MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

1 high C SP prospect + lottery ticket. I'd even be willing to go 1 mid C position player + high risk lottery ticket. If he ever learns not to swing at every fastball/change up that comes his way, his value to move up.

I think I've said this before but I just don't like Peralta (now watch the O's trade for him at the break...yeesh).

See how easy it is to throw the metrics out the window and simply value a player based on ambiguous information?

Thanks. I kept it simple with 3-Team Trade.

TEX Receives:
Victor Alcantara

DET Receives:
Yasmany Tomas

ARI Receives:
Connor Sadzeck

I'm a big fan of Sadzeck IRL. He has a nasty curveball but he was stuck in AAA in Texas. Texas gets a slightly younger SP in Alcantara who has had some struggles but could potentially provide some bullpen help. Detroit gets the DH they badly need and I can move Sadzeck into a Long Relief role.

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Thus begins the debate on how to use the metrics while valuing a player/trade. I would love to use this data more in here as we discuss potential trades but rarely do we have to come to that level of detail because the majority of deals we throw around are for overpaid "stars" for prospects and this level of research requires a significant investment of time for both parties.

The metrics don't like Tomas. That's not a bad thing as there is a long list of players fans would consider good/very good that the numbers simply don't pan out for. Why is that? Because Tomas (and those other players) don't do well the things sabremetrics likes. Let's talk apples to apples (the players being bounced around are not good comps for Tomas). Let's look at a comparison of Tomas and J.Upton. What, J UP is a 130+mm player, former #1 overall pick?? Yes he is, but a side by side comparison shows us many similarities save 1... Walks. Upton walks at twice the rate of Tomas and since Runs scored are obviously weighted heavily in wRC+, Upton's scores for that category are significantly higher (you can't score if you aren't on base). However, if you look at wOBA for '13-'15 when Upton averaged a oWAR of 22, it is slightly lower than the wOBA for Tomas last year. Why? Because wOBA uses a value of .66 for a BB vs. OBP valuing it a 1.0. Walks...who needs 'em? There are too many factors to list that impact a player scoring a run (lineup, team, etc.) that a particular player has no control over.

That's an extremely brief beginning of a validation debate using metrics. It took 20 minutes or so to tinker with this and I didn't even explain it as well as I should have. In the spirit of full disclosure, I'm still not where I want to be when it comes to using this data as I typically will just hunt for the number that validates my opinion rather than using the data to form an opinion. As I said before, I'd like to see this thread start to work more of this type of thing into the conversation and I will take my own advice and begin to use some of it in my replies.

You gave up on Tomas too quick! He's not as bad as Gamecock is making him out but not as good as you have him (which can be the case with a lot of our conversations). We had the chance to get a good metrics debate going and you blew it Of course I tease, we'll wait for the next one to come around and I'll let Gamecock school me a little.

P.S. You are overpaying for Gray/Doolittle.

So the Upton/Tomas comparison makes some sense on the surface. Some notable differences between the two though:

Upton walks twice as ofter as Tomas using their career numbers. Upton has a career DRS of 0 and career UZR of -3.7 this is spanning over 11 years. Tomas managed to blow those numbers out of the water in 2 very short years. His career DRS is -29 and career UZR is -22.6. And these are accumulating stats we are talking about. So in less than 20% of the career length he is so much worse of a defender in the OF. Tomas is also a horrid baserunner with a career value of -7.1 Upton on the other hand has a baserunning value of 29.9 for his career.

With slugging though, Upton has a higher ISO at .205 where Tomas is .197. Tomas also strikes out slightly more frequently at 25.1% where Upton is at 24.7%

These are just some of the reasons that Upton is worth so much more than Tomas. And you threw out Upton being a $130 Million dollar man. Don't forget the Dbacks paid Tomas $68.5 million and any team that trades for him has to take on that high salary for a slugger who doesn't walk and can't even fake it in the field

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

So the Upton/Tomas comparison makes some sense on the surface. Some notable differences between the two though:

Upton walks twice as ofter as Tomas using their career numbers. Upton has a career DRS of 0 and career UZR of -3.7 this is spanning over 11 years. Tomas managed to blow those numbers out of the water in 2 very short years. His career DRS is -29 and career UZR is -22.6. And these are accumulating stats we are talking about. So in less than 20% of the career length he is so much worse of a defender in the OF. Tomas is also a horrid baserunner with a career value of -7.1 Upton on the other hand has a baserunning value of 29.9 for his career.

