What is WAR?

[redsox4evur]

Re: What is WAR?

So just to help me understand, someones war depends on who is backing them up? In other words if Mike Trouts replacement was Andre Mccutchen would him war look different?

No like was said earlier it's the amount of wins a player adds over an AAAA player.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: What is WAR?

So just to help me understand, someones war depends on who is backing them up? In other words if Mike Trouts replacement was Andre Mccutchen would him war look different?

The way I've heard it explained, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the # wins added over an "Average" player. I'm not sure if the average is league average, or even how that average is calculated. Your guess is as good as mine.

[Br_Mac16]

Re: What is WAR?

WAR: Wins Above Replacement
Replacement is anyone considered just below league average. This is any MLB player who is considered a viable back up option that would not hurt your team but wouldn't necessarily help your team either.
A player's WAR represents the number of wins a player can conceivably earn you over the course of a season.
0 WAR is the starting point.
A poor defensive player can have a negative WAR if they don't hit well enough to to make up for their poor defense.
So, in essence, WAR takes into account all batting and fielding stats and provides a nice clean value for each player.
Thanks the best I can do!

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: What is WAR?

The way I've heard it explained, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the # wins added over an "Average" player. I'm not sure if the average is league average, or even how that average is calculated. Your guess is as good as mine.

The "R" in WAR stands for "replacement" not "average." If it were average, we'd call the acronym WAA (sort of like a baby crying) not WAR. Replacement level is the skill level of an idealized, fictional player that is a bit too good for AAA, but not good enough to hang in MLB. Essentially, WAR measures how much better, in terms of wins, your guy is versus this fictional player that teams could randomly plug in instead by combing through the minors/indy leagues/foreign FAs. These baseball "lifers" who don't quite have the skill to succeed in MLB are everywhere, which is important to the theory.

It's also important to realize that "replacement" doesn't mean "off the street" either. The replacement level guy still has some serious baseball skills, but just not so much compared to the best league on the planet. So say Mike Trout has 9.3 WAR; it's not like plugging in your neighborhood garbage man into CF for the Angels will make them 9 wins worse. It would probably be much worse than that.

You guys who are asking about WAR are going to need to do some reading to really understand the concept. I wouldn't expect a full breakdown of it on OS forums, but someone already gave a link to FanGraphs that explains how they calculate WAR. If people are really interested, it'll probably take them a few hours of Googling the topic (or more if they don't get math) and looking at some different things before it sinks in a bit better.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: What is WAR?

Also, in retrospect, this thread would probably be better served in the Pro Baseball forum and not in the video game forum. It'll get more views here I guess. Not really on topic though.

[Br_Mac16]

Re: What is WAR?

Also, in retrospect, this thread would probably be better served in the Pro Baseball forum and not in the video game forum. It'll get more views here I guess. Not really on topic though.

I think it works here because it is something new included in the game. A lot of people have no idea what the stat means. Seems appropriate...

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: What is WAR?

I think it works here because it is something new included in the game. A lot of people have no idea what the stat means. Seems appropriate...

Sure, it's not the worst place ever for this topic, but I think a lot of the gamers who play the video game and have questions about these types of things could stand to learn a lot more from the people who tend to post in the Pro Baseball forum.

[SmooveMove]

Re: What is WAR?

The "R" in WAR stands for "replacement" not "average." If it were average, we'd call the acronym WAA (sort of like a baby crying) not WAR. Replacement level is the skill level of an idealized, fictional player that is a bit too good for AAA, but not good enough to hang in MLB. Essentially, WAR measures how much better, in terms of wins, your guy is versus this fictional player that teams could randomly plug in instead by combing through the minors/indy leagues/foreign FAs. These baseball "lifers" who don't quite have the skill to succeed in MLB are everywhere, which is important to the theory.

It's also important to realize that "replacement" doesn't mean "off the street" either. The replacement level guy still has some serious baseball skills, but just not so much compared to the best league on the planet. So say Mike Trout has 9.3 WAR; it's not like plugging in your neighborhood garbage man into CF for the Angels will make them 9 wins worse. It would probably be much worse than that.

You guys who are asking about WAR are going to need to do some reading to really understand the concept. I wouldn't expect a full breakdown of it on OS forums, but someone already gave a link to FanGraphs that explains how they calculate WAR. If people are really interested, it'll probably take them a few hours of Googling the topic (or more if they don't get math) and looking at some different things before it sinks in a bit better.

I think you just did a great job of explaining it actually, it's at least as much as I'll ever really need to know about the stat. It seems like a great basic way of calculating the worth of a guy on your team when compared to how much you're paying them, and of really showing who the superstars are.

