8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

[Chip Douglass]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Or when a pitcher has a super-low ERA despite mediocre peripherals and you have to explain that he's actually getting really lucky since balls in play are finding gloves more than they should.

A lot of traditional types just don't want to buy into that kind of analysis.

[dubcity]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

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A lot of traditional types just don't want to buy into that kind of analysis.

What makes you say that? If I see a guy starting off the season 4-0, with a 2.00 ERA, but his WHIP is 1.45, I can figure that he's been playing with fire. And it doesn't take a Nate Silver devotee to recognize that streaky players are streaky.

I'll agree with the bit about TV/radio broadcasters being somewhat ignorant, but it's their job to tell a story like that in the moment. If they told everyone to calm down about a 20 game hit streak, people would be flipping the station.

The thing i hate is when home-town broadcasters are such homers that they're always being positive and looking for reasons to bail out players who are playing like crap. Dealt with that for years watching Giants games whenever Zito or (more recently) Lincecum would start. But I digress.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

On a completely different note, I'm looking forward to the Bryce "Greinke isn't that tough" Harper vs. Zack Greinke showdown tonight.

I'll be there in person, so maybe things get interesting and I'll post some photos or something.

[D13]

8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

In baseball nowadays, the ceiling on wins is around 100 or so, give or take a few wins. We're still projected to win something like 91-93 games. I don't view that as disappointing.

And if you strip out sequencing effects, the Dodgers have played like a .600 team this year, or pretty close to the 100 win threshold I just cited. No reason to hit the panic button.

The only thing that can and probably hurt LA is that dreadful pen and contrary to some Dodgers fans you can't throw grienke and Kersaw every game.

Wood is a ok 3 but unreliable and not battle tested. The other 2 guys you throw out there....woof.

And pitching wins in the postseason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Speedy]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

On a completely different note, I'm looking forward to the Bryce "Greinke isn't that tough" Harper vs. Zack Greinke showdown tonight.

I'll be there in person, so maybe things get interesting and I'll post some photos or something.

Would love to see your vantage point, Chip.

[Speedy]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

I can't think of how many times I've seen a broadcast where the PBP guy or the color commentator points out that Player X is on a 20-30 hot streak or something and talks about how he's a completely new player, even though streaks sometimes happen and occasionally, when you flip a coin, you'll have a run of heads or tails.

Or when a player hits an inordinate number of HRs that he never comes close to matching again (Brady Anderson in 1996) and traditional sportswriters assume "steroids!!!", when random variation is the answer.

Or when a team wins a large or small number of one-run games, and traditional sportswriters think that "mental toughness" or lack thereof is the key ingredient, when random variation is the answer.

There's plenty of basis for my statement. Random stuff happening is probably the single most under-appreciated aspect in life, period.

Or when a pitcher has a super-low ERA despite mediocre peripherals and you have to explain that he's actually getting really lucky since balls in play are finding gloves more than they should.

A lot of traditional types just don't want to buy into that kind of analysis.

I think you're typecasting a lot of folks when it's simply that they don't use the stats -- well, they don't at least in an effective manner; several broadcasters and MLB fans just look at a given player's "old school" stat line and take it at face value to scout a player without reviewing the advanced stats which may tell a different story.

It's rare, when I'm watching the ATL broadcast, to see a Sabermetric stat beyond OPS. They may, once or twice a year, relay Andrelton's DRS but the color guy will dismiss that it doesn't make sense.

Spoiler

I do enjoy Chip Caray and Joe Simpson though; fairly good broadcasters

At least to me, it's like the news...I don't want to hear an opinion as much as I'd like the facts presented to me. I'd be inclined to think more about a player's LD%, K%, BABIP...even FIP if it were discussed more and displayed to represent how good/bad a player is and how they'll forecast.

There is a lot of potential that could be tapped.

[bad_philanthropy]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Jays win ninth in a row.

[SPTO]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Another solid win for the beer league softball team up north (thanks Dallas Braden)

[Chip Douglass]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Would love to see your vantage point, Chip.

Bleh, Harper's not starting. Maybe he'll pinch hit later.

[Jr.]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Starlin Castro making his first MLB appearance at any position other than SS. Just subbed in at 2B

[Speedy]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

I enjoy listening to Jim Kaat.

Sonehow, he modestly describes his career without conceit and in a way that makes perfect sense.

[Majingir]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Jays win 9th in a row! First time EVER they have multiple 9+ game winning streaks in the same season!

Drew 39,000+ fans to see a Tuesday night ballgame vs a team 10+ games below .500. Win and they will come!

[PhilliesFan13]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Phillies lost 13-3 to the Diamonbacks last night and now are down 11-1 in the second inning. That plus losing Maikel Franco after getting hit on the wrist. Ugh.

[LambertandHam]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

Hurdle left Locke in too long...

[SPTO]

Re: 8/3 - 8/16 Game Discussion Thread

I enjoy listening to Jim Kaat.

Sonehow, he modestly describes his career without conceit and in a way that makes perfect sense.

Kaat is the epitome of what a color guy should be. Add some insight, pepper in a couple stories about your career where applicable and let the PBP tell the story without getting too hammy. I didn't know how well the Costas/Kaat combo would turn out but they're almost as good as the old Costas/Kubek duo in the '80s.

Phillies lost 13-3 to the Diamonbacks last night and now are down 11-1 in the second inning. That plus losing Maikel Franco after getting hit on the wrist. Ugh.

Nuts, I was hoping the Phils could continue to play some decent ball and use it as momentum for next year.