Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

[lonewolf371]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

The thing about it for me is Kemp can hit for power, average and steal bases. Hamilton however can not steal bases.

-Hamilton is older and more injury prone.
-Kemp is faster and is younger.
-Both out roughly the same offensive production. Yes Hamilton beats Kemp here but we are not comparing Hamilton to Joe Schmoe, we are comparing him to an MVP caliber player.

I think the heat and the ballparks are a silly argument. Good hitters will hit no matter where they play. Adrian Gonzalez put up amazing numbers every year being a left handed power hitter in Petco.

The numbers might be a little better or worse depending on the stadium you play in, but nothing that would dictate who is a better player. I would even go to argue that if Hamilton and Kemp both played in Petco their numbers would still only be slightly different.

Stealing bases is less important than just being a good base runner. A guy that consistently gets to home from 2nd on a single is more valuable on the base paths than a guy that has a 75% success rate with steals. Hamilton is a fine base runner; he's about as good as or better than Kemp in that department.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Umm, a place like Petco has ruined a few guys careers offensively. Just look at Brian Giles.

While I do agree numbers will go down, in the case of Giles he was 33 years old and on the decline of his career when he came to the Padres and he still had a few very good seasons.

Or Ryan Klesko or Phil Nevin, etc. The list goes on. The power alleys there are where flyballs go to die. The heavy marine air at night in particular makes it so the ball just doesn't carry well.

It's not as much as one would think. The numbers wont drop from a 40 year home run hitter to a 20 home run hitter.

Klesko was 33 years old when Petco opened and he was very injury plagued through his last few seasons at Petco. From age 32-36 Klesko only played in 61% of his games and clearly was out of gas. It's not fair to justify that Petco ruined his career when he was well past his prime in the declining years of his career and was injury plagued.

You can't even make a case for Phil Nevin since he only played 1 full season in Petco and that was actually his 3rd best home run season ever and he was 33 years old at this time. At the age of 34 Nevin was traded half way through the season to Texas where he put up just about the same exact home run ratio as he put up in Petco.

I don't think anyone is suggesting Hamilton would suck in another ballpark (and if they are, they should stop). But there's no denying he hits in a traditionally very hitter-friendly ballpark, and the heat is a big part of that (the ball travels much better through warm air). He's not going to become a scrub, but you would be very likely to see the power numbers come down a bit.

I also don't think comparing career stats is fair, at all. Josh Hamilton, because of his off-field problems, didn't make the big leagues until he was 26. Kemp was 21 when he got the call. Kemp's development occurred in the majors, and his early career (as good as it was) is still going to drag his stats down a bit. Hamilton came up already nearing his prime years. If you are talking about who is the better player, what happened 4 years ago to a now-27 year-old player isn't particularly relevant.

Also, going just by this season is too small of a sample size. Before Hamilton's 4 hr game 8 days ago, Kemp has a higher batting avg. this year by 30 points, a higher OBP by 53 points, a higher slg by 129 points, 2 more hr, and 1 fewer rbi. And he destroyed Hamilton last year. So if you're going to focus on the last 8 games, and ignore the previous 191, then yeah, Hamilton is better. But if you're going to take those 191 games into consideration, then Kemp has been the better player. And that's ignoring his basestealing, age, injury concerns, lineup protection, and ballpark factors. That's just based on pure offensive stats.

I agree his power numbers could go down, but I think people over estimate how much impact a stadium has on a player. You have to remember you only play half of your games at home.

Adrian Gonzalez hit majority of his home runs on away games. He averaged 32.2 home runs a year while at Petco.

This brings me back to my point. Good hitters will produce. Hamilton would near the same offensive production given the Rangers played in Petco. His home runs could go down very slightly, he would still be the same hitter he is today.

Brian Giles made some adjustments that some others have failed to make (Ryan Ludwick, Ryan Klesko). His power numbers dropped, but he was relatively still productive until his knee became a bigger problem in his last season. Nevin had very good 2004 season, however how much were Nevin, Klesko, and Giles's game were because of PED's?

However, yes PETCO Park suppresses offense. Just look at Adrian Gonzalez, he was able to relax more at the plate instead of having to be the guy to hit home runs all the time to do any damage, and his batting average went up and he arguably had his best season ever. Chase Headley is another example and year-in and year-out he always has drastic home/road splits.

This is a very good point and worth re-reading

Stealing bases is less important than just being a good base runner. A guy that consistently gets to home from 2nd on a single is more valuable on the base paths than a guy that has a 75% success rate with steals. Hamilton is a fine base runner; he's about as good as or better than Kemp in that department.

