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.
Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.
Chubby
03-13-2013, 03:55 PM
meh, not ready to move yet
and yes, i agree that if DT had revealed at 9:57 he would have easily been saved last night grrrrr
mauchow
03-13-2013, 03:55 PM
I actually disagree with this. Declaring as a vanilla should be a reveal, the same way a role is revealed.
I doubt wolf Lathum would reveal as a role at that stage but I also doubt wolf Lathum would burn his bridges by claiming vanilla.
I am talking more when the game has opened up and people say "vanilla villager" checking in.
mauchow
03-13-2013, 03:56 PM
Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.
Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.
And his vote on murrayyy makes me think...
Passacaglia
03-13-2013, 03:58 PM
So this moves from a CW runaway, to having him in 5th place now? That seems a little "uh-uh" to me.
UNVOTE MAUCHOW
VOTE COFEE WARLORD
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 04:01 PM
At this point I've got murrayyyyy as my most trusted vanilla villager. His earlier posts on the "quick night kill" are indicative of someone who has not played in a single deadline game. If he was a wolf, his teammates would have been able to help him out with this.
I think the likelihood of him thinking to bluff on this in the thread to be pretty remote.
This also strongly suggests that he is in fact a "vanilla villager" rather than a roled villager, since those people also have night actions that are due at the same "single deadline" ... so one person figured out (I hope) and the rest of the group left to go.
People probably should ignore me I guess. After all, they know I've only played 2 games. In my second game I was killed day one as a declared vanilla villager so I'm not sure I'm 100% on board with this wolves never kill a vanilla D-1 statement.
Still in a learned process with this game. For all I know the silent majority are the wolves.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:02 PM
So this moves from a CW runaway, to having him in 5th place now? That seems a little "uh-uh" to me.
UNVOTE MAUCHOW
VOTE COFEE WARLORD
Pass, do you have a reason to vote CW outside of the run/un-run?
I agree it is somewhat odd, although I guess my eyebrow raise was more on the people who had relatively quickly voted/unvoted him rather than on CW himself.
Autumn
03-13-2013, 04:02 PM
Pretty quiet mid-day rampdown for CW from 5 to 1.
Danny, murra5y, PF, and someone else (I think mauchow) all jumped off that train.
Not sure what to make of it, but seems like quite a bit of groupthink for everyone to move up and down the ladder mid-day like that.
I think it's pretty much a given if a villager gets up by a bunch middle of the day, they will not end up in the running by a few hours later. The village automatically jumps off a pileup like that, which is the real reason not to do it. If I want someone to actually get lynched I never pile on them midday because that's the best way to assure it won't happen.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:05 PM
People probably should ignore me I guess. After all, they know I've only played 2 games. In my second game I was killed day one as a declared vanilla villager so I'm not sure I'm 100% on board with this wolves never kill a vanilla D-1 statement.
Still in a learned process with this game. For all I know the silent majority are the wolves.
No, not ignore at all. I actually think you have some terrific points about wolves wanting/needing to do unconventional things. And I think that someone can step in and play a really good game of WW, both as a villager and as a wolf, right from their first game.
That said, there are some standard mechanics we've seen on this forum over the 150+ games that you haven't in two games, as seen by your posts. I guess I'm just trying to be a little opportunistic when evaluating your posts to help me figure out "good" and "bad". Same evaluation process I do with everyone I play with, albeit with a different context for each player depending on our shared history on the forum.
Silent majority can't be wolves or else they would have their 1:1 ratio and game would be over :p
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:06 PM
I think it's pretty much a given if a villager gets up by a bunch middle of the day, they will not end up in the running by a few hours later. The village automatically jumps off a pileup like that, which is the real reason not to do it. If I want someone to actually get lynched I never pile on them midday because that's the best way to assure it won't happen.
I guess, but I'm not used to seeing that kind of a ramp-up without any smoking gun. I'm sure it has happened, but as I was catching up the movement seemed sort of odd ... I just didn't quite get the group-think, I guess.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:11 PM
As far as Lathum as a candidate, it would be an interesting game of chicken for him to play suggesting early enough that he is vanilla and that his loss is not great. Doesn't mean he wouldn't try it, but it takes a certain amount of courage and conviction to do so. If he is willing to do so as a wolf, then he can enjoy the benefits of not getting serious looks from me for a couple of days.