With slugging though, Upton has a higher ISO at .205 where Tomas is .197. Tomas also strikes out slightly more frequently at 25.1% where Upton is at 24.7%

These are just some of the reasons that Upton is worth so much more than Tomas. And you threw out Upton being a $130 Million dollar man. Don't forget the Dbacks paid Tomas $68.5 million and any team that trades for him has to take on that high salary for a slugger who doesn't walk and can't even fake it in the field

Exactly. I was going to use Trumbo (who I ended up comping his trade to BAL for the range provided earlier) but wanted to use a player everyone could agree is better and show 'how to use the data' when making comparisons. I showed how close they could be, you showed how J.Upton separates himself from the debate.

Then I come back (in this hypothetical) and say that Upton k% has increased over the last 4 years. I then go in to how defensive metrics are difficult to quantify but agree it appears that sometimes, Tomas doesn't know which hand to put his glove on. We both agree he's a far better base runner (speed has a lot to do with that) but overall is simply a better ball player.

You've mentioned the Tomas contract several times and aside from the 14mm signing bonus, it's really not that bad. It's back loaded with 15.5 and 17 for the last 2 years and by '19, a win should cost a shade over 11mm (increasing approx. 5%/yr). That means Tomas has to be a tick above 1 WAR by '19 (pushing 1.5 in '20) to be surplus neutral (you got what you paid for) and anything over and above is bonus. I believe he can hit his way to that. Since we have nothing in his development to go off of, I think another 1000 AB's are in order before we stamp bust on him. That brings him to those final 2 years of his deal. (I have no idea what Steamer is doing projecting him at 98 games this year?)

[bestbrother]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The Royals are in freefall in my game and seemingly real life. With that in mind and what the experts seem to suggest, ive decided that Kansas City is the place for me to go shopping.

Note I will be shopping A-Gon and Turner based on this potential deal, sending them somewhere for little return.

KC Royals send:
Eric Hosmer
Lorenzo Cain
Mike Moustakas

LA Dodgers send:
Julio Urias

Then its a mix of either
Alex Verdugo / Andrew Toles / Willie Calhoun / Yadier Alvarez

and either
Andre Either / Scott Kazmir / Adrian Gonzalez

Would it happen irl, probably not, but all I want to know is if the AI is getting something fair in return for 3 expirings. They will get 2 solid prospects and a large expiring back.

I might take Moustakas out of there and stick with Turner at 3rd for now, given he has 3 years remaining and is a solid defensive glove.

Definitely going for it though, im 15-25 and I want to have fun, its a punt but im the Dodgers and a 90 loss season is unthinkable.

[BDiDC]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

What is the collective thought on the value of Inciarte in ATL? I am quickly falling out of contention and he is one of the few vets with value. Comparable value to Eaton deal as gold glove legit leadoff hitter?

Kemp and Markakis are also having pretty good seasons so may be able to get a couple hot dogs for them, but really just looking to shed salary to go after Machado or Harper in the offseason.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Operation Sports mobile app

[brandonholmes]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The Royals are in freefall in my game and seemingly real life. With that in mind and what the experts seem to suggest, ive decided that Kansas City is the place for me to go shopping.

Note I will be shopping A-Gon and Turner based on this potential deal, sending them somewhere for little return.

KC Royals send:
Eric Hosmer
Lorenzo Cain
Mike Moustakas

LA Dodgers send:
Julio Urias

Then its a mix of either
Alex Verdugo / Andrew Toles / Willie Calhoun / Yadier Alvarez

and either
Andre Either / Scott Kazmir / Adrian Gonzalez

Would it happen irl, probably not, but all I want to know is if the AI is getting something fair in return for 3 expirings. They will get 2 solid prospects and a large expiring back.