This a good point but nothing that would justify Hamilton > Kemp for on the bases. I would take the guy who has 40 stolen bases over the guy who has 8. Given that offensive production was similar of course.

[bkrich83]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

While I do agree numbers will go down, in the case of Giles he was 33 years old and on the decline of his career when he came to the Padres and he still had a few very good seasons.




It's not as much as one would think. The numbers wont drop from a 40 year home run hitter to a 20 home run hitter.

Klesko was 33 years old when Petco opened and he was very injury plagued through his last few seasons at Petco. From age 32-36 Klesko only played in 61% of his games and clearly was out of gas. It's not fair to justify that Petco ruined his career when he was well past his prime in the declining years of his career and was injury plagued.

You can't even make a case for Phil Nevin since he only played 1 full season in Petco and that was actually his 3rd best home run season ever and he was 33 years old at this time. At the age of 34 Nevin was traded half way through the season to Texas where he put up just about the same exact home run ratio as he put up in Petco.



I agree his power numbers could go down, but I think people over estimate how much impact a stadium has on a player. You have to remember you only play half of your games at home.

Adrian Gonzalez hit majority of his home runs on away games. He averaged 32.2 home runs a year while at Petco.

This brings me back to my point. Good hitters will produce. Hamilton would near the same offensive production given the Rangers played in Petco. His home runs could go down very slightly, he would still be the same hitter he is today.



This is a very good point and worth re-reading



This a good point but nothing that would justify Hamilton > Kemp for on the bases. I would take the guy who has 40 stolen bases over the guy who has 8. Given that offensive production was similar of course.

Your vastly underrating the effect Petco had. Age had little to do with the drop offs of those players. You don't see such significant drops in power numbers because a guy got a year older.

Too many times did I see those guys barrel up a ball to see it die in the cold marine air in that ridiculous right center power alley.

God I hate that yard. Waste of tax payer money.

[Coug00]

Your vastly underrating the effect Petco had. Age had little to do with the drop offs of those players. You don't see such significant drops in power numbers because a guy got a year older.

Too many times did I see those guys barrel up a ball to see it die in the cold marine air in that ridiculous right center power alley.

God I hate that yard. Waste of tax payer money.

HR's for LHH at Petco is far and away the single most negatively impacted result from an AB at any stadium in baseball. A LHH HR has a .59 factor at Petco, meaning only 59% of HR's at an average park are HR's at Petco. Then you take Arlington, which is 1.19, literally twice the number of HR's as Petco.

These factors are backed up by massive samples of data and they are simple equations without any sort of bias. There's really no arguing against them. Petco is a beast on lefty power hitters.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Your vastly underrating the effect Petco had. Age had little to do with the drop offs of those players. You don't see such significant drops in power numbers because a guy got a year older.

Too many times did I see those guys barrel up a ball to see it die in the cold marine air in that ridiculous right center power alley.

God I hate that yard. Waste of tax payer money.

How am I underrating the effect Petco had? Klesko played 2 seasons in Petco, both of which were injury plagued.

Nevin had his 3rd best home run year ever in Petco.

Adrian Gonzalez put up an average of 32.2 home runs.

Hamilton would not drop to a 20 home run guy if he played in Petco, same goes for Kemp.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

HR's for LHH at Petco is far and away the single most impacted result from an AB at any stadium in baseball. A LHH HR has a .59 factor at Petco, meaning only 59% of HR's at an average park are HR's at Petco. Then you take Arlington, which is 1.19, literally twice the number of HR's as Petco.

These factors are backed up by massive samples of data and they are simple equations without any sort of bias. There's really no arguing against them. Petco is a beast on lefty power hitters.

This is very true, but as we have seen Adrian Gonzalez do, good hitters will still put up home runs.

As I have said, majority of his home runs came from road games, obviously because other stadiums are much easier to hit the ball out of. I'm not denying that Petco is terrible for power hitters.

A good hitter like Adrian Gonzalez will still put up great power numbers in while playing on the Padres.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Let me clarify what I am stating. Petco park is a terrible hitters park, yes. If a MVP caliber hitter (Braun, Kemp, Hamilton, Pujols, Bautista, Cabrera) was traded to the Padres he would still put up MVP caliber numbers.

Ryan Braun isn't going to go from being Ryan Braun to Chase Headley because of the team he plays on.

[Coug00]

Let me clarify what I am stating. Petco park is a terrible hitters park, yes. If a MVP caliber hitter (Braun, Kemp, Hamilton, Pujols, Bautista, Cabrera) was traded to the Padres he would still put up MVP caliber numbers.

