Mariners Meet With Zito

[Stoud]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Don't be fooled by Zito's name recognition. He is not an ace by any means. His stats over the past few years are the definition of average. 2006 League Averages on the left, Zito's 2006 #'s on the right (credit lookoutlanding.com and hardballtimes.com)

ERA: 4.53 - 3.83
<B>FIP: 4.52 - 4.90</B>
<B>xFIP: 4.70 - 5.41</B>
K%: 17.0% - 15.9%
uBB%: 7.7% - 9.9%
HBP%: 1.0% - 1.3%
HR%: 2.9% - 2.9%
K/9: 6.58 - 6.14
uBB/9: 3.00 - 3.81
HR/9: 1.13 - 1.10
P/PA: 3.76 - 3.9
<B>DER: .695 - .719</B>
LD%: 19.6% - 16.5%
GB%: 43.6% - 38.2%
FB%: 36.8% - 45.3%
LOB%: 71.6% - 78.5%

Those numbers are not exactly what I would want out of my staff ace. Put Zito on just an average fielding team last year and his numbers drop considerably...down into the BAD range.

I still see a #2 IMHO. Sure he'd be a #1 on the M's, but without him Felix would be a #1...do you really want Felix as the ace this early in his career? I would like to see Zito as a #1 compared to the other #1's in the AL West. Nobody said he was perfect as an ace, but he'd fit pretty well as an ace in the AL West, and has done so for the A's. Putting him in a rotation with Felix, Washburn, Batista, and Ramirez, could spell success...I'm not saying it's going to be WORLD SERIES, or even ALDS winning success, but it COULD get them to the post season, which is better than what the M's have had the past few years.

I look at Zito and his numbers, and I'm not just looking at his name recognition, I see:

A consistent ability to win

An improving ERA

A pretty good track record in the AL West with a sub-par team (when it came to hitting, the A's didn't do much of it, just like the M's)

I mean, I'm not saying you're wrong, I just think you're coming at this from a different point of view. I just don't agree with you, that's all.

The M's have a very good fielding team with the likes of Ichiro, Lopez and Betancourt up the middle, Sexson at first and Beltre at third, and even Ibanez is pretty good -- he might not have the arm of Jose Guillen, but where Jose Guillen fails, he succeeds, and that is the ability to actually catch the ball -- I still remember that homer that Ibanez took back last year...one of the best catches I've seen by a Mariner that ISN'T Ichiro in a LONG TIME. I don't see why people rag on the M's defense...IMHO it's the best in the West, and one of the best in the AL. By that standard going from the A's to the M's, staying in the same league and going to a team with Ichiro in center field and a very good defense, Zito would actually have more success.

With Ibanez having hit a career high 33 homers last year, if Jose Guillen gets back to normal and performs like he did with the Angels there's another 25 homers, even if Richie only hit another 25 and Beltre only improved his average and hit 15-20, the M's would still be one of the better teams in the league with Zito heading the staff. From what I've seen, with the style and flair and youth of Betancourt and Lopez up the middle, they represent one of the best young double play combos in the game today.

I'm not even being as hopeful as I could be about this, this is just what anyone would expect of these players with the way they have played in the past few years IMHO.

So I guess I'm still left wondering why you're so down on the idea of Zito as an Ace...better than Felix, and more realistic than anyone else available on the Free Agent market right now.

[rsox]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Realisticly speaking there are only a few bonafied aces in the league. guys like Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and maybe Roy Oswalt.

Whether or not Zito is a #1 or #2 or worse is a matter of opinion. All of those statistics posted are all well and good for arguments sake but the bottem line is Zito wins games. 39 games over .500 for his career, at least 200 innings 6 straight seasons and has won at least 14 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Thats pretty damn good.

[dalnet22]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Realisticly speaking there are only a few bonafied aces in the league. guys like Johan Santana, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and maybe Roy Oswalt.

Whether or not Zito is a #1 or #2 or worse is a matter of opinion. All of those statistics posted are all well and good for arguments sake but the bottem line is Zito wins games. 39 games over .500 for his career, at least 200 innings 6 straight seasons and has won at least 14 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. Thats pretty damn good.

