O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

**seanjeezy** · 03-04-2015, 12:20 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

I am also in 2019 so I can do a quick count of potentials too:

99: nine, four of which come from the draft plus Byron Buxton and Hunter Harvey. Two of the drafted players are in the mid 60's, one is 24 and the other 22. The third is a 71 and 20 y.o., the fourth is a 99 and 26. The other three are Trout (27), Kershaw (30), and Cabrera (35). Only four of the nine have 99 OVR.

90+: 140 that are 30 and under, 123 that are 28 and under, 93 that are 26 and under, 63 that are 24 and under. 61 of the <30 are 90+ OVR, 52 of the <28 are 90+, 26 of the <26 are 90+, 7 of the <24 are 90+.

Its not a terrible distribution if you really think about it, 140/2700 is ~5.2%. 9/2700 is ~0.33%. Now if things go as planned and everyone is on the same page regarding potentials, both of those numbers should be even lower.

**1andonly** · 03-04-2015, 12:53 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by seanjeezy

I am also in 2019 so I can do a quick count of potentials too:

99: nine, four of which come from the draft plus Byron Buxton and Hunter Harvey. Two of the drafted players are in the mid 60's, one is 24 and the other 22. The third is a 71 and 20 y.o., the fourth is a 99 and 26. The other three are Trout (27), Kershaw (30), and Cabrera (35). Only four of the nine have 99 OVR.

90+: 140 that are 30 and under, 123 that are 28 and under, 93 that are 26 and under, 63 that are 24 and under. 61 of the <30 are 90+ OVR, 52 of the <28 are 90+, 26 of the <26 are 90+, 7 of the <24 are 90+.

Its not a terrible distribution if you really think about it, 140/2700 is ~5.2%. 9/2700 is ~0.33%. Now if things go as planned and everyone is on the same page regarding potentials, both of those numbers should be even lower.

So your numbers are pretty close to mine. I assume you had a bunch of players 26 and under that are also 97 and 98 potential?

I agree that is isn't terrible but I do think those numbers need to be lower. Look how many prospects reach 97-99 potential. The problem is that such high potential allows young players to progress much faster than they should regardless of their play. Lowering potentials should help this problem.

**WaitTilNextYear** · 03-04-2015, 01:04 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by 1andonly

So these results are using the OSFM Hybridv3 roster and is at the beginning of 2019.

These are the prospects (not including already players like Trout, Kewshaw etc) that have a 97-99 potential.

1. Carlos Correa OVR: 96 AGE: 24
2. Jon gray OVR: 95 AGE: 27
3. Kyle Zimmer OVR: 93 AGE: 27
4. Byron Buxton OVR: 93 AGE 25
5. Robert Stephenson OVR: 92 AGE: 26
6. Tyler Glasnow OVR: 87. AGE: 25
7. Corey Seager OVR: 88. AGE: 25
8. Julio Urias OVR: 93 AGE: 23
9. Lucas Giolito OVR: 88 AGE: 24
10. Aaron Sanchez OVR: 95 AGE: 26
11. Francisco Lindor OVR: 96 AGE: 25
12. Addison Russel OVR: 97 AGE: 25
13. Andrew Heaney OVR: 91 AGE: 28
14. Braden Shipley OVR 87 AGE: 27

This just seems like too much to me. I know you said OVR doesn't mean much but their attributes are high in areas that matter as well.

A few things in response to this...

1. OVR is not that important. It really, really isn't. Check the stats that these players are accruing and you'll see what I mean.

2. "Seems like" is not a very exhaustive analysis. I was intrigued by your data and added on to the handful of players you showed (my data is spoiler'd below). Of the 59 Top Prospects I tracked into 2019, only 16 of them (27%) saw their POT increase from their initial value. 24 of the 59 (41%) saw their POT decrease from the initial value. And 19 of the 59 (32%) stayed at the same POT. So, in fact, my data are in direct contradiction to your thesis about "all the prospects having ever-escalating potentials." In fact, it would appear that it is harder to maintain a high POT so a decrease is most likely, followed by stay the same and increase.

3. If you want to continue this discussion, please move it to the thread you made especially for this. You say that you're a fan of OSFM and I believe you, but if you truly want to help this effort, you'll help by reducing the clutter in this thread. For example, I could've been editing the spreadsheet for the past hour instead of doing this back and forth with you. That's 2 full teams of pitching ratings/motions that could have been copied in that time. Plus, it's best that this thread serves as a communication hub for the people doing the work rather than as a "complaint box."

Spoiler

**1andonly** · 03-04-2015, 02:03 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear

A few things in response to this...

1. OVR is not that important. It really, really isn't. Check the stats that these players are accruing and you'll see what I mean.

2. "Seems like" is not a very exhaustive analysis. I was intrigued by your data and added on to the handful of players you showed (my data is spoiler'd below). Of the 59 Top Prospects I tracked into 2019, only 16 of them (27%) saw their POT increase from their initial value. 24 of the 59 (41%) saw their POT decrease from the initial value. And 19 of the 59 (32%) stayed at the same POT. So, in fact, my data are in direct contradiction to your thesis about "all the prospects having ever-escalating potentials." In fact, it would appear that it is harder to maintain a high POT so a decrease is most likely, followed by stay the same and increase.

