Detroit Lions - M22 Franchise Preview

[Aestis]

DETROIT LIONS
Franchise Preview

The Detroit Lions open the M22 cycle as the #1 least talented team in the league by virtually any metric, playing in what may end up being the toughest division. However, some bright spots give hope for the future of this roster.


OFFENSE

Quarterback



Jared Goff comes in as the starter with a legitimate chance to prove he's a franchise QB. He's right on the bubble as a slightly below average starter but still young enough and displaying enough accuracy that the Lions front office could choose to roll with him for the duration of his (large) contract. DET has so many gaping holes to fill throughout the roster, and this definitely helps Goff as it would take valuable draft capital to meaningfully upgrade at QB.

Still, QB is arguably the #1 decision for DET to make over the next 2-3 offseasons, and it's tough to predict this early. Either way, this is the first domino to fall as the Lions have extra 1st round picks in 2022 & 2023 with a whole lot of roster holes to fill. Upgrading overall talent level or drafting a QB will be a critical early-cycle decision.

2021 Grade: C+
Future Grade: B-


Running Back



Second year back Deandre Swift is the present & future of this unit and undoubtedly one of the building blocks of this young Lions offense. Despite not being rated among the top 35 HBs in the league, expect that to change soon enough. He may never be among the elite, but he'll be a dynamic playmaker in the run & passing games for seasons to come.

Bruiser Jamal Williams is a nice complement and figures to get about half the carries this season, but his future beyond the 1-year deal he signed is uncertain. Beyond that is 7th round pick Jermar Jefferson and a converted safety. Depth is an issue to be addressed immediately.

2021 Grade: C
Future Grade: B


Tight End



Hockensen is the obvious headliner of the TE unit, and moreover is likely the top passing threat on the entire team. HC Francis hasn't historically used TEs as the top target in his offenses, but that may change this year. Hock should be a top 8 TE all cycle and one of the core pieces of the roster due for a big payday soon.

2-3 TE sets will be tougher to handle, as Darren Fells is a competent 35 yo vet, and then there is nobody on the roster with viable NFL experience. Similar to RB, depth here is a glaring issue.

2021 Grade: B+
Future Grade: A-


Offensive Line

This unit is overall the brightest spot on the team, with both talent & youth. LT Decker comes in as the 19th rated LT, a travesty given how he's played the past couple seasons, but at age 27 he should remain a decent starter for several seasons.

LG Jonah Jackson is a second-year starter coming off a surprising rookie campaign and should develop into a solid starting LG, shoring up the left side of the line alongside Decker for years to come.

C Ragnow is already a top 5 player at his position at age 25, with the potential to reach elite status within a few seasons.

RG is looking like journeyman OT Tyrell Crosby's job to lose. Unspectacular but well-rounded and just 25, the Lions will have to decide after a season whether to pay him or let him walk.



RT is where the #7 overall pick Penei Sewell slots in. While some have him projected as the long-term franchise LT, don't be so sure. RT is a premium position in today's NFL, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Sewell spend the entire cycle locking down the right side of the line. An immediate starter at just 20 years old, Sewell projects as an elite OT in a few seasons.

2021 Grade: B-
Future Grade: A-


Wide Receiver

On a team with glaring holes in multiple spots, WR is the weakest by far. 6'5 Tyrell Williams was brought in to be the nominal WR1, but he's not even a top 50 player at the position. Journeyman backup Breshad Perriman is the other clear-cut starter, but he's not even the elite speedster he once was and brings little else to the table.

Depth is also very lacking, as it's unlikely anyone on the roster will be on the team in 2 years save for one: 4th round rookie Amon-Ra St Brown, despite his well below average speed, looks like he has a shot to win the long-term slot role. The nonexistent talent at the position opens up an opportunity that would normally not exist for a 67 OVR mid-round rookie. If he can make clear strides during the first season, upgrading in the draft becomes less of a priority.

Regardless of what happens with St Brown, expect DET to be looking for WR help early & often across multiple drafts.

2021 Grade: D
Future Grade: F



DEFENSE

Defensive Interior

Free agent acquisition Michael Brockers is the headliner here--at age 30, he can still clog the middle and be a reasonably competent inside pass rusher as well, but after him the talent level drops significantly, as the next two starters are far below average starter caliber talents. The good news is that there are two rookies with bright futures: second round DT Levi Onwuzurike comes in looking to develop into a disrupting pass rusher, though he's still raw. Third round NT Alim NcNeill could be the real future star of this unit, as a prototypical NT with elite athleticism for the position, to the point where some believe he could end up being a three-down force down the line and not just an early down run stopper.


