MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I don't think we're gonna see great defensive metrics from the show. Statcast defense produces like 1 TB of data... per game.They'll need to get extremely creative. Maybe they could limit that data somehow in some programmy-ways I won't get into this second

[Tmizzle]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

So i offered Nunez to the Giants just to see how easy it would be to mirror the deal and it seems I can get someone else including Adalberto Mejia. Any ideas or should I just completely mirror the deal?

[Franchize34]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Cards need a CF so I'm offering Tilson, a B prospect and a C reliever and C starter for Osdubel Hererra. Fair?


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[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Well...they have route errors in the game so how bad the error is could represent route efficiency.

Throws presumably have velocities (just like batted balls) so it could be a matter of showing/using that (just like batted balls). Same for throw accuracy.

I think it might actually be easier to use "Statcast-ish" data because a game can just generate what needs to be tracked, measured, stored and calculated irl. Game could generate it on the fly, calc the stat change, and move on to the next.

That's what actually annoys me. To me, the game is *this close* to doing it as it stands (in a lot of places), but just needs to take one more step forward.

A black and white route judgement is significantly less complex than the efficiency of the route.

Wasn't really thinking about arm strength.

Obviously it would be easy to generate and store and compute but you aren't considering how massive that would make the game. Having the players in their own uniforms in the ASG caused a storage overload in this game. How much extra data do you think they can track?

In 2015 there were like 124,365 BIP outcomes. If they efficiently programmed this, they would not store the variables used to compute the statistics. The run speed, the first step, the efficiency. It would spit out one final RAA value, with the computational values being utilized at run time only. Which I have full confidence in SCEA to be able to do, I doubt it would be difficult to do that and I know they'd do it efficiently. However, a few things:

One, is it really worth all the trouble for just a more accurate fielding RAA value when you can't see the breakdown? Where's the fun in hitting WAR when we can't see the guy's wOBA and triple slash?

Two, would it really be that accurate? Sure, it'd be on par with public stuff, but public stuff isn't perfect yet. Tango's going hard on research with statcast OF data and MLBAM has really kicked into gear, and I know some people who have done fantastic work with, well, exactly what you want. They aren't public, though. It's not like calculating wRC+, which may not be perfect, but is damn well worth calculating.

Three, it is a lot of trouble. There were 124,365 BIP outcomes in 2016. Assuming you don't want a breakdown of data, that's one thing. A bare bones fielding metric is honestly probably possible.

Spoiler

Ideally you'd have an overall route efficiency RAA, overall athleticism (speed/first step), etc, so let's say we'd have 3-4 fields. 3-4 fields for each BIP object is another 435,300 variates. If you want it without even a decimal point (you are REALLY watering it down at this point), you'd use an int or whatever their equivalent; that is 13,928,880 bytes, or 14 megabytes. Now, that's not that big; but if you want that stored for franchise seasons, they need the capability or what, 25+ seasons? So that's an extra 350 mb. Hell, you might be able to store them as shorts/bytes, which would half/quarter it. So that's entirely obtainable, I think, assuming you calculate most of the data at run time without storing it.

But if you want real statcast data, you are looking a TON of things. Positioning data; total run speed; max run speed; first step; throwing velo; baserunning route efficiency; fielding route efficiency; bat speed; exit velo; i'm not gonna go on. You would have to store these things, obviously, for consumption. This is why Statcast is SO huge.

Spoiler

For efficiency, there won't be game logs or specific plays: but, there will be many more stored variables. I'll say 10, at least, and they're probably stored as doubles. So now we're at like 80 mb per season, with a necessary storage capacity of an almost extra 2 GB for a comprehensive fielding breakdown for statcast-esque stuff. If you want RTTS that's another bit too assuming it only tracks your player (if you want all players then it's now 4 GB).

I'm pretty sure MLB 2k10 was 2.1 GB, lol.

A PS4 disc can hold 25 GB of data per layer (per what I can find). The Show is at 41. For a comprehensive statcast breakdown, it would have to essentially be the only added feature to Franchise. I would much rather a Create-A-Stadium and related things. I know they could get rid of some of the obsolete stats but most of them are added based on already existent stats; H, SLG, etc. ISO isn't obsolete by any means but it's a good example; it's created off of SLG-AVG, neither of which are going anywhere. The storage those stats take up is obsolete.

tl;dr you can probably get watered down Statcast but like, really? Eh.

Major disclaimer with this post is that it's probably all wrong. I'm all hopped up on painkillers from surgery but if you call me out for being wrong, I'll just say that you're bullying me in a disadvantaged state, you terrible person.




sources: some googling, a strong hatred of Java including nearly finishing the AP Exam and a decent mark in the course, a very strong hatred of Java, a decent knowledge of the workings of statcast

[redsoxfan31]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Assuming Yasiel Puig has similar stats to his in real life ones this year, what would it take to get him? Is his value any less with Josh Reddick out there now?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Cards need a CF so I'm offering Tilson, a B prospect and a C reliever and C starter for Osdubel Hererra. Fair?


