2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

[KingOfLanglade]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I am, at this point, bewildered by the Jake Arrieta Market. With the Twins/Brewers poised to take that proverbial next step, I am stunned neither has ponied up 9 figures. I would expect 5 years at a higher AAV than Darvish gets the deal done. I also would assume an opt out after 2 years is in the cards given the way this Hot Stove is trending. Would love to get the folks in this thread on the record for their Arrieta landing spot.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[SPTO]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I am, at this point, bewildered by the Jake Arrieta Market. With the Twins/Brewers poised to take that proverbial next step, I am stunned neither has ponied up 9 figures. I would expect 5 years at a higher AAV than Darvish gets the deal done. I also would assume an opt out after 2 years is in the cards given the way this Hot Stove is trending. Would love to get the folks in this thread on the record for their Arrieta landing spot.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

You got to wonder if front offices' proprietary analysis has Arreta completely falling off a cliff or if he wants a long term deal whereas they'd rather go short term with him.

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Man, I wouldn't go near Arrieta unless it was an extremely short deal (1 or 2 years).

Maybe some team will offer 4 years/100M with 60M in the first 2 years and an opt out after year 2 and 3.

[KingOfLanglade]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

You got to wonder if front offices' proprietary analysis has Arreta completely falling off a cliff or if he wants a long term deal whereas they'd rather go short term with him.

Couldn’t agree more. I just really want to know what they see, other than the obvious velo dip. Sure the FIP was higher, but the walks dropped per 9. Only 1k MLB Innings on that arm to boot... gosh, I would be dipping into that BAMTech Money if I thought my team was an ace away.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[KingOfLanglade]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Man, I wouldn't go near Arrieta unless it was an extremely short deal (1 or 2 years).

Maybe some team will offer 4 years/100M with 60M in the first 2 years and an opt out after year 2 and 3.

Can I ask why?


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[Master Live 013]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Can I ask why?


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

Sure. Arrieta seems to have peaked 2 years ago and it is now a good pitcher who wishes to get paid for the guy he was. He has only pitched more than 200 innings once in his career and he is 31 (32 in March).

K%/FIP/xFIP/SIERRA are trending the wrong way.

Plus I'm just a risk adverse individual.

[TheMatrix31]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Really sucks that JD went to Boston. Ugh.

The baseball fan in me though loves the ramping up of Yankees/Red Sox again. I mean I always love it, and think their constant exposure and televising of their games is justified but it's going to be even better hopefully.

[BleacherBum2310]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Sure. Arrieta seems to have peaked 2 years ago and it is now a good pitcher who wishes to get paid for the guy he was. He has only pitched more than 200 innings once in his career and he is 31 (32 in March).

K%/FIP/xFIP/SIERRA are trending the wrong way.

Plus I'm just a risk adverse individual.

I'd be fine going 3 years. He's still a good pitcher. that type of deal lowers the risk for me w/some upside still left.

I just hope he goes to the AL lol.

[franch1se]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Eric Hosmer will #30 in SD to honor the late Yordano Ventura

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Eric Hosmer will #30 in SD to honor the late Yordano Ventura

And they are shifting Wil Myers to RF (Where he is the most comfortable). Not ruling out LF, but looks to be the everyday Rightfielder for now.

[KingOfLanglade]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Sure. Arrieta seems to have peaked 2 years ago and it is now a good pitcher who wishes to get paid for the guy he was. He has only pitched more than 200 innings once in his career and he is 31 (32 in March).

K%/FIP/xFIP/SIERRA are trending the wrong way.

Plus I'm just a risk adverse individual.

All very valid claims. My counter would be, obviously the potential of positive regression. Not to mention the MLB Mileage being just north of 1k IP on th right arm. Walk rate did drop this year which was encouraging also. My main selling point is October. 52 2/3 innings of baseball at a 3 ERA with a robust 11 K/9 in the Post.

Love Bleacher Bums idea of a 3 year deal. Would even love to get more creative with opt outs the first two years with 25 mil per on both. Then dropping to 20 for the final 3.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[franch1se]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

And they are shifting Wil Myers to RF (Where he is the most comfortable). Not ruling out LF, but looks to be the everyday Rightfielder for now.

While his speed plays better in RF, I think I'd rather have Renfroe's cannon out there

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I am, at this point, bewildered by the Jake Arrieta Market. With the Twins/Brewers poised to take that proverbial next step, I am stunned neither has ponied up 9 figures. I would expect 5 years at a higher AAV than Darvish gets the deal done. I also would assume an opt out after 2 years is in the cards given the way this Hot Stove is trending. Would love to get the folks in this thread on the record for their Arrieta landing spot.