If you're talking about Mark Mulder or Tim Hudson's career stats, would you include their dominant years with the A's? To say Tim Hudson has a career 3.53 ERA would be foolish because his previous three years have been HORRIBLE at best. And by horrible, I'm talking about ridiculously bad k/bb ratios and hits allowed. But, because he has a 3.53 career ERA and 119 wins, he's still a #1 or #2? Hudson before 2004 and after 2004 are two different pitchers, and I think we should treat them as such. The same goes for Mulder and Zito.

If you're talking about the career stats of Barry Zito, I think you should include the years after he modified his mechanics, which was three years ago.

2004: 11-11, 1.39 whip, 4.48 era
2005: 14-13, 1.20 whip, 3.86 era
2006: 16-10, 1.40 whip, 3.83 era

In this league, those are fair numbers for a guy who's never taken his team to a World Series. Considering Mulder and Hudson have flopped in the NL, I'm curious to know what makes Zito so promising. To say his ERA has dropped and his wins have increased since 2004 say more about his team's offense and defense.

And finally, at the end of the day, even if you're comfortable with these mediocre numbers, is this worth $65 million?

[Coug00]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

And finally, at the end of the day, even if you're comfortable with these mediocre numbers, is this worth $65 million?

Bingo. Its not that I wouldn't mind having Zito on the M's staff, its that I mind the years and salary he's commanding. That's a Mike Hampton contract waiting to happen.

And the M's would be better served with GB pitchers (a la Batista and Ramirez). I hate the Ramirez trade because Soriano is worth more, however to Billidiot Bavasi's credit Ramirez is the perfect pitcher for the M's infield (as long as he stays healthy).

Zito is a flyball/popup pitcher. The M's should go after a pitcher who pitches to their strengths, which is why I'm fine with signing Suppan for 3 years.

[Stoud]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Bingo. Its not that I wouldn't mind having Zito on the M's staff, its that I mind the years and salary he's commanding. That's a Mike Hampton contract waiting to happen.

And the M's would be better served with GB pitchers (a la Batista and Ramirez). I hate the Ramirez trade because Soriano is worth more, however to Billidiot Bavasi's credit Ramirez is the perfect pitcher for the M's infield (as long as he stays healthy).

Zito is a flyball/popup pitcher. The M's should go after a pitcher who pitches to their strengths, which is why I'm fine with signing Suppan for 3 years.

I wouldn't mind that, but let me ask a question concerning the length and size of the contract...

Was Jose Guillen worth $5.5 mil for one season w/ an option for $9 mil in year two? No, not really. Prices are out of control, nobody is debating that, but what does that have to do with the M's or anyone else signing him? You act as if they have a limited budget...an M's budget is more of an "unnecessary goal" than a "must conform to it" budget....As for the years...so he'll be abot 35 at the end of his contract? That would THEN make him an aging pitcher...

I just don't get how Zito staying in the same league where he's seen such success and signing to a big contract would be such a bad thing -- if it gets to be too much and perhaps he doesn't perform as well as we want, we trade him...the problem? You think his contract will be too big? If things continue on the train they are currently on, by the end of his contract he will have what is probably considered to be a cheap contract...sadly enough...but there would be no reason for a team to shy away from trading for him, unless for some odd reason he got injured or busted entirely on the M's....but you take the same exact chance with any player....

...is the argument then that if you're taking the same chance, why not pay less over a smaller amount of time? That'd be nice if you could get anyone young and decent enough to sign to a contract like that...Suppan has about as many teams eyeing him as Zito, and the M's have just as good of a chance with him as they do with Zito...

I'd honestly be happy with either, happier with Zito, and satisfied with what they currently have.

I just think you guys aren't giving anyone a chance...I mean, I feel like I'm discussing this with the most pessimistic people on the planet, to be honest. :P

[Coug00]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I wouldn't mind that, but let me ask a question concerning the length and size of the contract...

Was Jose Guillen worth $5.5 mil for one season w/ an option for $9 mil in year two? No, not really. Prices are out of control, nobody is debating that, but what does that have to do with the M's or anyone else signing him? You act as if they have a limited budget...an M's budget is more of an "unnecessary goal" than a "must conform to it" budget....As for the years...so he'll be abot 35 at the end of his contract? That would THEN make him an aging pitcher...