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I don't think that gets it done, and I don't really see a rebuilding Philly team wanting to sell an asset like Hererra. I know he was Rule 5 but he has played like a borderline star. Tilson was just traded for Duke so that probably tells enough about his ability to headline a package for anything substantial.

I'm not saying you would need to deal Reyes, but if you've soured on Grichuk I think something could be done there. That way Philly gets a controllable asset and you can get the CF you wanted

[KBLover]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I'll just say that you're bullying me in a disadvantaged state, you terrible person.

I'd never do such a thing. I still remember all the help you gave me in working my spreadsheet when I wanted to calculate WAR manually.

You make a lot of good points...

...Individual uniforms caused storage issues? In a modern game? Wow. Thought I'd never hear that kind of thing again once we hit the 21st century!

[Daonlyjmo7]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey guys, at the deadline in my Padres franchise in Year 1. We are in last in the NL West with a record of 45-59. Looking to sell, especially looking to trade Tyson Ross.

Ross has a good year so far. He is 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 9.51 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, and a 2.5 WAR. The two teams that I have that would be interested in him are the Cubs and the Rangers. Other pieces I could package to these teams would be Derek Norris (.262/.341/.402 7 HR 48 RBI 1.7 WAR) and Francisco Rodney (2.57 ERA 2.87 FIP 9.03 K/9 4.05 BB/9 15 SV).

From the Cubs, I like Gleyber Torres (AA .278/.352/.420 8 HR 43 RBI 21 SB), Billy McKinney (AAA .258/.355/.401 1 HR 35 RBI) and CJ Edwards (MLB 10 G 0 GS 2.31 ERA .851 WHIP). I also like Ian Happ. Vogelbach as well but to a lesser extent. I don't think Cubs would trade Schwarber/Soler/Baez in a Ross deal but I would love to know if any of you guys think differently.

From the Rangers, I like Lewis Brinson (AA .231/.290/.428 11 HR 13 SB 21% K), Joey Gallo (AAA .218/.303/.504 43% K 17 HR), Michael Matuella/Dillon Tate (both just came off DL), and Connor Sadzeck.

I would love to here your guys' opinions.

Thanks

Nice post and welcome to OS. For Cubs, you are right about Schwarber/Soler/Baez. I would say Torres/Edwards/Happ or McKinney would be fair. As for the Rangers, I would say Brinson might be a little out of reach. So maybe Tate/Matuella/someone. I don't know. I would wait for someone else until you make the trade for sure because I still am fairly new here and sometimes get biased, especially considering I love the Padres (3rd fav team) and am doing a franchise of them as well.

[AC]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

I'd never do such a thing. I still remember all the help you gave me in working my spreadsheet when I wanted to calculate WAR manually.

You make a lot of good points...

...Individual uniforms caused storage issues? In a modern game? Wow. Thought I'd never hear that kind of thing again once we hit the 21st century!

Think about it tho. You can't just call Player.Team.Jersey or something. Or else you'd be able to have the Jays call the Pirates jerseys if they weren't locked or something. You'd have to include all 15 league team jerseys for each all star team. Don't know if I'm explaining that well.

Honestly my math didn't even need to be right (I haven't touched java in months and that's what the example I used was even tho that's not what the game is made in). The general point is that the storage used rises exponentially for these kinds of features expanding, and there's only so much that can be done when massive new features are constantly being implemented (SCEA really does change things up year to year and keeps it fresh).

Hope the spreadsheet is going well. Ross Atkins just went on record saying that 5 starting pitcher innings aren't as valuable as two high leverage innings (in regards to Sanchez, I think). One, holy **** @ having an FO as smart as that. Finally. Two, think I'm gonna do some research into how we can adjust WAR for leverage.

Anyway, enough of me using drugs as an excuse to take this thread wildly off topic.

[HighCmpPct]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey guys first time in this thread this year. Just wanted to get some of your feedback on my trades so far in my Nats chise. And to also show what's easily my favorite trade I've ever made in a baseball game.

For some points of my chise just check my Sig lol.

Anyway here we go!

1st trade May 1st, just lost Revere for 2+ months.
Was trades RP Blake Treinen 27yo 72ovr Cpot
LAA trades OF Quinton Berry 31yo 73ovr Cpot

This is easily the saviest trade I think I've ever made on a game. Treinen was in AAA as was Berry for them. Since the just over 2 months after the trade Berry has been amazing in the leadoff spot for me, here's his stats.

