2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

[steelerfan]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Astros talking to Marlins about acquiring Realmuto. Marlins want Kyle Tucker in return.

Astros and Marlins are discussing J.T. Realmuto

Here we go again. [emoji38]

[Jr.]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Don't know if it was posted, but...


Ah, nevermind

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Oh my God.

Something happened.

Darvish to the Cubs. 6/126.

I guess Manfred gave them permission to sign him...

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Per @JeffPassan, Darvish’s opt-out comes after the second year of his six-year, $126M deal with #Cubs.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 10, 2018

********

[Cubfan]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

6 year for Darvish is 2 years to many for a guy that’s going to be 32 this year. But I guess that’s to going rate for top line pitchers these days.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Another issue here is that the Cubs don't lose any draft picks to sign Darvish because Yu was traded in-season. Arrieta is gonna cost the team that signs him a draft selection in addition to $100MM+. A nice little added bonus for the Cubs swapping Arrieta out for Darvish.

[jeffy777]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Good news. I think, statistically, Darvish has been a bit ahead of Arrieta in terms of peripherals and projections going forward. This deal has been reported to be 6/126 (up to 150 with incentives) with no trade provisions and opt-outs. I wonder, when the dust settles, how strong of a NTC they gave him and if it is 6 fully guaranteed years or something like 5 + mutual option. I'd imagine the former.

A 6-year deal is a bit long for a guy who turns 32 this summer, but he should be a nice addition to a rotation that was crumbling a bit. Also excited to see what the full-time transition from the AL West to the NL Central will do for him. Minus the postseason, his numbers jumped after the trade to LA last year. He's gonna be facing Tommy Pham, Joey Votto, and Ryan Braun instead of Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Robinson Cano.

Darvish/Lester/Quintana/Hendricks/Chatwood and new coach Jim Hickey should be quite serviceable this season. It's easily the best rotation in the division, and light years better than Milwaukee who is trying to keep up. Puts a lot of pressure on the Brewers to pay Arrieta.

Looking at advanced stats, I'd say Darvish is quite a bit ahead (3.8 vs. 1.9 WAR for instance).

Jake really hasn't been that great since the first half of 2016.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Looking at advanced stats, I'd say Darvish is quite a bit ahead (3.8 vs. 1.9 WAR for instance).

Jake really hasn't been that great since the first half of 2016.

Yeah, Arrieta's Cy Young season was a one-and-done. Then he had the no-hitter against Cincy early the next season, his 2nd one in 9 months, but couldn't sustain it. Not that I'm complaining with how 2016 turned out.

Over the course of their previous 4 seasons: Jake has 18.5 WAR and Darvish has 14.4 WAR. This is using FanGraphs' method and not counting the full year Darvish missed. Or, if you don't count 2015 for either one (Jake's Cy Young season and Darvish's lost season due to TJ), Jake has 11.2 WAR and Darvish has 9.9 WAR since 2014. Last season by itself, Darvish beat Arrieta by about 1 WAR.

My main concerns with Arrieta included the loss of velo (from 94-95 when going good down to 91-92 more often this past season) and especially the innings where he'd totally lose his mechanics and things would spiral on him. I read a stat somewhere that Arrieta had the 8th largest drop in velo this past season. For those reasons, it's a prudent parting of ways with the Cubs.

Even at 50-75% of what he once was, Jake is still a solid #2 SP on most teams. Whereas, Darvish is more of a borderline #1/2 SP. Neither one is quite an ace, imo.

[jeffy777]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Yeah, Arrieta's Cy Young season was a one-and-done. Then he had the no-hitter against Cincy early the next season, his 2nd one in 9 months, but couldn't sustain it. Not that I'm complaining with how 2016 turned out.

Over the course of their previous 4 seasons: Jake has 18.5 WAR and Darvish has 14.4 WAR. This is using FanGraphs' method and not counting the full year Darvish missed. Or, if you don't count 2015 for either one (Jake's Cy Young season and Darvish's lost season due to TJ), Jake has 11.2 WAR and Darvish has 9.9 WAR since 2014. Last season by itself, Darvish beat Arrieta by about 1 WAR.

My main concerns with Arrieta included the loss of velo (from 94-95 when going good down to 91-92 more often this past season) and especially the innings where he'd totally lose his mechanics and things would spiral on him. I read a stat somewhere that Arrieta had the 8th largest drop in velo this past season. For those reasons, it's a prudent parting of ways with the Cubs.

Even at 50-75% of what he once was, Jake is still a solid #2 SP on most teams. Whereas, Darvish is more of a borderline #1/2 SP. Neither one is quite an ace, imo.

Good points. The only thing is Yu beat Jake's WAR last season by almost 2 instead of 1 as you said (3.8 vs 1.9).

The loss of velo is pretty susbtantial, so you make a great point there as well.

I could see Jake rebounding if he can hone in his mechanics (once again), but as it is now, I see Yu as quite a big upgrade.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Good points. The only thing is Yu beat Jake's WAR last season by almost 2 instead of 1 as you said (3.8 vs 1.9).

The loss of velo is pretty susbtantial, so you make a great point there as well.

I could see Jake rebounding if he can hone in his mechanics (once again), but as it is now, I see Yu as quite a big upgrade.

I was quoting numbers from FanGraphs...Arrieta had 2.4 WAR and Darvish had 3.5 WAR last year.

Curious to see where Jake ends up. And I agree that all things considered, I'd rather have Darvish than Arrieta.

[jeffy777]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I was quoting numbers from FanGraphs...Arrieta had 2.4 WAR and Darvish had 3.5 WAR last year.

Curious to see where Jake ends up. And I agree that all things considered, I'd rather have Darvish than Arrieta.

Ahh, I got my numbers from BR.

Definitely curious where Jake lands too. As a Cubs fan, I really don't want to see him in a Brewers uniform because I do love the guy and always will after the WS win. I still haven't gotten used to seeing Fowler as a Cardinal, but I'll always love that dude as well.

[decga]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I always have envisioned Arrieta in a Braves uni. The difference between Arrieta and Darvish is that Arrieta was the driving force in a team winning a World Series. Darvish not so much! He didn't do it Texas or LA.

[hvegasooner]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Darvish is a huge get for the Cubs. But I’m also asking where Arrieta will end up. I agree with everyone’s opinions About this


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[Jr.]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I always have envisioned Arrieta in a Braves uni. The difference between Arrieta and Darvish is that Arrieta was the driving force in a team winning a World Series. Darvish not so much! He didn't do it Texas or LA.

Arrieta wasn't the driving force in the cubs world series

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I always have envisioned Arrieta in a Braves uni. The difference between Arrieta and Darvish is that Arrieta was the driving force in a team winning a World Series. Darvish not so much! He didn't do it Texas or LA.

Mike Trout hasn't been the driving force for a team winning the World Series either. He didn't do it in LA!