I might take Moustakas out of there and stick with Turner at 3rd for now, given he has 3 years remaining and is a solid defensive glove.

Definitely going for it though, im 15-25 and I want to have fun, its a punt but im the Dodgers and a 90 loss season is unthinkable.

Urias could headline something better than that. Don't get me wrong Hosmer, Cain and Moose are all fine players, but you could snag a superstar and a couple good pieces of you built a package of 'spects headlined by Urias. Who else is freefalling in your franchise? If you're dead set on this we can give you an idea where to go based on who might be punting the season.

[bestbrother]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Urias could headline something better than that. Don't get me wrong Hosmer, Cain and Moose are all fine players, but you could snag a superstar and a couple good pieces of you built a package of 'spects headlined by Urias. Who else is freefalling in your franchise? If you're dead set on this we can give you an idea where to go based on who might be punting the season.

Teams?

Oakland, LA Angels, ChiSox, Padres, Rays and Phillies are the teams in the worst position now.. ie as bad as me

[Hinkleyyy]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Currently in my second season with a month played in my Reds franchise. The team is not changed much from the first season besides adding some veteran experience in the rotation. Looking to add a bat to this team to make a playoff push this season because it may be Joey Votto's last good season. Either trying to bring in a few guys such as. (ATL) Inciarte, (MIL) Villar, (NYM) Conforto, (COL) Cargo, (MIA) Stanton (IK it would take a lot) and (DET) JD Martinez.

I have a good amount of A and B prospects in my originization and most likely could make any of these deals. Realistically what would you guys give up or give to get one of these guys..

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

The Royals are in freefall in my game and seemingly real life. With that in mind and what the experts seem to suggest, ive decided that Kansas City is the place for me to go shopping.

Note I will be shopping A-Gon and Turner based on this potential deal, sending them somewhere for little return.

KC Royals send:
Eric Hosmer
Lorenzo Cain
Mike Moustakas

LA Dodgers send:
Julio Urias

Then its a mix of either
Alex Verdugo / Andrew Toles / Willie Calhoun / Yadier Alvarez

and either
Andre Either / Scott Kazmir / Adrian Gonzalez

Would it happen irl, probably not, but all I want to know is if the AI is getting something fair in return for 3 expirings. They will get 2 solid prospects and a large expiring back.

I might take Moustakas out of there and stick with Turner at 3rd for now, given he has 3 years remaining and is a solid defensive glove.

Definitely going for it though, im 15-25 and I want to have fun, its a punt but im the Dodgers and a 90 loss season is unthinkable.

Julio Urias is not getting traded. He's 20 years old and is a legit ace level prospect. There are very very few players the Dodgers would include him for. Aka Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant

[bestbrother]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Julio Urias is not getting traded. He's 20 years old and is a legit ace level prospect. There are very very few players the Dodgers would include him for. Aka Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant

Mike Trout?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Mike Trout?

If you also included Seager and Bellinger on top of Urias you would at least be able to have a dialogue

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Teams?

Oakland, LA Angels, ChiSox, Padres, Rays and Phillies are the teams in the worst position now.. ie as bad as me

If you're dealing Urias, which is a little unrealistic as Gamecock noted, you want to deal to a middle of the road team. Treat Urias like an All-Star rather than a budding prospect.

[bestbrother]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

OK the gist of these posts makes me think that Urias can get me pretty much any deal I want?

Would a team take on the Gonzalez and Turner deals just to get Urias in their club?

[hampshirestags]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Before we go down the road, I'm just going to leave this right here and go eat dinner. Un-named but actual GM quotes...

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/226801942/can-angels-star-mike-trout-ever-get-traded/

[bestbrother]

Re: MLB 17 Trade Discussion Thread

Before we go down the road, I'm just going to leave this right here and go eat dinner. Un-named but actual GM quotes...

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/226801...er-get-traded/

Believe me, im not actually considering a Trout deal. Even I know thats pushing the realms a bit. However im very much open to tossing out Urias to get players in to help.

I think the KC deal is the way for me to go, I can basically cherrypick their World Series team by the looks of it and rather than relocate the Royals to LA... Ill just get a few of their pieces into Dodger blue