3. If you want to continue this discussion, please move it to the thread you made especially for this. You say that you're a fan of OSFM and I believe you, but if you truly want to help this effort, you'll help by reducing the clutter in this thread. For example, I could've been editing the spreadsheet for the past hour instead of doing this back and forth with you. That's 2 full teams of pitching ratings/motions that could have been copied in that time. Plus, it's best that this thread serves as a communication hub for the people doing the work rather than as a "complaint box."

Spoiler

I know OVR isn't very important but a lot of these players have insane stats as well. Many pitchers have 90+ in critical areas. Hitters as well. I took that into consideration.

I said "seems like" because apparently I am one of the few who think that many prospects with that high of a potential is a problem. If I say "this is a problem and it is a fact" then I get roasted by people on here for being too critical and to just go do it "my own way."

Do not blame me for you not doing the spreadsheet. I have simply just been responding to people (not just you). I am not sitting here and making a complaint post, then no one responds and I do it again and so on and so on. This was also never a complaint post and please do not call it that. I have said countless times that I thought this was a problem for me and thought maybe other people agreed.

Seeing as how all you guys just view this as invalid, inaccurate, too critical, and annoying complaining than I will let you be. I was just trying to help with the prospect potentials.

It seems as if what I am doing is not welcomed and if you did not care what I had to say, did not agree with it, and had no intention of changing anything then just tell me leave instead of three pages of these back and fourths basically telling me to screw off.

Best of luck, I will leave you guys alone.

**Willard76** · 03-04-2015, 02:25 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

On a positive note - wait til you all see some of the new faces created for this year's OSFM and in some cases faces for players who need to re-enter the game. I may throw some teasers of before and after pics up tomorrow

**WaitTilNextYear** · 03-04-2015, 02:35 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by 1andonly

I know OVR isn't very important but a lot of these players have insane stats as well. Many pitchers have 90+ in critical areas. Hitters as well. I took that into consideration.

I said "seems like" because apparently I am one of the few who think that many prospects with that high of a potential is a problem. If I say "this is a problem and it is a fact" then I get roasted by people on here for being too critical and to just go do it "my own way."

Do not blame me for you not doing the spreadsheet. I have simply just been responding to people (not just you). I am not sitting here and making a complaint post, then no one responds and I do it again and so on and so on. This was also never a complaint post and please do not call it that. I have said countless times that I thought this was a problem for me and thought maybe other people agreed.

Seeing as how all you guys just view this as invalid, inaccurate, too critical, and annoying complaining than I will let you be. I was just trying to help with the prospect potentials.

It seems as if what I am doing is not welcomed and if you did not care what I had to say, did not agree with it, and had no intention of changing anything then just tell me leave instead of three pages of these back and fourths basically telling me to screw off.

Best of luck, I will leave you guys alone.

This will be my last comment on the matter and is probably 1 or 2 too many already (apologies to those getting sick of reading these posts about this matter in this thread), but...

You seem like an intelligent guy and to be honest, we could probably use your help in some form or fashion if you wanted to volunteer. You've also made some good points. Just dredging back through POT values, I already see some guys (cough, Archie Bradley) with POT values that need to come down. I see the adjustments as more of a case by case than a massive kill everyone by 10% thing that you've advocated. Some guys have already undergone the "knife" so to speak. Jurickson Profar was a 95 POT, but in our working spreadsheet, he's been nerfed to 85. There are others.

You have stated your case repeatedly and in multiple different threads even pasting the same thing in 2 or 3 that I've seen (almost, but not quite, to the point of spam). You've also made your own dedicated thread where this can be discussed and not get in the way of general OSFM issues (like people actually signing up to do stuff, which is the main purpose of this thread...or should be).

The issue I have is that OSFM is a complicated enough process without having circular debates like this cropping up all the time. While it's true that it's equally my fault for continuing to respond to you; I don't really feel like rumors starting about OSFM's methods for doing POTs being out of whack is something I'm comfortable with letting go--especially if the data isn't there. Each year, people are confused enough about what roster is what, who's doing what, what's in what roster, when this will come out and so forth, that adding more noise to the cacophony in here isn't helpful.

In fact, the POT values are really one of the most contentious aspects of OSFM and everyone involved takes them really seriously. So when someone is saying everything, the entire system, that's been working for years is somehow broken, people aren't just going to say "yeah, dude, you're so right" unless your data is ridiculously convincing. I got curious and tested it and I don't agree with you. That's just my own opinion, not necessarily "OSFM policy" or anything.

On top of that, I've presented some arguments that have not been refuted. OVRs are not the end-all, be-all. SCEA draftee inflation is much more problematic in the long term than anything we're talking about. In addition, you surely know that you can do your edits as you please once you download the team's final product and maybe that's a more prescient strategy than trying to fundamentally alter a system that's been working for several years.

Furthermore, rather than taking your proverbial ball and going home when someone refutes your argument and rather than insisting that nobody is accepting feedback, it might be helpful to strengthen your case--in my opinion, the original argument (that POTs only go up and get out of control) has been shot down.

