Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Did every single thing Oldboy asked for by hand took me 3hrs and my browser freezes and it's all gone......just great. To make my life easier could you provide me your full list and i'll just edit it with ETA, Risk factors, linked scouting reports, accurate potentials, missing players, etc?

[skow05]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Did every single thing Oldboy asked for by hand took me 3hrs and my browser freezes and it's all gone......just great. To make my life easier could you provide me your full list and i'll just edit it with ETA, Risk factors, linked scouting reports, accurate potentials, missing players, etc?

That's some tough luck man. I'll be looking forward to checking out your work when you post it.

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

That's some tough luck man. I'll be looking forward to checking out your work when you post it.

Yeah....definitely writing it in a word document this time around. As I said before I have to know the Cubs ML system in-and-out for my job so it'll be pretty extensive and highly accurate when I do post it. If Oldboy can post his list so far I could probably finish it today.

[Shaffer26]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Make sure to look at this before submitting:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19847

Also, would like to help in any way possible. FYI, I wouldn't recommend making me a player creator as I suck in making faces, etc.

[Ligeann Dul Coileain]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Rule-5 pick Starling Peralta has been returned to the Cubs from the Diamondbacks. I'm only lately getting into looking at the Cubs farm system (mainly starting due to Epstein/Hoyer's approach to building the Cubs) so I'm not exactly sure what his potential could be or whether he's good enough to fit onto the OSFM roster right now (or ever will be), but a lot of what I have read about him says that he's a high-upside type pitcher.

Again I'm not saying that he should necessarily knock anyone off of the OSFM roster because I honestly don't know enough about him, but I guess that conversation can be had now.

[skow05]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Rule-5 pick Starling Peralta has been returned to the Cubs from the Diamondbacks. I'm only lately getting into looking at the Cubs farm system (mainly starting due to Epstein/Hoyer's approach to building the Cubs) so I'm not exactly sure what his potential could be or whether he's good enough to fit onto the OSFM roster right now (or ever will be), but a lot of what I have read about him says that he's a high-upside type pitcher.

Again I'm not saying that he should necessarily knock anyone off of the OSFM roster because I honestly don't know enough about him, but I guess that conversation can be had now.

I was just about to post this!

I think he should be in the discussion with the other A-ball Starting Pitcher's.

Definitely happy he's back in the organization though.

[hjgilber]

I was just about to post this!

I think he should be in the discussion with the other A-ball Starting Pitcher's.

Definitely happy he's back in the organization though.

I'd find a way to get him on the roster for OSFM

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Did every single thing Oldboy asked for by hand took me 3hrs and my browser freezes and it's all gone......just great. To make my life easier could you provide me your full list and i'll just edit it with ETA, Risk factors, linked scouting reports, accurate potentials, missing players, etc?

Man that sucks. I'll try to compile my spreadsheets into something I can post more easily.

I've been mostly entering info and trying to get the stances/motions accurate.

Peralta will definitely be in the discussion if not on the A roster.

edit: Sorry should have said when I get home from work tonight. If you guys got opinions don't wait on me. I'm open to any input and would prefer it so its not just my opinion going into the ratings. Its the higher profile prospects I am worried more about. For the lesser ones I feel comfortable using authentic's ratings and updating them for this year to save time. I'll update them for changing potentials and years away, but some of the career minor league players (low C, D pot) probably won't need changing. Once I get the roster inputted we can tweak any of the ratings as needed.

Keep in mind about the years away that this is when the player would contribute to the MLB club, not their debut. Seanjeezy said some people refer to it as the peak year. So basically what you think the ceiling is for a player.

So for instance a lot of reports have Baez debuting in 2014 (MLB.com) or 2015. But his years away is probably 3-4 as that is when he might peak and be a major contributor to the club.

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

For the guy who asked about Peralta.

