Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

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  • jaysfan17
    Banned
    • Jan 2015
    • 69

    #61
    Re: Preformance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

    Originally posted by Knight165
    This is a thread about how performance is not driving progression or staving off regression...and how it should be a force in doing so.

    Then Bautista was brought into the conversation to which I posed the question....

    If the game relied on performance to drive rating gains....how could you have the real life Bautista 2007(since that was 600 AB's)....hitting .254 with 15 homers 63 RBI.....68 BB .....330 OBP and 220 total bases.....be about the same if not worse for 2 more seasons and then at age 29 and 30 rocket to the top of the class in HR's...hit .260 and .302....gain 50 and 110 points in OBP and have 300+(including the league leading 350) total bases if the game used performance to drive progression?

    My point is...performance is often a piss poor indicator of gains.

    The best formula IMO.....potential/probability/a touch of random and a smidge of performance. I think if you looked y2y at most players....it's more roller coaster than anything and expecting last year = next year(+/-) is not right.

    JMHO.

    M.K.
    Knight165

    Oh, okay. I agree with your formula for player progression. It seems like a good way of looking at it.


    Thanks

    Comment

    • Knight165
      *ll St*r
      • Feb 2003
      • 24964

      #62
      Re: Preformance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

      Originally posted by boxers
      Knight, I'm not sure I understand your Bautista example. The sim engine is supposed to capture that sort of thing. Sometimes you have a 90 OVR player perform poorly during a sim. Performance based regression would adjust that player's OVR so that the following year, his stats are worse and, therefore, the likelihood that the sim engine has him play well is lower.

      In the Bautista example, performance based progression would kick in so that if the sim engine in MLB 15 came out with a 70 OVR Bautista (at age 29) putting up MVP numbers, he would exceed his natural progression (say default +1 OVR to +8 OVR or something like that). The OVR ratings don't make every player good or bad, the impact is on the likelihood of their results in the sim engine.

      Performance based progression/regression, should simply change overalls in a way that impacts the probability that a player repeats his performance from the previous season (for better or worse).

      In other words, if 29 year old Bautista has an MVP season in an MLB15 sim despite having a 70 OVR, he should be rewarded by having his OVR increased the following season, therefore making it more likely (but not certain) that he repeats the MVP performance. I see it as being no different than when a player has a good year, like Corey Kluber in 2014 and gets a bump in his rating by +17 in MLB15.

      Okay...but I'm asking...looking at his year(s) PRIOR to 2010....how would you get Bautista to be that MVP player with a performance based system.
      His 2009 line of .235/13/.349 408 slugging 56 BB and 137 total bases wouldn't even come close to giving him the ratings to have his 2010/2011 career years.
      So my question would be how would you have that happen?
      ...and to another point...how would you then have him NOT repeat that in 2012/13/14 after his .302/43/.447....and which he led the league in 5 categories?.....(I realize that injuries played a part in that....but that mechanism 1. isn't present in the game and 2. not always the factor which causes players to not repeat and gain on great seasons)

      ..and I'm not asking about the current game systems....I'm asking about it for those who are asking for heavier performance influence or the very few who want to see it totally reliant on performance.

      M.K.
      Knight165
      All gave some. Some gave all. 343

      Comment

      • tabarnes19_SDS
        Game Designer
        • Feb 2003
        • 3084

        #63
        Re: Preformance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

        Playoffs of second season. I wanted to show that the system is much different than last year, no matter what people are claiming. Huge drops would happen to players that were 34 to 35 last year.

        If you look at Bautista and Werth they only dropped about 3 or 4 ovl a year for 2 years. TEX ACTUALLY INCREASED 1overall.uploadfromtaptalk1428364027625.jpguploadfromtaptalk1428364038739.jpguploadfromtaptalk1428364116167.jpg

        Comment

        • Maverick09
          Rookie
          • Jun 2004
          • 267

          #64
          Re: Preformance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

          So I did some testing, and it seems like the SP that are being drafted are coming out with potentials that are way too high. After 4 or 5 seasons, most teams' AAA and AA starting rotations begin to resemble that of an MLB team. Virtually no SP's on the AA, AAA, and MLB rosters have potentials lower than C; most have B and A potentials.

          Other positions do not seem affected by this trend.

          Comment

          • jcar0725
            "ADAPT OR DIE"
            • Aug 2010
            • 3818

            #65
            Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

            I just want it to be somewhat unpredictable. For example: I'm starting the 4th year of my franchise, in my first year draft I selected an "A Potential" SS.....

            He sat in AA his first year, had average numbers. I bumped him up to AAA his next year and he barely moved up, ratings-wise. At the most maybe 70. Decent fielder, but absolutely terrible hitter. His hitting ratings just wouldn't move. He went up and down between AA and AAA throughout his career.

