Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

Using the arbitrary attribute ratings you selected here.

In my 2034 file:

Contact R/Power R (80/80): 14
Contact R/Vision (80/80): 21
Contact R/Vision (80/70): 39
Stamina/H9 (80/70): 49

My numbers are much different which does show some RNG.

My arbitrary rating numbers would be lower than yours.

Also, more L handed hitters have these 80 ratings. You didn't include the contact L and power L, which actually boosted my numbers above even more if I were to include them. An 80 in these attribute ratings is considered to be all Star caliber. Going down to 75 for these numbers will likely show a lot of above average player attributes as well and give a much better overview of the health of the franchise.

Note these numbers are even with lowering potential of draft picks every season to keep inflation of ratings in line and to help the CPU better manage their rosters.

Just sharing so there is more than one set of numbers. If we get more to share, we can find a better average for these.

Interesting. Default sliders and no editing of players? mlbts23 or mlbts24?

[Funkycorm]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

Interesting. Default sliders and no editing of players? mlbts23 or mlbts24?

The only slider I lower is the trade slider when I sim. That would not impact anything.

As far as editing, I edit (lower) the potential of 25-30 draft picks the off season they were drafted in. Usually it is B to C or C to D.

But that is to lower high end inflation of overalls that pop up the further you get into franchise. It helps with CPU roster management a bit. If anything though, these edits would skew my results to be lower than they currently are.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

The only slider I lower is the trade slider when I sim. That would not impact anything.

As far as editing, I edit (lower) the potential of 25-30 draft picks the off season they were drafted in. Usually it is B to C or C to D.

But that is to lower high end inflation of overalls that pop up the further you get into franchise. It helps with CPU roster management a bit. If anything though, these edits would skew my results to be lower than they currently are.

If you are using mlbts24 If that's the case then your results would indicate they change progression/regression from mlbts23. Does pitcher stamina increase?

[Funkycorm]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

If you are using mlbts24 If that's the case then your results would indicate they change progression/regression from mlbts23. Does pitcher stamina increase?

I am using 24.

I don't know if progression and regression were changed. Maybe tweaked. But my one set of numbers isn't enough to prove that. It is likely a different product of the RNG factors.

Pitcher stamina and speed both can go up by 1-2 points occasionally for some players, but it is not like how everything else progresses.

My whole point through everything I have shared is that the system works but there is improvement needed. It is needed in progression, regression, and prospect generation. We can't call it broken because it does function. It just needs to be better.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

I am using 24.

I don't know if progression and regression were changed. Maybe tweaked. But my one set of numbers isn't enough to prove that. It is likely a different product of the RNG factors.

Pitcher stamina and speed both can go up by 1-2 points occasionally for some players, but it is not like how everything else progresses.

My whole point through everything I have shared is that the system works but there is improvement needed. It is needed in progression, regression, and prospect generation. We can't call it broken because it does function. It just needs to be better.

You had 49 drafted pitchers with stamina 80 and h/9 70. Zero chance of that happening in '23 because there are very few 80 stamina players in the draft and they always decrease.

Apparently they fixed it. I guess I'll find out in a week what '25 looks like.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

In order to find some level of comfortable data, you have to run like 25-30 ( ideally 50 if you could) franchises and then see the mix and max for both and average out the findings. Simming one franchise run over 15 years isn’t going to give you all of the possibilities of the dice roll.

In you 50 sims what are your stats?

I've asserted for many years there needs to be a more linear progression model in the game due to the very limited of new players entering the game every season compared to actual draft and international signings.

I suspect the guys who used to post here and now word for SDS would say "adjust sliders" to correct the problems. I'd prefer to see them fix their game.

[Funkycorm]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

In you 50 sims what are your stats?

I've asserted for many years there needs to be a more linear progression model in the game due to the very limited of new players entering the game every season compared to actual draft and international signings.

I suspect the guys who used to post here and now word for SDS would say "adjust sliders" to correct the problems. I'd prefer to see them fix their game.

You had 49 drafted pitchers with stamina 80 and h/9 70. Zero chance of that happening in '23 because there are very few 80 stamina players in the draft and they always decrease.

Apparently they fixed it. I guess I'll find out in a week what '25 looks like.

I think he was saying that is the sample size needed.

I have a 23 save file that is 10 years in the future but it isn't an opening day file. If I get the chance, I will reinstall and see what the numbers are there.

[MiracleMet718]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

I think he was saying that is the sample size needed.