One of the best FB's in the organization, flashes a plus-plus slider at times but lacks consistency with it. Word out of the Arizona this spring was that he has developed an ok changeup. Some baseball people feel he'll be a reliever when he makes it but Cubs will keep him a starter for as long as possible until he proves otherwise.

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Man that sucks. I'll try to compile my spreadsheets into something I can post more easily.

I've been mostly entering info and trying to get the stances/motions accurate.

Peralta will definitely be in the discussion if not on the A roster.

edit: Sorry should have said when I get home from work tonight. If you guys got opinions don't wait on me. I'm open to any input and would prefer it so its not just my opinion going into the ratings. Its the higher profile prospects I am worried more about. For the lesser ones I feel comfortable using authentic's ratings and updating them for this year to save time. I'll update them for changing potentials and years away, but some of the career minor league players (low C, D pot) probably won't need changing. Once I get the roster inputted we can tweak any of the ratings as needed.

Keep in mind about the years away that this is when the player would contribute to the MLB club, not their debut. Seanjeezy said some people refer to it as the peak year. So basically what you think the ceiling is for a player.

So for instance a lot of reports have Baez debuting in 2014 (MLB.com) or 2015. But his years away is probably 3-4 as that is when he might peak and be a major contributor to the club.

Ok i'll tweak my ETA to fit that mechanic instead of debuts. Whenever you can post that spreadsheet i'll slap all my stuff onto it. If you need any player in paticular batting stance, hit tendencies, pitching motion, pitching arsenal, etc let me know and i'll try to get that posted on here for you.

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Ok i'll tweak my ETA to fit that mechanic instead of debuts. Whenever you can post that spreadsheet i'll slap all my stuff onto it. If you need any player in paticular batting stance, hit tendencies, pitching motion, pitching arsenal, etc let me know and i'll try to get that posted on here for you.

Any tendencies you find would help as I have't started this part yet. Don't worry about any of the lesser prospects.

edit: for the years away seanjeezy said it is how far a player is from a certain stat line.

So if you project a player will have a ceiling of 25 HRs, but won't reach that for 4 years you step it back 4 years on the rating tables.

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

OK, here is the spreadsheet I am working off of. Its a bit old so it doesn't have any of the projections or updates I made to ratings. Its just the most updated one I could access from work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...VE&usp=sharing

You can make a copy to your google docs for editing, then post your link when you want.

The potentials are updated I believe to what was discussed and posted about so far. i.e. Johnson increased to a B.

The ratings, info and stances are authentic's from last year. I am pretty sure I had not updated these in this file.

The projection tabs should have the important stats/skills that correlate to Knight's tables for conversion and the players that will be created. For pitching I believe this should be based on a full season (i.e. K/season= 180). For batting I think Knight said it was based on 600 AB or 550 PA.

If you do make changes to what roster a player projects to be on in 2013, potential, info or whatever, just make sure you mark it as changed somehow so I can see it. Color it red or something.

Go ahead and add anything to these and I'll check them out later tonight/weekend. I only have projections/ratings for the top prospects so anything you guys can add would save a lot of time. I am comfortable deferring any of the ratings/projections as I'm confident you guys know your stuff as much as I do. I was out in the field this week, but I'm off the entire weekend so hoping to get this near completion by the start of next week perhaps.

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Any tendencies you find would help as I have't started this part yet. Don't worry about any of the lesser prospects.

edit: for the years away seanjeezy said it is how far a player is from a certain stat line.

So if you project a player will have a ceiling of 25 HRs, but won't reach that for 4 years you step it back 4 years on the rating tables.

Gotcha. I'll do tendencies for A,B, and probably most of the C+ guys but don't be surprised if it's just the A-B prospects

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Cubs 90-man for the show 2013
Risk Factors

Safe: Has shown realistic ceiling in big leagues; ready to contribute in 2013.

Low: Likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain big league career barring injury.

Medium: Still some work to do to turn tools into major league-caliber skills.

High: Most draft picks in their first seasons, players with plenty of projection left.