CW and Mauchow are the remaining candidates from Day 1. So a question I'm grappling with is whether I want to go with the idea that there a wolf in the 4 candidates (DT/Lathum/CW/Mau) and thus great meaning behind the votes? Or that we had four villagers, in which case we are most likely looking at some kind of dispersal of wolves among the votes? Right now, either one of those seems like a defensible approach to Day 2.
Going to look if CW/Mau are among the Lathum voters yesterday and are not late movers. As noted earlier (by Danny, I think?), wolves would have relatively little reason for late movement if one of their own was not at risk.
Autumn
03-13-2013, 04:14 PM
I don't put any stock in Lathum making that claim. He made it hours ahead of deadline, and I would not be shocked at all if he made a different claim if it came down to the wire and said he was trying not to reveal the first time. He's smart enough to know that the "don't worry about me, I'm vanilla" routine gets some votes off of you. And he's savvy enough to still make a reveal or fake reveal at deadline anyway.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:19 PM
And no overlap. Remaining Lathum voters = Autumn, Fontsian, and bhlloy.
Wolf "dispersal theory" works better if we know that there were no wolf candidates. Or have a better idea on how many starting wolves are in the game. For example, I think there is a reasonable chance that there are only two starting wolves, who both have a chance to hunt for Gatekeeper/Keymaster each night in addition to killing. Do I think that is how it works? Dunno, but if we are going to have a reasonable shot at Gozer in the game don't we need some reasonable chance of those two getting possessed in a timely manner?
Anyway, starting to ramble at this point. Just not sure what assumptions I'm ready to make at this stage of the game other than murra5y is not my enemy. So unless I think of something clever over the next couple of hours this will be about as ill-informed a vote as D1.
Lathum
03-13-2013, 04:20 PM
I don't put any stock in Lathum making that claim. He made it hours ahead of deadline, and I would not be shocked at all if he made a different claim if it came down to the wire and said he was trying not to reveal the first time.
worked really well for DT...
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 04:20 PM
Going to look if CW/Mau are among the Lathum voters yesterday and are not late movers. As noted earlier (by Danny, I think?), wolves would have relatively little reason for late movement if one of their own was not at risk.
Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:21 PM
On a completely unrelated note, DT got roled villagers three games in a row (excluding wrestling where everyone was "roled", I guess). Pretty long odds against that ...
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:23 PM
Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.
Reasonable theory - has anyone published a vote/unvote chart from D1?
I'm not going to be here long enough to whip one up myself, and by the time I get back it will likely be 20-30 minutes before deadline.
For now, I'm planning to hold my vote until that time.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 04:28 PM
Reasonable theory - has anyone published a vote/unvote chart from D1?
I'm not going to be here long enough to whip one up myself, and by the time I get back it will likely be 20-30 minutes before deadline.
For now, I'm planning to hold my vote until that time.
Post 342
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:36 PM
Thanks. OK, so lets talk this through a bit:
Why wouldn't you look at them hiding votes on each other early? Mau jumped off Coffee to vote DT as did Coffee. They never voted for Lathum. But Lathum played his vote on them all day until he jumped on Coffee.
1st point - Mau jumped off CW to vote DT as did Coffee.
So would this be working with the idea that both of these guys are wolves who had early votes for each other and then kind of an "oh crap" period when they emerged as two of the three leaders?
2nd point - They never voted for Lathum
I'm pretty sure you aren't suggesting all three of them are wolves ... right? Just want to get a sense for where your relative suspicions lie when analyzing these trends.
3rd point - Lathum played his vote on them all day before he jumped on Coffee.
