appreciate the insight, and you're pretty close, but you're off a little bit. i'll just go point by point:
i agree with this. if i had to guess (if they are still using #'s), i'd put us at about 95-97 on defense (one of the 2 highest rated in the game, along with uf), about an 85-86 on offense, and around 91-92 overall.
losing rashad johnson, AA fs, will hurt. and you are right that the front seven forcing 3rd and longs are a huge part of the d success, but the pass rush was definitely our weakness. we were bottom half of both the sec and nation in sacks, rarely put pressure on the qb, and if you watched the seccg and particularly the sugar bowl you know that not getting pressure on the qb's killed us.
this is the main focsu for the d in the off season, imo. getting a dominant pass rusher. will help out our db's tremedously, which i will get at...
arenas is the best return man in the game, imo. already has the most returns for td in bama history, and we've had some great ones (the duece, anyone?). as a corner, he is pretty good as well. not the most talented, and a bit undersized, but he has held his own. jackson (will be a jr) has more talent, but had a soph-slump last year. he got picked on a good bit, but we also didnt help him with pressure on the qb. a corner/db can only cover a wr for so long before someone gets open, and if we continue to allow good qb's time to find him, we'll continue to get beat there. pressure on the qb is as vital to the db's success as the db's skills are, imo. also, look for robby green to take the fs spot, and be pretty good, but will also make some frosh (rs) mistakes.
no question. both will likely be early 1st rounders next draft.
ingram will continue to impress, imo. him, and upchurch, should be the 2 main rb's, provided upchurch gets healthy (neck injury). 2 stud incoming frosh will also get some looks, lacy (if he makes it in) and richardson. as ussual, saban will use rb by committee with those mentioned.
julio will be all sec, im sure. mcelroy, imo, will looks very similar to jpw was last year, not killing us but not overwhelming either. maze is so incosistent. if he would make the simple plays he would have a phenominal year. he makes ridiculous stuff looks easy, and easy stuff look hard.
i have a feeling au will have a very rough year, and to be honest it kinda disappoints me. i like when auburn is good. makes for better seasons and games and banter. last year ending the streak was fun, but it wasnt near as fun as it woud have been had they been a good team. it was almost pre-decided, anti-climatic.
i think you're forgetting lsu and arky as well. lsu is the team to beat in the west, imo. and arky will be this year's ole miss, will dropp 3-4 games, but by seasons end can beat anyone.
im not sold on malzahn. im still not sure he has been given control of anyone's offense at this level. he might be great, but im just not sure. this one will definitely be his, though, so we'll see. from what we do know, he was pass happy as a hs coach, and if he continues that at au, he might have trouble. they have no qb, except if that rollinson kid gets in, but he would be a true frosh. gonna be interesting.
typos abound, but im too lazy to go find them and correct them.