            I moved him up to my MLB roster in his final year with my team, just to see if maybe I could control his hitting and get results, but not a chance. Terrible hitter. 4 years in to his career, his overall ratings barely moved at all, even while he was down in AA. And his by this time, he was 26 years old.

            I finally gave up and dealt him for a switch-hitting, C rated young SS that can really play great defense.

            But I like that there was no guarantee my A potential SS would be a star. I think that's cool.
            JUUUUUUUST A BIT OUTSIDE

            Comment

            • extremeskins04
              That's top class!
              • Aug 2010
              • 3864

              #66
              Re: Preformance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

              Originally posted by Maverick09
              So I did some testing, and it seems like the SP that are being drafted are coming out with potentials that are way too high. After 4 or 5 seasons, most teams' AAA and AA starting rotations begin to resemble that of an MLB team. Virtually no SP's on the AA, AAA, and MLB rosters have potentials lower than C; most have B and A potentials.

              Other positions do not seem affected by this trend.
              I simmed 15 years and while I've seen alot of A and B potentials, there were quite a few C and D's as well.

              Also like I've said before, just because a player has an A potential does not mean they will be 90+. There were many occasions where I followed players throughout the 15 year stretch and watch their A and B potentials turn to C potentials and they ended up being busts.

              Sure there were some that ended up being amazing, but there were quite a few players that didn't amount to anything, and this is entirely simming the game for 15 years.

              Comment

              • thawkprime 21
                Rookie
                • Jul 2009
                • 275

                #67
                Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                My fear with performance based progression in games goes back to NFL feaver if im getting the name correct. It was the football game that microsoft put out for the original Xbox. With performance progession every player on your team ended the season with perfect speed and a 99 overall rating. Becasue there progession during the season caused them to have even better stats thus progress more and then even better stats. I have also seen this in other games that have stat based progession that usualy causes USER controlled players to progess greater then CPU players, creating very unbalanced teams down the line. But with that said it would be nice if older players didnt become useless by the allstar break.

                Comment

                • jaysfan17
                  Banned
                  • Jan 2015
                  • 69

                  #68
                  Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                  Originally posted by Knight165
                  Okay...but I'm asking...looking at his year(s) PRIOR to 2010....how would you get Bautista to be that MVP player with a performance based system.
                  His 2009 line of .235/13/.349 408 slugging 56 BB and 137 total bases wouldn't even come close to giving him the ratings to have his 2010/2011 career years.
                  So my question would be how would you have that happen?
                  ...and to another point...how would you then have him NOT repeat that in 2012/13/14 after his .302/43/.447....and which he led the league in 5 categories?.....(I realize that injuries played a part in that....but that mechanism 1. isn't present in the game and 2. not always the factor which causes players to not repeat and gain on great seasons)

                  ..and I'm not asking about the current game systems....I'm asking about it for those who are asking for heavier performance influence or the very few who want to see it totally reliant on performance.

                  M.K.
                  Knight165

                  Bautista was probably a bad example to use, but I get your point 'how would he progress based on his stats'. I would say there are not many players like him who come out of nowhere and become this slugging champion after having sub-par season's. I don't believe there is any system in place where we could have another 'Bautista' (shall we say Bautista 2.0) to rise up through the ranks the way he did. However those of you familiar with how Bautista came to be, all it took was a simple tweak to his approach at the plate. Maybe we could consider having a feature in a future MLB game where we can assign coaches to work more extensively with specific players to improve their batting and/or pitching mechanics. Maybe having this idea and mix it with Knight's previous formula we could potentially have something. These idea's that we're throwing around may seem farfetched, but if it works it would be better than the current system in place.

                  Originally posted by tabarnes19
                  Playoffs of second season. I wanted to show that the system is much different than last year, no matter what people are claiming. Huge drops would happen to players that were 34 to 35 last year.

                  If you look at Bautista and Werth they only dropped about 3 or 4 ovl a year for 2 years. TEX ACTUALLY INCREASED 1overall.[ATTACH]95588[/ATTACH][ATTACH]95589[/ATTACH][ATTACH]95590[/ATTACH]

                  Not all players over 34 in MLB 14 would regress significantly, but most would. The Mark Teixeira regress seemed relatively realistic however you can't possibly convince me that Jose and Jayson regress that much. You may think I'm being bias here considering I am a jays fan, but I've been watching Jose play since 08 and he's been relatively healthy (discounting 2012-2013) and if you look at him he's fairly fit for a guy in his mid 30's. I think he can maintain 30 HR per year until he turns 40 at least (unless he retires before than). As for Werth, I can't see him regressing in every stat category. It's the same for every player. Generally, players typically lose speed over time and this affects their fielding ability; the batting still is there however it should decrease, but nothing drastic like loosing 10-15 points.