There are a few teams that make sense for Arrieta: Brewers, Orioles, Mariners, Cardinals, Nationals, Rockies.

I think Minnesota's acquisition of Odorizzi takes them out of the big boy market. Don't seem them making 2 power moves as that's not a Twins thing to do, dontchaknow?

Philly would be an interesting option given they signed Carlos Santana and a rotation including Nola and Arrieta would make them interesting, but I doubt they want to forfeit a draft pick to add a nearly 32-year-old pitcher when they might not be good for 2 more years.

My breakdown of different teams as landing spots for Arrieta...spoilered for length...

Spoiler

Brewers: They surprised everyone last year and just would not die. But, their rotation lacks sizzle. Expecting Jimmy Nelson to come back early on and continue where he left off seems a bit pollyanna-ish to me. They have some serviceable guys, however most of them will probably regress from last year (Chase Anderson, Brent Suter, Zach Davies pitched about as well as I think they are capable--Anderson was particularly lucky on HR/FB and Davies doesn't strike people out). Adding Cain and Yelich doesn't make sense without a guy they can legitimately trot out as a #1 or #2 SP. The Brewers, at least the old regime, enjoyed former Cub players. Aramis Ramirez. Matt Garza. I could see them getting geeked up over Arrieta. They could use a T.O.R. starter moreso than just about anyone in baseball.

Orioles: It seems like their rotation has been bad forever, but they actually might have 4/5 of something serviceable (Gausman, Bundy, Cashner, Tillman). Need that top guy; they've finally realized that Tillman is not that guy. Seems like progress. A playoff run this season might help them keep Machado (or at least make it seem plausible to drive up his trade price). The O's run the risk of becoming irrelevant again with all the Yankees and Red Sox stuff. A Jake Arrieta homecoming would feel good and give them a guy to slug it out with other #1's in the division. With their perpetually overachieving bullpen and a cagey Buck Showalter, they could make noise.

Mariners: They have been collecting high-floor, low-ceiling guys under DiPoto's watch. Felix is not KING Felix anymore, but Paxton/Leake/Felix is not a bad 2/3/4 if they can nab Arrieta. Seems like the M's are always stuck in that chasm between contending and not, but with Cano/Cruz/new CF Dee Gordon to go with a decent selection of other position players, they could use a SP to possibly finish 2nd in the AL West and vie for a Wild Card spot.

Cardinals: It seems like the Cubs and Cardinals have entered a new golden age where they are really potent foes and relative equals. These organizations are both very smart and like to sign each other's sloppy seconds--Heyward and Fowler most recently. Jason Motte has changed hands a couple of times. Peter Bourjos, too? Adding someone like Arrieta would put less pressure on an offense that never seems to be quite good enough (although should be improved this year with Ozuna and another year from Pham) and makes Weaver and Flaherty not need to be relied on too soon. It also provides insurance against Reyes or Wainwright or someone else important goes down. St. Louis always loses one key SP for the season. Using Arrieta 5x against the Cubs and 5x against the Brewers might give the Cards the edge they need to catch up.

Nationals: Why not them? Just when you think they have enough SPs, they sign Max Scherzer to a $200MM deal, so I could see it. With Eaton/Turner healthy again, they'll be making a push to win something finally and possibly keep Harper from walking. New skipper Dave Martinez knows Jake well as Martinez was Maddon's bench coach in Chicago. How many starts does Mike Rizzo really want Edwin Jackson to make? lol. When you think about it, that's what it really boils down to. Although, they might see a better value in Lance Lynn.

Rockies: One of the darling teams of 2017 as the NL West got off to an historically great start, but cooled off and and backed into the Wild Card game where Jon Gray was skull-****** by Arizona. That rotation looks a lot better with everyone pushed down a peg. Arrieta's stuff can play in the thin air if anyone's can. What good does that suped-up bullpen (Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw) do if they can't use 'em? Colorado hasn't made a splashy SP acquisition since....Denny Neagle? Mike Hampton? It might be time for them to pay Scott Boras.

Nutshell: I think Arrieta to Brewers, Lynn to Washington, Cobb to St. Louis. Arrieta will get at least 4 years, imo.

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

While his speed plays better in RF, I think I'd rather have Renfroe's cannon out there

Unless they move a couple of outfielders he will start the year in RF according to the Padres front office. There is trade speculation around Renfroe right now. Wait and see what happens during spring training I guess.

[KingOfLanglade]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Jon Heyman reporting this morning Phils have active dialogue with Arrieta. Sounds like a 3 year deal is PHI’s Preference.


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports