MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[Brandwin]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I am the Rangers and we just started June. We are 30 and 27 after winning 6 straight and in 3rd. 1.5 behind Seattle for second and 6.5 behind the Angles for first 0.5 out of wildcard The first two months I just knew I was going to be a team that was selling come trade deadline (and still may do it) but we got on a roll and things are looking good.

I want to add some speed and the Reds have placed Billy Hamilton on the block. The reds 3rd in the Central at 26-32 and 13.5 back of the Cubs 4.5 from wildcard behind 7 other teams.

Hamilton's stats -
.232 avg
.266 OBP
.606 OPS
3 hr
14 RBI
17 SB

He is in his last year if his deal, but only 26 years old. Right now Gomez, Deshields and Mazar are my every day starters in outfield. Choo can't stay healthy and when he is has struggled big time.

Any thoughts on how to realistically make this work?

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[TGov]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Do you guys use some sort of system to value trades?

I always feel like I'm cheating when I trade. I just used the "suggested trades" thing, and so many of the offers were ridiculously in my favor.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Do you guys use some sort of system to value trades?

I always feel like I'm cheating when I trade. I just used the "suggested trades" thing, and so many of the offers were ridiculously in my favor.

We use this thread to keep us on level trades. There are lots of us on here happy to give an opinion and it's just that. An opinion not a ruling or anything like that

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[bobbyb9827]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

In my Yankees franchise at the deadline. Red Sox just traded Benintendi to the Dodgers for Urias straight up. Was wondering if this is completely unrealistic or seems fair?

[pickle2002]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Hi, I'm with the Jays in my franchise and I'm wanting a new lefty for my bullpen. Loup and Howell are currently my two lefties in my pen, loup has actually been very good for me (era under 1.20) but Howell has a era over 5.50. A guy I like is Kyle Crockett from the Indians. Cleveland already have two good lefties (Logan and Miller) and Crockett is stuck down in AAA.

I would like to know the cost for Crockett, would two Cs be enough or too much?
Thanks.

[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Looking at the standings after the first month of the season. There are 5 teams 8 games back of the wild card spot. Milwaukee, Washington, Oakland, Miami and San Diego.

Looking at the Brewers and nationals. What would it cost for Braun or Daniel Murphy from the Blue Jays? Would either be attainable if their teams are out of it?


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[milldaddy35]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

What would CF Jake Marisnick cost from the San Fransisco Giants? I am the Twins. Jake is hitting .167/.194/.200. I am interested in acquiring him because he plays good defense and I need a fourth outfielder, all of mine are hurt. Just wondering what the Giants would be seeking in return.

Thoughts, please?

[Skates0515]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

What would be some realistic trade options for McCutchen, Cole, Mercer, Nova, and Watson as I'm looking to rebuild the pirates

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Jake Lamb continued…(this is for the fellow baseball nerds, everyone else can skip to the end)

There are a lot of things I can refer to when validating my opinion of J.Lamb. Most significant is that his ’16 was not a good representation of the player he is due to injury (and that ’16 was pretty good with the exception of 20 errors committed). A bruised left hand in late-July most likely contributed to his 2nd half fall off when he posted a 983 v. 663 OPS split over the first/second half. I point to that as he posted a 1.014 OPS v. RHP before the injury and .704 OPS v. RHP after the injury. The left hand for him is his top hand and if there is any pain through the swing pattern, you’re simply going to fail on your follow thru. I can’t tell you what happened to his defense but we’ll circle back to that later. Though I have a reason to validate his 2nd half fall off, that reason is more anecdotal than fact. So below is my attempt based solely on data that projects his value over the next four years (this year and his following 3 years of arbitration).

The most difficult part of this process was finding a model to project his arbitration earnings beginning in ’18. After quite a bit of searching, I settled on Wil Myers (Padres) as the player that was first year eligible and had the closest stats I could find that an arbitrator would use to base value on (using ’16 as full season data). Arbitration earnings are mostly valued with avg/hr/rbi/sb/pa (this is important to remember for later).

W.Myers – 259/28/94/28/676
J.Lamb – 249/29/91/6/594

The mid-point for Myers was 3.7mm. He then screwed up my whole comparison by signing an extension that bought out that first year @ 2mm. Considering Myers numbers were better than Lamb (more so in SB and some PA), I made an arbitrary correction and decided Lamb’s first year of arb (’18) would be set at 3mm. After that, things got a bit easier. I projected, using a secret conservative formula, Lamb’s next years of arb at 5.25mm (’19) and 7.5mm (’20). I then used a Steamer projection of 2.2 fWAR (’17) and again, using a secret conservative formula, projected his fWAR for the following seasons at 2.7 (’18), 2.4 (’19) and 2.9 (’20). After valuing a win at 10mm for ’17 (though I found some conflicting info stating 9mm, I decided since I’ve been using 10 all year, no need to change now) and projecting an increase of 5% annually, did the simple math and came to the conclusion that J.Lamb has a surplus value through 2020 of 94.75mm including the full year of ‘17…or almost twice that of A.McCutchen.

Am I saying that J.Lamb is twice as good as A.McCutchen? Absolutely not. Is most of my data based on hokey-pokey, thumb-in-the-eye type of measurements? Somewhat, but not as much as you might think. Part of the flaw here is that I am ‘projecting’ what a player will do and projecting again what he may earn based on those projections (projection = educated guess). When calculating surplus based on future arbitration earnings and fWAR value you are using one set of numbers based on the above data (see, I told you to remember) and another set of numbers based on myriad of factors, some of which translate back to arb earnings and others (wOBA is a good example) that value other factors differently that have nothing to do with arb earnings. In summary, for those still reading, one poster had J.Lamb between 85-95mm surplus while I was valuing him in the 110mm range. Some questions arose from the ranking of prospects versus FV but that is a different topic for a different time. With tweaks to the numbers I used he could be as low as 75mm or as high as 120mm. Meaning…we’re both right, and we’re both wrong. Welcome to baseball and the thread of trade value opinions.

If there are other ‘nerds’ in the thread tonight, I would like opinions on what I’ve come up with. I want to be better at this so tell me where I’m wrong or where I could do better. Otherwise, since it seems I’ve priced my O’s out of the Lamb market, I’m done with Mr. Lamb for this season.

[kmoser]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Thoughts, please?

It wouldn't take too much to get him. He's got gold glove caliber defense and solid speed but his bat is pretty underwhelming. I'd say a solid C potential young prospect and another low end C pot. prospect. If you don't want to give up prospects you could offer a decent reliever if you're willing to part with one.


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[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

I am the Rangers and we just started June. We are 30 and 27 after winning 6 straight and in 3rd. 1.5 behind Seattle for second and 6.5 behind the Angles for first 0.5 out of wildcard The first two months I just knew I was going to be a team that was selling come trade deadline (and still may do it) but we got on a roll and things are looking good.

I want to add some speed and the Reds have placed Billy Hamilton on the block. The reds 3rd in the Central at 26-32 and 13.5 back of the Cubs 4.5 from wildcard behind 7 other teams.

Hamilton's stats -
.232 avg
.266 OBP
.606 OPS
3 hr
14 RBI
17 SB

He is in his last year if his deal, but only 26 years old. Right now Gomez, Deshields and Mazar are my every day starters in outfield. Choo can't stay healthy and when he is has struggled big time.

Any thoughts on how to realistically make this work?

Sent from my Pixel XL using Operation Sports mobile app

Low B SP prospect and high C positional prospect.

Do you guys use some sort of system to value trades?

I always feel like I'm cheating when I trade. I just used the "suggested trades" thing, and so many of the offers were ridiculously in my favor.

90% of the data I used to put together my attempt at a J.Lamb profile was obtained from Fangraphs website.

In my Yankees franchise at the deadline. Red Sox just traded Benintendi to the Dodgers for Urias straight up. Was wondering if this is completely unrealistic or seems fair?

Completely unrealistic and a huge loss on the part of the Sox.

Hi, I'm with the Jays in my franchise and I'm wanting a new lefty for my bullpen. Loup and Howell are currently my two lefties in my pen, loup has actually been very good for me (era under 1.20) but Howell has a era over 5.50. A guy I like is Kyle Crockett from the Indians. Cleveland already have two good lefties (Logan and Miller) and Crockett is stuck down in AAA.

I would like to know the cost for Crockett, would two Cs be enough or too much?
Thanks.