Lathum starts on Autumn, moves to mauchow, then to CW, then back to mau. He swings over to DT in the last hour. So I'm not sure I follow this point, possibly losing you in the pronouns (who is "them"? mau? He didn't end on CW, but instead on DT)
mauchow
03-13-2013, 04:43 PM
Murrayyy..another thing, don't feel bad if you aren't able to do some crazy analysis of posts and do what some of these guys do. You'll get a feel for it soon enough. I have played 50+ games and still can't analyze well at all. My game is more based on reads with a mix of using other people's analysis.
fontisian
03-13-2013, 04:44 PM
Wolf "dispersal theory" works better if we know that there were no wolf candidates. Or have a better idea on how many starting wolves are in the game. For example, I think there is a reasonable chance that there are only two starting wolves, who both have a chance to hunt for Gatekeeper/Keymaster each night in addition to killing. Do I think that is how it works? Dunno, but if we are going to have a reasonable shot at Gozer in the game don't we need some reasonable chance of those two getting possessed in a timely manner?
This paragraph reads really oddly, especially the end. It sounds like you're writing from the point of view of a non-Terror Dog scum, or from the perspective of a scum player trying to act like they know less than they do.
Vote hoopsguy
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 04:45 PM
Well that's sorta out of left field there.
fontisian
03-13-2013, 04:45 PM
There's enought time in the day to explore other options.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:48 PM
font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.
If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.
Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.
fontisian
03-13-2013, 04:50 PM
font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.
If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.
Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.
I understand what you were saying. It's the word choice that bothers me.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:52 PM
I do think having a consistent viewpoint of how to approach analysis is important. Trying to figure out what is a reasonable distribution of wolves/enemy roles is usually pretty important for me.
Doesn't mean that I'll be right with my thoughts, but that is also why I put it out there for some groupthink on it ... I want others (including the enemy, who has a better idea than I do) to chime in and help me refine my thinking. It also helps others evaluating my thoughts have more context when weighing my posts, for better or worse. Worse in the case of getting a vote right now, but hopefully better in the long term over a series of games. And better in the short term if I end up with a better model for evaluating this game.
Danny
03-13-2013, 04:54 PM
unvote packerfanatic
vote coffee warlord
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 04:55 PM
Thanks. OK, so lets talk this through a bit:
1st point - Mau jumped off CW to vote DT as did Coffee.
So would this be working with the idea that both of these guys are wolves who had early votes for each other and then kind of an "oh crap" period when they emerged as two of the three leaders?
2nd point - They never voted for Lathum
I'm pretty sure you aren't suggesting all three of them are wolves ... right? Just want to get a sense for where your relative suspicions lie when analyzing these trends.
3rd point - Lathum played his vote on them all day before he jumped on Coffee.
Lathum starts on Autumn, moves to mauchow, then to CW, then back to mau. He swings over to DT in the last hour. So I'm not sure I follow this point, possibly losing you in the pronouns (who is "them"? mau? He didn't end on CW, but instead on DT)
1) Correct. We had the same thing happen in my first game when the wolves trying to get cute with their votes. Think it was D4. They did four hours before the vote giving them plausible denial of just voting on hunches instead of hiding votes on wolves early.
2) Not suggesting all 3 are wolves, correct.
3) Correct, I meant Lathum bouncing his votes from Mau/Cw/Mau over a few hours as "them" (I forget time stamps). Then he swung over to DT later I believe. I don't think he was in danger of changing his vote for self preservation but maybe he was.
That's why I thought all three of their actions yesterday seemed weird(combined). For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:55 PM
I understand what you were saying. It's the word choice that bothers me.
Well, I still don't have a universal right answer for how to approach that. If I always write from the perspective of "us" good guys that gets seen as manipulative. If I write in a neutral tone, including myself as a potential bad guy as others should be evaluating, that is wrong as well if someone is so inclined. Kind of falls into that "werewolf rulebook" stuff joked about earlier in the thread, where whatever you do must make you a wolf.
On this particular point, I guess I don't worry about it to much personally. But I get where you are coming from ... if you feel like someone is being dodgy, you should pursue the angle.
murrayyyyy
03-13-2013, 04:57 PM
For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.
and by "a" wolf I meant at least one of them being a wolf. Poorly worded.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 04:57 PM
1) Correct. We had the same thing happen in my first game when the wolves trying to get cute with their votes. Think it was D4. They did four hours before the vote giving them plausible denial of just voting on hunches instead of hiding votes on wolves early.
