BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

[Fours]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

This all sounds interesting. But why sim this game ahead 8 plus years. If I was going to sim…I would invest in OOTP for that type of game. I play every game, every inning and I am into season #2 and have not seen the type of problems. The things I see are 90 rated players not living up to the hype, having bad years….just like in real life. Fraizer for my Reds is a prime example. Rated 84….but batting .204, 10 hrs, 39 RBI's and has lost his job to a 73 rated player. As far Fraizers potential….I can't play him because of his stats no matter what he rates at.

Not saying simming ahead is not an interesting way to play….but seems u lose a lot of day to day things that happen in baseball.

I agree 100%, why doesn't everyone just play the way I do, and stop expecting the modes I don't use to work properly.

It drives me crazy that they've spent so much time tuning DD online games. I just collect cards and never play games and if everyone just did that then we wouldn't have to worry about drag bunts, stolen bases, and de-sync's.

Please check with me personally before posting about flaws in game modes, and I'll tell you how to enjoy the game like I do, or which game you should have purchased instead.


Ridiculous sarcasm aside, why does every constructive, intelligent thread that tries to provide information that would help the development of the game have to be sprinkled with the "Don't ask them to fix this, just play differently so they can leave it broken" posts.

[Purplepower_NC]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

I agree 100%, why doesn't everyone just play the way I do, and stop expecting the modes I don't use to work properly.

It drives me crazy that they've spent so much time tuning DD online games. I just collect cards and never play games and if everyone just did that then we wouldn't have to worry about drag bunts, stolen bases, and de-sync's.

Please check with me personally before posting about flaws in game modes, and I'll tell you how to enjoy the game like I do, or which game you should have purchased instead.


Ridiculous sarcasm aside, why does every constructive, intelligent thread that tries to provide information that would help the development of the game have to be sprinkled with the "Don't ask them to fix this, just play differently so they can leave it broken" posts.

Sorry to have come off as you have noted, that is not how i meant for it to been taken. I completely understand the simmers point of view. And believe me I have done my share of roster edits in my life. Again, I have no problem with how someone wants to enjoy the game…and helping to make the game better, it helps all of us in the long run.

My point was if you sim ahead that far possible things could be happening that you are not aware of. For instance the training in the game. I notice that a players ability was dropping in an area and switched to training that area and he improved. The AI doesn't do a very good job with this, training for speed when he is power guy. This is just one area that might be missed.

Again, it was not meant to "play it my way" type of post, again sorry if anyone took it that way.

[Bat]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Is this still the case with base rosters? I know it is not preferable, but maybe a lesser amount good prospects helps? If mentioned before, I may have missed it.

[plak89]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Makes sense.

For those still early on, I highly suggest you go through your roster and lower some of the "A" potential guys that are rated in the 70's and in their late 30's. This seems to remedy the issue.

Question though: Tim Hudson has a 97 potential, Freddy Garcia has 88 potential, AJ Burnett has like 95 potential... Why?

Has anyone tried this, and does it solve the issue?

[bobloblah1980]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Has anyone tried this, and does it solve the issue?

yeah.... that won't fix the issue.. this issue is going many years deep into franchise mode. Long after those type of guys have "retired"

[eraserx13]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

So I started up a new franchise and here is what I did to hopefully address the Overpowered Pitcher problem:

1. Used OFSM latest roster with Minor Leaguers

2. Lowered 5-7pts of POT of every pitcher in MLB 100 Top Prospect List with the exception of Giolito and Uriah since they are the only ones who have a 65 OVR from MLB scouting. As a result, they are the only top prospects who have an A POT.

3. For scouting leading up to the draft, I discovered for each region only 1 day for Right-Handed pitchers and 1 day for Left-Handed pitchers. Then I spent a total of 10 days across all the regions for various position players. I spent 2 days each on discovering Catchers with Contact/Arm Strength, Infielders with Contact/Power, Infielders with Contact/Speed, Outfielders with Contact/Power, and Outfielders with Contact/Speed.

4. I scouted each of these prospects leading up to the draft and drafted players that I discovered only.

5. Once the draft is over, I tried to simulate the Boom and Bust rate of draftees (75% of draftees in the 1st round fail to make it the Show) by using a random number generator on Excel to determine pitchers who will have their potential ratings dropped.

