Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

[steviegolfballs]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I've been emphasizing recently that I'm here at OS mainly to discuss the Show.... and LOVE.

What's better time to look for that special someone than a Friday evening?

Is there any better place than OS to find that lady of my dream?

Not likely...

So, in order to close in on what true love means for myself, I decided to look into one aspect of home plate umpire tendencies.

Home Plate Ump   Strike %   Games  Total Pitches  Strikes   K/BB
----------------------------------------------------------------
Patrick Johnson      63.8     15       4437        2830     2.43
Dutch Nelson         63.2     13       3574        2260     2.67
Earl Hendricks       63.2     19       5366        3392     2.28
Freddie Ferguson     63.0     17       5036        3173     2.39
Ricky Holliday       62.9     22       6405        4031     2.29
Porter Callahan      62.9     17       5062        3183     2.55
Woody Keller         62.7     14       4113        2579     2.33
Mike Winters         62.7     16       4777        2995     2.00
CB. Hernandez        62.5     17       4958        3098     1.77
Joe MacDonald        62.5     14       4056        2533     1.94
James Gibson         62.4     22       6715        4191     2.30
Eric Summersgill     62.2     17       4847        3014     2.55
Jeff Carlson         62.1     20       6038        3751     2.04
Tom Reyburn          62.0     21       6082        3770     2.04
Marvin Knight        62.0     19       5860        3632     1.86
Earl Cooper          61.9     17       5130        3178     1.78
Clyde Washington     61.9     13       3902        2417     2.69
Wally Hughes         61.8     17       4923        3041     2.06
Kerwin Thompson      61.6     18       5140        3166     1.88
Rusty Valentine      61.0     15       4423        2696     1.56

There haven't been that many games called by each umpire, but it does look like the differences exist already. Needless to say, it's not just the umpires that affect those numbers... pitchers do probably have stronger impacts on these stats. But at the same time, there are a lot of pitches recorded already.

Does this match your experiences with home plate umpires? Does Patrick Johnson call more strikes than Rusty Valentine?

Most importantly, where's my love?

I am speechless.

I was wondering if you notice a statistical difference based on weather. Logic would say that a rainy, cold day would produce less offense so I wondered if that were true. I play all of my games in exhibition mode as night games with clear skies, I wondered if you saw any connection to low scoring games and poor conditions. Again, I am speechless as to the level of stats you get involved in.....the umpires? You are awesome!

[Bobhead]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I am speechless.

I was wondering if you notice a statistical difference based on weather. Logic would say that a rainy, cold day would produce less offense so I wondered if that were true. I play all of my games in exhibition mode as night games with clear skies, I wondered if you saw any connection to low scoring games and poor conditions. Again, I am speechless as to the level of stats you get involved in.....the umpires? You are awesome!

Wouldn't logic say that you'd see more offense in rainy games? I would think that rain affects fielding more than pitching, and pitching more than batting. We are both just speculating though. I'm sure the answer is on Baseball Reference or Google somewhere.

[Geronimo22]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Home Plate Ump   Strike %   Games  Total Pitches  Strikes   K/BB
----------------------------------------------------------------
Patrick Johnson      63.8     15       4437        2830     2.43
Dutch Nelson         63.2     13       3574        2260     2.67
Earl Hendricks       63.2     19       5366        3392     2.28
Freddie Ferguson     63.0     17       5036        3173     2.39
Ricky Holliday       62.9     22       6405        4031     2.29
Porter Callahan      62.9     17       5062        3183     2.55
Woody Keller         62.7     14       4113        2579     2.33
Mike Winters         62.7     16       4777        2995     2.00
CB. Hernandez        62.5     17       4958        3098     1.77
Joe MacDonald        62.5     14       4056        2533     1.94
James Gibson         62.4     22       6715        4191     2.30
Eric Summersgill     62.2     17       4847        3014     2.55
Jeff Carlson         62.1     20       6038        3751     2.04
Tom Reyburn          62.0     21       6082        3770     2.04
Marvin Knight        62.0     19       5860        3632     1.86
Earl Cooper          61.9     17       5130        3178     1.78
[COLOR=White]Clyde Washington     61.9     13       3902        2417     2.69[/COLOR]
Wally Hughes         61.8     17       4923        3041     2.06
Kerwin Thompson      61.6     18       5140        3166     1.88
Rusty Valentine      61.0     15       4423        2696     1.56

Wonderful job Nomo! Wow!