[Scott]

Re: What is WAR?

To put it into perspective, the following batters had a 0.0 WAR

SS J.J. Hardy
OF David Murphy
C Chris Herrman
OF Michael Taylor
IF Josh Rutledge

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: What is WAR?

I think you just did a great job of explaining it actually, it's at least as much as I'll ever really need to know about the stat. It seems like a great basic way of calculating the worth of a guy on your team when compared to how much you're paying them, and of really showing who the superstars are.

Glad it was of some use to you.

As for the Googling around or not, it really depends how deep you want to go...to each their own. To get a complete understanding, there are things like different calculations (different websites do the math in different ways), what all the components are that go into it (offense, defense, baserunning, position, playing time, park adjustment, etc..) and how those are calculated. Other things like what is a "good" WAR and what is a "great" WAR? How is it done for pitchers? What is a player really worth with XX amount of WAR? It can be a pretty deep rabbit hole to go down if you really want to know all about it, which is probably what keeps a lot of people from learning more.

[Arod2k9]

Re: What is WAR?

WAR is the reason Jason Heyward was offered over 200 millions by a couple of teams. The GMs of this generation view the game different than those of 1970 due to sabermetrics. Heyward settled for 184M, after just hitting 13 homers and 60 rbis. But his defense is so great that makes him a top 8 WAR guy. I by no means puts much emphasis on WAR but as this new age baseball era continues then the Show must also integrated into the game.


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[AC]

Re: What is WAR?

The sum of a player's value contributed above average in offense, defense, and base running compared to replacement level (approximately 20 runs per 600 PA). They are then credited for the position they play.

Offense: +10 runs better than a league average hitter
Defense: -5 runs worse than a league average fielder
Base running: 0 runs better/worse than a league average runner
PA: 600 (+20) (Played a full season)
Position: -7.5 (corner OF)

This is a typical corner outfield profile, which leaves us with +17.5 runs above average. Since about 10 runs equal one win, this is approximately 2 WAR.

The most important thing to keep in mind about WAR is that it's not predictive, it's descriptive. Just because Danny Santana went out and put up 4 WAR doesn't mean that's his true talent, it's just a reflection of the best measure of what we have that happened.

Those credits are all pretty simple to calculate. Offense is just a comparison of wOBA to league wOBA (generally .314). wOBA is like OBP but weighted like slugging.
Fielding is UZR, which is a black-box stat, making it extremely difficult to evaluate. It's very noisy year to year, and takes about 3 years to become reliable. With the emergence of statcast this will be much improved. Baserunning is a kind of play-by-play thing. Who takes extra bases, steals, etc.
Replacement level was calculated based on how a AAA/free agent team would perform over a full year, roughly.
Positional adjustment was calculated using a lot of study about switching positions and some approximation but I've never seen any actual criticism of it aside from maybe first basemen who don't like being 2nd last (when I play, I play first base and really don't find this too objectionable). The results make intuitive sense.

Pitching is harder to calculate but a simpler concept. It's just a comparison of FIP to league average FIP spread out over how many innings are pitched and what portion is from relief versus out of the bullpen.

And all of this is park-adjusted. This is all for FanGraphs WAR which is much better than BP WAR, mainly because it uses wOBA instead of OPS for batters and FIP instead of ERA for pitchers (and BP's defense seems even wonkier than FanGraphs but I have no substantive evidence to back that up with).

[TheWarmWind]

Re: What is WAR?

Maybe it would be helpful to talk about the OTHER advanced statistics that help make up WAR. I'm personally curious about UZR, FIP and any other of the advanced statistics, especially how they could be implemented or helpful in the show.

[kehlis]

Re: What is WAR?

Maybe it would be helpful to talk about the OTHER advanced statistics that help make up WAR. I'm personally curious about UZR, FIP and any other of the advanced statistics, especially how they could be implemented or helpful in the show.

Nah, let's not overcomplicate this thread with the advanced stats.

Let's keep the topic on WAR as simple as possible. As previously mentioned. We're already veering off topic but it is helpful for those who don't understand it at all to get a basic understanding.

There are other ways to learn about other advanced stats if you or others want to.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: What is WAR?

Nah, let's not overcomplicate this thread with the advanced stats.

Let's keep the topic on WAR as simple as possible. As previously mentioned. We're already veering off topic but it is helpful for those who don't understand it at all to get a basic understanding.

There are other ways to learn about other advanced stats if you or others want to.

But I'm laaaaazy... I'll comply though.