Anyway, I'd love to continue to debate this matter in another thread, and I don't mean any harm even though some of this is purposefully condescending to get the point across. But, this is the last I will comment on this matter in here. And, when the rosters come out, I hope you enjoy them to the fullest and make whatever changes you need to them. And, furthermore, I hope we never have to do full-blown OSFM again period because Y2Y rosters hopefully make it in next year.

**teeds** · 03-04-2015, 06:52 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by Willard76

A note about service time

Please wait until at least the first update to create players with Service Time needed and we can find players with appropriate matches.

We don't want to have you waste your time creating someone only to have to replace them. On the spreadsheet any player with Service time beside them we do not expect to be in the game and will need to be created. I along with Motown have been working hard to get those faces done to copy over.

I'd also like to add that more attention be paid to minor league utility types. Often times a guy is created with only two positions when in fact he plays six or seven. I remember recreating many minor leaguers last year to represent this fact. Baseball-reference is of course a great source to use for position breakdown for a specific player.

**DarionC14** · 03-04-2015, 07:45 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

hey guys, i'd like to help out with any and all OFSM needs.

I see in the thread that maybe a few less people than average are able to volunteer their time this year and i'd be more than willing to do any teams that don't get picked up or need help with.

As for experience I have never done an OFSM team and i'm horrible at faces but let me know what to do and I can do it, I also did the vast majority of last years hybrid's initial re-ratings and equipment edits before having to kind of fall off the map for personal reasons and just generally being to busy.

From what I have seen no one has really said much about equipment and stance/motion edits and those are two things I would really like to spear head for the hybrid roster seeing as those are two things I always really dive deep into on my own time regardless and working with guys such as Scott and Showtyme who do a lot of equipment edits on their own I think we could get a lot of accurate edits fast so doing those for the hybrid would be like knocking out two birds with one stone. Thanks.

**Willard76** · 03-04-2015, 10:15 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by DarionC14

hey guys, i'd like to help out with any and all OFSM needs.

I see in the thread that maybe a few less people than average are able to volunteer their time this year and i'd be more than willing to do any teams that don't get picked up or need help with.

As for experience I have never done an OFSM team and i'm horrible at faces but let me know what to do and I can do it, I also did the vast majority of last years hybrid's initial re-ratings and equipment edits before having to kind of fall off the map for personal reasons and just generally being to busy.

From what I have seen no one has really said much about equipment and stance/motion edits and those are two things I would really like to spear head for the hybrid roster seeing as those are two things I always really dive deep into on my own time regardless and working with guys such as Scott and Showtyme who do a lot of equipment edits on their own I think we could get a lot of accurate edits fast so doing those for the hybrid would be like knocking out two birds with one stone. Thanks.

I will put you down again this year. Welcome back. I will be in touch with how we will use you.

Thanks

Willard and team

**seanjeezy** · 03-04-2015, 11:21 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by teeds

I'd also like to add that more attention be paid to minor league utility types. Often times a guy is created with only two positions when in fact he plays six or seven. I remember recreating many minor leaguers last year to represent this fact. Baseball-reference is of course a great source to use for position breakdown for a specific player.

Probably need to compile a list of fake players with unique position combinations. Spray charts are re-rolled when you switch batter handedness so it's not too hard to find a decent combination of both.

**Willard76** · 03-04-2015, 11:41 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Hey everyone, I know in the past we have always used the one thread to work and discuss things on. Personally I am an organization freak and find sometimes it is hard to find info when you need it off the one big thread. What are people's thoughts on having 2 separate threads - one for creation and one to deal directly with ratings

**huskerfan4life** · 03-04-2015, 11:50 AM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by Willard76

Hey everyone, I know in the past we have always used the one thread to work and discuss things on. Personally I am an organization freak and find sometimes it is hard to find info when you need it off the one big thread. What are people's thoughts on having 2 separate threads - one for creation and one to deal directly with ratings

i think that would be a good idea

**ShowTyme15** · 03-04-2015, 12:18 PM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by Willard76

Hey everyone, I know in the past we have always used the one thread to work and discuss things on. Personally I am an organization freak and find sometimes it is hard to find info when you need it off the one big thread. What are people's thoughts on having 2 separate threads - one for creation and one to deal directly with ratings

That is a smart idea. Helps avoid confusion.

**cardinal511** · 03-04-2015, 01:29 PM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Hey guys, I'd like to help out again this year if I can. Last year I helped a bit with the Brewers doing mostly research stuff. I'm not good at faces, but I'd be willing to chip in to do research for any team, help with ratings, or whatever else is needed.

**Willard76** · 03-04-2015, 01:37 PM

Re: O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

Originally posted by cardinal511

Hey guys, I'd like to help out again this year if I can. Last year I helped a bit with the Brewers doing mostly research stuff. I'm not good at faces, but I'd be willing to chip in to do research for any team, help with ratings, or whatever else is needed.

Still looking for guys to setup the Nats, Rockies, Cards and I'm sure other guys may need a hand. PM myself and Ridin if any of this interests you

O.S.F.M. 2015 Recruiting(joint ops with Hybrid Set)

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