Rookie NT Alim McNeill

Depth here is decent, with Da'shawn Hand and John Penisini likely rotating in for some limited snaps each game, but nobody that looks like a long-term part of the Lions future. While McNeil and Onwuzurike look like pieces to build around, neither projects to be an elite force up front. Detroit will certainly be looking to add a game changer to this position group in future offseasons.

2021 Grade: C
Future Grade: B


Edge

New DC Aaron Glenn is moving to more of a traditional 3-4, which means the two best pass rushers on this team (Trey Flowers & Romeo Okwara) are moving to a wider OLB role. This is the most talented position group on the team, with Flowers barely squeezing in as a top 30 edge rusher league-wide and Okwara inside the top 40. Yes, that's right: two starters inside the top 40 makes it by FAR the most talent on the entire defense. Yikes.

Behind them is Romeo's younger brother, Julian, a fourth round pick from a year ago who has a chance to show he can develop into a starting edge. With elite athleticism but raw pass rush moves and no ability to play in coverage, he will need to show fast improvement to convince Detroit not to look for an impact edge rusher in the draft or via trade.

2021 Grade: B-
Future Grade: B


Linebacker

Jamie Collins moves to a full-time off-ball role, and at age 31 he is still fast and solid all-around vs both the run and in coverage. But he obviously is not the future of the position. 26 year old free agent acquisition Alex Anzalone slots into the clear-cut LB2 role due to his ability to play the pass, and third year pro Jahlani Tavai is on the hotseat as to whether he can play the role of early down LB longer-term. Additionally, fifth round pick Derrick Barnes brings speed to the position but is very raw and not ready for significant snaps. So there is some youth at the position, but a lot of question marks around whether Anzalone or Tavai merit longer-term deals.

2021 Grade: C+
Future Grade: B-


Safety

The weakest position on the defense, the Lions will be scraping the barrel in 2021. Third-year pro CB Amani Oruwariye has been getting snaps at FS in training camp and may end up being the starter there. Veteran starting SS Tracy Walker seems likely to retain that role, but neither he nor S Will Harris bring much to the table in terms of the coverage ability DC Glenn covets. Walker could shine in a slot role or LB/S hybrid playing in the box, but DET will struggle to defend the deep ball with any of their safety options on the field. CJ Moore is the closest thing to a young development player, but he doesn't project to make any long-term impact in the league.

2021 Grade: D
Future Grade: F


Cornerback



While CB will still be a position of weakness compared to the rest of the league in 2021, there are some young players here who give some hope for the near future. First & foremost is of course the #3 overall pick from 2020, Jeff Okudah. After a rough rookie campaign in Matt Patricia's terrible system, Okudah looks much more comfortable so far this offseason and is a lock for one of the starting roles. Free agent Quinton Dunbar was brought in and will compete with aforementioned CB Oruwariye for the other starting outside corner spot.

In the slot, new addition Corn Elder will compete with Mike Ford for the starting nickel back position, with early camp read looking like Ford is poised to win the job. Both are just 26 years old and could prove worthy of the team's future. The most intriguing player in the secondary is third-round rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu, who at 6'3 has an elite size/speed/athleticism profile and the versatility to play boundary/slot/safety. It's unclear how he factors in this season, as he is still very raw, but the coaching staff wants to find ways to get him on the field in sub packages. Whether he's the long term answer at outside CB is very much TBD, but he'll have the opportunity should he develop quickly enough.

The youth in this position group is intriguing and could develop into a bona fide strength within a couple of years, but the stark immediate reality is the Lions don't have a single CB on the roster ranked in the top 64 league-wide, which next to an atrocious safety group bodes very, very poorly for their ability to cover anyone all year.

2021 Grade: D
Future Grade: B+


SPECIAL TEAMS

Punter
Lions have an awesome young punter in Jack Fox and will definitely spend the money to re-sign him, because run-run-pass-punt doesn't work as a strategy otherwise, and forcing ultra-long fields is the only way the defense will have a chance to get stops. Fox is an early candidate for team MVP.


Kicker
Randy Bullock will be the kicker probably. He projects to make most but also miss a few.



SUMMARY

In summary, 2021 is going to be extremely rough. The defense is going to be the least talented in the league, putting a lot of pressure on the decent pass rushers to play above its level and on the coaching staff to win with game planning. Offensively, they are unlikely to be high-scoring, so ball safety has to be a premium to keep games within striking distance and hope Goff can pull out a couple of late-game drives to win.

The team isn't stocked with young talent, but there's enough here plus extra premium draft capital from the Stafford trade, that the future is certain to be much, much brighter than the present.


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