Clyde Washington!!! I hate that guy when I'm at the plate! I think I PM'd you about him Nomo. He is a mutha and calls a huge strikezone! And your data confirms this! Thanks for proving I'm not crazy... Well not 100% crazy!

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I am speechless.

I was wondering if you notice a statistical difference based on weather. Logic would say that a rainy, cold day would produce less offense so I wondered if that were true. I play all of my games in exhibition mode as night games with clear skies, I wondered if you saw any connection to low scoring games and poor conditions. Again, I am speechless as to the level of stats you get involved in.....the umpires? You are awesome!

Since I'm playing every single game, I only got through April, so haven't seen much weather variation. In fact, I haven't actually seem many rainy days...

I think it is much harder to nail down weather effect. The biggest variable in weather in this game is temperature I think, but I cannot simply compare stuff by temperature, since there are other variables like ball park and altitudes, both of which affect baseball.

I think weather conditions go both ways, and no clear answer as to the effect that it would have on offense.

Like how the Rockies use humidor to keep the humidity higher for baseball, and the offense actually reduced. But on the other hand, humid air conditions can carry balls farther:

http://www.exploratorium.edu/baseball/howfar3.html

I've always been confused about the weather effects. My namesake Hideo Nomo pitched two no-hitters in his career, one at Baltimore as a BoSox and another at Coors as a Dodger. Both of these came after a long rain delay, and I remember some critics calling that the weather condition helped. But according to the above article, wet weather is friendlier for offense... yet the Rockies do use humidity to reduce offense.... haha.

There's no clear cut answer it seems. There are a lot of variables that can affect this.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Wonderful job Nomo! Wow!

Clyde Washington!!! I hate that guy when I'm at the plate! I think I PM'd you about him Nomo. He is a mutha and calls a huge strikezone! And your data confirms this! Thanks for proving I'm not crazy... Well not 100% crazy!

According to the list, he's enigmatic. His strike % isn't very high, which suggests that it's not that he tends to call strikes. But his K/BB ratio is very high, so he does call Ks very often (or issue less walks). Maybe a sign of inconsistency, haha. You really need to look at where pitches are at what counts, etc.

It's fun to look at stuff like this at times.

[tbbucsfan001]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Adam Dunn is batting above .200, it's broken. Just kidding man, but I had to say that.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Adam Dunn is batting above .200, it's broken. Just kidding man, but I had to say that.

The game certainly is broken. It always has been. Look at all the posts about the Show in OS just after the release. Every year, people complain a bug-filled game like this isn't worth $60 (*). And the same people pay $60 every year just to say the game still isn't worth $60 to spend every year. Back to (*).

Meanwhile, you might want to file a bug report in that thread... Adam Dunn hitting above .200 must be a bug. If he hits above .200 in MLB 13, I'll be playing PYS instead.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

SB% is kinda weird. We concluded BR Steal Ability slider is reversed, but the success % hasn't gone up like I anticipated by clicking down.


#############
After 75 games with the Mar. 25 set.

Contact: 4
Power: 5
Timing: 6
Foul Frequency: 4
Solid Hits: 5
Starter Stamina: 5
Reliever Stamina: 5
Pitcher Control: 5
Pitcher Consistency: 4
Strike Frequency: 5
Manager Hook: 5
Pickoffs: 5
Pitch Speed: 10
Fielding Errors: 7
Throwing Errors: 5
Fielder Run Speed: 4
Fielder Reaction: 4
Fielder Arm Strength: 3
BR Speed: 6
BR Steal Ability: 4
BR Steal Frequency: 8
Wind: 5
Injury Frequency: 5

[tbbucsfan001]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

The game certainly is broken. It always has been. Look at all the posts about the Show in OS just after the release. Every year, people complain a bug-filled game like this isn't worth $60 (*). And the same people pay $60 every year just to say the game still isn't worth $60 to spend every year. Back to (*).

