It looks like a lot, but I think there's some good stuff and good food for thought in the below section. I'd advise you to read closely—it's a good thing to do to pass the work day, lol.
Part 2: Potential
The potential rating, in two words, is completely unrealistic in EA NHL. To be more specific, telling users that there is a 'high' probability, or a 'low' probability, that a player will reach his potential is a major strike against reality. If the Trail Blazers knew that Sam Cassel had a 'low' chance to reach his potential, they probably would have gone for Michael Jordan. This designation I suggest, be, simply, taken out completely. What follows, however, is not as simple.
You see the even numbers above. BigDisk has thoughtfully pointed out that the overall of the NHL is rather like a curve, starting low, going high, and returning south once more. The numbers my equation spit out are very even. Therefore I reveal something that will lower Progression/Regression Percent.
This number, highlighted in green/red [option to turn on/off, turning off provides a more realistic/hardcore experience that makes it harder to determine if a player is regressing] numbers the percent of a player's progression that they have achieved. Each player has their own unique "progression cap," but everyone will start at a different level, based on their CHL/overseas stats and ratings. Players won't fall into the same pattern (the pattern currently is the higher drafted, the higher stars), meaning there's a chance that a late-round player could have either a high cap (though he may struggle to reach it!) or good personal progression. Presuming implementation of training into Be A GM 17, considering the fact that it's in Be A Pro 16, the Progression percent is something that a team can have a positive/negative effect on, rather than the current style of player being pre-locked into a path.
More advantages, and ways this reflects real life, to think about:- Players have their own unique max value and will progress toward that at their own pace—some may hit close to their max progression cap, some may not (think "bust").
- The above reflects real life—teams may let a player slip because they think he'll have a tough time in the league and won't be able to improve much; yet teams may also reach for a player because they think they can develop him into a great player.
- Despite players growing at their own pace, you as a GM can affect their growth [more than the current play them in their correct role]—playing a guy in the AHL for a while may improve their overall progression, but they may have a lower progression ceiling due to the lesser competition. By contrast, you may place a player in the NHL early, but they may struggle and have trouble hitting a higher part of their progression.
- Rather than the current draft decision of #stars>colour, you'll have a much more interesting choice (but you'll have to wait until part 3, scouting, to see why).
Let's look at two real prospects from last year's draft to get a more direct inkling of how this works, without spoiling too much.
Conor McDavid is a guy with one of the highest possible attribute caps and the highest Progression Percent number in the whole class, due to his insane CHL numbers. He's a guy you'll want to play in the NHL right away without fear of his development being slowed. Lawson Crouse, on the other hand, is a "reach" type player. He may have a high cap, but it's tough to make the call on a project like him, not being sure about how he'll progress. But the high cap may be too tantalizing to let slip out of the top 10.
To address BigDisk's point from above—as I said, I'm still tuning my formula so that there will be fewer top-level players. But there are a lot of players out there with the potential to be great, but few make it to that height. I've put that option in place, while at the same time ensuring that it's rare that a player will hit their high max cap and be a superstar.
Scouting, of course, plays an enormous role in this. That's up later in the week. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, please share!