How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

[55]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

800-900 HR's.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

Yeah, that would basically require A-Rod to maintain his current production well into his mid-to-late 40s.

Not happening.

[SPTO]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

740 HRs is what I predict. At age 35 things start to happen to sluggers and A-Rod is not the typical slugger as his HRs seem to be spaced out quite a bit. Add the fact that he tends to struggle mightily when he's approaching a milestone as well.

[Starlin4Prez]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

Yeah I hontestly don't see him breaking it...maybe because I don't want him to but just looking at his numbers and his age, it doesn't seem as plausible anymore.

It has already been well documented that since 2007, he has been on a steady decline and his production has been diminishing. He's on pace to suffer his lowest home run total since 1997 and he's already 35. So say he does break the record and hits 30 home runs a season. He would have continue that for 5 1/2 more years. Till hes 40! The odds of him maintaining full health and that production (assuming he's clean) is pretty slim. Them hands start to slow down quickly as you get older.

[CMH]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

He needs to decline really hard to not do it. He has 7 years left on his deal and really won't need to average too many homeruns a season to get there. Most power hitters struggle to get back to 30 once they hit 35. But they don't struggle to get to 20 a season.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

He needs to decline really hard to not do it. He has 7 years left on his deal and really won't need to average too many homeruns a season to get there. Most power hitters struggle to get back to 30 once they hit 35. But they don't struggle to get to 20 a season.

Yep. I think PECOTA's off on this one.

Assuming he hits 27 HRs this year like ZiPs predicts him to, he'll have to average about 20 HRs a year until the end of his contract in order to break the record.

He's more than capable of that.

[Sportsforever]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

Yep. I think PECOTA's off on this one.

Assuming he hits 27 HRs this year like ZiPs predicts him to, he'll have to average about 20 HRs a year until the end of his contract in order to break the record.

He's more than capable of that.

It will be interesting to see if he can maintain a level that justifies playing full time 7 years from now. He is 35 and assuming he's not taking anything un-natural he could fall off a cliff in 2-3 years. I'm not going to be surprised at all if he finishes in the 700-725 range.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

It will be interesting to see if he can maintain a level that justifies playing full time 7 years from now. He is 35 and assuming he's not taking anything un-natural he could fall off a cliff in 2-3 years. I'm not going to be surprised at all if he finishes in the 700-725 range.

He could possibly break down at 700ish, but A-Rod is way too good of a player to fall off the cliff.

This will basically come down to whether or not A-Rod really wants the record. He'll get it if he tries, barring the 700ish injury that I already alluded to.

[CMH]

Re: How many Homers do you think A-rod will end his career with?

I think what you'll see with Alex is a declining average and a bit of a declining OBP as a result of that declining average. His power numbers will be down because he'll have less hits, but he'll still be strong and a dangerous bat in a lineup.

There is many a hitter that is not capable of putting bat on ball consistently that can hit twenty homeruns over the course of a full season. For Alex Rodriguez to be incapable of doing so would mean he fell off more than a cliff.

I think his most telling years will be once he hits 40. How many homeruns a year does he hit in the next five years? If he can sneak in a few more than 20 and get into that 25 range, then it makes his fourties easier. If he falls a bit short in the next five years, he won't make it.

Really, it's a testament to Hank Aaron's ability to remain consistent; and for Barry Bonds, it's having one anomaly of a season that allowed him to surpass Aaron.