Meanwhile, you might want to file a bug report in that thread... Adam Dunn hitting above .200 must be a bug. If he hits above .200 in MLB 13, I'll be playing PYS instead.

Sarcasm? Because my post was a joke...

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Sarcasm? Because my post was a joke...

I'm dead serious. My hobby is to crack a joke with a very serious face and see the reaction. I love how most people go "... huh...?"

No wonder my quest for true love has never been successful.

[steviegolfballs]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I have had very similar results with my testing of your slider set Nomo. The only two differences that I have are that I have pickoffs set to 0 and wind set to 0. through 40 games I have 28 SB and 12 CS. A 70% success rate. I put pickoffs at 0 because I was seeing too many pickoffs. The wind I set at 0 because the high wind days have to much effect but that is purely visual and doesn't have much effect on the game.

What are your thoughts about bumping up the fielder reaction one spot back to 5, could this possibly reduce slightly the number of hits and doubles?

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I have had very similar results with my testing of your slider set Nomo. The only two differences that I have are that I have pickoffs set to 0 and wind set to 0. through 40 games I have 28 SB and 12 CS. A 70% success rate. I put pickoffs at 0 because I was seeing too many pickoffs. The wind I set at 0 because the high wind days have to much effect but that is purely visual and doesn't have much effect on the game.

What are your thoughts about bumping up the fielder reaction one spot back to 5, could this possibly reduce slightly the number of hits and doubles?

I'm actually analyzing some data on winds right now... just to see.

I'll keep steal stuff for a bit longer to see where it stabilizes.

I'm actually happy with doubles. The double fraction (out of total hits) are right on (about 19 - 20%), so I hope that stays. On the other hand, I want to reduce triples if I could, but it's not something I'd be carried away with... since it's tricky to balance all fielder speed, reaction, BR speed, etc... it's not unacceptably high. And part of what causes more triples is that outfielders dive too often and don't play safe. Sliders don't do much there I think.

[tbbucsfan001]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

I'm dead serious. My hobby is to crack a joke with a very serious face and see the reaction. I love how most people go "... huh...?"

No wonder my quest for true love has never been successful.

That and the hundreds of CPU vs CPU games you sit through.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

That and the hundreds of CPU vs CPU games you sit through.

Right. But there's this woman in this game who always sits behind the backstop in Citi that I'm currently having crush on... I always look for the Mets home games and hence the major driving force for playing through all the other games till the next game at Citi's up.

[nomo17k]

Re: Stats-Based CPU Sliders [MLB 12 Version]

Wind stuff. Roughly following what I did last year:

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...post2042253550

I get from this article:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/when-the-wind-blows/

how often and strong wind blows. In short, IRL:

(1) about 16% games with wind < 3 mph in any directions
(2) 25% games with wind stronger than 10 mph blowing either in or out, and
(3) 59% games with neither.

How does the game compare this year? (Removed games played in domes.)

(1) 16% (53 out of 323 games), (2) 32% (103), (3) 52%

So it's pretty good I'd say. Perhaps a bit more windy days than IRL, but just for the sake of matching the numbers, Wind = 4 is good enough, just to reduce windy days a bit.

More importantly, does wind matter in HR production rate? According to the above Hardball Times article, things aren't as clear cut... it's not just the wind strengths that matter. It appears a more important factor is *how* it blows.... after all, ball parks have fairly complicated structures, so wind isn't always blowing parallel to the ground (as indicated by the wind directions in the game).

HRs per game per team by wind direction look as follows:

"in": 166 HRs in 228 games = 0.73 HRs
"out": 325 HRs in 250 games = 1.30 HRs
"other": 214 HRs in 218 games = 0.98 HRs

So in the game, you almost expect nearly 30% increase/decrease in HR production when wind blows out/in.

Is this too much compared to real life? Likely yes.

Probably I'd go with Wind 4 this time.