I just don't get how Zito staying in the same league where he's seen such success and signing to a big contract would be such a bad thing -- if it gets to be too much and perhaps he doesn't perform as well as we want, we trade him...the problem? You think his contract will be too big? If things continue on the train they are currently on, by the end of his contract he will have what is probably considered to be a cheap contract...sadly enough...but there would be no reason for a team to shy away from trading for him, unless for some odd reason he got injured or busted entirely on the M's....but you take the same exact chance with any player....

...is the argument then that if you're taking the same chance, why not pay less over a smaller amount of time? That'd be nice if you could get anyone young and decent enough to sign to a contract like that...Suppan has about as many teams eyeing him as Zito, and the M's have just as good of a chance with him as they do with Zito...

I'd honestly be happy with either, happier with Zito, and satisfied with what they currently have.

I just think you guys aren't giving anyone a chance...I mean, I feel like I'm discussing this with the most pessimistic people on the planet, to be honest. :P

I don't even know where to start. I'm not being pessimistic...I just don't see any value whatsoever in signing Zito to a big money, long term contract. And the M's do have a limited payroll...$95 million. They're approximately $5 million under. For years they've said they'd break it if necessary, yet they never did (which is why Lou left).

I also see the M's having a legit opportunity to contend in the West next year...there isn't a team that's head and shoulders above the rest. 90 wins may take the West. This team also has decent potential for future success. I don't want Zito and Washburn eating up $25 million a year hampering the team's success. I'd be happy with a mid level pitcher who isn't so over valued.

Zito started his decline at age 25. He's a curveball pitcher and they notoriously burn out early. Try to name five successful curveball pitchers who had sustained, consistent succes for 10 years or more? He's already thrown a ton of pitches in his career. Not a good combo.

[Sedihawk2K5]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I don't even know where to start. I'm not being pessimistic...I just don't see any value whatsoever in signing Zito to a big money, long term contract. And the M's do have a limited payroll...$95 million. They're approximately $5 million under. For years they've said they'd break it if necessary, yet they never did (which is why Lou left).

I also see the M's having a legit opportunity to contend in the West next year...there isn't a team that's head and shoulders above the rest. 90 wins may take the West. This team also has decent potential for future success. I don't want Zito and Washburn eating up $25 million a year hampering the team's success. I'd be happy with a mid level pitcher who isn't so over valued.

Zito started his decline at age 25. He's a curveball pitcher and they notoriously burn out early. Try to name five successful curveball pitchers who had sustained, consistent succes for 10 years or more? He's already thrown a ton of pitches in his career. Not a good combo.

The hard thing for M's fans like me to swallow is that they toe the hard-line stance of payroll always being 50% of revenues, even though they are a top-4 revenue team in baseball, year in and year out. They won't go past that number, at least not with this current regime. The reality is they could pay Zito whatever he wants and still turn a great profit next year by just extending that line a little bit, and for once they are actually considering it if you believe the stories this week.

I don't argue that Zito wouldn't make the M's better. He certainly would, and he'd be the opening day starter. He's been successful at staying healthy and never missing starts, and in reality I think a lefty fly-ball pitcher could do well in Safeco when you think of all the fly balls to left-center that Ichiro would run down, time and again! And, maybe most of all, in this current market? Given the $55 million for Meche, the $40+ million for Lilly, maybe Zito truly is worth the money? The rotation would be 5-deep, and looking at the St. Louis model? It could work.

But we'll see if it's legit, or if we're being played the stooge by Boras (and there's ALWAYS a stooge, be it Tom Hicks or the usual "mystery" team that always seems to be in it for his clients!).

[sroz39]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I think Zito would do well in Seattle. Pitcher's ballpark, thicker air, solid defence behind him. Maybe not 65mil well, but if that's the rate and I'm the M's, I find a way to do it.

[dalnet22]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I think Zito would do well in Seattle. Pitcher's ballpark, thicker air, solid defence behind him. Maybe not 65mil well, but if that's the rate and I'm the M's, I find a way to do it.

One way is to stop giving average pitchers ace-type contracts.

[sroz39]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

One way is to stop giving average pitchers ace-type contracts.

You and I both know that ain't gonna happen, so all I'm saying is if the going rate for Zito is 65 mil over 5 or 6 years, I think the Mariners would do well to sign that contract. Who knows, maybe in a couple of years that deal will look like a bargain if salaries continue to escalate.