                  Comment

                  • tabarnes19_SDS
                    Game Designer
                    • Feb 2003
                    • 3084

                    #69
                    Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                    Originally posted by jaysfan17
                    Bautista was probably a bad example to use, but I get your point 'how would he progress based on his stats'. I would say there are not many players like him who come out of nowhere and become this slugging champion after having sub-par season's. I don't believe there is any system in place where we could have another 'Bautista' (shall we say Bautista 2.0) to rise up through the ranks the way he did. However those of you familiar with how Bautista came to be, all it took was a simple tweak to his approach at the plate. Maybe we could consider having a feature in a future MLB game where we can assign coaches to work more extensively with specific players to improve their batting and/or pitching mechanics. Maybe having this idea and mix it with Knight's previous formula we could potentially have something. These idea's that we're throwing around may seem farfetched, but if it works it would be better than the current system in place.




                    Not all players over 34 in MLB 14 would regress significantly, but most would. The Mark Teixeira regress seemed relatively realistic however you can't possibly convince me that Jose and Jayson regress that much. You may think I'm being bias here considering I am a jays fan, but I've been watching Jose play since 08 and he's been relatively healthy (discounting 2012-2013) and if you look at him he's fairly fit for a guy in his mid 30's. I think he can maintain 30 HR per year until he turns 40 at least (unless he retires before than). As for Werth, I can't see him regressing in every stat category. It's the same for every player. Generally, players typically lose speed over time and this affects their fielding ability; the batting still is there however it should decrease, but nothing drastic like loosing 10-15 points.
                    I'm never going to convince you and won't try. I do have a degree in exercise physiology.

                    What I can tell you, without exception, is that EVERYONE loses power, speed, agility, reflexes, balance and muscle mass as they age.

                    You can slow the effects with exercise and diet, but NO ONE including Ponce DeLeon has found a way to stop aging.

                    The ratings are designed to be a representation of physical skills.

                    Comment

                    • Knight165
                      *ll St*r
                      • Feb 2003
                      • 24964

                      #70
                      Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                      Nice...a De Leon reference.
                      A Show first!

                      M.K.
                      Knight165
                      All gave some. Some gave all. 343

                      Comment

                      • jaysfan17
                        Banned
                        • Jan 2015
                        • 69

                        #71
                        Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                        Originally posted by tabarnes19
                        I'm never going to convince you and won't try. I do have a degree in exercise physiology.

                        What I can tell you, without exception, is that EVERYONE loses power, speed, agility, reflexes, balance and muscle mass as they age.

                        You can slow the effects with exercise and diet, but NO ONE including Ponce DeLeon has found a way to stop aging.

                        The ratings are designed to be a representation of physical skills.



                        I know they loose all that stuff as they age. I never said players can defy aging. What I'm saying is they shouldn't be loosing complete control in their mid-30's.

                        Comment

                        • codyj123_321
                          Banned
                          • Apr 2009
                          • 499

                          #72
                          Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                          Originally posted by jaysfan17
                          I know they loose all that stuff as they age. I never said players can defy aging. What I'm saying is they shouldn't be loosing complete control in their mid-30's.


                          I agree. I hate how you can never have veterans come out of nowhere and have a flashback type year. A good example is Brett Favre. He was elite for many years and then had a few bad years after GB, then in 2009 he has one of his greatest seasons at like 39 years old. My point is that older players can have productive seasons late in their careers. The show makes anyone after 33 or 34 useless.

                          Comment

                          • Finn
                            Rookie
                            • Oct 2010
                            • 328

                            #73
                            Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                            Not sure if this is related to performance progression but coming out of Spring Training a number of SP Stamina was down a point or two and I wasn't sure if it was due to the 3 inning limit. (Speaking of I don't like how simming a spring training game will often sub in a following day SP for the fourth rather than going to the bullpen).

                            Comment

                            • Knight165
                              *ll St*r
                              • Feb 2003
                              • 24964

                              #74
                              Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                              Originally posted by codyj123_321
                              I agree. I hate how you can never have veterans come out of nowhere and have a flashback type year. A good example is Brett Favre. He was elite for many years and then had a few bad years after GB, then in 2009 he has one of his greatest seasons at like 39 years old. My point is that older players can have productive seasons late in their careers. The show makes anyone after 33 or 34 useless.
                              Did you actually read this thread?
                              If you actually TRY and play the players and see what they can do(rather than going by his numbers only) ....you certainly can get productive seasons from older players.

                              M.K.
                              Knight165
                              All gave some. Some gave all. 343

                              Comment

                              • Knight165
                                *ll St*r
                                • Feb 2003
                                • 24964

                                #75
                                Re: Performance-Based Player Progression (Official Thread)

                                Originally posted by Finn
                                Not sure if this is related to performance progression but coming out of Spring Training a number of SP Stamina was down a point or two and I wasn't sure if it was due to the 3 inning limit. (Speaking of I don't like how simming a spring training game will often sub in a following day SP for the fourth rather than going to the bullpen).
                                This is likely your coaches(their ratings influence your player stats)

                                M.K.
                                Knight165
                                All gave some. Some gave all. 343

                                Comment

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