Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Pedro had injury rather than performance issues; Jones was a pumpkin after age 30 (his 2008 season with the Dodgers might be one of the worst ever considering what he was paid). A better pitcher analogy might be, I don't know, Tim Lincecum?

As for longevity, Jones had 11 consecutive 3+ fWAR seasons. Debuting when you're a teenager like Jones and falling off in your early 30s isn't really all that different from debuting in your 20s and falling off in your mid-to-late 30s. Had he aged even somewhat gracefully and not fallen off the cliff, he's an easy no-doubter, but not being able to hang around as a useful regular combined with getting most of his value from his glove will keep him out.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Pedro had injury rather than performance issues; Jones was a pumpkin after age 30 (his 2008 season with the Dodgers might be one of the worst ever considering what he was paid). A better pitcher analogy might be, I don't know, Tim Lincecum?

As for longevity, Jones had 11 consecutive 3+ fWAR seasons. Debuting when you're a teenager like Jones and falling off in your early 30s isn't really all that different from debuting in your 20s and falling off in your mid-to-late 30s. Had he aged even somewhat gracefully and not fallen off the cliff, he's an easy no-doubter, but not being able to hang around as a useful regular combined with getting most of his value from his glove will keep him out.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. I think I'd probably put him in, but if he'd aged a little less suddenly it would be a no brainer imo.

[Speedy]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

fWAR? You need to teach me Sabermetrics terms Chip.

I get WAR but I don't understand why there's so many different calculations.

...but that's a topic for another thread, I guess.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

fWAR? You need to teach me Sabermetrics terms Chip.

I get WAR but I don't understand why there's so many different calculations.

...but that's a topic for another thread, I guess.

It's pretty quick. fWAR is FanGraphs WAR, bWAR is Baseball-Reference WAR.

For pitchers, fWAR uses FIP. It evaluates pitchers based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. For hitters, fWAR just calculates defense a little differently (I don't know what baseball reference does to be honest but the numbers seem weird).

For pitchers, bWAR uses ERA. For hitters, again, the defensive numbers seem weird.

I strongly prefer fWAR, I never look at bWAR. Everyone wants to have their own WAR calculations but none have really approached fWAR yet imo. It's based off of the best calculations out there, mostly from The Book, by Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman, two of the best baseball statisticians ever, among others

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Bobby Abreu and Andruw Jones are interesting to compare. According to FG, Abreu provided about 3 or 4 times as much "offense" value over the course of his career (to put it another way, 129 wRC+ to 111 wRC+ or .378 wOBA to .352 wOBA) and a decent edge in BsR, too.

But to say that the gap in defensive value between them is enormous is an enormous understatement. So much so that Andruw Jones has about 8 more career fWAR than Abreu despite the big disadvantage with the offensive value.

I would say definite no to Abreu for the HoF (though he has a case for 1st ballot/inner circle HoVG). I would stupidly like for Andruw Jones to have 500 HR for me to put him in, but his case will be an interesting one given the issues some of you guys have brought up already (somewhat unusual aging curve, reputation as being "lazy," so much of his value coming on defense).


Speaking of guys with significant value attributed to defense, what does everyone think about Scott Rolen's case? He goes up for the 2018 HoF balloting.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

One of my favorite Blue Jays of all time. Probably my favorite Blue Jay to watch, ever (I didn't get to watch Alomar). Including Donaldson this year. The 20 run defensive years are accurate.

Easy HOFer too. A 9 WAR season, a few highly elite seasons sprinkled in, 70 WAR, all-around excellent player. Hilarious Blue Jays commercials. He was good until the end, too. He was league averageish until 37!

[Speedy]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Easy HOF? Scott Rolen?

[redsrule]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I'd put Rolen in without question.

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[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Easy HOF? Scott Rolen?

What's the argument against him? Not all of his value came from his defense, he was good on offense too, not that defense is any less valuable than offense. One of the most consistently high-quality players of his time.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Easy HOF? Scott Rolen?

Objectively, absolutely. In fact, the case for Rolen is somewhat similar to Jones: amazing defense, good-but-not-great hitting, respectable peak. Their careers actually completely overlap (1996-2012), so there's no quantity advantage at either end. Jones was the better defender since awesome CF defense is more valuable than awesome 3B defense, but Rolen was a better hitter.

He's another under-the-radar guy who didn't get as much hype as he should have and it will probably keep him out. He suffers from the double-whammy of having a lot of his value tied to great defense at an ignored position in the HOF (3B).

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Objectively, absolutely. In fact, the case for Rolen is somewhat similar to Jones: amazing defense, good-but-not-great hitting, respectable peak. Their careers actually completely overlap (1996-2012), so there's no quantity advantage at either end. Jones was the better defender since awesome CF defense is more valuable than awesome 3B defense, but Rolen was a better hitter.

He's another under-the-radar guy who didn't get as much hype as he should have and it will probably keep him out. He suffers from the double-whammy of having a lot of his value tied to great defense at an ignored position in the HOF (3B).

I was thinking this but didn't say it for some reason. They're pretty similar style players, tbh.

[Speedy]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Objectively, absolutely. In fact, the case for Rolen is somewhat similar to Jones: amazing defense, good-but-not-great hitting, respectable peak. Their careers actually completely overlap (1996-2012), so there's no quantity advantage at either end. Jones was the better defender since awesome CF defense is more valuable than awesome 3B defense, but Rolen was a better hitter.

He's another under-the-radar guy who didn't get as much hype as he should have and it will probably keep him out. He suffers from the double-whammy of having a lot of his value tied to great defense at an ignored position in the HOF (3B).

I never thought Biggio would've been a first ballot so can be presumed Rolen will have a good shot, especially being it's 3B; maybe it's me but I never thought of Rolen and him being THE BEST in his day, you know?

Check out this link from Fangraphs though; shows he's 9th on the all-time list of career WAR for 3B (Chipper is 5th).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...st=0&players=0


It will certainly be an interesting ballot.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I never thought Biggio would've been a first ballot so can be presumed Rolen will have a good shot, especially being it's 3B; maybe it's me but I never thought of Rolen and him being THE BEST in his day, you know?

Check out this link from Fangraphs though; shows he's 9th on the all-time list of career WAR for 3B (Chipper is 5th).

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...st=0&players=0


It will certainly be an interesting ballot.

It's more like a 3-way tie for 7th, tbh. The two guys ahead of him played in more games (not enough to give them "longevity" but enough to affect WAR numbers considering it's a decimal difference between the three).

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Biggio wasn't a first-ballot inductee; he got in on his 3rd try.

Biggio had 3,000 hits, was a face-of-the-franchise guy, and finished top 10 in MVP voting three times, so he had advantages Rolen doesn't have.

[Speedy]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Oh, I'm sorry...you're right about Biggio not being a 1st ballot.

I would put Rolen ahead of Biggio to be frank; I think Rolen had much more of an impact than Biggio, evidenced by Rolen's 5+ career WAR above Biggio in three less seasons.