Extreme: Teenagers in Rookie ball or players with significant injury histories.

Potential system
A+ HOF
A MVP
A- Superstar
B+ All-Star
B Good
B- Solid
C+ Average regular
C Fringe regular/platoon
C- Bench player/Utility

Only doing risk factor and ETA for A-C+
Only doing projections for A-C+
Only doing tendencies for A-B-

Part 1

Potential/risk factor/ETA(for reaching potential,not by debut)

A (2)

Javier Baez A/ High/2015 Projection: Superstar caliber infielder

Jorge Soler A-/high/2015 Projection: Power-hitting All-star RF

B (16)

Arodys Vizcaino B+/extreme/2013 Projection: #2 starter or All-star Closer

Albert Almora B+/high/2015-2016 Projection: All-around occasional All-star CF

Juan Carlos Paniagua B+/extreme/2014 Projection: #2-3 starter or late-inning reliever

Dillon Maples B/extreme/2016 Projection: #2 starter

Brett Jackson B/medium/2013 Projection: above-average regular OF

Dan Vogelbach B/high/2015 Projection: impact-hitting 1b/dh

Christian Villanueva B-/medium/2015 Projection: Gold-glove 3B, solid hitter

Robert Whitenack B-/extreme/2014 Projection: #3 starter

Pierce Johnson B/high/2015 Projection: #2-3 starter

Ben Wells B-/extreme/2016 Projection: Mid-rotation starter

Duane Underwood B+/EXTREME/2016-18 Projection: #1 starter or never make it past AA

Arismendy Alacantara B-/high/2015 Projection: solid starting SS/2B or utility infielder

Jeimer Candelario B-/high/2015 Projection: good all-around hitter at 3B or LF

Paul Blackburn B-/high/2016 Projection: Mid-rotation starter

Reggie Golden B-/EXTREME/2016 Projection: All-star RF or never make it past AA

Starling Peralta B/high/2015 Projection: mid-rotation starter or late inning reliever



C (31)
Junior Lake C+/high/2013 Projection: average starting 3B or above-average super sub

Matt Szczur C+/high/2014 Projection: lead-off caliber starting CF or backup OF

Josh Vitters C+/medium/2013 Projection: Solid-hitting starting 3B

Trey McNutt C+/high/2013 Projection: Mid-rotation starter or setup guy

Trey Martin C+/high/2015 Projection: Athletic, defensive-minded CF

Barrett Loux C+/low/2013 Projection: solid 4/5 starter

Ryan McNeil C+/extreme/2016 Projection: Too raw to project

Ronald Torreyes C+/high/2015 Projection: Good starting 2B

Logan Watkins C+/low/2013 Projection: good starting 2b or great utility player

Gerardo Conception C+/extreme/2017 Projection: mid-rotation starter

Matt Loosen C
Jae-Hoon Ha C
Lendy Castillo C
Nick Struck C
Gioskar Amaya C+/high/2016 Projection: all-around good starting 2B
Justin Bour C
Elliot Soto C
Marco Hernandez C
Dayan Diaz C
Tony Zych C+/medium/2014 Projection: setup guy
Marcus Hatley C
Jeffry Antigua C-
Jay Jackson C
Blake Parker C
Shawn Dunston Jr C
Johermyn Chavez C+/high/2014 Projection: good platoon RF
Dallas Beeler C-
Austin Kirk C-
Michael Brenly C-
Rubi Silva C-
Rafael Lopez C-




D (10)
Michael Burgess D+
Drew Carpenter D+
Jaye Chapman D+
Dae-Eun Rhee D+
Brad Nelson D+
Casey Weathers D+
Nelson Perez D+
Greg Rohan D+
Ty Wright D+
Jensen Lewis D

[Marcelj21]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Thanks for that spread sheet. I'll fill in/update potentials and ratings probably next week. Working all weekend. If you want to use anything from my last post and put it in the spreadsheet feel free.