Ryan Braun isn't going to go from being Ryan Braun to Chase Headley because of the team he plays on.

Extremely true statement. The quality of a player doesn't change based on where they play, but their counting statistics do change and so many people are influenced by counting stats, especially the media.

Hamilton hit 32 bombs in 2010. 22 were at home. I already showed the difference between Petco and Rangers BP for LHH HR. If everything else were equal, you could theoretically cut those 22 HR's down to 11. Suddenly, Hamilton has a 21 HR season. He is still the same player, but Petco has crushed how effective he is, at least at hitting the ball out.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Extremely true statement. The quality of a player doesn't change based on where they play, but their counting statistics do change and so many people are influenced by counting stats, especially the media.

Hamilton hit 32 bombs in 2010. 22 were at home. I already showed the difference between Petco and Rangers BP for LHH HR. If everything else were equal, you could theoretically cut those 22 HR's down to 11. Suddenly, Hamilton has a 21 HR season. He is still the same player, but Petco has crushed how effective he is, at least at hitting the ball out.

While this is true, this only applies to 1 of his 5 years in Texas (including this year so far). Every other year his HR ratio is very similar for home and away games.

[Coug00]

While this is true, this only applies to 1 of his 5 years in Texas (including this year so far). Every other year his HR ratio is very similar for home and away games.

He has really only had three seasons where he's played 120 games or more. Ignoring his shortened seasons because there simply isn't adequate data, he would go from an average of 29.7hr/season to 20.5/season. We'd be taking away 27 hr's over those 3 seasons. This is taking park factors down to its simplest form, but it shows how important your home park is.

Hamilton is a hell of a ball player and I'd love if he were Seattle's RF, but there's no way he would ever win an MVP playing for the Padres.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

He has really only had three seasons where he's played 120 games or more. Ignoring his shortened seasons because there simply isn't adequate data, he would go from an average of 29.7hr/season to 20.5/season. We'd be taking away 27 hr's over those 3 seasons. This is taking park factors down to its simplest form, but it shows how important your home park is.

Hamilton is a hell of a ball player and I'd love if he were Seattle's RF, but there's no way he would ever win an MVP playing for the Padres.

This goes to show you his power numbers are not what people think they are.

People probably rate him right there if not better than AGon in terms of power. Yet Hamilton would be around a 20 HR hitter in Petco, while Agon was a 30-40 HR hitter in Petco.

[Coug00]

This goes to show you his power numbers are not what people think they are.

People probably rate him right there if not better than AGon in terms of power. Yet Hamilton would be around a 20 HR hitter in Petco, while Agon was a 30-40 HR hitter in Petco.

Yep, it shows you how important it is to build your team around your ballpark.

But, that 20hr season is a bit skewed since he can't stay healthy. He's only had more than 600 PA's once in his career, which is why I hate counting stats. And Gonzo hasn't missed many games in his career.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

Yep, it shows you how important it is to build your team around your ballpark.

But, that 20hr season is a bit skewed since he can't stay healthy. He's only had more than 600 PA's once in his career, which is why I hate counting stats. And Gonzo hasn't missed many games in his career.

Ya exactly. People over look the importance of healthy players.

[PrettyT11]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

How am I underrating the effect Petco had? Klesko played 2 seasons in Petco, both of which were injury plagued.

Nevin had his 3rd best home run year ever in Petco.

Adrian Gonzalez put up an average of 32.2 home runs.

Hamilton would not drop to a 20 home run guy if he played in Petco, same goes for Kemp.

And of those 32 only 11 of them came at Petco. All it takes is one good look at the numbers to tell there was a huge difference between him hitting at home and on the road. Just by looking at his career splits he has hit 53 more home runs on the road and is slugging 113 points higher on the road.

Or lets take 2008 and 2009 his biggest power years.

In 2008 at home he had a .247 avg 14HR and slugged .433
on the road those numbers are .308 avg 22HR and slugged .578

In 2009 at home he had a .244 avg 12HR and slugged .446
on the road those numbers are .306 avg 28 HR and slugged .643

It is clear to see there is a huge difference between those numbers. You just might be underestimating the effect Petco has on hitters and lefties even more for that matter.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Josh Hamilton vs. Matt Kemp

In 2008 at home he had a .247 avg 14HR and slugged .433
on the road those numbers are .308 avg 22HR and slugged .578

In 2009 at home he had a .244 avg 12HR and slugged .446
on the road those numbers are .306 avg 28 HR and slugged .643

Wow look at the differences in slugging. In 09 the drop off was almost 200 points. That is insane