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MVP
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Royals at the First-Quarter Pole (05/17)
MONDESI RETURNS!
I had to go back and add this snippet in late last night, but the Royals have announced that they are activating Adalberto Mondesi in time for the Royals to begin a three-game series with the Tigers on Friday. No corresponding move has been announced as of yet, but I can't imagine that Ryan O'Hearn, who has an option remaining even after this season, is long for the active roster. Kris Bubic was also optioned to Triple-A this morning, as he'll make a Friday start up there in place of Jackson Kowar, who was issued a six-game (basically, one start) suspension for an incident during Saturday's game where he hit long-time MLB veteran Edwin Encarnacion with a fastball in the second inning, and the benches cleared.
So, what would a return to the lineup for Mondesi look like for the Royals? Well, for one, the defense should improve dramatically. They're 12th in the American League in adjusted efficiency, which is still not enough to get them out of the bottom one-third of all MLB teams. Mondesi will bump Nicky Lopez off shortstop, who will bump Whit Merrifield off into RF, who will (mercifully) make Jorge Soler's glove mysteriously disappear from his locker.
Not to say that Soler is a 'bad' defender, at least according to the metrics, but his arm is surprisingly below-average for RF, and struggles with routes and situational awareness. The fact is, though, no matter who else you put out there that's currently on the roster, they're likely going to be around average. Kyle Isbel would be the most likely candidate to be the team's RF of the future, but there are questions about on whether he'll hit enough. Plus, he's down in Omaha.
Secondly, despite Mondesi's overall poor results from his rehab stint between two levels so far (3-for-34), he has still managed to post exit velo's of 95 MPH or better on more than half his plate appearances. If he can re-create his September outburst from a season ago, the Royals, already eight games over .500 and in first place in the AL Central, suddenly become more dangerous.
IS THERE ANYTHING THIS TEAM DOES WELL?
Well, the short answer is 'no'. Their OPS and wOBA rank sixth and seventh in the AL, respectively, and they're below-average defensively as noted above. Not to mention those hitting numbers are buoyed heavily by two guys, Whit Merrifield (1.014 OPS, .405 wOBA), and Hanser Alberto (.825 OPS, .361 wOBA); no one else has better than a .730 OPS other than Salvador Perez, who is on the injured list. Even though their team ERA is fourth in the AL, their starters and bullpen rank fifth and sixth, respectively, which is middle-of-the-pack league-wide. They still don't strike out a ton of guys, and by virtue of the poor infield defense, give up a good number of hits that wouldn't be against league-average defenders.
What they do 'well' is keep the ball in the ballpark. A big reason for that is Danny Duffy, Mike Minor, and Jakob Junis, all guys notorious for giving up homeruns in bunches, and it just hasn't happened to date (furiously looking for wooden object to knock on). They've combined to give up just eleven homeruns in 115 2/3 innings, which is less than one homerun per nine. It bears watching in Junis' case to see if the Royals keep him in the rotation once Minor returns from the injured list. A ten-strikeout performance in 6 2/3 innings against a solid offensive team like the White Sox will play nicely.
For all of Brad Keller's struggles, up until his last start, even he had allowed just three homeruns in 31 1/3 IP, keeping his FIP around the 4.00 mark. His ERA is a ghastly 6.94, but his FIP is still a full two runs below that at 4.90, even with the two-HR start a few days ago, so there's still reason to be hopeful that he turns it around (more on this later).
Admittedly, some of the win-loss success is also schedule-driven with the Twins, Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers all well below .500, and other teams like Toronto and Cleveland closer to that, but still not quite there. That's going to change in a hurry (more below on that).
SOME BATS ARE STILL IN ARIZONA
What's even more remarkable about the Royals' 24-16 start is that several of their big-money guys have yet to really get going offensively. Andrew Benintendi, acquired over the offseason in a trade, has a .683 OPS. Soler? .717. Santana? .708.
The cherry on top is fresh off signing a four-year extension, Hunter Dozier. He has an abysmal .669 OPS to date; at least Santana (eight homeruns) and Soler (six homeruns) have been giving the Royals something in the power department; Dozier has just two homeruns all season long.
Peaking at .400 right before the last road series with Detroit, Whit Merrifield has slowed down considerably, hitting just .231 (6-for-26) over his last six games, so he and Alberto, who are carrying the offense right now with Perez out, aren't going to be enough to sustain the .600 record they currently hold.
HOW LONG DO THE ROYALS STICK WITH KELLER?
They should let him work it out, and here's why -- he has the second-lowest opponent hard hit rate on the team, and the best GB% in the American League at 63%, which is a ridiculously good number. I really don't think it can be overstated how Mondesi's return later this week should improve his fortunes. Hunter Dozier will still be an adventure at third base, but Mondesi should be able to cover up some of that.
Lopez and Alberto should make an intriguing platoon possibility at second base, although you really want to keep Alberto's bat in the lineup somehow, because he's white-hot at the moment. Lopez/Alberto can help cover up some of Carlos Santana's deficiencies at first base as well; at least until next season when Soler is likely gone (perhaps earlier), and Dozier can slide over to first to make room for Bobby Witt, Jr., at third base (fingers crossed).
Merrifield's not a great outfielder; but he's better than Soler, and that's going to make life easier on Michael Taylor (and by extension, Andrew Benintendi, who is a slightly above average defender in LF over his career). Basically put, Mondesi's re-insertion into the lineup likely improves the defense at EVERY position on the diamond to some extent, which is a testament to his abilities. You can't expect Keller to maintain a 63% groundball rate over the course of a season in a larger sample size, but if he can keep it around 55%, then we're cooking with gas.
WHAT DOES THE SECOND QUARTER HOLD?
The last game of a three-game series with the Red Sox will mark the season's halfway point, and we'll know quite a bit more about the team at that point. June is an absolutely brutal month schedule-wise. The Angels, Red Sox, and A's are all well-stocked teams, and the Yankees are dangerous despite their record being one of the top offensive teams in baseball. Also, if the Twins can get it going offensively...look out.
That said, I expect the Royals to still be in contention at that point thanks to their eight-game cushion over .500. If the Royals manage to come out on the other side of June with a winning record, it'll be an unmitigated success. Even the rest of May is no cakewalk -- the Brewers and Rays are also very good squads; and they're currently without both Mike Minor and Salvador Perez, who are both expected to miss the rest of the month.
The other interesting storyline to follow is Witt, Jr. It's still a bit early to draw too many conclusions, but the early returns to date are decent (.743 OPS, 106 OPS+) in Double-A. If he continues to progress, especially in the power department, it would not be shocking to see him advance quickly, perhaps being ready to go as soon as the All-Star break.
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05-14-2021, 09:10 PM
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