Quinton Berry .315avg 3he 18rbi 8sb 26r .392obp .462slg 22bb 16 doubles 2 triples 5assists and a 1.58war

2nd trade May 21st Royals have two starters on DL for 2-3 months and I need some offensive help.

Was trades SP Gio Gonzalez 30yo 79ovr Boot
KC trades 1B Kendrys Morales 32yo 83ovr Boot

3rd trade July 3rd SD is well put of the race
WAS trades OF Victor Robles 18yo 66ovr Bpot, RP Trevor Gott 23yo 79ovr Cpot, and 3B Anderson Franco 18yo 58ovr Cpot
SD trades 3B Yangervis Solarte 28yo 79ovr Boot

4th trade July 3rd STL is also well out of contention
WAS trades SP Reynaldo Lopez 23yo 68ovr Bpot, SP Tanner Roark 29yo 76ovr Bpot, and SS Lourdes Gourriel Jr. 22Yo 69ovr Boot
STL trades SP Jaime Garcia 29yo 83ovr Boot

Well there you have em'! So what y'all think?

[Sgexpat]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

To the sox fan I debated on this earlier.

I guess the CLE FO was indeed dumb enough to trade our #1 prospect + for Andrew Miller. You were right and I wasn't.

I will love watching Miller mow guys down, no doubt. But seems like an overpay.

[Daonlyjmo7]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey guys first time in this thread this year. Just wanted to get some of your feedback on my trades so far in my Nats chise. And to also show what's easily my favorite trade I've ever made in a baseball game.

For some points of my chise just check my Sig lol.

Anyway here we go!

1st trade May 1st, just lost Revere for 2+ months.
Was trades RP Blake Treinen 27yo 72ovr Cpot
LAA trades OF Quinton Berry 31yo 73ovr Cpot

This is easily the saviest trade I think I've ever made on a game. Treinen was in AAA as was Berry for them. Since the just over 2 months after the trade Berry has been amazing in the leadoff spot for me, here's his stats.

Quinton Berry .315avg 3he 18rbi 8sb 26r .392obp .462slg 22bb 16 doubles 2 triples 5assists and a 1.58war

2nd trade May 21st Royals have two starters on DL for 2-3 months and I need some offensive help.

Was trades SP Gio Gonzalez 30yo 79ovr Boot
KC trades 1B Kendrys Morales 32yo 83ovr Boot

3rd trade July 3rd SD is well put of the race
WAS trades OF Victor Robles 18yo 66ovr Bpot, RP Trevor Gott 23yo 79ovr Cpot, and 3B Anderson Franco 18yo 58ovr Cpot
SD trades 3B Yangervis Solarte 28yo 79ovr Boot

4th trade July 3rd STL is also well out of contention
WAS trades SP Reynaldo Lopez 23yo 68ovr Bpot, SP Tanner Roark 29yo 76ovr Bpot, and SS Lourdes Gourriel Jr. 22Yo 69ovr Boot
STL trades SP Jaime Garcia 29yo 83ovr Boot

Well there you have em'! So what y'all think?

All of them look very good/realistic. Good job.

[Tmizzle]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

Couple guys have PM'ed me and asked how Steven Souza Jr has done so far in my season. As you know, earlier in my season I dealt Plouffe and a prospect for him. Both players were having very bad starts to the start of the year. When I dealt for Souza, he was hitting .160 with no home runs and only 3 RBI's. Plouffe was off to a slow start as well as he was hitting .190 with 1 home run and I can't remember the rest of his stats. But now we will look how each player are producing on their respective teams leading up to the all star break. Also, on my franchise thread, will post mid season stats for anyone interested watching my franchise.

Steven Souza Jr G 64 AB 248 R 31 H 68 HR 16 RBI 33 SB 0 AVG .274 OBP .297 SLG .500 OPS .797 BB 8 SO 70 2B 6 3B 1 WAR 0.86

Trevor Plouffe G 77 AB 292 R 38 H 77 HR 8 RBI 37 SB 0 AVG .264 OBP .322
SLG .414 OPS 736 BB 24 SO 51 2B 20 3B 0 WAR 0.50

It looks like both players have both improved their play with a change of scenery. Both teams are in 1st place and both are being used everyday. This is a nice thing to see as a trade helps both sides.

[CBoller1331]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

All of them look very good/realistic. Good job.

I wouldn't have traded four players for Yangervis Solarte, and I wouldn't have Victor Robles headline that deal but besides that the rest look good.

[kenp86]

Re: MLB 16 Trade Discussion Thread

What's Joey vottos value? Similar, almost identical numbers as rl reds are way out. Could I get Vladimir guerrero Jr from Toronto? Toronto getting nothing from their first baseman