To do this, I counted the number of pitchers taken in the round and gave them a number. I used the number generator on Excel to determine who is the Bust. I do this until I reach 75% of the total pitchers taken in the round. So if 20 pitchers were taken in Round 1, I target 15 of them as Busts.

For the pitchers targeted as Busts (which includes Pitchers I drafted), I dropped their Potential by around ~15%:

90-99 POT Busts = Drop 14pts in POT
80-89 POT Busts = -12pts
70-79 POT Busts = -10pts
60-69 POT Busts = -9pts
50-59 POT Busts = -7pts

So a 99 POT Pitcher that is targeted as a Bust will have a 85 POT which in the grand sceme of things is still pretty good. Add in the easy hurdles to catch a hot streak while in the minor league system, that pitcher who had a 14pt drop in POT could conceivable be pretty good with a ratings in the high 80s/ low 90s if they perform well.

For the pitchers targeted as Boom, I left their Potential untouched:

As you know, the Boom and Bust rate of draftees varies by round. So here is the Boom and Bust rate that I used for each round:

1st Round - 25% Boom (Success in reaching the Majors) and 75% Bust
1st Round Supplemental Round - 20% Boom and 80% Bust
2nd Round - 20% Boom and 80% Bust
3rd Round - 15% Boom and 85% Bust
4th Round through 7th Round - 10% Boom and 90% Bust

6. Once the season is over, I went through each team and made the adjustments to each drafted pitcher.

This might seem like alot of work but the reality is that it isn't since the CPU doesn't sign many of their drafted players. So making the adjustments on each pitcher tagged as a Bust doesnt take too long.

Other thoughts:

1. I am in year two now and I will continue to monitor the stats to see if this will affect league wide hitting and pitching. Right now its too early.

2. Its actually quite interesting with this method since you are put in some cool situations during the draft. Do I draft the 60 OVR/95 POT Pitcher who can be targeted a Bust and have his POT drop to as low as 81 in favor of a 60 OVR/88 Position Player? If I am drafting high, I tend to go with the high floor approach but that's just me.

3. Dropping the POT of your drafted pitchers is tough but its uncertainty is part of the game. So the honor system is key.

4. With this method, there is still a chance at getting a stud Pitcher which is cool. Also, it can happen in any of the earlier rounds. I drafted a 99 POT Closer in the 3rd round who after using the Boom and Bust method, was labeled as a Boom and left untouched.

I'll post some updates later on once I get deep in my franchise.

Tell me what you think and provide any feedback.

[bobloblah1980]

Awesome ideas in theory . But the problem is that 99 guy you make a bust down to 85. will end up 90+ in the end because of the agressive progression with sp's.. give a go. Bit i believe in 4 years time he will be back to 90+ pot.. keep us updated on your progress though

[bigd51]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Awesome ideas in theory . But the problem is that 99 guy you make a bust down to 85. will end up 90+ in the end because of the agressive progression with sp's.. give a go. Bit i believe in 4 years time he will be back to 90+ pot.. keep us updated on your progress though

I find it easy, too, for pitcher to progress past his original potential. The rate at which they progress might be the issue instead of their ceiling. One thing I've noticed from RTTS is pitchers, catchers, and first basemen progress faster than the other positions on the field because they're directly involved in more defensive plays than the others, allowing to gain more XP per game played. This could translate to the progression system in Franchise.

Instead of lower just potential, you could try lowering their base stats and dropping their overall, thus leaving them with their original potential, but making it a little tougher and longer to reach their potential.

Right now, with the discoveries made regarding scouting possibly overloading the draft classes, I'm leaving my scouting set to manual so no players are discovered and just drafting what the CPU generates for the draft. So far, their aren't as many high potential pitchers in the draft, but I'm only year 2 into it. I'll have to test deeper in to know for sure if this is a decent workaround.

[KBLover]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Awesome ideas in theory . But the problem is that 99 guy you make a bust down to 85. will end up 90+ in the end because of the agressive progression with sp's..

You mean those emails?

So far, most of the ones I've gotten have been knocking down potential. Henderson Alvarez, for example, dropped to a C, Aaron Sanchez dropped from 97 to 87. And some guys in the minors went from C+ to C-.

Heck, even my prospect hitters have been hit. One dropped from a C+ to a D+ after doing nothing in AAA. Matt Baldwin might turn out fine overall (mostly because of his speed and defense), but he went from a solid A to a solid B.