Probably a bit too much but I have two words for you... Paco Rodriquez. He's a lefty FA that was cut in ST by the Braves. Young and not hard to make "happy" which will tick his OVR rating up a bit. Always pitches well in sims I run using OSFM 1.75.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Jake Lamb continued…(this is for the fellow baseball nerds, everyone else can skip to the end)

There are a lot of things I can refer to when validating my opinion of J.Lamb. Most significant is that his ’16 was not a good representation of the player he is due to injury (and that ’16 was pretty good with the exception of 20 errors committed). A bruised left hand in late-July most likely contributed to his 2nd half fall off when he posted a 983 v. 663 OPS split over the first/second half. I point to that as he posted a 1.014 OPS v. RHP before the injury and .704 OPS v. RHP after the injury. The left hand for him is his top hand and if there is any pain through the swing pattern, you’re simply going to fail on your follow thru. I can’t tell you what happened to his defense but we’ll circle back to that later. Though I have a reason to validate his 2nd half fall off, that reason is more anecdotal than fact. So below is my attempt based solely on data that projects his value over the next four years (this year and his following 3 years of arbitration).

The most difficult part of this process was finding a model to project his arbitration earnings beginning in ’18. After quite a bit of searching, I settled on Wil Myers (Padres) as the player that was first year eligible and had the closest stats I could find that an arbitrator would use to base value on (using ’16 as full season data). Arbitration earnings are mostly valued with avg/hr/rbi/sb/pa (this is important to remember for later).

W.Myers – 259/28/94/28/676
J.Lamb – 249/29/91/6/594

The mid-point for Myers was 3.7mm. He then screwed up my whole comparison by signing an extension that bought out that first year @ 2mm. Considering Myers numbers were better than Lamb (more so in SB and some PA), I made an arbitrary correction and decided Lamb’s first year of arb (’18) would be set at 3mm. After that, things got a bit easier. I projected, using a secret conservative formula, Lamb’s next years of arb at 5.25mm (’19) and 7.5mm (’20). I then used a Steamer projection of 2.2 fWAR (’17) and again, using a secret conservative formula, projected his fWAR for the following seasons at 2.7 (’18), 2.4 (’19) and 2.9 (’20). After valuing a win at 10mm for ’17 (though I found some conflicting info stating 9mm, I decided since I’ve been using 10 all year, no need to change now) and projecting an increase of 5% annually, did the simple math and came to the conclusion that J.Lamb has a surplus value through 2020 of 94.75mm including the full year of ‘17…or almost twice that of A.McCutchen.

Am I saying that J.Lamb is twice as good as A.McCutchen? Absolutely not. Is most of my data based on hokey-pokey, thumb-in-the-eye type of measurements? Somewhat, but not as much as you might think. Part of the flaw here is that I am ‘projecting’ what a player will do and projecting again what he may earn based on those projections (projection = educated guess). When calculating surplus based on future arbitration earnings and fWAR value you are using one set of numbers based on the above data (see, I told you to remember) and another set of numbers based on myriad of factors, some of which translate back to arb earnings and others (wOBA is a good example) that value other factors differently that have nothing to do with arb earnings. In summary, for those still reading, one poster had J.Lamb between 85-95mm surplus while I was valuing him in the 110mm range. Some questions arose from the ranking of prospects versus FV but that is a different topic for a different time. With tweaks to the numbers I used he could be as low as 75mm or as high as 120mm. Meaning…we’re both right, and we’re both wrong. Welcome to baseball and the thread of trade value opinions.

If there are other ‘nerds’ in the thread tonight, I would like opinions on what I’ve come up with. I want to be better at this so tell me where I’m wrong or where I could do better. Otherwise, since it seems I’ve priced my O’s out of the Lamb market, I’m done with Mr. Lamb for this season.

So then you'd also think Eugenio Suarez has that much value too? He's pre arb, he has a career wRC+ of 102 just like Lamb. Suarez is a better defender that can play SS and he has some pop with a prior 20+ HR season. I still think Shaw and his roughly 900 ABs at 98 wRC+ is a closer comp to Lamb than Wil Myers and his 112 wRC+ and more athleticism.

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[breaking_ankles99]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Hey, looking to beef up the dodgers to for a big run this year. What would it cost me to get Quintana from the sox or Gray from the athletics? Looking to keep to Bellinger so if keeping him takes Quintana off the table I'll just go after Gray. Thanks for the help!

[milldaddy35]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Need some thoughts on what Phil Hughes would bring in to the Twins. He is 1-4 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through 40 innings pitched. Teams looking for pitching are Baltimore, Texas, LAA, Cincinatti, and Atlanta.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Need some thoughts on what Phil Hughes would bring in to the Twins. He is 1-4 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through 40 innings pitched. Teams looking for pitching are Baltimore, Texas, LAA, Cincinatti, and Atlanta.

With those numbers and his contract, he's not worth anything really. Teams that are looking for pitching can find a guy in the minors to give them a 7.53 ERA

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