2) Not suggesting all 3 are wolves, correct.
3) Correct, I meant Lathum bouncing his votes from Mau/Cw/Mau over a few hours as "them" (I forget time stamps). Then he swung over to DT later I believe. I don't think he was in danger of changing his vote for self preservation but maybe he was.
That's why I thought all three of their actions yesterday seemed weird(combined). For all three of them to not be a wolf just doesn't sit well with me.
So if you thought only one was a wolf - trying to stay away from "grand unified theories of wolves" for now - which one stands out and why? Or is the suspicion of yesterday only intact if there are 2+ wolves among the three?
Autumn
03-13-2013, 05:00 PM
font, I'm just trying to figure out how we get Gozer to have a meaningful shot at showing up in the games, have streams crossing at end, etc.
If you have to have the wolves successfully convert two separate players, who then have to locate each other, to then allow Gozer to come into being ... well, I'm thinking one scan per night seems like it is pretty remote. We typically have seers who can't find one of three wolves (in 12-16 person game) in 4-5 days, so the chances of hitting any kind of Gozer endgame seem pretty remote if they only get a scan a night.
Just trying to bring up a topic that hasn't come to light in any posts up to this point. That I thought about when trying to figure out in my head how many starting wolves we might have, in a game featuring two potential conversions.
I think a Gozer endgame is probably endgame for us. Also I think that it's very possible the wolves simply have to convert those two wolves and then the next night Gozer appears or something. I know the rules make it sound like they have to "find" each other, so there may be more to it than that, but I would guess finding each other simply means both becoming wolves. There's a very good chance this never happens, which is good, but I don't think it's super remote.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 05:04 PM
I think Gozer endgame is endgame for us if we don't have a couple of proton packs to cross streams with ... which makes it pretty important to safeguard those last remaining roled villagers somehow.
As far as their "find" each other logic ... would be cool if JAG clued us in on if both being converted was sufficient, or if there are extra steps. Not counting on it, but I guess consider this an official question on the matter.
Given the ghosts have a chance to convert two players, does it seem fair that they would have three starting members? If so, I would think they could not do both night kill and convert on same evening ... that would seem somewhat unbalanced. Definitely not expecting JAG to chime in on the train of thought in this paragraph, just trying to work it out for myself.
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 05:19 PM
Well, I see KatyLied viewing the thread so hopefully that means she will be playing and won't need to be replaced.
Heading out for a few hours. Will rejoin the conversation, and get a vote down, prior to the night deadline.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 05:22 PM
Given the ghosts have a chance to convert two players, does it seem fair that they would have three starting members? If so, I would think they could not do both night kill and convert on same evening ... that would seem somewhat unbalanced. Definitely not expecting JAG to chime in on the train of thought in this paragraph, just trying to work it out for myself.
Better question for you. You think the wolves can convert any regular villager, or there are specific roled villagers who can convert?
PackerFanatic
03-13-2013, 05:23 PM
Okay, I think I will stick with my previous move...just probably didn't to make it so early before. But based on movements since then, I think this will work...until more movement happens.
VOTE CW
hoopsguy
03-13-2013, 05:25 PM
Better question for you. You think the wolves can convert any regular villager, or there are specific roled villagers who can convert?
I'm guessing two specific ones, but would certainly be interested in hearing if someone else reads those rules differently.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 05:25 PM
Votes for me are votes for Communism.
Keep it up, Stalin.
Coffee Warlord
03-13-2013, 05:27 PM
I'm guessing two specific ones, but would certainly be interested in hearing if someone else reads those rules differently.
Okay, we're on the same page then. I thought for a minute *you* were implying they had convert-anyone powers.
As far as their "find" each other logic ... would be cool if JAG clued us in on if both being converted was sufficient, or if there are extra steps. Not counting on it, but I guess consider this an official question on the matter.
No comment.
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