I guess I just have bad luck lol.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

You mean those emails?

So far, most of the ones I've gotten have been knocking down potential. Henderson Alvarez, for example, dropped to a C, Aaron Sanchez dropped from 97 to 87. And some guys in the minors went from C+ to C-.

Heck, even my prospect hitters have been hit. One dropped from a C+ to a D+ after doing nothing in AAA. Matt Baldwin might turn out fine overall (mostly because of his speed and defense), but he went from a solid A to a solid B.

I guess I just have bad luck lol.

In my testing I see the same thing as you. POT is more likely to stay the same/decrease than increase by a 2:1 margin (meaning that this is basically true to the probability of being 1 out of 3 outcomes). There was a poster on here a few months ago trying to assert the same thing (that email-based progression/stock rising is out of control inflating POT) and I was pretty satisfied that my data proved that hypothesis to be untrue.

The culprit is the draft classes themselves (the starting point) not progression after they join the roster.

[plak89]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

In my testing I see the same thing as you. POT is more likely to stay the same/decrease than increase by a 2:1 margin (meaning that this is basically true to the probability of being 1 out of 3 outcomes). There was a poster on here a few months ago trying to assert the same thing (that email-based progression/stock rising is out of control inflating POT) and I was pretty satisfied that my data proved that hypothesis to be untrue.

The culprit is the draft classes themselves (the starting point) not progression after they join the roster.

This is great news if true. Then the only thing one would have to do is do the initial editing to pitchers POT and you'd be good to go!

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Just did a 10 year sim...as I suspected in year 10 the ranks of the A POT guys throughout the league are almost entirely made up of players drafted during that 10 year stretch with just some OSFM players sprinkled in (again hinting that progression is not the issue).

The number of A POT players in each year's draft varied from 8 to 19 players and seemed to follow a pattern (though it's hard to discern from a sample size of 1 sim) where there is a "bust" year of about 8 A's, then a "boom" year of about 18 A's, then a "neutral" year of about 12 A's.

All in all, there were 121 A prospects drafted over those 10 years, which is 12 or so per year. In my estimation, if you edit that down to about half, you'll be in good shape in terms of matching the composition of how the roster starts out. The roster I am working on starts with 57 A POT players in it as a point of reference.

I didn't look at the B prospects since there are quite a bit more of them.

[plak89]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Just did a 10 year sim...as I suspected in year 10 the ranks of the A POT guys throughout the league are almost entirely made up of players drafted during that 10 year stretch with just some OSFM players sprinkled in (again hinting that progression is not the issue).

The number of A POT players in each year's draft varied from 8 to 19 players and seemed to follow a pattern (though it's hard to discern from a sample size of 1 sim) where there is a "bust" year of about 8 A's, then a "boom" year of about 18 A's, then a "neutral" year of about 12 A's.

All in all, there were 121 A prospects drafted over those 10 years, which is 12 or so per year. In my estimation, if you edit that down to about half, you'll be in good shape in terms of matching the composition of how the roster starts out. The roster I am working on starts with 57 A POT players in it as a point of reference.

I didn't look at the B prospects since there are quite a bit more of them.

Interesting. Good work. I wonder if the B's would be a problem though, because it seems a lot of them progress to A's from what I've heard.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

Interesting. Good work. I wonder if the B's would be a problem though, because it seems a lot of them progress to A's from what I've heard.

While having too many B's in the drafts could be an issue, again, I don't think progression is a problem. When looking at the A POT guys in year 10 of my sim, very few OSFM players that did not start out as an A ended up as an A. Maybe...maybe 1 player per team. But then you have guys who started as an A and didn't stay that way. It averages out.

If they give us a draft class editor, we can get it about perfect.

[plak89]

Re: BA/Hits drop off cliff simming 8+ seasons into Franchise

While having too many B's in the drafts could be an issue, again, I don't think progression is a problem. When looking at the A POT guys in year 10 of my sim, very few OSFM players that did not start out as an A ended up as an A. Maybe...maybe 1 player per team.

If they give us a draft class editor, we can get it about perfect.

Ok, I see what you're saying. So basically just have to worry about the A rated pitchers and make sure there's only about a half dozen of them per draft and you're good.