I have a 23 save file that is 10 years in the future but it isn't an opening day file. If I get the chance, I will reinstall and see what the numbers are there.

Exactly this. I only say this because I used to mess around with sims a lot pre-MLB22 just to see what the outcomes would be and was surprised how different each one was. I like the randomness, it’s just unless you run multiple, you’ll never notice it.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

I think he was saying that is the sample size needed.

I have a 23 save file that is 10 years in the future but it isn't an opening day file. If I get the chance, I will reinstall and see what the numbers are there.

No edits. No sliders. Drafted players only.

[Funkycorm]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

No edits. No sliders. Drafted players only.

It's been long enough since I did the sim I don't remember what I did. But I will redo a new simulation.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

Because "actual progression" does not always match "scouted progression" in real life. Go look at the top prospect list is from 5-10 years ago and compare how many guys did not develop like scouts thought they would. Top prospect lists are always a mixed bag of hits and misses. If the system in MLB the show always got every player right then it wouldn't be realistic.

I don't think anyone is opposed to improvements to the draft - they are just disagreeing that the system is "broken" like you keeping saying.

I've said this repeatedly but apparently it's too complicated. The Show draft is 6 or 7 players per team. The MLB draft is 20 per team plus however many internationals signings they can make with the pool money allowed which is around 40 players per team on average.

6 or 7 vs around 60. You are correct a lot of top prospects don't pan out IRL but they aren't limited to 6 or 7 a year. IRL they can and do have a very high fail rate but they still produce enough MLB level players to field a MLB team. Can't have that high a fail rate in the Show.

Replicate actual number of player drafted and signed each year and you have a legit point but that's not going to happen. We are stuck with the current very limited number of draft picks and international signings are not in a pool instead they are included in the draft.

Does that make sense?

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

It's been long enough since I did the sim I don't remember what I did. But I will redo a new simulation.

I ran another one today through 2035.

Con 80 power 80 = 2 players
Con 80 vision 80 = 15
Con 80 vision 70 = 31
Stamina 80 h/9 70 = 26

Similar results to the first test except quality starting pitchers bumped from 14 to 26 but still significantly below 54 to begin the franchise.

If you don't already know this when you sim to get accurate results click on a date at the end of spring training and at the end of the season and select "sim to date". The only games I don't play are spring training and I noticed when I selected "sim spring training" instead of "sim to date" progression wasn't correct.

At this stage it's kind of a moot point with mlbts25 a week away since Ant Ortiz indicated the developers say there are no changes to progression/regression it will be interesting to compare '23 to '25.

I also noticed the 3 established players with 80 con and 80 power in my first sim were far worse in my second sim indicating the dice roll for age trajectory is unique for established players at the beginning of each franchise. They apparently don't have a locked in trajectory prior to the dice roll.

[Funkycorm]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

I ran another one today through 2035.

Con 80 power 80 = 2 players
Con 80 vision 80 = 15
Con 80 vision 70 = 31
Stamina 80 h/9 70 = 26

Similar results to the first test except quality starting pitchers bumped from 14 to 26 but still significantly below 54 to begin the franchise.

If you don't already know this when you sim to get accurate results click on a date at the end of spring training and at the end of the season and select "sim to date". The only games I don't play are spring training and I noticed when I selected "sim spring training" instead of "sim to date" progression wasn't correct.

At this stage it's kind of a moot point with mlbts25 a week away since Ant Ortiz indicated the developers say there are no changes to progression/regression it will be interesting to compare '23 to '25.

I also noticed the 3 established players with 80 con and 80 power in my first sim were far worse in my second sim indicating the dice roll for age trajectory is unique for established players at the beginning of each franchise. They apparently don't have a locked in trajectory prior to the dice roll.

Yep, always do sim to date from the calendar. Any other way causes issues.

I ran a test on 23.

Con R/ power R: 11
Con R/ vision 80: 19
Con R/ vision 70: 39
Stamina/ H9: 36

The numbers were a bit lower than 24 but at this point I am done. I don't want to keep testing and counting players. Excited to get 25 and start a RTTS SS and a new Guardians franchise.

[tessl]

Re: Draft Discussion - Video of latest draft results

Yep, always do sim to date from the calendar. Any other way causes issues.

I ran a test on 23.

Con R/ power R: 11
Con R/ vision 80: 19
Con R/ vision 70: 39
Stamina/ H9: 36

The numbers were a bit lower than 24 but at this point I am done. I don't want to keep testing and counting players. Excited to get 25 and start a RTTS SS and a new Guardians franchise.

Yep. On to 25 now.