Here in Toronto, the A.J. Burnett deal was looked at as way too high for a .500 pitcher with huge upside. In one short year, that deal is looking like a bargain (5 years, 55 million) when compared to Lilly (oh man, I pity you Cubs fans. You'll see. We'll talk again in August) or even Gil Meche.

[dalnet22]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

You and I both know that ain't gonna happen, so all I'm saying is if the going rate for Zito is 65 mil over 5 or 6 years, I think the Mariners would do well to sign that contract. Who knows, maybe in a couple of years that deal will look like a bargain if salaries continue to escalate.

Here in Toronto, the A.J. Burnett deal was looked at as way too high for a .500 pitcher with huge upside. In one short year, that deal is looking like a bargain (5 years, 55 million) when compared to Lilly (oh man, I pity you Cubs fans. You'll see. We'll talk again in August) or even Gil Meche.

The difference is 40 million to the Cubs is chump change. The Mariners are almost over budget with scrubs like Washburn and Beltre wasting their time.

[Stoud]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I've heard that the M's are also looking at Brian Lawrence now -- not sure about their seriousness there, but given the market it could be an option. Why even mention this? Well, they say that even at 80% health right now, Lawrence has regained a lot of his confidence and his cutter is looking like a cutter again. They say he's looking like that 16 game winner again, and if that's the case then whoever gets him could be getting the deal of a lifetime in this market.

There's always a chance that it doesn't work out, even moreso with Lawrence, but the M's could save so much money on Lawrence that they could spend it on something else they might need and/or want.

Either way, I'd be happy with our team as it is if Felix wasn't the Ace, which will probably end up happening anyways. I'll admit that even at this point Zito is a bit of a pipe dream, but I would LOVE to have someone who's actually had success as an ace in this league pitching for the M's in the #1 spot, allowing Felix to take a #2 or 3 spot and have a chance at real success for once. Either way, the M's seem set on boulstering their rotation as much as possible, and I'd say they have 6 starter-type guys as it is with Jake Woods and Baek, but Woods really would be better as a reliever. I would kind of like to see what Baek can do with his 4-1 record last year, so like I said, even without another rotation guy I'd be happy with what we have, even though it appears the M's just don't want to chance it, and are going to get another starter come hell or high water.

[dalnet22]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

I've heard that the M's are also looking at Brian Lawrence now -- not sure about their seriousness there, but given the market it could be an option. Why even mention this? Well, they say that even at 80% health right now, Lawrence has regained a lot of his confidence and his cutter is looking like a cutter again. They say he's looking like that 16 game winner again, and if that's the case then whoever gets him could be getting the deal of a lifetime in this market.

There's always a chance that it doesn't work out, even moreso with Lawrence, but the M's could save so much money on Lawrence that they could spend it on something else they might need and/or want.

Either way, I'd be happy with our team as it is if Felix wasn't the Ace, which will probably end up happening anyways. I'll admit that even at this point Zito is a bit of a pipe dream, but I would LOVE to have someone who's actually had success as an ace in this league pitching for the M's in the #1 spot, allowing Felix to take a #2 or 3 spot and have a chance at real success for once. Either way, the M's seem set on boulstering their rotation as much as possible, and I'd say they have 6 starter-type guys as it is with Jake Woods and Baek, but Woods really would be better as a reliever. I would kind of like to see what Baek can do with his 4-1 record last year, so like I said, even without another rotation guy I'd be happy with what we have, even though it appears the M's just don't want to chance it, and are going to get another starter come hell or high water.

Lawrence is a groundballer who could be a quality starter for cheap in Seattle. If I was a Mariner fan, I would be much more excited about him than Zito.

[keRplunK]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Zito is a pretty solid pitcher, but I wouldn't give him anymore than 25 million over 3 years.

It's time for the Mariners to lose games, fire Bavasi and Hargrove and hope a few of the young hitters develop (Jones, and Clement). After the Snelling trade and the Washburn contract it's pretty clear he's a slightly better baseball version of Isiah Thomas.

[rsox]

Re: Mariners Meet With Zito

Anyone who watched the Angels in the '90s could tell you that Bavasi is a terrible GM and i can't figure out why Seattle thought he could help them. Bavasi and Hargrove will be on the hot seat this coming season so unless the Mariners make it to the playoffs neither should be around this time next year.